Russia:  Dryness Delays the Launch of Sowing Campaign for 2011/12 Winter Grains

The ongoing drought in the Volga and Central Districts of European Russia has delayed the launch of the fall sowing campaign for 2011/12 winter grains. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, fewer than 21,000 hectares of winter crops had been planted by August 18 compared to 571,000 hectares by the same date last year.  (Detailed, district-level planting data for the current season have not yet been released.)  Since planting advances from north to south, the initial delays are occurring in the northernmost tier of the winter-grain zone where a relatively small share (about 10 percent) of the country’s winter wheat is produced. Winter-grain sowing in the southern Central, Southern, and North Caucasus Districts, which together account for about 70 percent of Russia’s winter wheat output, will not be in full swing until mid-September and will continue until late November. Winter wheat accounts for almost half of Russia's total wheat area and about 80 percent of the country's winter-grain area.

According to planting reports from Rosstat (the Federal State Statistical Service of Russia) and the Ministry of Agriculture over the past five years, the planting of winter grains in the Volga District typically begins in mid-August and is largely complete by the end of September. The pace depends on weather and other factors, but fall sowing in the Volga District usually is 60 to 80 percent complete by early September, and 85 to 95 percent complete by around September 20. Wheat occupies 65 percent of Volga winter grain area; the remainder is rye. The Volga District accounts for approximately 22 percent of Russia’s total winter-wheat area (based on the average of the past five years).

Fall sowing occurs later in the Central District than in the Volga District. Planting is just underway at the end of August and is largely complete by the beginning of October. Almost 90 percent of the Central District's winter grain is wheat and the rest is rye. The Central District accounts for 23 percent of Russia’s winter wheat.

The Southern and North Caucasus Districts together account for over half of Russia’s winter wheat area (38 percent in the Southern and 16 percent in the North Caucasus). The breakdown of winter grain area is 89 percent wheat, 4 percent rye, and 7 percent barley in the Southern District, and 87 percent wheat, 1 percent rye, and 12 percent barley in the North Caucasus District. About 60 percent of winter grains in these districts is planted after October 1, and planting continues through mid-November.

Weather and satellite data indicate that soil moisture (both surface and sub-surface) is extremely low throughout the winter-grain production region in European Russia. Although generous precipitation will be required to fully replenish depleted sub-soil moisture reserves and ensure favorable conditions for spring growth, winter crops rely on topsoil moisture, not subsurface moisture, for germination and establishment in the fall. The intensity and persistence of the current drought is unique, but pre-planting dryness – especially in the Volga Valley – is not unusual. Widespread dryness contributed to early delays in last year’s fall sowing campaign as well (i.e., the 2009/10 crop) in both the Volga and Central Districts, but timely rainfall enabled agricultural enterprises to reach the pace of previous years within several weeks, and final sown area reached a 7-year high in both districts. Furthermore, autumn moisture demands for winter grains are relatively low: about 90 percent of winter wheat’s water consumption occurs after the crop breaks dormancy and resumes vegetative growth in the spring.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available in the World Agricultural Production circular of the FAS International Production Assessment Division, or at PSD Online.