| Feb 8 2024 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Down on Lower Irrigated Area |
Australia’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 cotton production is forecast at 4.8 million 480-pound
bales, down 0.3 million bales or 6 percent from last month and 17 percent from last year. Harvested
area is estimated at 515,000 hectares (ha), up 50,000 ha or 11 percent from last month and down
135,000 ha or 21 percent from last year. Industry sources indicate lower irrigated area based on
survey data. Dryland cotton area is estimated higher due to favorable precipitation in the later
portion of the planting window. Earlier predictions of rainfall were expected below normal due to
El Niño. This pattern was observed through October, however, rainfall increased in November
through January. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 8 2023 | Australia Wheat: Production Forecast Higher Based on Government Estimates |
Australia wheat production for marketing year 2023/24 is estimated at 25.5 million metric tons
(mmt), up 1.0 mmt or 4 percent from last month, but down 15.0 mmt or 37 percent from last year’s
record. The production increase reflects late season precipitation that improved conditions in the
southern tier of the wheatbelt and are expected to offset reduced production in the northern tier of
New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. However, overall wheat yields are
estimated to be below average due to persistent dry conditions in key northern wheat growing
regions. Harvested area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last
month, and down 0.55 mha or 4 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.04 tons per hectare
(t/ha), up 5 percent from last month, but down 34 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Oct 12 2023 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Down on Lower Area |
Australia’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 cotton production is forecast at 5.1 million 480-pound bales, down 0.3 million bales or 6 percent from last month and 12 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 465,000 hectares (ha), down 50,000 ha or 10 percent from last month and down 185,000 ha or 28 percent from last year. Industry sources indicate lower planting intentions this season. Dryland cotton area is estimated lower due to extended dryness at sowing in major cotton producing areas of eastern Australia. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Oct 12 2023 | Australia Barley: Production Revised Lower |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year (MY) 2023/24 barley production at 9.7 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.3 mmt or 3 percent from last month, and down 4.4 mmt or 31 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 4.2 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, but up 2 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.31 tons per hectare (t/ha), down 3 percent from last month, and down 33 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Oct 12 2023 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Lower on Dry Conditions |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year (MY) 2023/24 wheat production at 24.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.5 mmt or 6 percent from last month, and down 15.2 mmt or 38 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at 12.6 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month but down 0.45 mha or 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.94 tons per hectare (t/ha), down 6 percent from last month, and down 36 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Sep 12 2023 | Australia Rapeseed: Production Revised Up |
Australia rapeseed production for marketing year 2023/24 is forecast at 5.1 million metric tons
(mmt), up 0.2 mmt or 4 percent from last month, and down 3.2 mmt or 38 percent from last year’s
record. Harvested area is estimated at 3.5 million hectares (mha), unchanged last month but down
0.4 mha or 10 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.46 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 4 percent
from last month, but down 31 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Sep 12 2023 | Australia Wheat: Production Forecast Lower After Extended Dryness |
Australia wheat production for marketing year 2023/24 is forecast at 26.0 million metric tons
(mmt), down 3.0 mmt or 10 percent from last month, and down 13.7 mmt or 34 percent from last
year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at 12.6 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha from last
month, but down 0.4 mha or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.06 tons per hectare
(t/ha), down 11 percent from last month, and down 32 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jul 12 2023 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Down on Lower Area |
Australia’s marketing year (MY) 2023/24 cotton production is forecast at 5.4 million 480-pound
bales, down 0.4 million bales or 7 percent from last month and last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 515,000 hectares (ha), down 135,000 ha or 21 percent from last month and last year.
Industry sources indicate lower planting intentions this season. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| May 12 2023 | Australia Wheat: MY 2023/24 Production Forecast 26 Percent Lower from Last Year’s Record Season |
Australia wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 29.0 million metric
tons (mmt), down 26 percent from last year’s record, but up 4 percent from the 5-year average.
Yield is forecast at 2.32 tons per hectare, down 23 percent from last year’s record, but up 1 percent
from the 5-year average. Total harvested area is forecast at 12.5 million hectares (mha), down 4
percent from last year, but up 7 percent from the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Mar 8 2023 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Up Due to Record Area |
Australia’s marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton production is forecast at 5.5 million 480-pound
bales, up 0.5 million bales from last month, but down 0.25 million bales or 4 percent from last
year. The production forecast is second only to the record set last season in MY 2021/22 and
similar to that of MY 2011/12. Harvested area is estimated at a record 675,000 hectares (ha), up
175,000 ha or 35 percent from last month, and up 75,000 ha or 13 percent from last year. Yield is
forecast at 1,774 kilograms per hectare, down 19 percent from last month and 15 percent from last
year. Yield is expected to decrease year-to-year because of an estimated increase in the share of
the total area sown to dryland cotton this season as compared to last. Dryland cotton yields are
substantially lower than irrigated yields. Irrigated cotton area comprises about 90 percent of
Australia’s total cotton production. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Feb 8 2023 | Australia Wheat: Record Production |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat production at a record 38.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 1.4 mmt or 4 percent from last month, and up 1.8 mmt or 5 percent from
last season’s record crop of 36.2 mmt. Harvested area is estimated at 13.0 million hectares (mha),
unchanged from last month, and up almost 0.3 mha or 2 percent from last year. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 9 2022 | Australia Barley: Production Revised Higher |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year (MY) 2022/23 barley production at 13.4 million metric
tons (mmt), up 0.7 mmt or 6 percent from last month, and down 0.5 mmt or 4 percent from last
year. Harvested area is estimated at 4.2 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, but
down 0.2 mmt or 5 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 9 2022 | Australia Wheat: Record Production |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat production at a record 36.6 million
metric tons (mmt), up 2.1 mmt or 6 percent from last month, and up 0.25 mmt or 1 percent from
last year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.0 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last
month, and down slightly from last year. (For
more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Nov 9 2022 | Australia Rapeseed: New Production Record |
USDA forecasts Australia rapeseed production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at a record 7.3
million metric tons (mmt), up 0.6 mmt or 9 percent from last month, and up 0.5 mmt or 8 percent
from the previous record of last year. Yield is forecast at 2.03 tons per hectare, up 9 percent from
last month, but down 4 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Nov 9 2022 | Australia Barley: Production Revised Higher |
USDA forecasts Australia marketing year (MY) 2022/23 barley production at 12.7 million metric
tons (mmt), up 0.5 mmt or 4 percent from last month, but down 1.2 mmt or 9 percent from last
year. Harvested area is estimated at 4.2 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, but
down 0.2 mha or 5 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.02 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 4
percent from last month, but down 4 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Nov 9 2022 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Higher |
USDA forecasts Australia marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat production at 34.5 million metric
tons (mmt), up 1.5 mmt or 5 percent from last month, but down 5 percent from last year’s record.
Harvested area is estimated at 13.1 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 0.1
mha, or less than 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.63 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 5
percent from last month, but down 6 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Sep 12 2022 | Australia Rapeseed: Production Near Record |
USDA forecasts Australia rapeseed production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 6.7 million
metric tons (mmt), up 0.6 mmt or 10 percent from last month, but down 62,000 metric tons or less
than 1 percent from last year’s record. Yield is forecast at 1.86 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from
last month, but down 12 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Aug 12 2022 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Higher |
USDA forecasts Australia marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat production at 33.0 million metric
tons (mmt), up 3.0 mmt or 10 percent from last month, but down 3.3 mmt or 9 percent from last
year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at 13.2 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last
month, and up 0.2 mha or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.50 tons per hectare (t/ha),
up 10 percent from last month, but down 10 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Mar 9 2022 | Australia Rice: Production Revised Down on Lower Area |
USDA estimates Australia rice production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at 470,000 metric
tons (milled basis), down 28 percent from last month, but up 62 percent above the 5-year average.
Harvested area is estimated at 65,000 hectares, down 28 percent from last month, but up 61 percent
above the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 10.05 tons per hectare (t/ha), (7.23 t/ha on a milled
basis), roughly equivalent to last month and 1 percent above the 5-year average. USDA has revised
its harvested area and production estimates for Australia rice, based on recently released official
government estimates from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and
Sciences (ABARES). (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 9 2022 | Australia Wheat: Production Achieves New Record |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year (MY) 2021/22 wheat production at a record 36.3 million
metric tons (mmt), up 2.3 mmt or 7 percent from last month, and up 3.0 mmt or 9 percent from
last year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.0 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mmt or 1 percent
from last month, but up 0.1 mmt or 1 percent from last year. Wheat yield is estimated at a record
2.79 tons per hectare, up 8 percent from last month and 7 percent above the previous record of
2.61 t/ha in MY 2016/17. The revisions were made based on the recently released official
government estimates from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and
Sciences (ABARES). (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Feb 9 2022 | Australia Sorghum: Production Revised Higher on Area and Yield |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year 2021/22 sorghum production at 2.0 million metric tons
(mmt), up 0.1 mmt or 5 percent from last month, and up 0.5 mmt or 33 percent from last year.
Area is estimated at 0.6 million hectares (mha), up 0.02 mha from last month, and up 0.09 mha or
18 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.33 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month
and 34 percent above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jan 12 2022 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Up Due to Increased Water Availability |
Australia’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 cotton production is forecast at 5.5 million 480-pound
bales, up 0.2 million bales from last month, and up 2.7 million bales or 96 percent from last year.
The production forecast matches the previous record set in MY 2011/12. Harvested area is
estimated at 625,000 hectares (ha), up 25,000 ha from last month, and up 350,000 ha or 127 percent
from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,916 kilograms per hectare, down slightly from last month but
down 14 percent from last year. Yield is expected to decrease year-to-year because of a forecast
increase in the share of the total area sown to dryland cotton this season as compared to last.
Dryland cotton yields are substantially lower than irrigated yields, and the difference widens in low rainfall years. Irrigated cotton area comprises about 90 percent of Australia’s total cotton
production. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 9 2021 | Australia Rapeseed: Record Production |
USDA forecasts Australia rapeseed production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at a record 5.5
million metric tons (mmt), up 0.7 mmt or 15 percent from last month, and up 1.0 mmt or 22 percent
from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.83 tons per hectare, up 15 percent from last month, but down
slightly from last year. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 9 2021 | Australia Wheat: Record Production |
USDA estimates Australia marketing year (MY) 2021/22 wheat production at a record 34.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 2.5 mmt or 8 percent from last month, and up 0.7 mmt or 2 percent from
last year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.1 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month,
but up 0.2 mha or 2 percent from last year. Wheat yield is estimated at 2.60 tons per hectare, up 8
percent from last month, and almost matching the record yield in MY 2016/17 (2.61 t/ha). (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Nov 9 2021 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Up Due to Increased Water Storage |
Australia’s marketing year 2021/22 cotton production is forecast at 5.3 million 480-pound bales,
up 0.6 million bales from last month, and up 2.5 million bales or 89 percent from last year.
