Link: Skip banner
Commodity Intelligence Report
July 3, 2008

Favorable Soil Moisture Brings Encouraging Early Prospects For European Corn

 

Seasonal precipitation is very good across all of Europe

After one of the worst droughts in recent years, the corn crop in southeastern Europe is expected to rebound sharply in 2008/09.  Corn planting in Europe has finished and plants are emerged with 4 - 8 leaves (Hanway Growth Stage Model).  The crop has experienced favorable conditions throughout Europe because of average to above-average rainfall and mild spring temperatures.  Soil moisture has been sufficient, and is significantly higher than at this time last year, boosting early yield expectations.  While total EU corn production includes significant contributions by the intensely irrigated leaders, France and Italy, it is the largely un-irrigated Balkan countries that swing EU corn production. So far, their precipitation totals have resulted in favorable soil moisture conditions.  As of USDA's June release, EU corn production for 2008/09 is estimated to be 56.1 million tons, slightly above the 55.7 million ton five-year average, and 7.7 million tons or 16 percent higher than in 2007/08. At this early stage in its development, however, considerable variability remains, dependent upon upcoming weather.  Currently, the biggest weather concern in Europe is two-month dryness in non-corn areas of Germany and Poland.

Graph showing EU corn production comparison:  Projected 2008/09 is much higher than 2007/08 due primarily to expected better weather after last season's drought.

Last year, corn production dropped drastically in several large producing nations in and around the Balkan Peninsula, including Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and non-EU member-state Serbia.  The 2007/08 Balkan crop was decimated by severe drought accompanied by record heat; Both variables rapidly depleted soil moisture.  More specifically, Romania typically produces over 8.3 million tons of corn, or more than double last year’s production level.  Romania’s 3.9 million ton 2007/08 harvest was a record low in almost fifty years of USDA data.  Bulgaria suffered the most in relative terms. A normal corn harvest in Bulgaria averages about 1.3 million tons; however, last year’s crop yield was just over 300,000 tons, its lowest on record.  Hungary, a country that recently overwhelmed EU intervention silos with its surplus corn stock, was almost solely responsible for the EU’s decision to phase out corn intervention.  Their corn production, which had surpassed 8.0 million tons for three consecutive years, dropped to just 4.0 million in 2007/08.  Production in Serbia, including its northern region of Voijvodina, which is known for its rich soils, is expected to rebound after last year’s disappointing 4.1 million ton crop.


Corn Production Trends:

EU Total Southeast EU Non-Member States

As of the USDA’s June release, EU corn production is estimated at 56.1 million tons, which includes 8.0 million in Romania, 1.4 million in Bulgaria, and 8.0 million in Hungary.  Leading producer France is estimated to harvest 12.5 million tons, while Italy is estimated to bring in 10.0 million.  Other producers include Germany with 3.6 million tons, Spain at 2.8 million, Poland at 1.8 million, Austria at 1.7 million, and Greece at 1.6 million. Non-EU member state Serbia is estimated to harvest 6.5 million tons and Croatia is estimated to produce 2.4 million.

Click on the following links to view projected 2008/09 corn production by member state, or estimated 2007/08 corn production by state, or to view both charts simultaneously.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains, rice, cotton, and oilseeds are available on the International Production Assessment Division (IPAD)'s agricultural production page or at PSD Online.   For more agricultural related weather information, query IPAD's Crop Explorer.

For more information contact Bryan Purcell | bryan.purcell@usda.gov | (202) 690-0138
USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis

Close Window
Top