MIDDLE EAST: Wheat Production Forecast to Decline in 2011

The 2011/12 wheat harvest in the Middle East is already underway in parts of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. The bulk of the harvest usually occurs from late May through July, though crops at higher elevations in both Turkey and Iran mature later and harvest activities normally continue in these areas through August. Early indications are that 2011/12 wheat production will be lower than last year, as autumn drought reduced planted area and crop establishment in many non-irrigated growing regions. Both crop area and yield are expected to decline across the wider region owing to insufficient rainfall and/or irrigation supply at various times of the growing season. USDA is currently estimating 2011/12 Middle East wheat production at 37.9 million tons, down 2.2 million or 6 percent from last year. Harvested wheat area is forecast at 18.2 million hectares, down 0.28 million or 2 percent.

The 2011 wheat growing season in the Middle East was less favorable than 2010 largely owing to lower overall rainfall. Last year crops experienced above-normal winter rainfall accumulations and warmer than normal temperatures. The mild and wet weather conditions led to exceptionally lush crop development and yield prospects. It also provided the perfect environment for wheat pests and diseases, and resulted in a serious outbreak of yellow-stripe rust which infected crops in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. Without the damage to crop yields caused by stripe rust last year, the region had the potential to produce a record or near-record wheat harvest. In the current 2011/12 growing season below normal rainfall was recorded in eastern Turkey, northeastern Syria, northern Iraq, and western Iran – all of which are important non-irrigated rainfed wheat growing areas.

As noted in the satellite vegetative index anomaly map above, regions affected by lower than normal rainfall have also experienced a significant reduction in crop density compared to last year. The vegetative index map was produced at a time when crop growth and development is normally at its peak (flowering to early grainfill) throughout the Middle East. The reductions in vegetative indices are believed to be the result of poor crop germination and thinner than normal crop stands. A net reduction is regional wheat yield and production is forecast as a result.

Major Producers:

Turkey – Wheat area is estimated at 7.8 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 3 percent from last year, while production is forecast at 17.4 million tons, up 0.4 million or 2 percent. Yields are forecast at an above-average 2.23 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last year largely owing to above normal rainfall in the major producing regions of the Anatolian Plateau and western Turkey and an absence of yellow rust problems this year. Farmers report extremely limited incidences of yellow rust, especially in the southeastern growing region which was hit hard last year. The southeast received much lower rainfall this year, which generally retarded rust development.

Iran – Wheat area is estimated at 6.8 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 3 percent from last year, while production is forecast at 13.8 million tons, down 1.8 million or 11 percent. Yields are forecast to decline by roughly 9 percent from last year to 2.02 tons per hectare, largely owing to less favorable rainfall and crop development in the major western rainfed growing regions. These western growing areas typically account for over 50 percent of total wheat production in the country.

Syria – Wheat area is estimated at 1.5 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 11 percent from last year, while production is forecast at 3.3 million tons, down 0.4 million or 10 percent. Yields are forecast below-average at 2.17 tons per hectare, down 19 percent from last year owing to well-below normal rainfall and poor rainfed crop establishment in the major north and northeastern producing provinces of Ar-Raqqah and Al-Hassakah. Government authorities report extremely limited incidences of yellow rust, and have effectively treated the crops with fungicides to limit the spread of the disease this year. Generally dry winter conditions have also helped to retard the development of the disease.

Iraq - Wheat area is estimated at 1.7 million hectares, unchanged from last year, while production is forecast at 2.0 million tons, down 0.4 million or 15 percent. Yields are forecast below-average at 1.21 tons per hectare, down 15 percent from last year owing to well-below normal rainfall and poor rainfed crop establishment in the major northern producing provinces of Ninewa, Kirkuk, Dahuk, and Sulaymaniyah. Government authorities report extremely poor crop germination in many northern areas, but also limited incidences of yellow rust this year – both due to generally drier weather conditions. Wheat production in the country’s primarily irrigated central and southern regions is expected to be near-normal, helping to prevent national crop production from falling below average.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.