Harvested area is forecast at 600,000 hectares (ha), up 25,000 ha from last month, and up 325,000
ha or 118 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,923 kilograms per hectare, up 8 percent
from last month. Yield is expected to increase because of a forecast decrease in the share of the
total area sown to dryland cotton this season as compared to last. Irrigated cotton yields are
substantially higher than dryland yields, and the difference widens in low rainfall years. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Sep 10 2021 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Higher |
USDA forecasts Australia marketing year (MY) 2021/22 wheat production at 31.5 million metric
tons (mmt), up 1.5 mmt or 5 percent from last month, but down 1.5 mmt or 5 percent from last
year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at 13.1 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last
month, but up 0.1 mha or 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.40 tons per hectare, up 6
percent from last month, but down 6 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
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| Aug 12 2021 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Higher |
USDA forecasts Australia marketing year (MY) 2021/22 wheat production at 30.0 million metric
tons (mmt), up 1.5 mmt or 5 percent from last month, but down 3.0 mmt or 9 percent from last
year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at 13.2 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha from last
month, and up 0.2 mha or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.27 tons per hectare (t/ha),
up 4 percent from last month, but down 11 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jul 12 2021 | Australia Rice: Substantial Production Increase Over Last Season |
Australia rice production for marketing year 2021/22 is forecast at 800,000 metric tons (mt) on a
paddy basis, up 100,000 mt (14 percent) from last month and up 342,000 mt or 75 percent from
last season. Area is forecast at 80,000 hectares (ha), up 10,000 ha from last month and up 34,000
ha from last season. Yield is forecast at 10.00 metric tons per hectare, similar to last year, and 3
percent above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jul 12 2021 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Higher |
USDA forecasts Australia marketing year 2021/22 wheat production at 28.5 million metric tons
(mmt), up 1.5 mmt or 6 percent from last month, but down 4.5 mmt or 14 percent from last year’s
record. Area is estimated at 13.1 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last month, but up
0.1 mha or 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.18 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 6 percent
from last month, but down 14 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jun 10 2021 | Australia Cotton: MY 2020/21 Production Revised Up on Harvest Results; Up 350 Percent
from the Previous Year |
Australia marketing year (MY) 2020/21 cotton production is estimated at 2.8 million 480-pound
bales (0.610 million metric tons), up 0.3 million bales from last month, and up 2.2 million bales
or roughly 350 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 275,000 hectares,
unchanged from last month, but up nearly 360 percent from the previous year. Yield is forecast at
2,217 kilograms per hectare, up 12 percent from last month, and 23 percent above the 5-year
average. Yield is revised up based on better than expected harvest results to date. Harvest progress
was estimated at 50 percent complete as of May 27. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jun 10 2021 | Australia Rapeseed: Production Revised Up |
USDA forecasts Australia marketing year 2021/22 rapeseed production at 3.7 million metric tons
(mmt), up 0.2 mmt or 6 percent from last month, but down 0.3 mmt or 8 percent from last year.
Area is estimated at 2.8 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha or 4 percent from last month, and up
0.4 mha or 17 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.32 tons per hectare (t/ha), down 21
percent from last year’s near record yield. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Apr 9 2021 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Down on Excessive Rains |
Australia marketing year 2020/21 cotton production is forecast at 2.5 million 480-pound bales
(0.544 million metric tons), down 0.1 million bales from last month, and up 1.9 million bales or
300 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 275,000 hectares, unchanged from last
month, but up nearly 360 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,979 kilograms per hectare,
down 4 percent from last month, but 10 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is revised down
due to damaged and waterlogged cotton resulting from recent excessive rainfall. Cotton bolls were
beginning to open in growing areas along the Queensland and New South Wales border when the
excessive rains and flooding occurred in late March. These and other areas of early planted cotton
will be subject to crop losses due to boll rot. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 9 2021 | Australia Wheat: Production Reaches a New Record |
USDA estimates Australia 2020/21 wheat production at a record 33.0 million metric tons (mmt),
up 3.0 mmt or 10 percent from last month and up 17.8 mmt or 117 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 13.0 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month but up 2.8 mha or 27 percent
from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.54 tons per hectare (t/ha), second only to the 2016/17 season
record of 2.61 t/ha. Yield is up 10 percent from last month, and up 70 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Mar 9 2021 | Australia Sorghum: Production Revised Lower but Significantly Above Last Year |
USDA estimates Australia 2020/21 sorghum production at 1.45 million metric tons (mmt), down
0.25 mmt or 15 percent from last month, but up 1.15 mmt or 383 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 0.51 million hectares (mha), down 0.09 mha from last month, but up 0.36 mha or 240
percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.84 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 42 percent from last
year’s drought-ravaged crop. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jan 12 2021 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Up on Improved Water Availability |
The 2020/21 Australia cotton crop production is forecast at 2.5 million 480-pound bales (0.544
million metric tons), up 0.1 million bales from last month, and up 1.875 million or 300 percent
from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 275,000 hectares, unchanged from last month, but
up nearly 360 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,979 kilograms per hectare, 10 percent
above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov).
|
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| Dec 10 2020 | Australia Wheat: Second Largest Crop on Record; Production Nearly Double Last Year |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2020/21 wheat crop at 30.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.5 mmt or
5 percent from last month, and up 15.2 mmt or 97 percent from last year. At 30.0 mmt, this is the
second largest crop on record after the 31.8 mmt crop harvested in 2016/17. Harvested area is
estimated at 13.0 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, and up 2.8 mha or 27 percent
from last year. Wheat yield is estimated at 2.31 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last month and
up 55 percent from 2019/20. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 10 2020 | Australia Rice: Substantial Increase from Last Year |
Australia rice production for 2020/21 is estimated at 840,000 metric tons (mt) on a paddy basis,
up 423,000 mt from last month and up 787,000 mt or 1,485 percent from last season. Area is
estimated at 80,000 hectares (ha), up 40,000 ha from last month and up 74,000 ha from last season.
Yield is estimated at 10.50 metric tons per hectare, up 19 percent from last year, and 10 percent
above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Nov 10 2020 | Australia Cotton: Production Revised Up on Improved Water Storage Levels |
The 2020/21 Australia cotton crop production is forecast at 2.5 million bales, up 0.4 million bales
from last month, and up 1.9 million bales or 300 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast
at 325,000 hectares (ha), up 25,000 ha from last month, and up 265,000 ha or 442 percent from
last year. Yield is forecast at 1,675 kilograms per hectare. Yield is expected to decrease because
of a forecast increase in the share of the total area sown to dryland cotton this season as compared
to last. Irrigated cotton yields are substantially higher than dryland yields, and the difference
widens in low rainfall years. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Sep 11 2020 | Australia Wheat: Production Up 88 Percent After Last Year’s Drought |
Australia wheat production for 2020/21 is forecast at 28.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.5 mmt
from last month and up 13.3 mmt (88 percent) from last season. Area is estimated at 13.0 million
hectares (mha), unchanged from last month but up 2.8 mha from last year. Yield is estimated at
2.19 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), up 10 percent from last month, up 47 percent from last year,
and 13 percent above the 5-year average of 1.94 t/ha. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| May 12 2020 | Australia Cotton: Rains Help Refill Reservoirs; Forecast 2020/2021 Area Up 200 Percen |
USDA forecasts 2020/21 Australia cotton production at 1.7 million 480-pound bales, up 1.08
million (172 percent) from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 180,000 hectares, up 200 percent
from last year but 52 percent
below the 5-year average.
Yield is forecast at 2,056
kilograms per hectare, 14
percent above the 5-year
average. (For
more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Apr 9 2020 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Down 72 Percent from Last Year |
USDA forecasts 2019/20 Australia cotton production at 0.625 million 480-pound bales, down
50,000 bales (7 percent) from last month and 1.58 million (72 percent) from last year. Harvested
area, essentially all irrigated, is estimated at 60,000 hectares, unchanged from last month, and
down 84 percent from last year. Below-normal precipitation during the first half of the growing
season and a subsequent lack of soil moisture for dryland sowing operations resulted in the 84
percent decrease in cotton area. Additionally, irrigation water availability has been severely
limited. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 10 2020 | Australia Barley: Production Revised Higher |
USDA estimates Australia 2019/20 barley production at 8.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.6 mmt
(7 percent) from last month, and up 0.5 mmt (6 percent) from last year. Harvested area is estimated
at 3.95 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but 6 percent above last year. Harvest results
indicate better than previously anticipated yields in Victoria and southern South Australia. Yield
is estimated at 2.23 tons per hectare, based on the latest information from the Australian Bureau
of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 10 2020 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Lower |
USDA estimates Australia 2019/20 wheat production at 15.2 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.4 mmt (3 percent) from last month, and down 2.1 mmt (12 percent) from last year. Harvested area is expected to total 10.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but only 0.6 percent below last year. Yield is estimated at 1.51 tons per hectare, 26 percent below the 5-year average, largely based on the latest information from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jan 10 2020 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Lower |
USDA estimates Australia 2019/20 wheat production at 15.6 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.5
mmt (3 percent) from last month, and down 1.7 mmt (10 percent) from last year. Harvested area
is expected to total 10.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month, and less than 1 percent
below last year. Yield is forecast at 1.54 tons per hectare, 24 percent below the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jan 10 2020 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Down 69 Percent from Last Year |
USDA forecasts 2019/20 Australia cotton production at 0.675 million 480-pound bales, down
175,000 bales (21 percent) from last month and 1.53 million (69 percent) from last year. Harvested
area, essentially all irrigated, is estimated at 60,000 hectares, down 25 percent from last month,
and 84 percent from last year. Below normal precipitation during the past six months and a lack
of soil moisture for dryland sowing operations resulted in the 84 percent decrease in cotton area.
Additionally, irrigation water availability has been severely depleted. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 10 2019 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Down 61 Percent from Last Year |
USDA forecasts 2019/20 Australia cotton production at 0.85 million 480-pound bales, down
350,000 bales (29 percent) from last month and 1.35 million (61 percent) from last year. Harvested
area, mainly irrigated, is estimated at 80,000 hectares, down 53 percent from last month, and 79
percent from last year. Below-normal precipitation during the past six months and a current lack
of soil moisture for dryland sowing operations resulted in the 53 percent decrease in cotton area.
