December 14, 2007

2007 Crop Tour Report for Niger, Burkina Faso, and Ethiopia

A mid-season crop assessment tour for Niger, Burkina Faso, and Ethiopia was conducted by personnel from USDA’s Office of Global Analysis (OGA) and USAID's FEWS-NET project from September 10 to October 3, 2007. The general crop conditions and field observations within these countries are summarized below.

Niger (September 10-15, 2007) and Burkina Faso (September 20, 2007)

The crop assessment tour for Niger was from September 10-15, 2007, and only one day was spent in the field in Burkina Faso, on September 20, 2007. Figure 1 shows the crop tour route in Niger and Burkina Faso and approximately 1575 and 200 digital photos were taken in Niger and Burkina Faso, respectively.

Niger and Burkina Faso Crop Assessment Route

Figure 1. 2007 Niger and Burkina Faso Crop Assessment Route

The dominate crop grown in Niger is millet and the millet crop stage ranged from vegetative to grain-filling, with over 70 percent of the crop beyond the flowering stage. A few regions in the south (near Gaya, Niger) had started to harvest millet but harvested millet was only a small percentage (approximately 1 or 2 percent) of the total crop. USDA's current 2007/08 estimate for grains (millet and sorghum) in Niger is 4.0 million tons, which is the same as last year's record crop. This is the third consecutive year for Niger to have an above-average harvest.

For Burkina Faso, crop conditions were also average to above-average and USDA's current 2007/08 estimate for grains (corn, millet, and sorghum) is 3.9 million tons. This is the third consecutive year for Burkina Faso to have an above-average harvest. The dominate crop grown in Burkina Faso is sorghum (approximately 1.8 million tons) and sorghum crop stage ranged from vegetative to grain-filling, with more than 80 percent of the crop beyond the flowering stage. USDA's 2007/08 estimate for paddy rice in Burkina Faso is 100,000 tons, and rice is also grown along river banks and within irrigation schemes.

Ethiopia (September 23 – October 3, 2007)

The crop assessment in Ethiopia was conducted from September 23-October 3, 2007, and Figure 2 shows the northern and southern routes from Addis Ababa. During the crop assessment tour, over 2400 digital photos were taken.

Ethiopia Crop Assessment Route

Figure 2. 2007 Ethiopia Crop Assessment Route

Crops such as teff, wheat, and barley were planted in June/July during the meher season (June-December) and most these fields were in the grain filling stages, with some fields in certain regions starting to harvest. Conditions were favorable for farmers to plant this year due to favorable belg (March-August) and meher rains, high local cereal prices, and improved seed availability from last year’s bumper harvest.

For the current meher season, the keremt (June-October) rains arrived timely and were well distributed during the growing season in most regions visited. Long-cycle corn and sorghum crops were observed to range from flowering to grain filling stages in the low altitude regions, with corn being harvested near the southern Awasa corn belt. Meher harvest prospects for sorghum and corn were above-average, assuming normal rainfall for the rest of the meher season. Farmers also reported that corn seeds were readily available this year but fertilizers were expensive and limited in supply.

Nearly two dozen farmers were randomly interviewed and farmers were asked questions about grain yields from the recent belg harvest; when and which meher crops did they plant; when they expected to harvest this year’s meher crop; what are expected yields of the current meher crop; did current meher crops experience any pest or disease problems; were seeds and fertilizers readily available; how are prices and local markets; etc..

In general, farmers reported good belg harvests for regions with a belg season and most farmers throughout the country reported they expected this year’s meher harvest to be nearly as good or better than the past two years. The only caveat was some farmers expressed their hope for less rain during October so that the mature crops would not be damaged by excessive rainfall. However, crop conditions in general were average to above-average at the end of September and meher harvest prospects for Ethiopia were expected to be above-average.

USDA's current 2007/08 forecast for small grains (wheat and barley) in Ethiopia is 5.8 million tons, up 300,000 tons from last year's record crop. USDA's 2007/08 coarse grains (corn, millet, sorghum) forecast is 8.7 million tons, down 250,000 tons from last year's record crop. This is the third consecutive year for Ethiopia to have above-average grain harvests.

Elevation and Agriculture

Elevation is a critical component in Ethiopian agriculture with sorghum and corn grown in the lower to mid-altitudes; teff and wheat grown in the higher altitude regions; and barley and oats being grown at the highest altitudes of more than 3000 meters (see Figure 3 and "crop _thermal_zones.pdf" document for references). Elevation also determines if certain regions have one or two growing seasons, and Length of Growing Periods (LGP) also vary in lowland and highland regions. In addition, highland regions tend to have more rainfall and longer LGP, where intricate relay planting patterns can be practiced. Due to these agronomic complexities caused by elevation, an elevation mask, as shown in Figure 4, can help to identify where warm-season and cold-season crops are grow within Ethiopia.

Crop Adaptation to Elevation in Ethiopia

Figure 3. Crop Adaptation to Elevation in Ethiopia

Corn Elevation Mask in Ethiopian Highlands

Figure 4. An elevation mask helps to identify major corn regions in Ethiopia because corn does not grow in high altitude regions greater than 2400-meters.

The participants were also pleased to witness new tarmac road construction within Ethiopia’s major grain belt located near the Arsi and Bale Mountains, as shown below in Figure 5. The worst road conditions experienced during the entire transect were located in this region, even though the Arsi/Bale grain belt is one of the most productive regions in the country. New tarmac roads along this important grain belt should help to improve food market access for one of Ethiopia’s most productive agricultural regions.

Tarmac roads under construction