Australia Wheat Down Under

Dry Conditions Reduce Crop Size
Dry conditions throughout Australia’s grain growing regions have reduced production potential of the 2006/07 wheat crop.  Production is forecast to decrease from last year due to a revised lower area. Area is forecast lower this season, as a result of inadequate rainfall during the Australian summer and fall seasons thereby limiting sown area and crop establishment. Significant area reductions are anticipated in all states, most appreciably in Western Australia (WA).

Rainfall Below Normal
Most winter grain regions recorded below average rainfall during the Australian summer. The opportunities for an average wheat area have diminished as the dry conditions persisted into the normal sowing. Wheat areas of Australia received only 50 percent of normal precipitation for the critical sowing period May to June. Additional rainfall is needed to avoid yield loss. The last major drop in production occurred in 2002, also a result of very dry conditions, particularly in the east.

Satellite Imagery Indicates Reduced Crop Area
Drought conditions have affected the wheat belt of all states. MODIS Satellite imagery shows drastic reduction in planted area and delays occurring in 2006 as compared to 2005 for the largest producing state Western Australia accounting for 36 percent of national crop.

Forecast Revised Lower
The 2006/07 Australia wheat production is forecast at 21.5 million tons in July, down 2.5 million or 10 percent from last month, and down 2.0 or 8 percent from last year.  The area forecast is 11.5 million hectares, down 1.3 million or 10 percent from last month, and down 3.0 million or 12 percent from last year. The yield forecast is 1.87 tons per hectare.  This yield is below the five-year average excluding the severe drought of 2002.

Australia: Wheat Background Information
Wheat is Australia’s most important crop, with a seasonal gross value approaching 3 billion Australian dollars. Australian wheat is a major competitor with US wheat exports. Wheat is grown as a "winter" crop (autumn-winter-spring), often in rotation with pasture. Wheat production is concentrated on the mainland in a narrow crescent known as the "wheat belt." The eastern portion of the wheat belt stretches in a curve, inland from the Dividing Range, from central Queensland through New South Wales, Victoria, and southern South Australia. The western portion of the wheat belt continues around the southwestern area of Western Australia. Wheat planted area the past five seasons (2001/02 - 2005/06) has averaged 12.4 million hectares, producing 21.5 million tons, with a national yield of 1.87 kilograms per hectare.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on PECAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.