Additionally, irrigation water availability has been severely depleted. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 10 2019 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Lower |
USDA estimates Australia 2019/20 wheat production at 16.1 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.1
mmt (6 percent) from last month, and down 1.2 mmt (7 percent) from last year. Harvested area is
expected to total 10.1 million hectares (mha), down 0.5 mha (5 percent) from last month, but only
0.6 percent below last year. Yield is forecast at 1.59 tons per hectare, 21 percent below the 5-year
average. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Nov 8 2019 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Down after Dry October |
USDA forecasts Australia’s 2019/20 wheat production at 17.2 million metric tons (mmt), down
0.8 mmt (4 percent) from last month, and down 0.1 mmt (1 percent) from last year. Harvested
area is expected to total 10.6 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha (1 percent) from last month,
but up 0.4 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.62 tons per hectare, 20 percent
below the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Oct 10 2019 | Australia Wheat: Production Forecast Revised Down |
USDA forecasts Australia’s
2019/20 wheat production at
18.0 million metric tons
(mmt), down 1.0 mmt (5
percent) from last month, but
up 0.7 mmt (4 percent) from
last year. Harvested area is
expected to total 10.7 million
hectares (mha), unchanged
from last month, but up 0.5
mha (5 percent) from last
year. Yield is forecast at 1.68
tons per hectare, 17 percent
below the 5-year average. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Oct 10 2019 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Down 45 Percent From Last Year |
USDA forecasts 2019/20 Australia cotton production at 1.2 million 480-pound bales, down
200,000 bales (14 percent) from last month and down 1.0 million (45 percent) from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at 170,000 hectares, down 15 percent from last month, and down 55
percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,537 kilograms per hectare, 16 percent below the 5-
year average. The 55 percent decrease in cotton area from last year is due to the decrease in irrigation water availability that was exacerbated by below normal precipitation during the past six
months. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Sep 12 2019 | Australia Cotton: Area Forecast 47 Percent Below Last Year |
USDA forecasts 2019/20 Australia cotton production at 1.4 million 480-pound bales, down 0.5
million bales (26 percent) from last month and down 0.8 million (36 percent) from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at 0.2 million hectares, down 23 percent from last month, and down
47 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,524 kilograms per hectare, down 4 percent from
last month and 17 percent below the 5-year average. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Sep 12 2019 | Australia Rapeseed: Lower Production Due to Dry Conditions |
USDA forecasts Australia’s
2019/20 rapeseed crop at 2.3
million metric tons (mmt),
down 0.3 mmt (12 percent)
from last month, but up 0.1
mmt (6 percent) from last
year. Area is estimated at 1.9
million hectares (mha), down
0.1 mha from last month, and
slightly below last year. Yield
is forecast at 1.21 tons per
hectare, up 5 percent from last
year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Sep 12 2019 | Australia Wheat: Production Forecast Revised Down Due to Drought in Eastern Australia |
USDA forecasts Australia’s 2019/20 wheat production at 19.0 million metric tons (mmt), down
2.0 mmt (10 percent) from last month, but up 1.7 mmt (10 percent) from last year. Harvested area
is now expected to total 10.7 million hectares (mha), down 0.3 mha from last month, but up 0.5
mha (5 percent) from last year. Expected yield is estimated at 1.78 tons per hectare or 4 percent
above last year. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jul 11 2019 | Australia Rapeseed: Dry Conditions Persist in Major Growing Regions |
Australia rapeseed production for 2019/20 is forecast at 2.6 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.1
mmt (30 percent) from last month, but up 19 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 2.0 million
hectares (mha), down 26 percent from last month, but up 6 percent from last year. Yield is forecast
at 1.30 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month and 1 percent below the five-year average. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 8 2019 | Australia Sorghum: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Prospects |
Australia sorghum production for 2018/19 is estimated at 1.3 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.7
mmt or 35 percent from last month, and down 0.14 mmt or 10 percent from last year. Harvested
area is estimated at 0.54 million hectares (mha), down 28 percent from last month, but up 0.09
mha or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.41 tons per hectare, down 10 percent from
last month and 16 percent below the five-year average. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov)
|
|
| Mar 8 2019 | Australia Cotton: Production Estimate Down 48 Percent from Last Year |
The 2018/19 Australia cotton crop is estimated at 2.5 million 480-pound bales (0.544 million
metric tons), down 0.1 million bales or 4 percent from last month and down 2.3 million bales or
48 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 0.3 million hectares, unchanged from last
month, but down 43 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,814 kilograms per hectare, 6
percent below the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Feb 8 2019 | Australia Cotton: Production Estimate Increased |
The 2018/19 Australia cotton crop is estimated at 2.6 million 480-pound bales (0.566 million
metric tons), up 0.1 million bales from December but down 2.1 million or 45 percent from last
year. Harvested area is estimated
at 0.3 million hectares, unchanged
from December, but down 43
percent from last year. Yield is
forecast at 1,887 kilograms per
hectare, 2 percent below the 5-
year average. Yield is expected to
increase from last year because of
an estimated decrease in the share
of the area sown to lower-yielding
dryland cotton. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Feb 8 2019 | Australia Sorghum: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Prospects |
Australia sorghum production for 2018/19 is estimated at 2.0 million tons (mmt), down 0.2 mmt
or 9 percent from December, but up 0.6 mmt or 39 percent from last year. Area is estimated at
0.75 million hectares (mha),
unchanged from December, but up
0.22 mha or 41 percent from last
year. Yield is forecast at 2.67 tons
per hectare, down 9 percent from
December and 7 percent below the
five-year average. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov,)
|
|
| Dec 11 2018 | Australia Wheat: Estimated Production Revised Down |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2018/19 wheat crop at 17.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.5 mmt
(3 percent) from last month, and down 4.3 mmt (20 percent) from last year. Harvested area is expected to total 10.0 million hectares
(mha), down 0.8 mha from last month
and down 2.25 mha (18 percent) from
last year. Yield is forecast at 1.70 tons
per hectare, 17 percent below the 5-year
average. Persistent dryness and subsoil
moisture deficits in major portions of
Australia’s winter crop region
contributed to an estimated 17-percent
drop in yield from the 5-year average.
Precipitation has been well below
average since major sowing operations
commenced in May. Satellite-derived
seasonal vegetation indices from October
reveal the sharp differences in crop
conditions between Western Australia
and New South Wales, the two largest wheat producing states. Winter crops are sown in May and
June. Harvest begins in November and is finished by the end of December. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 11 2018 | Australia Rice: Estimated Production Revised Down 76 Percent from Last Year |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2018/19 rice crop at 153,000 metric tons on a rough basis (110,000
tons milled), down 0.3 mmt (73 percent) from last month, and down 340,000 tons (76 percent)
from last year. Harvested area is expected to total 15,000 hectares, down 40,000 hectares from
last month and down 45,000 hectares (75 percent) from last year. Yield is forecast at 10.20 tons
per hectare. The sharp decrease in
estimated area is attributed to very
limited availability of affordable
water for irrigation and reduced water
allocations in southern New South
Wales. Water storage is down due to
several months of drought in the
catchment region. Rice is
predominately produced in southern
New South Wales as an irrigated
crop. The Murray River and the
Murrumbidgee River each contribute
nearly half of the water used for
irrigation. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Nov 8 2018 | Australia Rapeseed: Estimated Production Revised Down |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2018/19 rapeseed crop at 2.6 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.3
mmt (10 percent) from last month, and down 1.1 mmt (29 percent) from last year. Area is
estimated at 2.3 million hectares (mha), down 50,000 hectares from last month, and down 0.4
mha (15 percent) from last year. The yield estimate of 1.13 tons per hectare is nearly the lowest
in the past ten years. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Nov 8 2018 | Australia Wheat: Production Estimate Lowered |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2018/19 wheat crop at 17.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.0
mmt (5 percent) from last month, and down 3.8 mmt (18 percent) from last year. Harvested area
is expected to total 10.8 million hectares (mha), down 0.2 mha from last month and down 1.45
mha (12 percent) from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.62 tons per hectare (t/ha), down from 1.68
t/ha last month and 21 percent below the 5-year average. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Oct 11 2018 | Australia Wheat: Forecast Production Revised Down |
USDA forecasts Australia’s 2018/19 wheat crop at 18.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.5
mmt (8 percent) from last month, and down 2.8 mmt (13 percent) from last year. Harvested area
is expected to total 11.0 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and down 1.25 mha
(10 percent) from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.68 tons per hectare, 18 percent below the 5-year
average. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Oct 11 2018 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Decreased |
USDA estimates 2018/19 Australia cotton production at 2.5 million 480-pound bales, down 0.5
million bales from last month and down 2.2 million or 47 percent from last year. Harvested area
is estimated at 0.3 million
hectares, down 20 percent from
last month, and down 43 percent
from last year. Yield is forecast
at 1,814 kilograms per hectare,
up 4 percent from last month but
6 percent below the 5-year
average. The overall yield
increased from last month
because of a forecast decrease in
the share of the area sown to
lower-yielding dryland cotton.
Irrigated cotton yields are
substantially higher than dryland
yields and the difference widens
in low-rainfall years. On average
about 90 percent of Australia’s total cotton comes from irrigated areas. Dryland planting tends to
vary with the seasonal weather forecast and prices at sowing. The notable factor this season is
the decrease in irrigation water availability that was exacerbated by below normal precipitation
during the month of September. Sorghum and cotton are the two dominant summer crops in
eastern Australia. Cotton sowing commences in October and harvest begins in April. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Sep 12 2018 | Australia Wheat: Forecast Production Revised Down |
USDA forecasts Australia’s 2018/19 wheat crop at 20.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 2.0
mmt or 9 percent from last month, and down 1.3 mmt or 6 percent from last year. Harvested
area is now expected to total 11.0 million hectares (mha), down 1.0 mha from last month, and
down 1.25 mha or 10 percent from last year. Expected yield is estimated at 1.82 tons per hectare,
essentially the same as last year. (For more information,
please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jul 12 2018 | Australia Wheat: Forecast Production Revised Down |
USDA forecasts Australia’s 2018/19 wheat crop
at 22.0 million metric tons, down 2.0 million or
8 percent from last month, but up 0.7 million or
3 percent from last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 12.0 million hectares, down 0.2
million or 2 percent from last month, and down
0.25 million or 2 percent from last year. Yield is
forecast at 1.83 tons per hectare, up 5 percent
from last year. (For more information, please
contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| May 10 2018 | Australia Barley Production: 2018/19 Area Up; Wheat Flat |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2018/19 wheat crop at 24.0 million metric tons, up 2.5 million or 12 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, down less than 1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.97 tons per hectare, up 12 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 8 2018 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Increased |
The 2017/18 Australia cotton crop is estimated at 4.7 million 480-pound bales (1.02
million metric tons), up 0.3 million bales from last month and up 0.65 million or 16
percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 0.530 million hectares (mha), up
0.95 mha from last month, but down 9 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,931
kilograms per hectare, 2
percent below the 5-
year average. Yield is
expected to decrease
from last month
because of a forecast
increase in the share of
the area sown to loweryielding
dryland cotton.
Irrigated cotton 0.95 mha from last month, but down 9 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,931
kilograms per hectare, 2
percent below the 5-
year average. Yield is
expected to decrease
from last month
because of a forecast
increase in the share of
the area sown to loweryielding
dryland cotton. (For more
information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Feb 8 2018 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Reduced Slightly |
The 2017/18 Australia cotton crop is
forecast by USDA at 4.4 million 480-
pound bales (958,000 metric tons),
down 0.2 million bales from last
month but still up 0.35 million or 9
percent from last year. Harvested
area is estimated at 0.435 million
hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from
last month, and down 25 percent
from last year. Yield is forecast at
2,202 kilograms per hectare, 12
percent above the 5-year average.
Yield is expected to increase from
last year because of a forecast
decrease in the share of the area
sown to lower-yielding dryland
cotton. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Dec 12 2017 | Australia Wheat: Production Estimate Unchanged |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2017/18 wheat production at 21.5 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged from last month but down 12.0 mmt or 36 percent from last year. Area is estimated
at 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last
year. The yield estimate of 1.72 tons per hectare is the second lowest in the past ten seasons. The
lowest yield in the last decade occurred in the severe drought year of 2006/07. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Nov 9 2017 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Reduced Slightly |
The 2017/18 Australia cotton crop is forecast by USDA at 4.8 million 480 pound bales, down 0.2
million bales from last month but
up 0.75 million or 19 percent
from last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 0.48 million
hectares, unchanged from last
month, but down 17 percent from
last year. Yield is forecast at
2,117 kilograms per hectare, 6
percent above the 5-year average.
Yield is expected to increase
from last year because of a
forecast decrease in the share of
the area sown to lower-yielding
dryland cotton. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Oct 12 2017 | Australia Winter Crops: Lower Forecast for Wheat and Rapeseed Production |
Australia’s 2017/18 wheat production is estimated at 21.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.0
mmt or 4 percent from last month, and down 12.0 mmt or 36 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 12.5 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, up 0.1 million or 1 percent
from last year. The yield estimate of 1.72 tons per hectare (t/ha) is the second lowest in the past
ten seasons. The two lowest yields occurred in the severe drought years of 2002/03 and 2006/07. (For more information, please contact
James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov)
|
|
| Jul 12 2017 | Australia Winter Crops: Lower Forecast for Wheat and Rapeseed Production |
Persistent dryness and a current subsoil moisture deficit in a major portion of Australia’s winter
crop region contributed to a lower area, an estimated 9-percent drop in wheat yield, and an 8-
percent drop in rapeseed yield from the 5-year average. Precipitation has been well below
average since major sowing operations commenced in May. Winter crops are sown in May and
June. Satellite-derived vegetation
indices (the normalized difference
vegetation index or NDVI) indicated
below-average crop health from May
through June for all major winter crop
producing states.
|
|
| May 10 2017 | Australia Wheat: 2017/18 Production Drops by 29 Percent |
Wheat production for 2017/18 is forecast at 25.0 million tons, down 10.0 million or 29 percent
from last year. The large year-to-year decline is based on expectations of yields returning to
more average levels. In 2016/17 favorable weather across all major Australian grain belts
provided near perfect conditions for plant establishment, reproduction, and grain fill, resulting in
a record yield of 2.71 tons per hectare. Yield is forecast near the 30-year trend of 1.95 tons per
hectare, 76 percent below last year. Area is forecast at 12.8 million hectares, 0.1 million below
last year. Current conditions are favorable in South Australia and Victoria following abundant
rainfall in most growing areas. Portions of Western Australia and New South Wales need
additional rainfall.
|
|
| Apr 11 2017 | Australia Cotton: Production Estimate Revised Down |
The 2016/17 Australia cotton
crop is forecast at 4.4 million
bales, down 0.1 million from last
month and but up 1.55 million or
54 percent from last year.
