Canada Corn: Moderate Drought Impacting Crop in Eastern Production Region

USDA forecasts 2016/17 Canada corn production at 12.0 million metric tons, down 4.0 percent from last month and down 12 percent from 2015/16. Area harvested is estimated at 1.30 million hectares, down 2.2 percent from last month and down slightly from last year. The decrease in the estimated area is based on Ontario provincial reports and trade reports indicating that some fields may be abandoned and others cut for silage. The forecast yield is below average at 9.23 tons per hectare, down nearly 2 percent from last month and down 11 percent from last year, due to unfavorable growing conditions.
Agriculture and Agri-Foods Canada has declared Ontario and some parts of Quebec to be in a moderate drought since July 1, 2016. Precipitation in this important corn region has been only about half the normal amount since May 1. Although the area has received some rain in the last few weeks it was not enough to alleviate rainfall deficits. Temperatures, however, have been about average.

The corn crop across eastern Canada is advancing through silking and tasseling under dry conditions. The reproductive stage is one of the most critical stages for corn development, and dryness at this time can negatively impact yield. Officials in Quebec, which produces about 30 percent of Canada’s corn, report that crop conditions are about average. Local commodity analysts in Ontario, which produces about 60 percent of Canadian corn, have observed wilted, short plants and report that the crop will advance through the grain-fill stage under unfavorable dryness. According to satellite-derived vegetation indices, crop vigor is below average.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD's Agricultural Production page or at PSD Online.

Visit Crop Explorer http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/