Drought Delays 2015/16 Corn Planting in South Africa
Sparse rainfall during October and early November has delayed planting in South Africa (Figure 1). Corn planting has been delayed by 40 days or more in the eastern corn belt of KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and eastern Free State provinces. Planting typically begins in early October after receiving sufficient rainfall to begin planting operations (Figures 2-3). Vegetation conditions were also extremely dry in early November, 2015, indicating that planting progress and plant emergence are behind schedule in the eastern corn belt (Figures 4-5).
The drought in the early part of this growing season may be the beginning of a severe drought induced by a strong El Niño which is forecast to persist until late March next year. Strong El Niño conditions could reduce corn yields in South Africa, especially if the drought extends into the critical pollination phase in late January and early February 2016.
Figure 1. Low rainfall from October 1- November 15, 2015
Figure 2. Planting delayed by 40-days or more from delayed rains.
Figure 3. Average Start of Season (SOS) or arrival of sufficient rainfall
Figure 4. Vegetation conditions are dry early in the growing season,
indicating that planting progress and emergence is behind schedule.
Figure 5. District Corn Production (2007) in South Africa
During the past 33 years, strong to very strong El Niño conditions occurred during 1982/83, 1992/93, and 1997/98, and corn yields were correspondingly reduced by 17 to 61 percent from trend yields (Figures 6-7). Dry conditions from last year’s weak El Niño reduced the 2015 corn yield by 15 percent and this year’s strong El Niño with potential duration through March could reduce yields by even more.
Figure 6. Strong El Niño Conditions during 1981/82, 91/92, 97/98, and 2015/16
as measured by NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).
Figure 7. Corn yields during strong El Niño conditions (1981/82, 91/92, and 97/98)
have been -17 to -61 percent below trend yield.
South Africa’s 2015/16 corn production is forecast at 12.75 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from last month, but up 1.95 million from last year’s drought-reduced crop. Area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares, down 200,000 hectares from last month and down 48,000 from last year. The forecast yield of 4.25 tons per hectare is 2.5 percent below the ten-year trend yield of 4.36, but this assumes normal weather for the rest of the upcoming growing season.
Expected planted corn area was lowered this month in response to the planting intentions survey released by South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) on October 27, 2015. Commercial farmers indicated they would plant less corn area than last year even though local corn prices are high, due to low stocks caused by the drought conditions last year.
This report on South Africa’s drought during the 2015/16 corn crop planting season was provided by the Office of Global Analysis (OGA), International Production Assessment Division (IPAD). Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at PSD Online.
Related Links at FAS
PSD Online
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx
Crop Explorer
http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/Default.aspx
USDA/NASA GLAM (Global Agriculture Monitoring) System
http://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/
WMO Station Explorer
http://gis.pecad.fas.usda.gov/WmoStationExplorer/
South Africa Grain and Feed Update (October 28, 2015) from the USDA/FAS GAIN (Global Agricultural Information Network) system
http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Recent%20GAIN%20Publications/Grain%20and%20Feed%20Update_Pretoria_South%20Africa%20-%20Republic%20of_10-28-2015.pdf
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