Record Soybean and Corn Area Expected for Brazil’s Upcoming 2012/13 Season

The recent US drought resulted in record prices for soybean and corn during July and August 2012, and Brazilian farmers in the southern hemisphere are expected to respond to these favorable prices by planting record soybean and corn area during the next several months. The favorable soybean-corn price ratios should motivate Brazilian farmers to plant more soybeans during September-December, with first-season corn area expected to be less than last year. However, a record second-season corn area is expected to be planted from January-February 2103 to compensate for the reduced first-season corn area.

The trend for corn area in Brazil is to plant more second-season corn, with next year’s second-season corn area expected to exceed the first-corn season corn area for the first time (refer to Figure 1). In addition, Brazilian farmers in the Midwest and Northeast are adding more irrigation systems which reduce drought risks, increase yields, and increase crop area with double and triple cropping potential.

Figure 1. Record 2012/13 second-season corn area expected to
exceed first-season corn area for the first time.

The state of Mato Grosso is the largest soybean producing state and second-largest corn producing state in Brazil, with most corn grown in Mato Grosso as a second-season crop planted immediately after the soybeans are harvested in January and February. Regional crop statistics from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) indicate that the northern region of the state is where most soybean and corn is produced (refer to Figure 2), but IBGE and other data sources do not show soybeans being grown between Sinop, Brazil and the Para-Mato Grosso state border (refer to Figures 3 and 4). However, FAS field travel to the region, recent Landsat imagery, and the recent land use product published by Sparovek, et al (2012) indicate large amounts of cropland have been developed north of Sinop and along the BR-163 highway, also nicknamed the “soybean highway” (refer to Figures 4-6).

Figure 2. Soybean and corn area statistics for 5 IBGE Regions from 1990-present

Figure 3. Brazil soybean production and land use types

Figure 4. Soybean area and land use type in Mato Grosso

Figure 5. Landsat imagery reveals cropland increased north of Sinop, Brazil during the past 25-years.

Figure 6. Brazil’s “soybean highway” is currently being paved from the Para-Mato Grosso state border to Santarem, Para.

Planting season for both soybean and first-season corn is from September-December, with the soybean planting season beginning on September 15 or at the end of the 90-day soybean free period in central Brazil from June 15 - September 15. The 90-day soybean free period has been enforced by most states in Brazil as way to prevent rust spores to live from season to season because soybean rust spores cannot survive for more than sixty days without a live host soybean plant. Corn is planted during two crop seasons, with summer or first-season corn planted in southern Brazil from early-September-December and the winter or second-season corn planted from January through mid-March. The crop calendar for states located in Midwestern Brazil is shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7. Crop Calendar for Brazil’s Midwest

Total harvested corn area for 2012/13 is forecast at 16.0 million hectares, up 0.8 million or 5 percent from last year. Total harvested soybean area for 2012/13 is forecast at 27.5 million hectares, up 2.5 million or 10 percent from last year. Brazil’s total corn production for 2012/13 is forecast at 70 million tons, down 1.0 million tons or 1 percent less than last year’s bumper harvest. Brazil’s total soybean production for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 81 million tons, up 15.5 million tons or 24 percent greater than last year’s drought reduced crop.

Reference:

Sparovek, G, Berndes, G, Barretto, A. and I. Klug, 2012. “The revision of the Brazilian Forest Act: Environmental Science and Policy, Volume 16, February 2012, pages 65-72

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.