Deep Freeze in Europe;
Damage Feared
European wheat and rapeseed may have been damaged by the recent low temperatures which occurred with little to no protective snowcover. Wheat and rapeseed in western Poland and eastern Germany are most vulnerable to potential winterkill.
Winterkill Potential Map
Cold Incursion
Extremely cold temperatures began to engulf the European continent beginning around the 30th of January. In many crop-growing regions, temperatures dropped below critical values for winterkill damage. The cold air mass started in the east over Poland and Romania and pushed into France, moderating as it tracked west. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue in the near future. It is possible that areas of widespread damage could have occurred in areas of the European wheat and rapeseed belt, but it is hard to ascertain damage at this point. The 2011-12 winter had been very mild until this cold incursion occurred. In some of the milder areas, such as France, crops were likely not fully winter-hardened, leaving them more vulnerable to the cold. This entire area of Europe - from Poland through central France - is Europe’s primary winter wheat and winter rapeseed producing region. The European Union (EU-27) is the world's largest single producer of both wheat at 137.5 million tons or 19.8% of world production, and rapeseed at 19.1 million tons or 31.4% of world production in 2011/12. Additional USDA statistics on production can be found in the monthly World Agricultural Production release at http://www.fas.usda.gov/wap/current/default.asp
Areas of Potential Damage
Winterkill can occur when crops with little-to-no snow cover experience extremely cold temperatures. The generally accepted threshold for unprotected winter wheat is about -18°C and the threshold for rapeseed is about -15°C. Several crop areas have lacked protective snow cover during this event and are therefore the most susceptible to winterkill damage. Most concerning is western Poland and eastern Germany, where low temperatures have reached -20°C and below, with little or no snowcover to insulate the dormant crops. Areas of Slovakia, Austria, and the Czech Republic may have also sustained substantial damage because of a lack of snowcover and temperatures approaching -20°C. Hungary recorded temperatures around -15°C and had no snowcover until February 4th when a snowstorm markedly improved its snow coverage. Western Germany, France, and the Low Countries were a little warmer, experiencing minimum temperatures from -10°C to -15°C, but they could have also suffered damage. Microclimates, the duration of cold, topography, plant hardiness, variety, and many other factors can influence damage levels
Temperature and snowcover map.
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) staff stationed in Europe observed vegetation at the onset of winter being far more advanced than normal. Extensive plant development prior to winter adds to the challenges for crops to endure an extended severe cold outbreak. FAS staff also confirmed any heavily damaged areas will likely be re-seeded with spring rapeseed, wheat, or barley in the northern countries, or with corn or sunflower in the southern countries.
Wheat and Rapeseed Growing Areas Map
Protected Areas
The most severe cold occurred in areas that were protected by deep snowcover. These areas are expected to have minimal-to-no damage to their crops because of this event. These areas are predominantly in Eastern Europe and include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, eastern Poland, southern Germany, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online. For current crop weather and agro-meteorological conditions, please visit USDA-FAS's Crop Explorer at http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/
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