THAILAND: Irrigation Shortage Reduces 2015/16 Rice Production
 USDA estimates Thailand’s 2015/16 rice production at 16.4 million tons (milled basis), down 1.6 million tons or 9 percent from last month and down 12.5 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 9.7 million hectares, down 0.55 million or 5 percent from last month and 6 percent from last year. Yield is estimated well below-average at 2.58 tons per hectare.
Thailand is experiencing a second consecutive year of below-normal rainfall, which has the potential to cripple its agricultural sector and slow its economy. The vast majority of the country’s irrigated farmland and urban population are reliant on stored water in highland reservoirs. Deficient rainfall in key northwestern watersheds has resulted in insufficient reservoir recharge, and a significant depletion in the national water supply. Water shortages have been widespread, forcing the government to ration its use for agricultural, industrial, and urban consumers for the past 9 months. In September 2015 the government urged farmers to completely refrain from cultivating irrigated rice during the upcoming 2015/16 winter dry season, owing to critically low reservoir supplies. The government intends to ensure adequate drinking water for the nation’s urban population throughout 2016 by severely curtailing its use by the agricultural sector. Meanwhile the Royal Irrigation Department (RID), which oversees national irrigation water distribution, indicated there would officially be no irrigation supply for dry season rice cropping. In a typical year, Thai farmers would cultivate approximately 2.0 million hectares of rice in the dry season, producing on average 5.6 million tons (milled basis) of rice. The current government policy is indicative of a national water crisis that the authorities are taking seriously. The rainy season is ending (June-Oct), and with it any chance of reversing the current situation until at least August or September 2016. The Thai government can only hope that next year’s monsoon brings unusually copious rainfall to help replenish the severely diminished reservoir supplies.
Figure 2: Thailand rice land distribution
Rice cultivation is widely dispersed in Thailand, with major growing regions focused in the lower north, central plains, and northeast. The majority of acreage is non-irrigated or rainfed, accounting for a total of about 6.65 million hectares (6.15 million wet season, 0.5 million dry season). Irrigated acreage amounts to about 2.6 million hectares in the wet season and 1.5 million in the dry season, for a total of approximately 4.1 million hectares. There are two major reservoirs which account for 80-90 percent of the irrigation supply for rice cultivation, namely Bhumipol and Sirikit which are located in the northern headwaters of the Chao Phraya river basin. (See figure 2). As can be seen in figure 3 of the Bhumipol reservoir, the current water supply is below last year’s drought-affected level, and well below the normal storage range as defined by the upper and lower rules. The rules define the normal storage capacity to ensure optimal enduse. As of October 22, 2015 - Thai water management authorities indicate that Bhumipol contains only 37 percent of its normal expected capacity. In addition, USDA/Bangkok reported in September that total reservoir supplies in the country were approximately 40 to 50 percent below this same period last year. The water shortage problem is generally widespread, with implications for irrigated rice cultivation beyond the upcoming 2015/16 dry season growing period. It is very likely that the irrigation supply for next year’s 2016/17 wet season crop will also be curtailed, placing 2.6 million hectares at risk.
Figure 3: Thailand: Bhumipol reservoir supply status
Thailand has two annual rice-growing periods, called the “wet-season” and “dry-season” crops. Even though it is called the “wet season” a small portion of that season’s crop is irrigated. Wet-season rice is heavily dependent on monsoonal weather systems, with 70 percent of the crop being totally rainfed. The other 30 percent primarily lies in the western Chao Phraya river basin and is irrigated from water stored in mountain reservoirs. The wet- season rice harvest is the larger of two annual crops, normally accounting for roughly 72 percent of total annual production. Wet-season rice acreage has averaged about 8.8 million hectares since 2007. The dry season rice crop by comparison is cultivated on an average 2.0 million hectares, is approximately 80 percent irrigated, and accounts for roughly 28 percent of total annual rice production. Dry-season rice crops have nearly double the yields of the primarily rainfed wet-season crop.
Figure4: (a) Map of Thailand: dry season rice distribution and (B) chart of dry season rice area and milled production
Farmer’s residing in Thailand’s lower north and central plains regions are the primary population experiencing the negative effects of restricted irrigation supplies. They are now entering the third consecutive growing season where water availability has been limited owing to official government intervention. This region is essentially the nation’s rice breadbasket, being the location of the majority of the irrigation infrastructure and agricultural mechanization. The country’s exportable rice surplus is produced in the lower north and central plain region, typically flowing from the dry season harvest itself. The irrigation supply was restricted during the 2014/15 dry season owing to low rainfall and reservoir levels, reducing area by approximately 480,000 hectares or 24 percent. The subsequent 2015/16 irrigated wet season crop was also similarly impacted, with irrigation restrictions causing a reduction of 160,000 hectares or 2 percent. And now the outlook for the current 2015/16 irrigated dry season crop is expected to be even worse, with USDA forecasting area down 1.0 million hectares or 50 percent from the 5 year average. (See figure 4b). Meanwhile the Thai government’s Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) is forecasting a complete absence in dry season rice cultivation, with total national rice production declining 30 percent from last year. USDA, by comparison, is currently forecasting total 2015/16 production down 12.5 percent, assuming approximately 1.0 million hectares of dry season rice will be sown, of which nearly 0.5 million is rainfed. This forecast projection represents the lowest dry season rice area and production level in Thailand in the past 20 years.
This report has been published by the Office of Global Analysis (OGA), International Production Assessment Division (IPAD). Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.
Related Links at FAS
PSD Online
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx
Crop Explorer
Crop Explorer http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/
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