Harvested area is forecast at
580,000 hectares, up 30,000
from last month, and up 86
percent from last year. Yield is
forecast at 1,652 kilograms per
hectare, 22 percent below the 5-
year average. Yield is expected
to decrease from last year
because area sown to dryland
cotton has increased.
|
|
| Mar 9 2017 | Australia Sorghum: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Prospects |
USDA forecasts Australia sorghum production for 2016/17 at 1.2 million tons, down 0.3 million
or 20 percent from last month, and down 0.8 million or 41 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 0.44 million hectares, down 0.06 million from last month, and down 0.24 million or
35 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.73 tons per hectare, down 9 percent from last
month and 9 percent below last year. The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to decrease
due to higher planted area for cotton.
|
|
| Mar 9 2017 | Australia Cotton: Forecast Production Unchanged |
The 2016/17 Australia cotton crop is forecast at 4.5 million bales, unchanged from last month
and up 1.65 million or 58 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 550,000 hectares,
unchanged from last month, and up 76 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,781
kilograms per hectare, 16 percent below the 5-year average. Yield is expected to decrease from
last year because of a forecast increase in the share of the area sown to dryland cotton.
|
|
| Mar 9 2017 | Australia Winter Crops: Record Crop Production for Wheat, Barley and Rapeseed |
For the season, precipitation was above
average since sowing operations
commenced in May. Soil moisture in
virtually all winter cropping areas, including
wheat, barley and rapeseed, was markedly
improved from the relatively dry conditions,
which prevailed during much of the
previous year. Growing conditions were
ideal in most regions with the exception of
localized minor losses resulting from
flooding in southeast Australia and frosts in
Western Australia. Winter crops are sown in
May and June. Harvest begins in November
and is finished by the end of December.
|
|
| Dec 9 2016 | Australia Wheat and Barley: Record Crop Production |
USDA estimates Australia’s 2016/17 wheat crop at a record 33.0 million metric tons, up 4.7
million or 17 percent from last month, and up 8.5 million or 35 percent from last
year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.0 million hectares, up 100,000 or nearly 1 percent from
last month, and up 200,000 or less than 2 percent from last year. Wheat yield is estimated at a
record 2.54 tons per hectare, up 15 percent from last month and up 33 percent from 2015/16.
|
|
| Dec 9 2016 | Australia Cotton: Production Forecast Revised Upward Down Under |
USDA forecasts Australia’s 2016/17 cotton crop at 4.5 million bales, up 0.5 million or 13
percent from last month, and up 1.9 million bales or 73 percent from last year. Harvested area is
forecast at 525,000 hectares, up 50,000 hectares or 11 percent from last month, and up 213,000
or 68 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,866 kilograms per hectare. The increase in
area is driven by an increase in both irrigated and dryland cotton plantings. This will be the first
time in three years that a significant area has been planted to dryland cotton.
|
|
| Oct 12 2016 | Australia Cotton: Forecast Production Revised Upward |
The 2016/17 cotton crop is forecast at 4.0 million bales, up 0.5 million or 14 percent from last
month, and up 1.4 million or 54 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 475,000
hectares, up 65,000 hectares or 16 percent from last month, and up 163,000 or 52 percent from
last year. Yield is forecast at 1,833 kilograms per hectare. Yield is expected to decrease because
of a forecast increase in the share of the total area sown to dryland cotton. Irrigated cotton yields
are substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference widens in low rainfall years. On
average about 90 percent of Australia’s total cotton production comes from irrigated areas.
|
|
| Oct 12 2016 | Australia Wheat and Rapeseed: Wheat is at Record Yield; Rapeseed is Near Record Yield |
USDA estimates 2016/17 Australia wheat production at 28.3 million metric tons, up slightly
from last month and up 16 percent from 2015/16. Area harvested is estimated at 12.9 million
hectares, up 0.1 million hectares from last month and up slightly from 2015/16. USDA estimates
wheat yield at a record 2.19 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 15 percent
from 2015/16. Rapeseed production is estimated at 3.7 million metric tons, up 24 percent from
last year. Area harvested is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, up 6 percent from 2015/16. Yield
is estimated at 1.48 tons per hectare, up 10 percent from last month and up 17 percent from
2015/16, and the highest in the past 10 years.
|
|
| Sep 12 2016 | Australia Wheat: Estimated Production Revised Upward |
Australia wheat production for 2016/17 is forecast at 27.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.0 mmt
from last month and up 3.0 mmt from last season. Area is estimated at 12.8 million hectares
(mha), unchanged from last month and unchanged from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.15
metric tons per hectare (t/ha), up 3.9 percent from last month, up 12 percent from last year, and
10.3 percent above the 5-year average of 1.95 t/ha. FAS personnel observed good growing
conditions during late August and early September, in Queensland and Western Australia.
|
|
| Sep 12 2016 | Australia Cotton: Estimated Production Revised Upward |
The 2016/17 cotton crop is forecast at 3.5 million bales, up 0.7 million or 25 percent from last
month, and up 0.9 million or 35 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.41 million
hectares, up 90,000 hectares or 28 percent from last month, and up 98,000 or 31 percent from
last year. Yield is forecast at 1859 kilograms per hectare. The increase in area is driven by an
increase in both irrigated and dryland cotton plantings. This will be the first time in three years that a significant area has been planted to dryland cotton. Dryland cotton planting tends to vary
with the seasonal weather forecast and conditions, and prices at sowing. This season’s aboveaverage
rainfall has increased water storage for irrigated cotton and provided adequate soil
moisture in dryland cotton areas. Also, higher cotton prices relative to sorghum will shift
sorghum area to cotton. Irrigated cotton area is forecast to increase, reflecting an increase in
water storage levels in reservoirs supplying cotton growing regions as compared to last season’s
level. Irrigated cotton areas produce on average about 90 percent of Australia’s total cotton
production. Irrigated cotton yields are substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference
widens in low rainfall years
|
|
| Aug 12 2016 | Australia Rice: Substantial Increase from Last Year |
Australia rice production for 2016/17 is forecast at 0.625 million metric tons (mmt) on a paddy
basis, up 0.069 mmt from last month and up 0.375 mmt or 60 percent from last season. Area is
forecast at 0.060 million hectares (mha), up 0.01 mha from last month and up 0.037 mha from
last season. Yield is forecast at 10.42 metric tons per hectare, down 6.3 percent from last month,
and down 4.1 percent from last year, and 2.7 percent above the 5-year average. Rice sowing
commences in September and recent rainfall has resulted in favorable soil moisture and reservoir
recharge. Precipitation has been above average since May in southern New South Wales, the
main rice-producing area.
|
|
| Aug 12 2016 | Australia Wheat: Favorable Early Season Prospects |
Australia wheat production for 2016/17 is
forecast at 26.5 million metric tons (mmt),
up 1.0 mmt from last month and up 2.0
mmt from last season. Harvested area is
forecasted at 12.8 million hectares (mha),
unchanged from last month and unchanged
from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.07
metric tons per hectare, up 4.0 percent from
last month, up 8.4 percent from last year,
and 6.0 percent above the 5-year average.
The yield forecast is based on aboveaverage
precipitation since sowing
operations commenced in May.
|
|
| Jul 12 2016 | Australia Wheat: Production Forecast Increased |
Australia wheat production for 2016/17 is forecast at 25.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.5 mmt
from last month and up 1.0 mmt from last season. Area is estimated at 12.8 million hectares
(mha) compared to 13.0 mha last month and 12.9 mha last year. Recent data from Australia
Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) led to the revised area
estimate. Yield is estimated at 1.99 metric tons per hectare, up 3.6 percent from last month, up
4.2 percent from last year, and 2.0 percent above the 5-year average. The yield forecast is based
on favorable conditions for crop establishment. Precipitation has been above-average since May in most major wheat areas according to weather station data in Australia.
|
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| Mar 9 2016 | Australia Wheat: Estimated Production Reduced Based on Revised Area Data |
Australia wheat production for 2015/16 is estimated 24.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.5
million from last month, but up 1.4 million from last season. Harvested area is estimated at 12.8
million hectares (mha) compared to 13.8 mha last month and 12.2 mha last year. Revised data
from Australia Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) led to
the lower area estimate. Yield is estimated at 1.92 metric tons per hectare, up 2.1 percent from
last month and up 1.1 percent from last year, but 2.5 percent below the 5-year average.
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| Dec 9 2015 | Australia Wheat: Production Estimate Unchanged |
USDA estimates 2015/16 Australia wheat production at 26.0 million tons, unchanged from last
month and up 2.3 million tons from last year. Area is forecast at 13.8 million hectares,
unchanged from last month and from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.88 tons per hectare which is
3.0 percent below the 5-year average of 1.93 tons per hectare.
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| Dec 9 2015 | Australia Cotton: Dryland Area Increases |
USDA forecasts Australia’s
2015/16 cotton crop at 2.4
million bales, up 0.3 million
bales from last month, and up
0.1 million bales from last year.
Harvested area is forecast at
285,000 hectares, up 60,000
hectares from last month, and
up 80,000 hectares from last
year. Yield is forecast at 1,833
kilograms per hectare.
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| Nov 10 2015 | Australia Rapeseed: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Prospects |
USDA forecasts 2015/16 Australia rapeseed production at 3.2 million metric tons, down 0.1
million tons from last month, and down 0.2 million tons from last year. Area is forecast at 2.5
million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.2 million from last year. Yield is
forecast at 1.28 tons per hectare, essentially matching the 5-year average.
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| Nov 10 2015 | Australia Wheat: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Forecast |
USDA forecasts 2015/16 Australia wheat production at 26.0 million metric tons, down 1.0
million tons from last month, and up 2.3 million tons from last year. Area is forecast at 13.8
million hectares, unchanged from both
last month and last year. Yield is
forecast at 1.88 tons per hectare which is
3 percent below the 5-year average.
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| Oct 10 2014 | Australia Wheat: Variable Growing Conditions Lower Production |
Australia wheat production for 2014/15 is forecast at 25.0 million tons, down 0.5 million tons or
2.0 percent from last month, and down 2.0 million tons or 7.4 percent from last year. The area
forecast is 13.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million or 2.2 percent
from last year. Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have
plagued the Australian wheat producing states at varying times. Yield is forecast at 1.81 tons per
hectare, which is below the 5-year average of 1.90 tons per hectare. September precipitation is
the most influential factor for determining Australia’s wheat yield. Nationwide, the wheat crop
faces mixed prospects heading into spring, reflecting below-average September rainfall in the
eastern wheat belt while Western Australia, the largest producing state, received beneficial rains.
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| Nov 10 2014 | Australia Wheat: Persistent Dry Conditions Lower Production |
Australia wheat production for 2014/15 is forecast at 24.0 million tons, down 1.0 million tons or
4.0 percent from last month, and down 3.0 million tons or 11 percent from last year. The area
forecast is 13.8 million hectares,
unchanged from last month but up 0.3
million hectares or 2.1 percent from last
year. Yield is forecast at 1.74 tons per
hectare, which is below the 5-year
average of 1.95 tons per hectare.
