South Africa’s Wheat Crop Falls Short of Domestic Demand

USDA's October estimate for South Africa's 2006/07 wheat production is 2.19 million tons, up 140,000 tons from last month and up 304,000 from last year.  Wheat area is estimated at 770,000 hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 30,000 hectares from last year.  Record wheat yields of 2.84 tons per hectare are forecasted due to good seasonal rainfall in the major wheat regions of Free State and Western Cape provinces, but total wheat production will again fall short of domestic demand (see Figure 1).  South Africa’s wheat crop is planted in May/June and will be harvested in November/December. 

Figure 1.  South Africa's Wheat Production Compared to Domestic Consumptive Use

Seasonal rainfall was above average this year in both the Western Cape and Free State provinces, where approximately two-thirds of the wheat crop is produced and approximately one-third of total wheat output is produced in each province.  In addition, dryland farming dominates these two major wheat producing areas where less than one percent of the wheat area is irrigated in Western Cape and only six percent of the wheat area is irrigated in Free State.  Smaller amounts of wheat are also grown in other provinces where it is mostly irrigated and accounts for another third of total wheat production.  Total irrigated wheat area therefore accounts for approximately 17 percent of total wheat area.

Historically, South Africa’s wheat yields and quality have varied widely due to unsteady and erratic rainfall, especially in the southwestern part of the Western Cape where the major Swartland and Rûens wheat regions are located north of Cape Town and near the south coast, respectively (see Figure 2).   The Western Cape region sows spring wheat cultivars in the autumn, which do not require the same amount of cold to break their dormancy as that of the winter wheat cultivars grown in the rest of South Africa.  In the Free State, both winter and facultative (or intermediate) wheat varieites are commonly planted in the autumn and harvested in November/December.

Before 1990, South Africa produced a surplus of wheat during very good rainfall years and shortages of wheat during the majority of years (see Figure 1).  However, wheat area has steadily decreased since 1989 which has caused South Africa to import wheat on an annual basis.  For the past three years, South Africa has imported a total of 830,000 to 1.35 million tons of wheat per year from Argentina, United States, Australia, Canada, and various European countries. 

Figure 2. Good seasonal rainfall in Rûens wheat and barley region

Barley

USDA's October estimate for South Africa's 2006/07 barley production is 260,000 tons, unchanged from last month and up 28,000 tons from last year.  Barley area is estimated at 90,000 hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 2,000 hectares from last year.  Yields are forecasted at 2.9 tons per hectare this year due to favorable seasonal rainfall and these yields will be close to the record yield of 3.0 set in 1989. 

Approximately two-thirds of South Africa's barley crop is produced in the Western Cape Province, where it is mainly produced under dryland conditions (see Figure 2) and is primarily grown for malt in brewing beer.  However, low quality or unsuitable malting barley is used as animal feed, especially during a drought when poor yields reduce quality.  In addition, barley production has not met South Africa’ domestic demand for the past ten years and for the past three years South Africa has imported its barley shortfall from Canada, United States, Denmark, and France. 

Current USDA area, production, import, and export estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at PSD Online.

Other Related Links

South Africa GAIN Report (9/29/2006)

South Africa's Wheat Yields Near Average (from PECAD-10/13/2004)

Dry Conditions for South Afric's Wheat Crop (from PECAD-8/3/2003)

Dryland and Irrigated Wheat Estimates in South Africa

Crop Explorer for Southern Africa