Russia: Localized Damage Likely to Volga Valley Wheat

A brief episode of bitterly cold weather between January 16 and January 20 likely resulted in damage to winter wheat in parts of the Volga, Central, and Southern Districts.  Minimum temperatures dropped below -30 degrees Celsius for two to three consecutive days in some areas, and ranged from -22 to -30 degrees throughout southern Russia.  Although persistent fall dryness delayed winter-grain planting and hampered crop establishment (see December 15 report), winter crops in Russia were fully dormant when the cold weather arrived and were protected in many areas by adequate insulating snow cover.  But in regions of sustained low temperatures with thin or patchy snow -- which includes parts of the prime winter-wheat territories of Saratov and Volgograd -- soil temperatures likely dropped to levels low enough to cause significant damage to dormant winter crops.

Approximately 70 percent of Russia's winter wheat is grown in areas that were subjected to extremely cold and weather, but the presence of snow cover within most of these areas will reduce the extent of the damage.  For example, snow cover of 5 centimeters (about 2 inches) can protect winter wheat against temperatures as low as minus 25 degrees Celsius.  Rapid assessment of the crop losses resulting from the cold snap is difficult; the full amount of winter damage cannot be determined until crops break dormancy in the spring.  In a typical year, 10 to 15 percent of planted winter grain area fails to survive until spring, due either to persistent fall dryness or severe winter weather, and losses of greater than 15 percent are not uncommon.  Last season, winterkill was unusually low at only 8 percent. 

In Ukraine, meanwhile, temperatures generally stayed above the winter-damage threshold, including in eastern Ukraine where snow cover was patchy.  Snow preceded a second wave of low temperatures that arrived in Ukraine and Russia around January 20, and the snow protected winter crops from subsequent low temperatures.