Canada Rapeseed Update

The USDA July currently forecasts an increase in production of Canada's 2006/07 rapeseed crop to 8.10 million tons, up from 7.60 million tons last month, but down from last year's record production. While yield has remained unchanged from last month, estimated production has increased due to an increase in planted area. Since the initial planting intentions survey conducted by Statistics Canada in April 2006, farmers have increased their planting intentions due to the potential for improved canola prices. Currently, yield is forecast at 1.59 tons per hectare, which is below last year's record of 1.83, but above the five-year average yield of 1.49 tons per hectare. Favorable weather early this growing season has contributed to the above-average yield forecast. The major canola producing provinces are Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba, which account for 42, 36, and 21 percent, respectively, of Canada's total canola production. These three provinces are highly agricultural, producing the majority of Canada's wheat, barley, oat and sunflower seed crops as well. The fertility of the Canadian Prairies contributes to Canada being the world's largest producer and exporter of rapeseed. Last year Canada produced a record 9.66 million tons of canola and exported 4.9 million tons, five times more than the second-largest exporter. As of July 9, canola in Saskatechewan was rated 76 percent fair to excellent condition (down from 83 percent on June 26) and was 86 percent at or ahead of normal development.  As of July 6, canola in Alberta was rated 71 percent good to excellent condition (down from 85 percent on June 22) and crops were one week ahead of development compared to this time last year.  As of July 10, Manitoba canola fields range from flowering in the southwest to pod-filling in the east.

Canada has experienced a very good start to this year's growing season, with mostly seasonal temperatures and ample moisture throughout the canola-growing Prairie provinces. After withstanding the last few years of inopportune weather, most Canadian farmers are experiencing the best start to their crops in many years, according to the June 22 Alberta Crop Report. As shown in the figure below, most of the agricultural regions of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan were in the 100 - 200 percentile of normal seasonal precipitation since the start of the summer growing season. Southern Manitoba was slightly drier, in the 75 - 100 percentile. Normal June temperatures throughout the canola-growing prairies have further aided field operations and crop development.

The dry conditions and hot temperatures in early July have caused some crop stress, particularly in southern Saskatechwan and southern Manitoba. The map below shows percent soil moisture between 20 - 50 percent in southern Manitoba, where dryness is becoming more serious.

Because soils in southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are becoming dryer due to the lack of rain since late June, yields are vulnerable should dryness continue. The danger of falling yields is especially large in southern Manitoba. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting very little rain through July 26 in the southern the Prairie Provinces, but it is forecasting slightly more rain the following weeks (July 24 through August 6).

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on PECAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.