Mexico: Corn Production Forecast to Increase Significantly in 2012/13

The USDA estimated 2012/13 Mexico corn production at 21.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and up 3.4 million or 19 percent from last year. Harvested corn area is forecast at 7.1 million hectares, up 0.1 million from last month and up 1.1 million or 18 percent from last year’s drought affected crop. Corn yields are forecast to reach 3.03 tons per hectare, slightly higher than last year.

Timely early season rains across the main corn producing regions allowed farmers to plant near-normal levels of the main spring/summer corn crop this year. This seasonal crop typically accounts for up to 75 percent of total corn production in the country. Growers are currently expected to have increased corn area compared to last year in the states of Mexico (22 percent), Jalisco (18 percent), Michoacán (15 percent), and Puebla (9 percent). Last year’s crop, by comparison, was decimated by drought, with total corn area falling by over 1.0 million hectares. Farmers reportedly completed planting operations for the 2012/13 crop in June, with weather conditions through early August being very favorable for crop development. As of the end of July, soil moisture levels have been good throughout much of the corn plateau. Temperatures have been trending above normal and the crop seems to developing on schedule. The 2012/13 spring/summer corn crop will be entering its most critical growth stage in early September. Crop yields are currently forecast at 3.03 tons per hectare, slightly higher than last year.

The USDA also revised the 2011/12 corn estimate, reducing it by 0.9 million tons to 18.1 million. This is down about 14 percent from 2010/11. This revision is based on official statistics from the Secretariat of Agricultural, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA). SAGARPA recently reported that drought conditions during the summer growing season followed by an early frost in September caused greater yield losses than previously expected in the main spring/summer corn crop. As a result the 2011/12 spring/summer crop is now estimated at 13.5 million metric tons, down 20 percent from the previous year. The production of the fall/winter crop, which accounts for about a quarter of total corn production, was estimated at 5.1 million tons. Inadequate irrigation supplies owing to the summer drought led farmers to reduce overall planted acreage of winter corn, resulting in a crop which was approximately 13 percent below average.

Visit Crop Explorer http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.