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| Jul 11 2013 | Australia Wheat: June Rainfall Revitalizes Critical Sowing Operations |
Australia wheat production for 2013/14 is forecast at 25.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4
percent from last month, and up 3.4 million or 15 percent from last year. The area forecast is
13.7 million hectares, up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last month and up 0.5 million or 3 percent
from last year.
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| Dec 10 2013 | Australia Barley: Production Revised Higher |
Australia barley production for 2013/14 is forecast at 8.6 million tons, up 1.2 million or 16
percent from last month and up 1.1 million or 15 percent from last year. The area forecast is 3.8
million hectares, up 50,000 hectares or 1.3 percent from last month and up 0.2 million or 4.9
percent from last year. Prospects for Australian barley production have improved. Early harvest
results indicate better than previously anticipated yields. Harvest is nearly complete in New
South Wales and well underway in the remaining states. More than half of the crop has been
harvested. The remaining harvest will occur in areas that experienced positive growing
conditions. Mixed conditions earlier in the season were significantly improved with abundant
timely rain in the two largest barley producing states of Western Australia and South Australia.
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| Dec 10 2013 | Australia Wheat: Production Revised Higher |
Australia wheat production for 2013/14 is forecast at 26.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3.9
percent from last month and up 4.0 million or 18 percent from last year. The area forecast is
13.5 million hectares, down 0.2 million hectares or 1.5 percent from last month but up 0.7
million or 5.7 percent from last year. Prospects for Australian wheat production have improved.
Early harvest results indicate better than previously anticipated yields. Harvest is complete in
Queensland, northern New South Wales and well underway in the remaining states.
Approximately half of the crop has been harvested. The remaining harvest will occur in areas
that experienced mostly positive growing conditions. The variable seasonal conditions during
winter and spring mean regional outcomes are expected to vary considerably. Conditions were
mixed earlier in the season but have significantly improved with abundant timely rain in the
south and west. Extended periods of dryness have reduced crop prospects in the east.
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| Feb 10 2014 | Australia Cotton: Estimated Production Reduced Due to Dryness |
The Australia 2013/14 cotton crop is forecast at 4.1 million bales, down 0.4 million from last month and down 0.5 million or 11 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.415 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.011 million hectares or 2.6 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2151 kilograms per hectare, 8.1 percent below the 5-year average. The decrease in estimated production is attributed to persistently hot and dry conditions across the main cotton producing regions. Temperatures have been well above average with several areas experiencing record heat. The recent spell of exceptionally hot, dry weather has taken a toll on water reserves. Irrigated crops with full water allocations have been developing well and some of the bigger farms have reported excellent plant growth. For those irrigated
crops receiving only partial water allocations this season, will likely result in lower yields. Overall output from dryland areas will account for a negligible proportion of the 2013/14 crop.
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| Feb 10 2014 | Australia Cotton: Estimated Production Reduced Due to Dryness |
The Australia 2013/14 cotton crop is forecast at 4.1 million bales, down 0.4 million from last month and down 0.5 million or 11 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.415 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.011 million hectares or 2.6 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2151 kilograms per hectare, 8.1 percent below the 5-year average. The decrease in estimated production is attributed to persistently hot and dry conditions across the main cotton producing regions. Temperatures have been well above average with several areas experiencing record heat. The recent spell of exceptionally hot, dry weather has taken a toll on water reserves. Irrigated crops with full water allocations have been developing well and some of the bigger farms have reported excellent plant growth. For those irrigated crops receiving only partial water allocations this season, will likely result in lower yields. Overall output from dryland areas will account for a negligible proportion of the 2013/14 crop.
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| Mar 10 2014 | Australia Barley: Production Revised Higher |
Australia barley production for 2013/14 is forecast at 9.6 million tons, up 1.0 million or 12 percent from last month and up 2.1 million or 29 percent from last year. The area forecast is 4.0 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 5.3 percent from last month and up 0.4 million or 10 percent from last year. Harvest results indicate better than previously anticipated yields. Crop conditions earlier in the season were significantly improved with timely rain in the two largest barley producing states of Western Australia and South Australia. Southern New South Wales and Victoria also experienced generally favorable growing conditions.
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| Mar 10 2014 | Australia Sorghum: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Prospects |
Australia sorghum production for 2013/14 is forecast at 1.2 million tons, down 0.7 million or 37 percent from last month, and down 0.8 million or 40 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 0.5 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month, and down 0.095 million or 16 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.4 tons per hectare, down 24 percent from last month and 29 percent below last year. Sorghum area had been expected to increase significantly this year as prices favored sorghum relative to other summer crops. However, many sorghum producers did not fully realize their planting intentions because of unfavorable seasonal conditions during much of the planting window. A severe lack of summer rainfall delayed planting in many growing areas and reduced potential yield. In addition, record high temperatures further stressed the crop already struggling with a lack of soil moisture. Sorghum production is concentrated in two eastern states. Queensland produces the
bulk of Australia’s sorghum, 66 percent (five-year average), with New South Wales accounting for the remaining 34 percent.
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| Jul 11 2014 | Australia Cotton: Low Reservoir Levels Likely to Reduce Irrigated Area |
USDA forecasts the 2014/15 Australia cotton crop at 2.7 million bales, down 0.4 million or 13 percent from last month. Harvested area is forecast at 0.30 million hectares, down 0.02 million or 6.3 percent from last month. Yield is forecast at 1,960 kilograms per hectare, marginally below the 5-year average of 1,990 kilograms.
Lower planted area is anticipated as a result of reduced irrigation availability at sowing, which will commence in September. Irrigated cotton area accounts for about 90 percent of Australia’s total cotton output. Dryland cotton planting tends to be more opportunistic and depends on the seasonal weather forecast, and conditions and prices at sowing. Irrigated cotton yields are substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference widens in low rainfall years. It is expected that reservoir levels will remain below 2013 levels thereby severely constraining the irrigated cotton area for the 2014 crop. Current reservoir levels are 40 to 70 percent below last year’s levels. Assuming normal rainfall and recharge from now until sowing, the available irrigation supply will be lower than in 2013.
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| Jul 11 2014 | Australia Wheat: Production Forecast Revised Up |
USDA forecasts the 2014/15 Australia wheat production at 26 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2.0
percent from last month, but down 1.0 million or 3.8 percent from last year. The area forecast is
13.8 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 1.5 percent from last month and up 0.3 million or 2.1
percent from last year. A favorable start to the season in most areas allowed sowing operations to
be completed by June. The planted area increase is largely due to expectations of better gross
margins as compared to other winter crops. Growing conditions for Australia’s 2014/15 wheat
crop are favorable across most regions of the cropping zone. Continued normal rainfall during
the growing season will be critical to achieving the forecast yield potential, particularly in those
areas where soil moisture levels are presently low such as in Queensland.
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| May 9 2014 | Australia Cotton: Low Reservoir Levels Likely To Reduce Irrigated Area |
The 2014/15 Australia cotton crop is forecast at 3.1 million bales, down 1.0 million or 24 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.320 million hectares, down 0.125 million or 28 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2,109 kilograms per hectare, 9.9 percent above the 5-year average. Lower planted area is anticipated as a result of reduced irrigation availability at sowing, which will commence in September. Irrigated cotton area accounts for about 90 percent of Australia’s total cotton output. Dryland cotton planting depends on the seasonal weather forecast, and conditions and prices at sowing. Irrigated cotton yields are substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference widens in low rainfall years. It is expected that reservoir levels will remain below 2013 levels, severely constraining the irrigated cotton area for the 2014 crop. Water levels in the cotton growing region are substantially down from last year. Current reservoir levels are 40 to 70 percent below last year’s levels. Assuming normal rainfall and recharge from now until sowing, the available irrigation supply would be lower than in 2013.
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| Mar 8 2013 | Australia Sorghum: Heat and Dryness Reduce Production Prospects |
Australia sorghum production for 2012/13 is forecast at 1.7 million tons, down 0.5 million or 23 percent from last month, and down 0.52 million or 24 percent from last year. The area forecast is 0.6 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month, and down 0.057 million or 9 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.83 tons per hectare, down 10 percent from last month and 18 percent below the 5-year average.
Sorghum production had been expected to increase significantly this year as prices favored sorghum relative to cotton. However, many sorghum producers did not fully realize their planting intentions because of unfavorable seasonal conditions during much of the planting window. Despite rainfall in lateJanuary many growers opted to plant sunflowers and mungbeans instead of sorghum. A severe lack of summer rainfall delayed planting in many growing areas and reduced yield potential. In addition, record high temperatures further stressed the crop already struggling with a lack of soil moisture. Sorghum production is concentrated in two eastern states. Queensland produces the bulk of Australia’s sorghum, 66 percent (five-year average), with New South Wales accounting for the remaining 34 percent. (For more information, please contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Dec 11 2012 | Australia Cotton: Lower Area Reduces Estimated Output |
The 2012/13 cotton crop is forecast at 4.0 million bales, down 0.25 million or 6 percent from last month and down 1.5 million or 27 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.415 million hectares, down 13 percent from last month and down 28 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2,099 kilograms per hectare, up 151 kilograms from last month, and up 34 kilograms from last year. An increase this year in the share of higher-yielding irrigated cotton is expected to increase overall yield. Planting of the 2012/13 Australian cotton crop is nearly complete. Estimated area is lower than last year, with dryland cotton area expected to drop by 85 per cent and irrigated cotton area expected to drop by 22 percent. Several factors have contributed to the year-to-year decrease in area, including dry planting conditions and low world cotton prices. Relatively high prices have made sorghum an attractive alternative crop for Australian farmers. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Dec 11 2012 | Australia Wheat: Subsoil Moisture Sustains Wheat Prospects |
Australia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month, and down 7.9 million or 26 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 13.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 5 percent from last year. Periods of dryness have beleaguered the Australian wheat producing states since major sowing operations commenced in May, but sufficient subsoil moisture has sustained yield potential in some areas. Crops have held up better than expected in many winter-crop regions, given the dry conditions experienced in the past few months. Queensland and northern New South Wales received marginal rainfall but subsoil reserves in many areas allowed crops to continue developing throughout the spring. In Western Australia, rainfall was below average during the growing season but timely September rainfall benefited yields. Harvest is mostly complete in Queensland and northern New South Wales and is underway in Western Australia, South Australia, southern New South Wales, and parts of Victoria. In southern most growing areas of Victoria, large scale harvesting is yet to begin. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Nov 9 2012 | Australia Wheat: Continued Dry Growing Conditions Lower Production |
Australia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 21.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 9 percent from last month, and down 8.5 million or 29 percent from last year. The area forecast is 13.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 0.8 million or 5 percent from last year. Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the Australian wheat producing states at varying times. Yield is forecast below the 5-year average. Nationwide, the wheat crop faces mixed prospects heading into spring, reflecting below-average September through October winter rainfall and soil moisture conditions. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Oct 11 2012 | Australia Wheat: Variable Growing Conditions Lower Production |
Australia wheat production for 2012/13 is forecast at 23.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 12 percent from last month, and down 6.5 million or 22 percent from last year. The area forecast is 13.3 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 1 percent from last month and down 0.8 million or 5 percent from last year. The yield forecast is 1.73 tons per hectare, down 0.2 tons or 10 percent from last month and down 0.4 tons or 18 percent from last year.
Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the Australia wheat producing states at varying times. Yield is marginally forecast above the 5-year average. Nationwide, the wheat crop faces mixed prospects heading into spring, reflecting below-average September winter rainfall and soil moisture conditions. Overall, seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia; and wheat production is forecast to be lower than the record harvest of last season, reflecting dry conditions in Western Australia and parts of south-eastern Australia. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0139.)
