Europe Winter Weather Highlights

Seasonal Highlights
Autumn-planted crops are expected to have over-wintered well in Europe. While some questions remain about the effects from a colder than normal winter, initial analysis suggests that the vast majority of winter crops, especially hardy winter wheat, should have survived without damage from the cold and sometimes bitter cold that infiltrated eastern and central areas of the continent. The cold weather during February and early March, coupled with persistent late-season snowcover, delayed the resumption of vegetative growth and has made it difficult to ascertain any winter damage. However, with the possible exception of localized areas, weather analysis suggests only normal winter losses are expected. During the later half of winter, Western Europe, including drought ravaged Spain, received a much needed increase in precipitation. Meanwhile countries in eastern Europe continued to run a moisture surplus with heavy amounts of snow and rain saturating soils, creating damaging floods and ice on cropland in Hungary and the Balkans. Finally, looking towards spring, air temperatures have recently increased and the corresponding slow rise in ground temperatures has begun. However, as farmers wait for soils to warm up, the spring planting season has been delayed about two weeks in much of Europe.

Winter Weather Summary
A mild start to the 2005/06 winter season was short-lived. Winter was punctuated by a pair of Siberian air incursions that ushered in some of the lowest temperatures experienced in Europe in years. Once cold air swept in during mid-January, the cold weather pattern persisted until spring. Not surprisingly, January through March temperatures averaged below normal across the continent. For the most part however, damage from the low temperatures [ a.) January cold episode b.) February cold episode ] was prevented by heavy snowcover [ a.)January snowcover map b.)February snowcover map ] which protected the underlying crops. In general, the more vulnerable areas with little or no snowcover were the same areas where temperatures had risen high enough to be above the damage threshold of -15 - -20° C. However some areas will need to be watched further as temperatures in some locations such as the major bread basket region of western Romania, Hungary, northern Serbia had dropped low enough during an absence of snowcover that scattered damage may still have occurred. Another locality that had similarly threatening conditions was eastern Germany, an area with a high concentration of winter rapeseed. Further west in France, the Benelux, UK, and Spain, winter temperatures had moderated enough that field crops are not expected to have incurred freeze damage, but because of the long winter spring growth and spring planting is behind schedule.

During early winter, rainfall was absent in much of western Europe with dryness spreading into the countries of France, Belgium, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. February and early March finally brought increased amounts of precipitation and enhanced soil moisture. During this time, several storm fronts crossed into western Europe, spreading beneficial rain and snow across many western European countries that had seen falling moisture reserves and dwindling soil moisture. The increased precipitation in February and March also improved soil moisture conditions in the moisture-deficient areas of Spain that have experienced well below-average precipitation levels for over a year.

Country Summaries

Poland
Air temperatures reached -30°C in January and fell to below -20°C in February, but Polish crops were insulated under deep snowcover during both the January and February episodes. Nonetheless, fall dryness likely led to poorer than normal establishment conditions, which in turn, may have increased plant vulnerability. This would have left Poland’s crops more susceptible to the extreme temperatures that occurred, but analysis indicates widespread damage is not likely to have occurred. In early March, Poland's Grain Chamber's first estimate agreed; reporting that winter has not caused significant damage and that the snowcover will help moisten the ground. Winter rapeseed typically comprises about 75-80 percent of the Polish oilseeds crop, so depending upon the effects of winter on the somewhat more tender crop, area to spring-sown oilseeds or other summer crops may increase.

Baltics
January temperatures dropped well below -20°C for five consecutive days in the relatively snow-free Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. At its coldest, the temperature dropped below -30°C. While much of the crop area in the Baltic's is planted with spring grain and rapeseed, indications are that frost damage likely occurred on some of the area planted with fall crops. If damage was indeed incurred, fields would likely be replanted with spring varieties of wheat, barley, and rapeseed.

