Paraguay Declares Drought and Food Emergency
On Tuesday, January 17, 2012, President Fernando Lugo of Paraguay signed a decree for a food emergency for the next 90 days. The drought has limited movement of food along rivers and canals as well as led to the lack of sufficient potable water for domestic use. Commercial shipping is impossible due to low water levels in rivers. At least 313 indigenous communities are affected by the food and water scarcity. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that 8 of the country’s 17 departments are under a serious drought, leaving agriculture production with a decrease of 30 to 50 percent. Estimates suggest that 110,000 people from 20 impoverished indigenous groups and the crops in the eastern and western regions of the country may be affected by the drought. Paraguay is the world’s fourth largest soybean exporter, but far behind the third supplier, Argentina.
Although recent rains have brought some relief, more rain is needed to replenish soil moisture. Multiple crops have been affected such as sesame, cotton, soybean, sunflower, corn, beans, peanuts, cassava and bananas according to the January 9, 2012 report. The dryness and very warm weather is expected to damage crops although recent rains have cooled temperatures somewhat.
Soybeans are in multiple stages in Paraguay from early vegetative to pod set. The weather has hurt soybeans and other crops, in some cases soybean fields may make limited recovery with recent rains. Soybean production decreases will show up in lowered yields. Lower production could, in turn, complicate bank loans to growers, lower export earnings and further degrade the country’s economy during bolstered inflation.
The USDA forecast for the soybean crop in Paraguay for the 2011/2012 season is currently estimated at 6.4 million tons from an area of 2.8 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 2.29 tons per hectare for February 2012. USDA updates its forecast monthly. Continued hot temperatures and lack of consistent rain bears watching.
Figure 1. Sporatic rains that were less than needed have severely hit soybeans in southeastern Paraguay. Any further rains may be too late to improve yields. |
Rains on January 13, 2012 exceeded expectations from the Paraguay’s meteorological service in the top farm regions. In the district of Itapua, as much as 90 millimeters (mm) fell on dry soils and in Alto Parana over 70 mm brought relief to wilted crops—above the 30 mm first forecast. The rains brought cooling temperatures across the agricultural regions, but still have not replenished ground moisture losses so recovery of crops may be limited.
Figure 2. Cumulative rainfall in southeastern Paraguay has been below last year. Some farmers suggest that soy production may drop below that of three years ago when drought compromised the crop. |
Cotton, sesame and corn are also damaged. As of the second week of January, about 3,000 acres (1,225 hectares) of cotton within the department of San Pedro were estimated as damaged as well as 172 thousand acres (70 thousand hectares) of sesame. Corn within these affected areas is damaged along with any sunflower at the flowering stage or earlier.
The presidential decree will allow the government of Paraguay to take administrative and financial measures to provide an immediate response to food production problems. The Minister of Agriculture in Paraguay, Enzo Cardoso, has confirmed the emergency and stated that the government plans to help producers by providing them with tools to guarantee progress out of the drought effects. The Ministry will distribute seed to 245,000 small farmers and 25,000 I indigenous families for use in subsistence farming. The declared state of emergency allows the government to directly purchase certain goods, like seed, instead of using the normal bidding process.
The hot temperatures and limited rain from the end of November 2011 until January 13, 2012, has caused a series of fires which has destroyed acres of pasture, reducing feed for animals. More rains are needed or additional pasture and cropland will be affected. Already crop prospects have deteriorated so that rains now may be too late to reverse stress damage.
At a recent conference during the second week of February in Paraguay which included representatives from the Agricultural Ministry, the farmers’ association and the Paraguayan export organization, CAPECO, soy production was estimated as possibly going as low as only half of last year’s soybean production.
Harvest is now underway on early planted fields, with yields trending much below last year. The production situation could degrade to below 5 million tons, according to analysts, suggesting that the crop situation is similar to the disastrous crop of three years ago. In 2008/09, Paraguay produced 4 million tons of soybeans. In that season, the crop was too damaged to make any recovery from the severe drought. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, 202-270-0107.)
Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.
Visit Crop Explorer http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov
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