Europe:  2006/07 Winter Crop Conditions

Summary
Overall,  the 2006/07 winter crops in Europe were successfully planted under good conditions.  However, crops were sown later than normal in many of Europe's eastern countries.   The late planting is the result of a rain-delayed summer harvest.  Some areas of eastern Europe planted grains after the optimal planting window, increasing risk potential.  A mild fall throughout the continent helped accelerate sowings and plant emergence, and in some cases resulted in an over-development of the new crop.  Several news reports state concerns about potential winter damage to these more developed, but more vulnerable plants in France, Germany, and the UK if severe weather arrives.   Seasonably cold weather returned in November, enabling winter crops to harden prior to dormancy.  Colder weather and snow finally ended winter grain planting by late November, but only after the mild autumn had prolonged and extended field activities.

Autumn and early winter temperatures have been above average, but during late December prevailing winds shifted from the cold northeast direction. This change dropped temperatures across the continent, sending the bulk of Europe's winter grains into dormancy.  The cold front spread subfreezing temperatures from Russia to Spain, but the coldest readings were concentrated in and around southern Germany and Poland.  In some of these areas in central Europe, lows in the agricultural areas reached -15°C.  While these temperatures were below normal, they weren't extreme and dormant winter crops can usually tolerate temperatures as low as -20°C.  In addition, snowcover was in place from eastern Europe to eastern France during the cold outbreak, insulating the dormant crop.  

Soil moisture levels (map 1, map 2) at the end of the fall were high in almost all regions of Europe, benefiting planted crops.  The few areas with dryness after fall planting commenced were limited to central Europe, Spain, and France.  Winter snowfall in central Europe (map 1, map 2) has increased potential soil moisture in Poland and Germany.

Poland
While the majority of Europe had beneficially high soil moisture during the fall, conditions were persistently dry in northeastern Europe. The most affected country was Poland, but dryness also affected eastern Germany, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.  The prolonged dry spell began in August and continued until winter crops entered dormancy in late November.  The Polish statistics office (GUS), released a statement on December 16 that referred to the emergence of the 2006/07 crop. The report said that the majority of surface soil moisture was too dry, resulting in unfavorable sowing conditions and poor germination for winter grains and rapeseed. Above average temperatures lasted until mid-November, however, prolonging emergence and benefiting crop growth. Recent snowfall has provided additional soil moisture, as well as protection against cold air intrusions  during the first major cold outbreak in late December when temperatures dropped to -15°C.

Iberia
Contrary to last year when drought dominated, the 2006/07 season started with precipitation in October, the normal start to the rainy season for Spain, Portugal, and southwest France.  In addition, rainfall has often been above-average in many areas during October and November.  This rainfall was critical for enabling fall sowing and replenishing reservoir levels for future irrigation.  However, during December precipitation slackened, furthering the need for future winter precipitation to maintain or increase reservoir holdings.  

Hungary
According to a mid-November report from the FAS office in Budapest, "soil cultivation and winter seeding were delayed by the moist soil and prolonged the corn and sunflower harvest. The production may reach the previous year's level, but unfavorable winter weather may damage the weak green [emerged] crop.  An additional shortcoming for the next crop is the less than adequate use of elite planting seed. According to the Hungarian Seed Producers Association, farms used 50 percent less certified wheat seed this fall than a year ago.  This 'cost saving' approach puts yields and crop quality at risk for the next harvest."  See FAS post report HU5016 for more information.

Local crop condition reports are mixed. According to one farmer association, a bumper winter-grain crop is expected as farmers have managed to complete sowings.  It stated that few plantings were outside the optimal October 10-20th time frame and that plants were growing well.   More recently however, a report by another Hungarian farmer's association stated that heavy snowmelt and rainfall has damaged plantings in eastern areas of the country.

France
The French Agricultural Ministry reported on December 15th that "climatic conditions this fall were favorable for seeding activities and early crop establishment." It also said that farmers planted winter cereals on 6.84 million hectares, up 1.3 percent on the year and 5.2 percent above the five-year average.  The report stated that durum wheat was planted on an estimated 439,000 hectares - the highest level in fifteen years. The cereals office said in mid-December that biofuel demand increased fall-planted rapeseed by 8 percent.

Rainfall tapered off at the end of the year, triggering  dryness concerns that could intensify if additional precipitation doesn't occur.  Precipitation has been particularly scant in the northern and central wheat-growing regions.  During early January rains have helped alleviate some concern, but this situation is being watched closely in France as it comes on the heels of a severe drought that affected the southern areas just last season.

Serbia and Montenegro
Similar to many of its neighboring countries, the Balkan country of Serbia and Montenegro experienced a month-long delay in wheat plantings.  More cloudy days than normal extended the length of the summer growing season while wet fields at harvest extended the time required to cut the summer crop.  Both factors contributed to the late start for the winter crop.  In addition, according to a recent report released by the FAS office in Belgrade (SR6001), unlike last year the Serbian Agriculture Ministry will not provide price support for the 2006/07 wheat crop. The FAS report also stated that "the wheat-planting season was marked by high prices and shortages of chemical fertilizers...Serbian farmers were forced to reduce fertilizer applications."

Early December Precipitation and Soil Moisture
Late December Precipitation and Soil Moisture

Situation after winter planting (early December) by country:

Conditions at the End of Planting:

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on PECAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online. Initial estimates for 2006/07 will be released in May 2006. For the previous Europe update see: Europe: 2005/06 Corn Production Down in the EU, Up in the Balkans.