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| Oct 11 2012 | Australia Barley: Variable Growing Conditions Lower Production |
Australia barley production for 2012/13 is forecast at 7.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 13 percent from last month, and down 1.6 million or 18 percent from last year. The area forecast is 3.88 million hectares, up 75 thousand or 2 percent from last month and down 163 thousand or 4 percent from last year. The yield forecast is 1.81 tons per hectare, down 14 percent from last month, down 15 percent from last year and slightly above the 5-year average.
Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the Australia barley producing states at various times. Nationwide, the barley crop faces mixed prospects heading into spring, reflecting below-average September winter rainfall and soil moisture conditions. Overall, seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia; and barley production is forecast to decline, reflecting the dry conditions in the 2 major producing states of Western Australia and South Australia. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0139.)
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| Mar 15 2012 | Australia: Record Cotton Production Still in the Forecast |
The USDA forecasts Australia's 2011/12 cotton production at a record 4.8 million bales (480-pound bales), down 0.2 million or 4 percent from last month. Area harvested is forecast at 580,000 hectares, down 3 percent from last month and 1.7 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1802 kg/ha, down 0.7 percent from last month but up 16 percent from last year.The 2011/12 cotton planting operations started in October and proceeded through November with favorable soil moisture conditions and full capacity irrigation reservoirs. The optimal conditions, combined with rising cotton prices, led to increased plantings of both irrigated and dryland cotton. The crop is at advanced flowering to boll formation stages in southern New South Wales, and at advanced boll maturity to boll opening in northern New South Wales and in Queensland.The revised crop outlook is primarily based on USDA crop analysts' field observations that revealed (a) a significant decrease in area harvested due to mid-season (January - February) wetter-than-normal conditions that have resulted in crop inundation and flooding especially in St.George (Queensland) and west Gwydir (New South Wales), and (b) lower yields than previously projected due to persistent cloudiness, cooler temperatures, and heavy rainfall. These elements have caused significant boll and flower shedding, resulting in an overall poor boll count. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 2027207339.)
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| Mar 15 2012 | Australia: Higher Prospects for Wheat Crop Production |
A significant increase in area planted and higher prospects of average-to-above-average yields have significantly improved Australia’s wheat crop expectations. The USDA forecasts Australia’s 2011/12 wheat production at 29.5 million tons, up 1.2 million or 4 percent from last month. The crop is projected to be a record. Last year’s crop rebounded from poor crops the previous three years.Area is forecast at 14.1 million hectares, up 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.09 tons/ha, up slightly from last year. Cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales received average-to-above average rainfall in July-August. On the other hand, cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, most of Victoria, and Queensland received average rainfall in winter (June-Aug). In late winter (August) and early spring (September-October) rainfall was vital for the reproductive stages and helped to consolidate yield expectations. The favorable conditions and higher yield prospects in Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria are projected to offset low production in New South Wales and Queensland. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202 720 7339.)
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| Oct 12 2011 | Australia Wheat: Improved Prospects for 2011/12 Production |
A significant increase in planted area and prospects of average to above average yields have significantly improved Australia’s wheat crop expectations. The USDA forecasts Australia’s 2011/12 wheat production at 26 million tons, up 1 million or 4 percent from last month. The crop is projected to be similar to last year’s crop, which was the biggest in four years. Area is forecast at 14 million hectares, up approximately 5 percent from last year, and yield is forecast at 1.86 tons per hectare, roughly 5 percent less than last year.The main crop regions in Australia received average to above-average rainfall from July through August. Cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, most of Victoria, and Queensland benefited especially from rainfall from August through early October, which was vital for cotton in the reproductive stages. The favorable conditions and higher yield prospects in Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria will most likely offset low production in New South Wales and parts of Queensland. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202 720 7339, dath.mita@fas.usda.gov)
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| Oct 12 2011 | Australia Cotton: Record Output Forecast for 2011/12 |
The USDA forecasts Australia's 2011/12 cotton production at 5.0 million 480-pound bales, up 0.5 million or 11 percent from last month. Area harvested is forecast at 0.6 million hectares, up 9 percent from last month, and up 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1814 kilograms per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and 17 percent from last year.The 2011/12 cotton planting operations in Australia began in earnest in October and will continue through November. The current cotton outlook is based primarily on prospects of higher planted area and higher than previously forecasted yields due to excellent favorable sowing conditions. While most cotton growing regions in Queensland and New South Wales received average-to-below average winter (June-August) rainfall, the situation improved in early spring (September-October) rainfall. More importantly, irrigation water reservoirs remain at over 90 percent capacity, raising prospects of high farm-gate water allocations and increased irrigation of cotton.The favorable planting conditions, relatively strong cotton prices, and increased demand for high-quality cotton have significantly improved the crop expectations in Queensland and New South Wales. If achieved, the 2011/12 production forecast will be a record cotton crop after several devastating years of severe droughts. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339, dath.mita@fas.usda.gov)
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| Jul 12 2011 | Australia's 2010/11 Cotton Production Estimate Reduced |
The 2010/11 cotton harvest is almost complete. The USDA estimates Australia's 2010/11 cotton production at 4.2 million 480-pound bales, down 0.2 million or 5 percent from last month. Area harvested is forecast at 590 thousand hectares, down 2 percent from last month, but up 390 thousand hectares from the previous season. The yield is estimated at 1550 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down 20 percent from the previous year. Monitoring of harvest returns indicates variable yields across the country. Overall lower-thanexpected dryland cotton yields but high irrigated cotton yields have been reported. Harvested area has declined compared to earlier projections.The 2010 growing season was generally characterized by favorable planting conditions and rising cotton prices. The favorable conditions led to increased plantings of both irrigated and dryland cotton. Most cotton growing regions in New South Wales and Queensland experienced above-normal winter and spring rainfall resulting in excellent planting conditions in October and November. Irrigation water was a non-issue with full irrigation dams, improved on-farm reservoirs, and water allocations up 100 percent.The 2010/11 area and production estimates are 10-year records and represent a significant recovery from seasons of severe droughts experienced during the last several years.The 2011/12 cotton planting operations will commence in October. The USDA forecasts production at 4.5 million 480-pound bales, up 0.25 million or 6 percent from last month. Area harvested is forecast at 550 thousand hectares, up 5 percent from last month, but down 7 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1781 kilograms per hectare, up 1 percent from last month and up 15 percent from last year.The seasonal outlook is based on expectations of normal winter and spring rainfall coupled with substantial carry-over irrigation water and record-high water allocations in Queensland and New South Wales. If achieved, the 2011/12 production forecast will be a record crop showing strong growth and development of the Australian cotton industry after several devastating years of severe droughts. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339, dath.mita@fas.usda.gov.)
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| May 11 2011 | Strong Prices Lead to Rise in Total Foreign Corn Prospects |
Total foreign corn production for the 2011/12 marketing year is forecast at a record 525 million tons, up 5 percent from 2010/11. Area is also forecast at a record 131.7 million hectares, up 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a near-trend 3.98 tons per hectare at the beginning of the season in the Northern Hemisphere.Strong world prices have encouraged planting in many countries. US#3 corn FOB Gulf averaged US$255 per ton from November-to-January when many farmers were making their planting decisions. November-to-January prices are up from US$180 last year and US$137 for the 9-year average. A drop in total coarse grain and wheat production in 2010/11 caused by weather problems which led to lower-than-trend yields has resulted in a tightness in stock levels contributing to the high prices. The price rise is partly attributed to strong demand in Asia for corn to feed livestock, but also strong demand in the United States as a feed stock for producing ethanol to blend with gasoline. (For additional information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)
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| Mar 10 2011 | Australia: Wheat Prospects Stable Despite Poor Crop Conditions in the West and Delayed Harvest in the East |
Australia's 2010/11 wheat harvest is complete, with the majority of the crop already delivered to bulk handlers. The USDA estimates production at 26.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 4.0 million or 19 percent from last year. Estimated output is the highest in 7 years. The area is estimated at 13.4 million hectares, down 5 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.95 tons per hectare, 25 percent higher than last year. The major wheat cropping areas in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and South Australia experienced overall excellent water availability and favorably cool weather throughout the growing season. Although excessive rainfall in eastern Australia from late November through early January resulted in harvest delays and a likely reduction in grain quality, the wheat crop along the east coast is reported to be the highest in many years. Western Australia experienced one of the worst seasons for wheat and other winter crops in over 40 years, with low soil moisture and above-average temperatures throughout the season for much of the west coast. Wheat output in Western Australia turned out to be better than previously projected. The yield gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and South Australia offset the year-to-year decline in Western Australia. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339)
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| Mar 10 2011 | Australia: Record Cotton Crop Forecast |
The USDA forecasts Australia's 2010/11 cotton production at 4.5 million 480-pound bales, up 0.5 million or 13 percent from last month and 154 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.6 million hectares, up 7 percent from last month, and up 0.4 million or 200 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1633 kg/ha, up 5 percent from last month but down 15 percent from last year.Australia cotton is at advanced flowering to boll formation stages. The favorable planting conditions, combined with rising cotton prices, led to increased plantings of both irrigated and dryland cotton. Most cotton growing regions in New South Wales and Queensland experienced above-normal winter and spring rainfall resulting in excellent planting conditions in October and November. Irrigation water is plentiful, with improved on-farm reservoirs and water allocations up 100 percent.From late November to early January, rainfall was excessive in some major cotton growing areas of central-south Queensland and northern New South Wales. This caused moderate to excessive flooding in some areas. Although the floods had devastating impact in certain areas, field observations made by crop-assessment specialists from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service indicate that most cotton growing areas actually experienced limited flood damage and the majority of cropping areas are now benefiting from the improved soil moisture profiles and the abundant irrigation reserves. Prospects are high for both yields and total harvested areas and by all estimates the Australian cotton industry is on track for a record cotton harvest. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339)
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| Jan 12 2011 | Australia Wheat: Dryness in Western Production Regions, and Excessive Wetness in the East |
