PHILIPPINES: Super Typhoon Haiyan Causes Limited Losses of Rice and Corn (Updated)

A rare category 5 “Super Typhoon” struck a group of islands in the central Philippines (Visayas Region) on November 8th, 2013 bringing 200+ mile per hour winds, a tsunami-like coastal storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Super Typhoon Haiyan was reported to have been the strongest tropical storm to make landfall anywhere on earth. Large areas across the region are utterly devastated, with an almost total loss of buildings and infrastructure. The Philippine government on November 15th reported the storm had affected over 9.5 million people, with over 3,600 feared dead and over 1.8 million people currently homeless or displaced. Entire cities and villages were flattened or destroyed by gale-force winds and a 15-25 foot storm surge. Despite its record intensity and power, however, Typhoon Haiyan is likely to remain a much larger humanitarian disaster than an agricultural one, given it struck in one of the least intensively cultivated regions in the country. This preliminary assessment is based on all currently available data from official sources, and will be updated for accuracy as more information becomes available.

Preliminary estimates of damages to the agricultural sector have reached US$208.3 million, including $60.5 million in lost rice and corn crops. Initial estimates from the Department of Agriculture indicate approximately 155,000 hectares of farmland was severely damaged, including 86,200 hectares of rice and 14,200 hectares of corn. Rice losses were estimated at 140,000 tons while corn losses were forecast at 28,000 tons. Other high value crops were also significantly affected, including sugarcane and coconut.

Agricultural lands and crop production in the Philippines are heavily concentrated on the northern island of Luzon and the southern island of Mindanao, which were not directly affected by this storm. The central Philippines by comparison, including the Visayas which bore the brunt of typhoon Haiyan, are the least productive food and feed grain producing region of the country. In regards to their contribution to annual grain output, the Visayas typically account for roughly 20 percent of national milled rice and 8 percent of total corn production (2.3 and 0.59 million tons respectively).

The Philippine government collects agricultural statistics at the local and regional level throughout the year, publishing seasonal data on a quarterly basis. Typhoon Haiyan struck the Visayas Region during the last quarter of the year, which is the most important growing period for rice in this region and the second most important for corn. The area planted to rice is at a peak between July-Dec, owing to the prevalence of rainfall during southeast Asia’s summer monsoon season. Dry season rice production, from January-June, is about 60 percent lower. One fortunate aspect of the typhoons path through the Visayas is that its worst affects were concentrated in four of the lowest producing agricultural areas (Eastern Samar, Leyte, Cebu, and Negros Occidental).

The Visayas as a whole produce roughly 710,000 tons of milled rice and 110,000 tons of corn during the 4th quarter. Therefore, only a small portion of the national rice and corn crop were exposed to damage, lying in the direct path of the storm (6 percent and 1 percent respectively). However, what is unknown at this time is to what degree stored grain from previous harvests were lost owing to damage to warehouses, grain mills, markets, and on-farm supplies. Current reports indicate many storm-hardened emergency evacuation centers built to withstand such storms were heavily damaged during the 48 hours Haiyan pounded the region. Therefore, given this and ample news photography of widespread destruction of above ground building structures in cities and towns, it is likely some stored grain supplies were also lost. The 2nd largest rice harvest of the year (700,000 tons, milled basis) was completed in the Jul-Sept period, and would have been largely concentrated at regional warehouses, local rice mills and in markets. These buildings would have been vulnerable to the devastatingly high winds, torrenntial rains, and storm surge from Typhoon Haiyan. In addition, famers all across the region have been planting rice which will mature and be harvested during the 1st quarter of 2014 (Jan-Mar). Little is known about the planting progress, field condition, or prospective yield potential of this crop, which is the 3rd largest in a typical calendar year.

Farmers in the Philippines usually plant two rice and corn crops each year, corresponding to the wet and dry seasons. The second crops are usually sown late in the wet season, to take advantage of good moisture during the first 2-3 months of its life cycle. However, as can be seen from the chart of quarterly production above, farmers are actively harvesting both crops throughout the year (during each quarter), meaning the planting period is quite wide and plantings are staggered over a period of months. Both crops immediately affected by Typhoon Haiyan were wet season crops, having been planted between March and June 2013.

The Philippine Department of Agriculture reported on November 9th that it had pre-positioned supplies of rice seed in the region to assist farmers in any replanting efforts that may be required. Given the frequency of natural disasters in the Philippines, the government reportedly keeps stockpiles of seed sufficient to replant approximately 400,000 hectares of rice land, or about 8 percent of total national rice area. The Department of Agriculture also reported that total rice losses from weather disasters in 2013 to-date had reached 300,000 tons, which is roughly half of its annual buffer stock of 600,000 tons.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.