Hungary
During the coldest episodes, Hungary had little to no snowcover protecting its cropland, but temperatures did not reach as low as those recorded in countries farther north. A report released on March 3 by the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service's (FAS) office in Budapest, states that the delayed 2005 summer harvest [due to heavy rains and high grain moisture] delayed winter grains planting. However the mild, late fall enabled farmers to plant 1.1 thousand hectares of wheat (similar to last year), and increase barley area by 10 percent to 188 thousand hectares. Another issue facing Hungary is the unknown effects of a mild and moist December. This led to flooding in early January and then to freezing with significant area under ice.

Germany
Similarly, areas of Germany - particularly eastern Germany - had only shallow snow cover for protection during the coldest periods. Temperatures in Germany however, were not as low as they were in Poland or in the Baltics. Because of the relatively higher temperatures, Germany likely escaped significant damage to winter crops, but localized damage may still have occurred. However, it will not be until crops green-up in April when more information is available on the vegetative health.

Spain
A severe drought has kept reservoir levels very low in central and southern Spain, but recent rainfall has them rising again, along with surface moisture levels. According to an early March release by Spain's Ministry of Environment, Spain's water reserves have risen to over half capacity, but they are still far below the 10-year average. With much of the corn crop irrigated, low reservoir levels and water restrictions are certain to play a major role in Spain's cropping mix.

United Kingdom
The United Kingdom (UK) has not received as much precipitation as continental western Europe and would benefit from increased rainfall. The grain-heavy south-east England area has had only 75 percent of normal precipitation since September 2005. According to a survey released in early March by Britain's farm ministry, UK 2006/07 wheat area has fallen 3.4 percent, rapeseed has fallen 4.5 percent, and barley is marginally up from 2005/06.

France
Temperatures in France and the Low Countries were below normal, but not excessively low for the January through March period. Late winter precipitation enhanced moisture levels in the drying soils. On March 8th, French cereals office ONIC reported 2006/07 soft wheat area up 2 percent, durum wheat area up 6.75 percent, and winter barley area up 2 percent. Meanwhile ONIC projected rye to be down 7 percent, and oats down 3 percent.

Romania
The agriculture-oriented eastern area of Romania (Dobrogea) experienced very cold temperatures during a coinciding snow-free period in January. This area of the country is known for its summer corn and sunflower crops but also produces significant amounts of winter wheat and barley that may have been affected by the cold. Planting in Romania and neighboring Balkan countries during autumn 2005 was was late because of heavy rains and a late summer harvest. Therefore, some plants likely have less than optimal establishment conditions, and some sowing may have gone incomplete.

Serbia and Montenegro
The intensive agricultural region in northern Serbia, Voijvodina, also experienced cold temperatures during a period of no snow cover. However, temperatures in Voijvodina and adjacent areas of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina generally stayed above -20°C, so any freeze damage that may have occurred is likely minimal.

Possible Winter Damage Areas
While winter damage is expected to be minor, the colder than normal winter likely has affected some areas more significantly than others. Any possible winter damage is also likely to be geographically limited and on a localized scale. It would be in areas where temperatures dropped especially low, and/or snowcover was nonexistent. Areas that had experienced conditions most conducive to freeze damage are the Baltics, Romania, Hungary, and eastern Germany, all areas that had cold temperatures and little or no insulating snow. Some of the coldest areas however - the countries of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia - were protected by heavy snowcover. Potential for damage also exists in areas that had suffered from poor establishment conditions during fall - Polish crops were sown into dry fields last autumn, while Balkans crops were planted later than normal because of a late summer harvest. Finally, any damage incurred would most likely have occurred to the more temperature sensitive crops - barley and rapeseed - and on fields planted with lower quality seeds.

Maps showing areas of greater concern. Locations that experienced the coldest weather and the least snowcover: 1) January Map 2) February Map

(View MODIS Satellite Imagery showing snowcover on January 24, 2006 and on February 5, 2006.)

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on PECAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online. Initial estimates for the 2006/07 season will be released on May 12, 2006.