Russia: Wheat Prospects Worse than Average in Volga and Central Districts

The USDA May estimate for 2006/07 Russia wheat production is 42.0 million tons, against 47.7 million last year.  Specialists from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled to Russia's key Southern District in late April to examine winter wheat conditions and to meet with local agricultural officials, grain producers, and independent commodity analysts.  The team observed crops to be in good condition in Krasnodar and southern Rostov territories, with little apparent frost damage resulting from low January temperatures.  Winter wheat was observed to be in fair condition in northern Rostov and western Volgograd territories, and subsequent satellite imagery indicates that winter crops in these regions, and in the Central and Volga Districts, are in worse condition than at the same time last year.  Total wheat yield is estimated at 1.74 tons per hectare, compared to 1.88 tons last year and the 5-year average of 1.85 tons.  High winter-wheat yields in most areas of the Southern District are forecast to compensate to some degree for likely drops in the Central and Volga Districts.  Spring wheat planting is underway and will likely be completed in early June.

Total wheat area is estimated by the USDA at 24.2 million hectares, down 1.2 million from last year.  Winter wheat comprises roughly 40 percent of total wheat area, and 60 percent of production due to typically higher yield.  Preliminary official estimates indicate that sown winter wheat area dropped only about 4 percent from last year's 10.9 million hectares despite persistent fall dryness that reportedly delayed planting and crop establishment in parts of the Southern and Central Districts. Virtually all of the country's winter wheat is grown in European Russia.  The Southern District (including Krasnodar, Stavropol, Rostov, and Volgograd territories) accounts for about half of the winter wheat output, and the Volga and Central Districts for about one-fourth each.  Spring wheat is grown in the Siberian District (nearly 50 percent), the Volga District (about 30 percent), and the Ural District (15 percent). 

Vegetative indices (NDVI) from the SPOT-Veg satellite sensor indicate that winter crop conditions were likely considerably worse than last year as of May 20 in the Volga and southern Central Districts.  These regions together account for about half of Russia's winter wheat area and over 80 percent of the country's rye.  Winter grains are in poor condition also in Volgograd oblast, an important winter wheat territory in the northern tier of the Southern District.  The poor crop conditions are attributed chiefly to severe winter weather:  temperatures throughout European Russia plunged in mid-January, when snow cover was thin or patchy in many key winter wheat regions.  Winter crops in Krasnodar, Stavropol, and southern Rostov territories, however, largely escaped significant frost damage.  SovEcon, an independent commodity analysis group in Moscow, estimates winter-crop losses at 18 to 19 percent, against approximately 6 percent last year and average losses of 13 percent over the past ten years.  SovEcon, citing official data, reports that losses are highest in the Volga District (31 to 32 percent of sown area) and Central District (25 to 27 percent), and relatively low in the Southern District (5 to 6 percent). 

Barley production for 2006/07 is estimated at 16.5 million tons, up from 15.8 million last year due to a 4-percent increase in area, to an estimated 9.5 million hectares.  Spring barley comprises 90 percent of total barley production in Russia.  The planting of early spring grains (including barley) got off to a slow start this season, but the pace accelerated during May.  As of May 22, farms of all categories had planted 22.2 million hectares of spring grains compared to 21.6 million by the same date last year.  Virtually all of the country's winter barley is grown in the southern portion of the Southern District, and farmers reported little damage to winter barley fields despite the cold January weather and the crop's relatively low resistance to low temperatures. 

Corn production is estimated at 3.3 million tons (compared to 3.2 million last year), and area at 0.90 (0.85) million hectares.  As of May 22, 0.84 million hectares had been sown against the target of 1.1 to 1.2 million.  Last year, planted area fell about 10 percent short of the target of 0.98 million hectares.  As in Ukraine, most corn in Russia is grown for feed, and commodity analysts do not expect the heightened global interest in ethanol production to result in an increase in corn area in Russia in the near future. 

The USDA estimates 2006/07 Russia oat production at 4.60 million tons (against 4.55 million in 2005/06) from 3.50 (3.35) million hectares, rye production at 3.0 (3.6) million tons from 2.00 (2.35) million hectares, millet production at 0.80 (0.45) million tons from 0.80 (0.50) million hectares, and milled rice production at 0.380 (0.375) million tons from 0.140 (0.145) million hectares.  Total grain production (including 2.3 million tons of pulses, buckwheat, and miscellaneous grains) is estimated at 73.1 million tons, down 5.0 million from last year. 

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on PECAD’s Agricultural Production page, or at PSD Online.