Australia Rapeseed Production Slips Away

Dry conditions Reduce Crop Area
Dry conditions throughout Australia’s grain growing regions have reduced production potential of the 2006/07 rapeseed crop. Production is lower due to a forecast lower area. Area is forecast to decrease from last year, as a result of inadequate rainfall during the important weeks leading up to the optimal rapeseed planting period.

Rainfall Below Normal
Significant area reductions are anticipated in all states, most appreciably in Western Australia (WA) which produces 17 percent of the total crop. The largest producing state of New South Wales (NSW) produces 34 percent of the total crop has less than half of normal rainfall amounts for the month of May. Sowing of Australia’s rapeseed crop typically takes place during May and into June. Rainfall during this period is highly valued for winter grains as it has a significant impact on area sown and plant establishment. Even with additional rainfall, the opportunities for an average rapeseed has diminished as the sowing window for rapeseed has closed. The last major drop in rapeseed area occurred in 2005, also a result of very dry conditions, particularly in the east.

Satellite Imagery Reveals Reduced Crop Area
Drought conditions have affected the rapeseed area of all states. MODIS Satellite imagery of eastern Australia shows a 2006 season lagging behind 2005 which had a delayed start as a result of lack of rainfall.

Current forecast
Australia's 2006/07 rapeseed production is forecast at 1.25 million tons, down 0.5 million or 29 percent from last month and down 0.19 million or 13 percent from last year. The area forecast is 0.95 million hectares, down 0.35 million or 27 percent from last month and down 0.01 million hectares or 1 percent from last year. The yield forecast of 1.32 tons per hectare is below last year and equivalent to the five-year average excluding the severe drought of 2002.

Australia: Rapeseed Background Information
Rapeseed, also called canola, is an important oilseed crop in Australia. Rapeseed is grown as a "winter" crop (autumn-winter-spring), often in rotation with wheat. Production is concentrated chiefly within the southern sections of the wheat belt. The eastern portion of the wheat belt stretches in a curve, inland from the Dividing Range, from central Queensland through New South Wales, Victoria, and southern South Australia. The western portion of the wheat belt continues around the south west area of Western Australia. Rapeseed area of the past five seasons (2001/02 - 2005/06) has averaged 1.23 million hectares, producing 1.45 million tons, with a national yield of 118 kilograms per hectare.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on PECAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.