Russia:  Grain and Oilseeds

USDA estimates total Russia wheat production for 2016/17 at a record 65.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 4.0 mmt from last year and surpassing the previous record of 63.8 mmt for 2008/09. Yield is estimated at 2.50 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), matching the 2014/15 record and 12 percent above the 5-year average. Conditions for winter wheat in the Central, Southern, North Caucasus, and Volga Districts of Russia have been excellent throughout the growing season, and early-season conditions for spring wheat in the Siberian, Ural, and Volga Districts have been favorable as well. USDA production estimates for Russia do not include estimated output of roughly 0.9 mmt from Crimea.

Spring weather has been extremely favorable for 2016/17 winter wheat throughout Russia. According to satellite-derived vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetative Index, or NDVI), crop conditions were outstanding as winter wheat advanced through the critical reproductive stage in mid-May in Russia’s Southern District and North Caucasus District, which together account for about 60 percent of the country’s winter-wheat production. The early-June NDVI indicate continued above-average conditions in the Central District, where winter-crop establishment was hampered by dry fall weather. (See January report.) Winter-wheat yield prospects are high even in the Volga District, a zone of risky agriculture, subject to frequent drought and wide year-to-year fluctuation in yield. Weather and satellite data indicate that overall winter-wheat yield prospects for Russia are better than last year, and similar to 2014 when winter-wheat yield reached a record level. Harvest will begin in late June in southern Russia.

The planting of spring wheat was essentially complete by mid-June. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, spring wheat was planted on 13.6 million hectares (mha) as of June 16, about 3 percent above last year and 2 percent above the Ministry’s April forecast. In the Siberian District, which accounts for about half of Russia’s spring wheat production, sown area is reported at 6.4 mha, matching last year’s level. Spring wheat was planted on 3.8 mha in the Volga District (2 percent above last year), and 2.4 mha in the Ural District (8 percent above last year). Surface moisture was been adequate for spring-grain emergence in most major production regions. Although early-season conditions have been favorable, July and August weather will be critical for determining the potential yield for Russia’s spring wheat. The harvest of spring wheat will begin in mid-August and continue until late October.

Barley
The area sown to spring barley, meanwhile, is down 5 percent from last year as of June 16, with year-to-year decreases reported in every major production region. Daily reports from the Ministry of Agriculture suggest that planting is essentially finished at 7.8 mha, but based on the analysis of planting-progress and final-area data for previous years, the final sown area reported by Rosstat after the entire spring sowing campaign is complete will likely be slightly higher than the mid-June number reported by the Ministry. Spring barley is grown in every district in Russia and accounts for about 90 percent of Russia’s total barley output. (Roughly 0.5 mha of winter barley is planted in southern Russia, mostly in Krasnodar and Stavropol territories.) As is the case with spring wheat, the yield of spring barley will be determined largely by July and August weather. USDA estimates total barley production for 2016/17 at 17.8 million tons, unchanged from last month and up 0.7 mmt from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.19 t/ha, unchanged from last month, up 3.2 percent from last year, and 5.9 percent above the 5-year average.

Corn
As of July 17, with planting nearing completion, corn had been sown on 2.8 million hectares, up 0.1 mha from the same date last year. The year-to-year increase is attributed to expanded planting in the Volga District, a minor corn-production region with relatively low yield. In a typical year, about 95 percent of Russia’s planted corn area is harvested for grain. In years of severe drought or other extensive crop damage, the share of harvested area may drop to as low as 70 percent, with the remainder either chopped for silage in August or abandoned in the field as was the case in 2001 and 2010. USDA forecasts 2016/17 corn output at 14.0 mmt, up 6.3 percent from last year due to an increase in the estimated harvested area.

Oilseeds
Sunflower area is estimated to increase by 5.4 percent this year. According to an attaché report by the USDA Office of Agricultural Affairs in Moscow, two major factors will drive the increase. Most importantly, Russia’s total oilseed crushing capacity exceeds production by 5 to 6 million tons, keeping domestic demand for seed high. In addition, lower export duties on sunflowerseed will boost traders’ demand for seed. A rebound in the amount of imported hybrid seed is consistent with the increase in planted area. Following last year’s anomalous dip, this season’s imports through March are only 6 percent below 2014’s record level. Russian sunseed production for 2016/17 is forecast at 9.5 mmt, which would be the second-highest harvest on record.

The sown area of soybeans in Russia increased by 75 percent between 2010 and 2015, and, according to the USDA attaché report, farmers have strong incentives to maintain a high level of production throughout the country. Output from the Far East District usually comprises about 60 percent of total Russian production, and planted area has increased by about 50 percent over the past five years in response to heavy Chinese demand for Russian soybeans. (Roughly 15 percent of Russia’s soybean production is exported, mostly to China.) Moreover, crushing capacity in the Far East District is slated to increase in 2016. Soybean production in the Central District in European Russia has been increasing significantly in recent years as well. Domestic demand for soybean meal in European Russia is increasing, but area growth is restrained by competition from imported soybeans which offer higher quality at a relatively low price. Total Russian soybean output for 2016/17 is forecast at 2.9 mmt, slightly surpassing last year’s record.

With spring-rape planting drawing to a close, sown area stands at roughly the same level as last year. The reported fall-sown area of winter rape, which accounts for only about 25 percent of Russia’s total rapeseed crop, increased 18 percent from last year and current yield prospects are outstanding. Total rapeseed output for 2016/17 is forecast at 1.2 mmt, up 20 percent from last year.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.  The invaluable contribution of the staff of the USDA Office of Agricultural Affairs in Moscow is gratefully acknowledged. 

Visit Crop Explorer http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/.