The USDA estimates Australia wheat production for 2010/11 at 25.0 million tons, the highest harvest in five years. Estimated output is down 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month, but up 3.1 million or 14 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 13.35 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down approximately 5 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.87 tons per hectare, up 20 percent from last year. The harvest as of early January was about 75 percent complete.Western Australia had one of the worst seasons for winter crops in over 40 years, with dry conditions and above-average temperatures. The dryness significantly cut wheat output for much of the west coast. The major wheat cropping areas on the east coast (including New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and South Australia), experienced excellent weather conditions throughout most of the growing season. Above-average rainfall and overall healthy crop conditions in the eastern states boosted potential yields. In late November through December, however, excessively wet conditions across eastern Australia, especially in central-south Queensland and northern New South Wales, caused moderate to excessive flooding. The continued wet weather in these regions resulted in slower crop maturity and hampered harvesting. Crop losses from flooding, physical damage from storms, and likely harvest delays are projected to cause significant downgrade in quality, but minimal loss in overall volume. On the other hand, recent weather conditions have been favorable for harvest in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
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| Jan 12 2011 | Australia: Cotton Planted Area Up From Last Year, but Wetness Could Affect Output |
Australia's cotton production for 2010/11 is forecast at 4.0 million 480-pound bales, the same as last month, and up 2.23 million or 125 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 560 thousand hectares, up 360 thousand or 180 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1555 kilograms per hectare, down about 20 percent from last year.Cotton planting is complete. Most cotton growing regions in New South Wales and Queensland experienced above-normal winter and spring rainfall resulting in excellent planting conditions in October and November. The favorable planting conditions, combined with rising cotton prices, led to increased plantings of both irrigated and dryland cotton. Irrigation water is a non-issue since the main dams remain full and farm-gate water allocations went to 100 percent.In late November through December, excessive wet conditions across eastern Australia, especially in central-south Queensland and northern New South Wales, caused moderate to excessive flooding of some major cotton growing areas. Some flood damage has occurred in low-lying areas but it is too early to assess the full extent. Cool temperatures associated with reduced sunshine have slowed crop establishment and development. A dry warm period is needed for cotton and other summer crops to take advantage of the good rainfall conditions. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
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| Dec 10 2010 | Australia: Excellent Rainfall Raises Prospects of a Record Cotton Crop |
Australia's 2010/11 cotton production is forecast at 4.0 million 480-pound bales, up 14 percent from last month, and up 2.25 million or 125 percent from last year. Area harvested is forecast at 560 thousand hectares, up 360 thousand hectares or 180 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1555 kg/ha, down 20 percent from last year. Australia is on track for a record cotton crop. Cotton planting is in progress and almost complete in some areas. Most cotton growing regions in New South Wales and Queensland have experienced above-normal winter and spring rainfall resulting in excellent planting conditions, adequate irrigation-water storage and improved farm-gate water allocations. The majority of irrigation reservoirs are at full or over the designed capacity. Recent flooding events in south-central New South Wales are likely to delay plantings. Prospects are high for increased plantings of both irrigated and dryland cotton due to improved water availability and rising cotton prices offered to farmers. Farmers' planting intentions indicate irrigated and dryland cropping areas approaching 350,000 and 200,000 thousand hectares, respectively. The overall yields are projected to decline because a majority of dryland plantings are expanding into areas that have moderate to high variability in rainfall. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)
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| Nov 10 2010 | Australia's 2010/11 Wheat Crop Prospects Holds Despite Poor Conditions |
Australia's 2010/11 wheat crop is maturing, with the majority of the crop close to harvest. Overall the USDA forecasts production at 24 million tons, up 1 million or 4.3 percent from last month, and up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last year. The crop is projected to be the biggest in four years. The area is forecast at 13.4 million hectares, up 0.8 percent from last month, but down 3 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.8 tons per hectare, 10 percent higher than last year. The major wheat cropping areas in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and South Australia experienced excellent water availability throughout the season, combined with cooler weather. The wheat crop in eastern growing areas is reported to be the best in many years. In contrast, Western Australia reports that this could be one of the worst seasons for wheat and other winter crops in over 40 years, with dry conditions and above-average temperatures throughout the season. The season's low soil moisture conditions have significantly cut wheat output for much of the west, while above-average rainfall and overall healthy crop conditions in the eastern states have boosted yield potential. The yield gains in New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, and South Australia will more than likely offset the poor outcome in Western Australia. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)
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| Oct 8 2010 | Australia on Track for the Largest Cotton Crop in Recent Years |
Australia's 2010/11 cotton production is forecast at 3.30 million 480-pound bales, up 10 percent from last month, and up 1.5 million or 86 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 425,000 hectares, up 225,000 hectares or 113 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1,691 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down 3 percent from last year.Australia is on track for one of the largest cotton crops in the past decade. Planting is in progress, with sufficient soil moisture in most regions. The majority of irrigation-water reservoirs are at approximately full capacity. Most cotton growing regions in New South Wales and Queensland have experienced above-normal winter rainfall resulting in adequate irrigation-water availability and improved farm-gate water allocations.Prospects are high for increased plantings of both irrigated and dryland cotton due to improved water availability and rising cotton prices offered to farmers. Farmers' planting intentions indicate irrigated and dryland cropping areas approaching 300,000 and 100,000 hectares, respectively. The overall yield is projected to decline because dryland plantings are expanding into areas that have moderate to high variability in rainfall from January to March, which are the most important months in determining both yield and fiber quality of dryland cotton. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)
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| Apr 13 2010 | Prospects for Australia's 2009/10 Cotton Declining |
Australia's 2009/10 cotton production is forecast at 1.60 million 480-pound bales, down 0.15 million 9 percent from last month, but up 0.10 million or 7 percent from last year. Area harvested is forecast at 200,000 hectares, up 36,000 hectares from last year. The yield is forecast at 1742 kilograms per hectare, down 13 percent from last year.At the beginning of the cropping season, in November and early December, the majority of the cotton growing regions experienced drier-than-normal conditions, above average temperatures, high evaporation, and relatively high crop-water use. This resulted in area planted being below earlier predictions and below most farmer's planting intentions. In addition, the below-average soil moisture conditions resulted in poor establishment of dryland cotton.In January and February, most cropping regions experienced favorable weather conditions during advanced flowering and boll-formation stages. Although the rainfall came too late to increase cotton plantings, it was beneficial to dryland cotton yields and ensured adequate irrigation water to finish the irrigated crop. However, excessive rains in late February and March are raising concerns for damage to quality and yield, and disruption to early harvest. Potential damage is feared mostly in Queensland regions of St George, Dirranbandi, Emerald, and Thoedore. The majority of the crop is approaching advanced boll formation and maturity, and in some regions picking operations are about to commence. (For more information, contact Dr. Dath Mita at 202-720-7339).
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| Jan 12 2010 | Australia Cotton Forecast Slightly Decreased |
Australia's 2009/10 cotton production is forecast at 1.75 million 480-pound bales, down 3 percent from last month, but up 0.25 million or 17 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 195,000 hectares, up 31,000 hectares or 19 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1954 kg/ha, down 2 percent from last year. Early-season rains and increased water availability in the Murray River and Snowy System diversions resulted in improved water entitlement allocations. Cotton sowing operations in October saw favorable end-of-spring soil moisture conditions. In November and early December, however, the majority of the cottongrowing regions experienced drier-than-normal conditions coupled with above average temperatures, high evaporation, and high crop water use. Producers in New South Wales and Queensland were desperate for rainfall in order to limit early irrigation and ease pressure on already-stretched irrigation supplies. Some farmers started reassessing their irrigation budgets and dryland crop management. The crop is approaching the flowering stage, critical for yield development. The current planted-area and production forecasts represent a significant recovery from record-low levels experienced in the 2007/08 season. The current forecasts, however, are still low in historical terms because water availability remains a critical problem along with limited irrigation capacity. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339, mita.dath@fas.usda.gov).
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| Oct 13 2009 | Australia: Largest Wheat Forecast in Four Years |
The USDA's forecast for 2009/10 Australia wheat production is 23.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month, and up 2.0 million or 9 percent from last year. The current crop outlook, if realized, will be the largest crop in four years. Area is forecast at 13.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and the same as last year.In Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia, the key features shaping the wheat crop outlook are the current crop conditions and a likely favorable finish to the season. Overall, crop areas in these states experienced good weather throughout the season. Crop development in Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia ranges from grain-filling to maturity; so in some areas within these states, weather conditions remain important in determining the final crop outcome.In contrast, Queensland and southern New South Wales had below average winter rainfall and warmer than normal conditions during August and September. As a result, yield expectations in these regions are projected close to or slightly below the long-term average. However, yield gains in the rest of the country's wheat belt will likely offset the poor outcome in Queensland and southern New South Wales. Most crops in Queensland and New South Wales have already reached maturity and harvesting has commenced in some areas. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339)
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| May 19 2009 | World 2009/10 Crop Area and Production Forecasts |
The initial USDA country-level area and production estimates for 2009/10 grains, oilseeds, andcotton are provided this month. In previous years, only the initial grain estimates were releasedin May, but this year estimates for oilseeds and cotton are provided as well.World wheat area for 2009/10 is estimated at 224 million hectares, down less than 1 percentfrom last year. International prices in September 2008, when many Northern Hemisphere wheatproducers were deciding if they would plant, had declined from a year earlier while prices forcorn and soybeans were stronger. Wheat production is forecast at 658 million metric tons, down25 million tons from 2008/09, when excellent growing conditions occurred in many of the majorproducers.World corn area is forecast at 156 million hectares for 2009/10, unchanged from the previousyear. Reports of farmers foregoing corn planting because of high input costs have been receivedfrom many countries. Corn area is not increasing even though corn prices were high relative towheat, and to a lesser extent soybean, during December to February when many farmers weremaking their corn planting decisions. Corn production is forecast virtually unchanged at 788million tons as corn planting in the Northern Hemisphere is underway.World soybean area is forecast at 99 million hectares up 2 million. Production is forecast at 242million tons, up 29 million from 2008/09. Much of the increase results from an expectation ofrecovery in Argentina and Brazil which suffered from extreme drought in major producing areas.World international soybean/corn price ratios from October through December favored corn, buthigher production costs have favored soybeans, which require fewer inputs. (For moreinformation, contact Paul Provance 202-720-0873.)
