Morocco And Algeria Start 2009/10 Season With Widespread, Abundant Rainfall;
Tunisia Struggles With Precipitation Deficit

Situation Summary:

The total 2009/10 winter wheat and barley crop in Northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) is well positioned to become a bumper or even record crop.  The three-country region is normally a consistent, large import market for grain; however, if the region continues receiving favorably wet weather this spring, its imports could be dramatically reduced.

Northwest Africa: Current Situation
Currently crops are in a semi-dormant stage. During the fall 2009/10 winter grains planting season, precipitation has been much above average in Morocco and Algeria. In addition, rainfall has continued to be above normal into January.  Increased autumn precipitation always bodes well for farmers in Northwest Africa because the lack of soil moisture is the primary limiting factor for area and yield gains in the region.  Because of the large fluctuations in fall precipitation amounts, large swings in planted area occur.  During drier autumns, production risks are often too high, persuading farmers to forgo planting on dry lands, while early season rainfall influences farmers to plant more crops.  They are more willing to take the financial risk of investing in crop production after there is already sufficient planting moisture. Achieving an established crop by January is part one of a two part season. 

Northwest Africa's Limiting Geography and Climate
The climate of Northwest Africa is harsh for cereal production. Crop cultivation is restricted to land near the coast and to areas on higher, rain-inducing plateaus. At its widest extent, the growing area (including pastures), stretches only about two to three hundred kilometers inland. This limiting situation has prompted government to search for options that would allow farmers to diversify into more drought tolerant agriculture, such as tree crops.  The three-country Northwest Africa region of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, also referred to as the Maghreb, is often short on rainfall, and when the rainfall does arrive, it often comes too late.  In addition, the air is usually extremely dry and temperatures are very high, which increases evaporation rates and decreases soil moisture levels.  During late spring, Sirocco winds that originate in the Sahara Desert can suddenly bring even hotter and drier air to the fertile areas, devastating a crop that is nearly ready for harvest.  The rainy season typically begins in October or November, and ends by June.  Usually, rainfall in November triggers the long planting window, which includes the months of November, December, and January when farmers sow the two staple crops of wheat and barley.  In total, most of the Maghreb’s grain belt receives less than 20 inches of rain per year.  Fortunately, the region’s mild winter allows planting to progress (as long as there is sufficient moisture) through January. Irrigation is minimal and infrequent, mostly derived from pumped groundwater into a gravity and canal/channel system. 

Additional Data:

Morocco
The center and southern region, which comprise Morocco's grain belt, have both received near-record levels of fall precipitation.  This favorable situation should translate into maximum planted area in this large region.  Satellite-derived vegetation indexes currently depict a large area of very high biomass values across Morocco's growing areas. Last year, Morocco's wheat and barley crop of 4.7 million tons (including 3.5 million of wheat and 1.2 million tons of barley), was twice as high as the disappointing 2007/08 crop, but it was still 1.6 million tons below Morocco's five-year average.  On average, Morocco produces about 4.3 million tons of wheat on its prime lands and about 2.0 million tons of barley - largely on its secondary land. News reports in late January quote the chairman of the Moroccan Agriculture and Rural Development Confederation as expecting a record crop which could dramatically reduce imports. The report also mentioned that some areas were not planted with grains because the frequent precipitation made fields inaccessible.

On average, Morocco produces about 50 - 60 percent of northwest Africa’s grain crop, while Algeria and Tunisia split the balance of the Maghreb’s aggregate production. One of the most influential factors contributing to Morocco’s grain production total involves the amount of marginal land brought under cultivation during the year. Much of the country’s southern and central regions are swing producing areas where temperatures are higher, rainfall is less reliable and scarcer, and moisture deficiencies are more severe than further north.  In this region, farmers are especially motivated to sow crops during and after bouts of fall precipitation;  Planted area is greatly increased in years when autumn rainfall is relatively abundant, while secondary or more marginal land is left fallow in the dryer years.  These actions make Morocco's production highly variable from one year to the next.  This season, northern Morocco, particularly along its Mediterranean Coast, has experienced rainfall at record levels but this area is not Morocco's major grain belt. 

Tunisia
As of mid-January, cumulative rainfall across Tunisia’s growing region amounted to just about half its average level, the lowest in over five years. Due to the lack of early season moisture, it is likely that Tunisia’s 2009/10 planted area is down and emerged winter crops are likely stressed.  Satellite-derived vegetation indexes indicate this, depicting a large area in the central growing region with very low values when compared to previous years. This is consistent with what would be expected in an area with plant stress and/or less planted area. More recently, mid-January rainfall favorably boosted cumulative precipitation, but overall amounts remain very low.  During the 2008/09 season, Tunisia produced just 1.6 million tons of combined wheat and barley (specifically, 1.25 million tons of wheat and 0.35 million tons of barley), compared to its average grain crop of 2.0 million tons.

Algeria

Algeria’s 2009/10 cereals crop is developing under favorable moisture conditions thanks to an autumn with above average rainfall across all of its growing areas.  This year, precipitation totals are especially pronounced in the west, but the entire agricultural region has benefitted from high precipitation totals and the resulting high soil moisture level. Late January news reports quote an unnamed agriculture ministry official that, "farmers are very optimistic for 2009" and are expecting a larger wheat crop than last year. Algeria's growing region is much more limited in extent than the other Maghreb countries - about100 kilometers at it's widest- as it parallels the Medeterranean coastline. During 2008/09 Algeria experienced the best growing season of the three countries in the Maghreb, and with average levels of rainfall, the country produced slightly above-average production totals.   During the 2008/09 season Algeria harvested 3.3 million tons of  combined wheat and barley (specifically 2.6 million of wheat and 0.7 million tons of barley) compared to its average combined crop of 3.5 million tons.

Northwest Africa's climate includes a mild winter when little rainfall is needed to ward off small evaporation losses to the semi-dormant crop.  Both Morocco's and Algeria's water balance should be sufficient until crop growth continues in late February. Tunisia however, is in a critical state requiring immediate precipitation.  All countries will require several rain events around March when growth quickens and plants enter the water dependent flowering stage. That will be the start of the second major phase of the 2009/10 crop.

Vegetative indices from satellite data depict a strong crop canopy this season in Morocco and Algeria (as indicated by high levels of green in the image).  Links to images from the last eight seasons are included.

In addition, the NDVI graphs below chart the progress of the current season's biomass as compared to past years:

USDA's first official forecast for northwest Africa's 2009/10 crop production will be released in May.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.