Northwest Africa: 2016/17 Winter Grains Prospects for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia

Annual precipitation in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia fluctuates greatly. These countries struggle for moisture because they at the southern extent of storm systems, traveling east from the Atlantic Ocean. The vast majority of the grain crops in Northwest Africa are grown on rain-fed land or drylands, less than 10 percent are irrigated. Wheat is grown in the most favorable regions while barley is grown in the more marginal areas farther inland. The arable lands closest to the coast are usually the best wheat producing areas because they receive the most rainfall. The arable regions of Northwest Africa are quite small in comparison to the sizes of the individual countries. Growing areas extend up to 125 miles from the coast in Morocco but no more than 50 to 75 miles in Algeria and Tunisia. The Atlas Mountains and the Sahara Desert occupy most of the land to the west and south of the crop areas. Due to weather fluctuations, a year with “average” production seldom occurs in any of the countries of Northwest Africa.

Morocco is one of the world’s largest wheat importers and its purchases are highly dependent on its variable domestic harvest. On average, Morocco accounts for about 55 percent of the Northwest Africa wheat crop and about 50 percent of the barley crop. Durum or hard wheat comprises about one-third of Morocco’s total wheat harvest. Morocco has a large agricultural area in the center-south that greatly boosts national production during years when rainfall is adequate. A recurring problem, however, is that adequate rainfall does not always reach this far south, reducing area planted and significantly lowering yields. Algeria produces about 30 percent of the Northwest Africa wheat crop, about two-thirds of which is durum wheat. Algeria also accounts for about 35 percent of the region’s barley crop. On average, Tunisia produces about 15 percent of the Northwest Africa wheat and barley crop. About 80 percent of Tunisia’s wheat is durum. Harvesting in Northwest Africa begins first in southern Morocco during May and finishes in Algeria and Tunisia during June.

Weather for 2016/17 Winter Grains
Weather in Northwest Africa has been very unfavorable for winter grains in Morocco and much of Algeria during the first half of the 2016/17 season. After an early start to autumn rainfall in September and October, precipitation was almost non-existent in Morocco and western Algeria during the critical period from November through January. Rainfall during this period is vital for planting and crop emergence. Farmers typically begin planting after the first autumn rains provide soil moisture, so it is expected that many farmers started sowing operations earlier than usual last autumn because of the early-season moisture. The rainfall, however, stopped in October and little fell in the following months. Since the beginning of November and into the first week of February, rainfall averaged only 15 to 20 percent of normal in Morocco (Image 3), and less than 30 percent of normal in western Algeria. The central Algerian coastal growing region has fared moderately better but by the second week of February it was just still 43 percent of normal (Image 4). Eastern Algeria received near-normal levels of rainfall during autumn and winter. Although rainfall has been below average in Tunisia, it has been well timed, arriving at critical periods to provide relief for crops (Image 5).

Desperately needed rainfall of one-half to over one inch fell on much of the growing regions of Morocco during the second week of February. In addition, an inch or more fell across most of the crop areas of Algeria and Tunisia, enhancing vegetative conditions and adding soil moisture. Further rainfall would benefit crops in eastern Algeria and Tunisia. Benefits in Morocco are less certain as months with little to no rainfall have already severely hampered growth. Temperatures during the 2015-16 autumn and winter seasons have been above normal, but not excessively hot. Crop development is estimated to be about a week ahead of normal in Morocco due to the hot and dry conditions.

(Image 6)

Satellite Imagery Confirms Weather Effects on Crops
Satellite imagery (MODIS and Landsat) indicates the effect of drought on winter grains by depicting vegetation vigor to be far below normal in western areas of Northwest Africa. The MODIS NDVI anomaly shows current vegetation vigor to be extremely low in Morocco and western Algeria. The MODIS NDVI graph for Morocco (Image 7), indicates that vegetation started the season favorably in Morocco, but failed to increase further as autumn continued. Morocco has a mild climate that promotes crop growth and increased biomass into winter, but the NDVI graph for the 2016/17 season indicates no improvement in vegetative vigor during the autumn and winter period. Similarly, early-season crop vigor in western Algeria was above-average due to early season rainfall, but at the beginning of December, crop vigor declined and has remained far below average since. In Algeria, the biggest crop-producing region is in the eastern area, and conditions appear much better here and in Tunisia where rainfall was heavier and more frequent. MODIS NDVI indicates an average level of plant biomass throughout the growing season in these areas. Planting typically occurs in in November and December and harvest occurs during June.

                     Northern Morocco MODIS NDVI Graph         Southern Morocco MODIS NDVI Graph

                        Western Algeria MODIS NDVI Graph         Central Algeria MODIS NDVI Graph

Eastern Algeria MODISNDVI Graph

                Tunisia MODIS NDVI Graph

Medium resolution data from Landsat-8 confirms that on a few select field level sites, vegetation vigor decreased significantly in 2016 compared to 2015 (Image 14). Although the Landsat images display highly localized areas, they corroborate the results obtained from the lower-resolution MODIS imagery. Additionally, surface area analysis of satellite imagery of several reservoirs in Morocco show a decrease of 13 to 15 percent of their surface area compared to an average of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. While surface area does not measure volume, it is an indicator of the severity of the drought.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.

Visit Crop Explorer http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/