AFGHANISTAN: Wheat Production Forecast to Decline in 2011

The 2011 wheat harvest in Afghanistan will begin in the next few weeks and be completed at the highest elevations in the Hindu Kush Mountains sometime in late July or early August 2011. The bulk of the harvest usually occurs from late May through early July, as the majority of crops are cultivated in earlier-maturing lowland locations. Early indications are that 2011 wheat production will decline significantly from last year, as deficient moisture and poor crop germination plagued the vast northern growing regions of the country. Both crop area and yield are expected to decline owing to insufficient rainfall and/or irrigation supply at various times of the growing season. USDA is currently estimating marketing year 2011/12 wheat production at 2.5 million tons, down 1.2 million or 33 percent from last year. Harvested wheat area is forecast at 2.1 million hectares, down 0.25 million or 11 percent.

Wheat is grown throughout the country in a wide variety of microclimatic environments. These range from the arid desert lowlands of Helmand province to the temperate high altitude mountain valleys in provinces like Bamyan and Ghor. The crop is typically planted in the autumn and harvested in early summer. Over half of the national wheat crop is totally reliant on rainfall, while approximately 45 percent of total area has access to irrigation. Irrigated wheat is cultivated in virtually every province; however total acreage is insufficient to ensure national wheat self-sufficiency. Afghanistan experiences wide fluctuations in seasonal rainfall, and is prone to periodic drought. Its large non-irrigated rainfed wheat regions which are located in the northern half of the country are particularly vulnerable, with widespread crop failure often associated with low rainfall in either autumn or spring. National annual wheat production, as a consequence, is highly variable.

At the end of April 2011 a detailed nationwide satellite-imagery analysis revealed that Afghanistan’s wheat crop had largely progressed through its peak development phase (when crop yield is determined) and that the overall production outlook is well-below that achieved in the past two years. The current 2011 crop assessment indicates that total production will likely decline by approximately 33 percent from last year owing to a 70 percent decline in harvested non-irrigated (rainfed) crop area and a 5-10 percent decline in irrigated crop area. The images below illustrate comparative moderate resolution satellite images over an intensively irrigated wheat growing region in southwestern Afghanistan. The change detection analysis performed was instrumental in identifying areas where cultivated area declined and/or where crop germination failed to occur. Similar analysis was carried out in a total of twelve provinces which typically account for 65 percent of total wheat production.

Wheat crop yields in 2011 are also forecast to be lower than last year owing to deficient moisture during planting, poor crop emergence, and thinner than normal plant populations in successfully cultivated fields. Drought conditions blanketed much of the country during the autumn 2010 planting period and extended through the early crop establishment phase in mid-January 2011. Overall wheat crop emergence and establishment as a result has been the worst since the severe drought year of 2008 (see map above). Satellite-derived vegetation index (NDVI) data indicate that not only has there has been a significant decline in crop vegetation compared to last year, but that yield prospects in many northern irrigated areas are much lower than normal. The combination of lower national wheat crop area and yields is expected to result in significantly lower total production this year.

Crops in all locations except the highest elevations are beginning their final maturation growth phase in early May, with harvest activities expected to begin in provinces such as Helmand and Farah before the end of the month. The most significant reductions in wheat production this year are expected in the major wheat regions of the northwest, north, and northeast (where surplus national production typically occurs) – while the southwest, south, and eastern regions will generally experience much more modest declines in year-to-year production. The northern half of the country typically accounts for approximately 70 percent of total production. So when widespread regional problems develop in these areas it has substantial national implications. Drought conditions in the autumn appear to have either prevented farmers from fulfilling their sowing intentions in many areas or seed that was sown largely failed to germinate. Satellite imagery of prime irrigated lands in the northern provinces of Faryab, Jowzjan and Balkh also hint at problems with irrigation supplies this year. Irrigated wheat area in these provinces, which account for 23 percent of national wheat production, is estimated to have declined roughly 30 percent compared to last year.

Though there will be a sizable shortfall in domestic wheat production this year, near-normal production is forecast for much of the Central Aisa region. This includes countries such as Pakistan and Kazakhstan which provide the vast majority of Afghanistan's commercial wheat import needs. Unlike 2008, when a severe region-wide drought decimated wheat production in both Afghanistan and its neighbors - sparking a domestic food-aid crisis, there should be ample wheat supplies in the region this year to satisfy any increase in Afghanistan's import requirements.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.