Bulgaria 2006/07 Crop Production
2006/07 Winter Grains (Wheat and Barley)
USDA’s October wheat estimate for Bulgaria is 3.1 million tons, similar to 2005/06 and just above the five-year average of 3.0 million tons. Yield is estimated at 3.3 tons per hectare, compared to last year’s 3.1 tons per hectare, and the five-year average of 3.2 tons per hectare. Barley production is estimated at 520,000 tons from 180,000 hectares. This year's estimated yield of 2.89 tons per hectare is above last year’s 2.5 tons per hectare and above the 2.68 ton per hectare five-year average. The 2006/07 barley area dropped significantly, from 240,000 hectares last year to 180,000 hectares this year because of winterkill and unfavorable, heavy spring rains. Because of spring's late arrival, the crop calendar was pushed backwards causing winter grain harvesting to last until the first week of August.
Winter grains are more suitable than summer crops to Bulgaria and the Balkan climate. Moisture is typically more plentiful during the cooler months, giving winter grains a more reliable source of moisture. Their earlier harvest also helps prevent yield losses from summer heat and dryness. Autumn-planted crops however, do have their own weather challenges. Low winter temperatures and spring floods are the biggest dangers to Bulgaria's winter wheat and winter barley crop (Bulgaria produces very little spring wheat or spring barley). Additionally, rain during fall planting can critically delay plant development, making the crop more vulnerable to winterkill, while rain at harvest can quickly diminish grain quality. Bulgaria’s wheat production is primarily comprised of feed quality wheat, however, it has considerable export demand and Bulgaria has direct access to the Black Sea. When the country joins the European Union (EU) in 2007, most of its production will likely not meet EU bread-making standards for intervention wheat.
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2006/07 Summer Crops (Corn and Sunflower)
Bulgaria's corn production is estimated by USDA at 1.2 million tons from 330,000 hectares (October estimate). This year’s estimated 3.64 tons per hectare yield is below the last two years' bumper crops (4.33 tons per hectare and 4.29 tons per hectare), but above the five-year average of 3.44 tons per hectare. USDA’s October sunflowerseed estimate is a record 900,000 tons from a record 650,000 hectares. While 1.38 tons per hectare is not a record yield, it is above the average.
During crop travel in mid-August, it was observed that the most well developed summer crops were in the North-Central region near Pleven, which had the most summer rainfall. The crops in the Eastern Region, which includes Dobrich, were doing moderately well but dryness and heat had been detrimental to yields, likely leading to just a near-average crop. It was reported (but not seen during travel) that the crops in the far North-West region were in good condition. The southern areas of Bulgaria’s grain belt (roughly between Burgass and Plovdiv), showed significant signs that dryness and heat had reduced yields. While this area is typically Bulgaria’s lowest yielding region, local farmers confirmed that this season's crops were worse than normal.
 Pictures Taken During Crop Travel,
Mid-August 2006
Sample of Corn Ears Collected in Bulgaria
Sample of Corn Ears Collected in Bulgaria
Sample of Corn Ears Collected in Bulgaria
Sample of Corn Ears Collected in Bulgaria
Heat and Dryness Stressed Corn
Cornfield in Good Condition
Cornfields; Top:Weedy, Bottom: Wild Boar Damage
Corn
Summer rainfall and temperatures in the Balkans can be highly variable, leading to inconsistent yields for spring-sown crops. Corn is particularly vulnerable to Bulgaria’s continental summer, with its periods of potentially damaging heat and dryness. Without irrigation, corn production is risky because of its high water dependence and its sensitivity to heat and dryness during the silking stage in July. Early varieties, while typically lower yielding, are popular because the heat and dryness is more likely to appear later in Bulgaria’s summer, after their critical development period. The 2006/07 season began late with a rainy, cool March and April, followed by warm weather in May, dry conditions in June, and continued dryness along with excessive heat in July. Field observations during August revealed that nearby or even adjacent corn fields were at very different stages of development. The remarkable differences in field conditions are primarily due to the overall summer rainfall pattern, which was scattered and very localized. Planting dates, soils, hybrids, and farming techniques also contributed to field variations. Crops in Bulgaria are seldom irrigated due to farms' financial constraints. A big factor preventing investment in irrigation technology is the potential theft of expensive equipment. This risk would require investors to incur additional costs to employ and maintain a security staff and system.
Sunflowerseed
The other major summer crop in Bulgaria is sunflowerseed. Sunflower area has increased in the past two years due to its relatively high profitability and low requirement of inputs. Demand for oilseeds in the EU has also been high and likely will continue to bolster sunflower prices as more rapeseed goes toward biodiesel production. Sunflower's hardiness and its dryness tolerance make it suitable to Bulgaria’s climate, but planted area is severely restricted because of the crop's susceptibility to disease and pests. Its frequency in the crop rotation is not recommended to exceed more than once every five years because lower yields are common when this threshold is pushed, but this is not always a powerful enough disincentive to prevent the practice. Farmers sometimes plant sunflower every three years. One Bulgarian farmer estimated that for each year that sunflower is planted after sunflower, a 0.5 yield reduction can be expected. In Bulgaria, a mix of local and international varieties of sunflower are grown, with premium international seeds showing obviously better results. Low cost seeds are sometimes selected for sowing when planting conditions are not ideal. One producer who was visited by USDA's FAS team stated that he had used cheaper, local seeds because he sowed them before the risk of frost had ended.
Biofuel
In Bulgaria, as in the rest of Europe, biofuels remain a hot topic within the agricultural community. Biodiesel, primarily made from rapeseed in the EU, is probably not viable in Bulgaria because its climate is too harsh for the relatively delicate rapeseed plant. Neither sunflowerseeds nor soybeans are preferable alternatives for biodiesel. Sunflower presents additional processing problems while soybeans are not produced in significant quantities and they are desired more for their meal than their oil. Unlike biodiesel produced in EU's northern member states, ethanol production from corn is well suited for the Balkans. With the recent EU decision to increase corn standards for intervention purchases, ethanol production is becoming a more attractive alternative for the Balkan countries. Corn is produced in large quantities and one ethanol processing facility already exists in Bulgaria. Corn prices are more attractive in the ethanol market because biofuel producers are shopping for starch content, not for expensive grains with high nutritional value. Ethanol producers can also avoid the highest prices by purchasing corn during harvest when prices are likely the lowest and store the surplus until it is needed, or by using less efficient grains such as wheat when corn prices are high.
For further information please see the FAS-Sofia reports on Biofuels and the Grain and Feed Update. The USDA's November crop estimates will be released on Thursday, November 9th.
Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on PECAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.
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