Russia:  Current Conditions for 2009/10 Winter Grains

Russia's sown winter-grain area for 2009/10 reportedly reached 17.1 million hectares, the highest level in at least seven years.  Winter damage was unusually low and current crop conditions are good, but subsurface moisture reserves remain below normal in parts of southern Russia. 

Sown Area Up From Last Year
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, winter grains were sown on a reported 17.1 million hectares for 2009/10, compared to approximately 16.9 million last season. Plantings for 2009/10 included 13.8 million hectares of wheat, 2.4 million rye, and 0.6 million barley. Area increased in the Southern, Central, and Volga Districts, which together account for about 97 percent of Russia’s winter grain area and virtually all of the winter wheat. Curiously, the modest increase in sown area occurred despite a four-month slide in wheat prices in European Russia prior to the launch of the fall sowing campaign.

Wheat typically comprises 80 percent of total winter grain area and is the dominant crop in southern Russia, the country’s most productive agricultural zone. According to data from the State Statistical Committee, the final sown area of winter wheat (the surviving area after winterkill) reached a record 12.7 million hectares in 2008/09, jumping by 20 percent from the previous year. Final sown-area data for 2009/10 winter grains likely will not be released until September 2009, but the fall sowing numbers reported by the Ministry of Agriculture suggest a second consecutive year of significantly above-normal winter-wheat area.

Rye is grown farther north, in the less fertile non-chernozem zone. Rye area in Russia has fallen from over 12 million hectares in the early 1960’s to only about 2 million in recent years (or about 15 percent of total winter grain area), concurrent with a decline in livestock inventories and feed consumption. Currently, 80 to 90 percent of Russia’s rye output is used for human consumption. Winter barley is grown only in the southernmost territories and comprises only about 5 percent of total barley area.

Dry Fall Weather Hampered Winter Grain Establishment

Planting and establishment conditions were less than ideal for winter crops in parts of the Southern District due to four consecutive weeks of below-normal surface moisture during October and November. Satellite-derived vegetation indices from mid-November indicate delayed emergence and poor fall establishment in Krasnodar and Volgograd, but mostly above-normal conditions in Rostov and Stavropol territories.  Total precipitation from November through January was below normal throughout the Southern District.  Although subsequent above-normal precipitation is replenishing (or will likely replenish, in the case of current snow cover) the depleted soil moisture, overall subsurface reserves in the Southern District remain below normal.

Third Consecutive Year of Low Winter Losses

Winter losses have been remarkably low for the past two years: 7 percent in 2007/08 and 6 percent in 2008/09 compared to average winterkill of 14 percent for the previous ten years. Assuming that temperatures during the remainder of March do not fall to unusually low levels, the 2009/10 crop appears likely to survive the winter season without significant damage. Snow cover adequately protected winter crops during a brief cold snap in early January and no weather-related threats have occurred since that time. According to a report issued by SovEcon, an independent Moscow-based commodity-analysis group, 95 percent of Russia’s winter grains were in good or satisfactory condition in early March compared to 94 percent last year and 93 percent in 2007. Temperature data indicate that winter grains in Krasnodar had broken dormancy growth by early March, while crops in the remainder of European Russia were still dormant and still under snow.  

Winter Crops Will Likely Receive Spring Fertilizer Application

It remains to be seen whether the considerable financial difficulties currently faced by grain producers, from large agro-holding enterprises to small private farms, will substantially affect spring field work, but support for the agricultural sector remains a top State priority. In late 2008 the government announced that it will provide subsidies for both fuel and fertilizer, and has also reduced fertilizer-export subsidies in order to ensure adequate supplies of fertilizer to farms. Both measures should help prevent a significant year-to-year reduction in the fertilization of winter crops.

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available on IPAD’s Agricultural Production page, or at PSD Online.  The valuable contribution of Yelena Vassilieva, agricultural specialist at the USDA Office of Agricultural Affairs in Moscow, is gratefully acknowledged.