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| Mar 11 2009 | Australia: Improved Water Availability Boosts Potential Cotton Production |
Australia's 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at 1.4 million bales, up 4 percent from last month, and up 0.78 million or 126 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 164,000 hectares, up 99,000 hectares or 152 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1859 kilograms per hectare, down 10 percent from last year. The major cotton growing regions in New South Wales and Queensland received favorable rainfall from November 2008 through early January 2009. The improvement in soil moisture conditions benefitted cotton and other summer crops in the regions. Increased water storage levels and water allocations have resulted in significant increase in the area planted. Beneficially hot weather has increased yield potential of irrigated cotton. The 2008/09 estimate of planted area and production represents a significant rebound from record-low levels experienced in the 2007/08 season. Despite the increase, sown area and production are low in historical terms as the availability of irrigation water remains a critical issue. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)
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| Nov 10 2008 | Australia Wheat: Production Forecast for 2008/09 Declines |
Australia's wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 20.0 million tons, down 1.5 million or 7percent from last month, but up 7.0 million or 54 percent from last year. Area is estimated at13.0 million hectares, down 0.5 million from last month, but up 0.7 million or 6 percent from lastyear. The continued lack of spring rainfall in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australiahas resulted in significant abandonment, haying, and declining yields. The majority of the wheatgrowingregions in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia experienced well belowaverage rainfall in September and October. Rainfall in September and October is critical towheat production in these regions. In general, wheat prospects have significantly deteriorated inVictoria and South Australia. The condition of wheat in New South Wales is mixed. Northernand central New South Wales are likely to experience average to above-average yields, whereasthe crop in the west and south is in poor condition. In addition, while there may be some croplosses in Western Australia due to late frost, the overall crop prospects are above average.Queensland is also expected to have higher yields and production compared to last year. (Formore information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
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| Oct 10 2008 | Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Reduced |
Australia wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 21.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 2percent from last month, but up 8.5 million or 65 percent from last year. The area is forecast at13.5 million hectares, down 0.5 from last month, but up 1.2 million or 10 percent from last year.The majority of Australia's wheat growing region experienced average to below average Augustrainfall. September rainfall in Western Australia, northern New South Wales, and Queenslandwas above normal, while the remainder of the growing area was below average. In certain areas,particularly southern New South Wales and northern Victoria, the dry conditions resulted in croplosses due to moisture stress and the crop being cut for hay. (For more information, contactDath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
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| Sep 12 2008 | Australia: Estimated Wheat Production Decreased |
Australia wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 22.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 12percent from last month, but up 9.0 million or 69 percent from last year. Area is estimated at14.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.7 million or 13 percent from last year.Seasonal weather conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia.Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have affected significantareas of the Australia wheat producing states at varying times. In the two largest wheatproducing states of New South Wales (30%) and Western Australia (37%), an unusually dryAugust reduced potential yield. In the southern producing states of Victoria (12%) and SouthAustralia (17%) conditions have been marginally better but more rains are needed to maintaincrop prospects. September precipitation is critical in determining Australia wheat yield. Themaximum value of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the entire seasonoccurs during September in most growing areas and corresponds to the wheat crop at theflowering and reproductive stage. An historical analysis of satellite-derived Septembervegetation indices and Australia wheat yield reveal strong correlations (r-square 0.80 to 0.82) forthe major wheat producing states of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and WestAustralia. Assuming normal crop development through September, the NDVI model indicatesyield at 1.57 tons per hectare. Australia's five year average wheat yield is about 1.5 tons perhectare. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071)
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| Aug 12 2008 | Australia: Cotton Area Forecast to Decline in 2008/09 |
Australia 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at 1.2 million bales, down 0.3 million from last month, but up 0.6 million or 111 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 0.15 million hectares, down 0.025 million or 14 percent from last month, but up 0.085 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,742 kilograms per hectare, down 124 kilograms from last month, and down 167 kilograms from last year. The cotton crop is produced under irrigation and is typically planted from late September to November. The forecast decline in cotton production is attributed mainly to the continued dryness that has caused slow recharge of irrigation reservoirs. In addition, planting intentions by cotton farmers will be negatively influenced by this season's higher grains prices. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)
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| Jul 11 2008 | Australia Wheat Production Rebounds |
Wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 25.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4 percent fromlast month, and up 12.0 million or 91 percent from last year. The large year-to-year rise inproduction is the result of forecast increases in both area and yield. Area is forecast at a record14.0 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month, and 1.66 million or 14 percentabove last year. Yield is forecast at 1.79 tons per hectare, 67 percent above last year and wellabove the five-year average yield of 1.53 tons per hectare. This season's area increase is aculmination of three factors: improved rainfall, strong economic incentive for growers to recouplosses incurred during the 2006 and 2007 droughts, and the conversion of last season's pastureinto field crops. Rainfall was sufficient for timely planting of this season's record area whichoccurred from April through July. The 2007 winter and summer drought severely impactedpasture growth which, combined with high feed grain prices throughout the country, led farmersto sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep. According to the Australia Bureau of Statistics,'sheep numbers are the lowest since 1925. Some of this unused pasture land will be converted towheat area. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| May 9 2008 | Australia Wheat Production Rebounds |
Wheat production for 2008/09 is forecast at 24.0 million tons, up 10.9 million or 83 percent from last year. The large year-to-year rise in production is the result of forecast increases in both area and yield. Area is forecast at 13.5 million hectares, 1.2 million above last year. Yield is forecast at 1.78 tons per hectare, 67 percent above last year and well above the five-year average yield of 1.53 tons per hectare. This season's area increase is a culmination of three factors: improved rainfall, strong economic incentive for growers to recoup losses incurred during the 2006 and 2007 droughts, and the conversion of last season's pasture into field crops. The 2007 winter and summer drought severely impacted pasture growth which combined with high feed grain prices throughout the country and led farmers to sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep. Sheep numbers are the lowest since 1925 according to the Australia Bureau of Statistics. Western Australia and South Australia have received abundant April rainfall in most growing areas, but major areas in New South Wales need rainfall. Sowing of the 2008/09 wheat crop occurs April through June. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| May 9 2008 | World Wheat Production Forecast Dramatically Higher |
Despite a drought which has devastated the Middle Eastern winter wheat crop, the USDA's initial estimate for world total wheat production for 2008/09 is dramatically higher than the estimate for last year. It is forecast at 656 million tons, up 8 percent from 2007/08. Estimated area is up 3 percent at 225 million hectares and average yield is forecast up 5 percent at 2.92 tons per hectare. Large increases in production are forecast for the European Union, the United States, Ukraine, and Australia. (For more information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)
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| Apr 9 2008 | Australia Sorghum: Production Forecast to Double from Last Year |
Australia sorghum production for 2007/08 is forecast at 2.7 million tons, up 0.2 million or 8 percent from last month and up 1.3 million or 98 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 0.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.16 million or 26 percent from last year. The relatively high prices for sorghum, combined with favorable rainfall, have contributed to a near-record sown area. Australia sorghum production is concentrated in two eastern states: Queensland produces about 60 percent of the country's output and New South Wales accounts for the remaining 40 percent. Summer rainfall has been above average in the key production regions of northern New South Wales and southern and central Queensland. The rainfall was extremely beneficial for early-sown grain sorghum crops and extended the planting season for late sorghum crops. Abundant soil moisture this season will likely boost yields to near-record levels in both New South Wales and Queensland. Despite damaging floods in central Queensland's sorghum region, the increased yield potential in southern Queensland growing regions will more than offset these losses. (For additional information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Mar 11 2008 | Australia Sorghum Benefits from Abundant Rain |
The USDA forecasts Australia sorghum production for 2007/08 at a record 2.5 million tons, up 0.3 million or 14 percent from last month and up 1.1 million or 83 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 0.8 million hectares, one of the largest areas on record. In the main sorghum growing areas of northern New South Wales and southern-central Queensland, summer rainfall has been above average which, in conjunction with high grain prices, generate great enthusiasm for planting. The abundant rainfall has been extremely beneficial for early sown grain sorghum and allowed for some late grain sorghum to be sown. Sorghum production was decreased dramatically in the previous two seasons (2005/06 and 2006/07) because of drought. This season a La Nina weather pattern has brought above-normal rainfall to the eastern growing areas of Australia, largely benefiting rain-fed crops including sorghum. This season's forecast production of 2.5 million tons is based on higher area and yield. Average sorghum yield for the past five years is 2.45 tons per hectare compared to a forecast of 3.1 tons per hectare this season. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Nov 13 2007 | Australias Dry October Reduces Estimated Yield |
Australia wheat production for 2007/08 is forecast at 13.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 4percent from last month, but up 3.1 million or 31 percent from last year. The area forecast is12.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.0 million or 9 percent from last year.Seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia. Sincemajor sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the Australianwheat producing states. September precipitation is the most influential factor for determiningAustralia wheat yield and was far below average for all wheat areas with the exception ofWestern Australia.
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| Nov 13 2007 | Australia: Barley Production Lowered Following Persistent Dryness |
Australian barley production for 2007/08 is forecast at 5.5 million tons, down 0.7 million or 11percent from last month, but up 1.7 million from last year. The area forecast is 4.0 millionhectares, unchanged from last month, and unchanged from last year. Most winter barley areasrecorded below average rainfall during the Australian summer. Opportunities for sowing barleydiminished as the dryness persisted. The reduction in area resulting from dry planting conditionsfor barley was partially offset by the decision of some farmers to shift from wheat to barley.
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| Oct 12 2007 | Australia Barley: Dry September Reduces Production Prospects |
Seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia.September precipitation is the most influential factor for determining Australia barley yield andwas far below average for all barley areas with the exception of Western Australia. Australiabarley production for 2007/08 is forecast at 6.2 million tons, down 1.8 million or 23 percent fromlast month, but up 2.4 million from last year. The area forecast is 4.0 million hectares, down 0.5million from last month, but unchanged from last year.In the largest producing state of South Australia, which accounts for 30 percent of the total crop,dry conditions in August and September have substantially reduced production potential. Sincemajor sowing operations commenced in May with abundant soil moisture, periods of drynesshave plagued this key Australia barley state. Western Australia is the second largest barleyproducing state in Australia with 28 percent of the national crop. This season began unusuallydry which delayed sowing operations until the more substantial rainfall occurred during July.Substantial September rainfall significantly benefited Western Australias barley crop. NewSouth Wales, the third most important barley state, experienced a severely dry Septemberthroughout the winter grain belt which further reduced yield potential. Currently, additionalrainfall is needed in all growing states to sustain the current production potential. (For moreinformation, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Sep 13 2007 | Australia Wheat Production Trimmed Down |
Australia wheat production for 2007/08 is forecast at 21.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 9percent from last month, but up 11.1 million or 121 percent from last year, when productionplunged following one of the worst droughts in recent history. Area is estimated at 13.0 millionhectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.8 million or 16 percent from last year. Growingconditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of Australia this season.
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| Jul 12 2007 | Australia Wheat and Barley: Production Forecast to Rebound from Last Year |
Increases in both estimated area and yield should enable 2007/08 Australia wheat and barleyproduction to rebound from last years low level. Wheat production is forecast at 23.0 milliontons, up 0.9 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 13.1 million or 132% from last year.Area is forecast at 13.0 million hectares, or 1.7 million above last year, and yield at 1.77 tons perhectare double last years level. Barley production is forecast at 9.0 million tons, up 0.7 millionor 8 percent from last month, and up 5.2 million or 137% from last year. Area is forecast at 4.5million hectares, up 0.5 million or 13 percent above last year. Yield is forecast at 2.0 tons perhectare against 1.05 tons per hectare last year.
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| May 14 2007 | Australia: Wheat Production Rebounds |
Australian wheat production for 2007/08 is forecast at 22.1 million tons, up 11.6 million or 110percent from last year. The large year-to-year rise in production is the result of increases in botharea and yield. Area is forecast at 13.0 million hectares, 1.7 million above last year. This'seasons area increase is a culmination of three factors: improved rainfall, strong economicincentive for growers to recoup losses incurred during the 2006 drought, and the conversion oflast seasons pasture into field crops.
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| Mar 12 2007 | Australia Sorghum Production Slashed by Drought |
Australia sorghum production for 2006/07 is forecast at 1.5 million tons, down 0.4 million or 21percent from last month and down 0.52 million or 26 percent from last year. This is the smallestcrop since the El Niño-induced drought of 2002. The area forecast is 0.65 million hectares, down0.15 million or 19 percent from last month, and down 0.24 million or 27 percent from last year.The yield forecast is 2.31 tons per hectare. This is 5 percent above the severe drought of 2002.Sorghum is grown predominantly in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland.Summer rainfall has been well below average and irregular, which has resulted in many early'sown crops suffering from moisture stress. The exception has been in Central Queensland whereaverage to above average rainfall has boosted yield potential for early sown crops. In addition'sporadic but significant February rainfall is likely to have spurred additional planting as someareas can sow sorghum well into February. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at202-690-0135.)
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| Feb 26 2007 | Australia: Sorghum Production Lower on Dry Weather |
The USDA forecasts Australia sorghum production for 2006/07 at 1.9 million tons, down 0.2million or 10 percent from last month and down 0.1 million or 6 percent from last year. Area isestimated at 0.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 0.1 million or 10 percentfrom last year. Summer sorghum is Australias main summer grain crop. The lower productionforecast is based on a reduced yield outlook for the season due to continued dryness. (For moreinformation, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Nov 9 2006 | Australia Wheat Production Drops to 10.5 Million Tons |
Australia wheat production for 2006/07 is forecast at 10.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 5 percent from last month and down 14.0 million or 57 percent from last year. The area forecast is 11.3 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month and down 1.3 million or 10 percent from last year. Most winter wheat areas recorded below average rainfall during the Australian summer, greatly reducing yields. September precipitation is the most influential factor determining Australia's wheat yield, and rainfall during the month was insufficient. Crop conditions continued to deteriorate with persistent dryness through October. There is a strong correlation between the satellite-derived vegetation index (NDVI) and Australia's wheat yield. The low NDVI this season are indicative of a drastically lower crop with yields similar to the 2002/03 drought year. Wheat development is filling to maturing with harvest beginning in some growing areas. Harvesting will be advanced by 1 to 2 weeks because overall warm and dry conditions have accelerated grain ripening. In addition to the overall poor conditions, it is also likely that a "floor" exists, that could prevent grain production from dropping too low. The high grain prices are enticing producers to harvest fields with marginal production (fields that would normally be abandoned). Many farmers are now prepared and equipped to handle dry conditions by using technologies such as reduced tillage and direct drilling since their experience with the devastating 2002/03 drought. Also, some fields, which are traditionally planted with irrigated cotton and rice, were planted with irrigated wheat this year because of the low prices for cotton and the intensive water requirements demanded by both cotton and rice. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-60138.)
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| Oct 12 2006 | Australia Barley Production Lower |
Australian 2006/07 barley production is forecast at 4.5 million tons, down 3.0 million or 40 percent from last month, and down 5.4 million or 55 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 4.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.3 million or 6 percent from last year. The yield forecast is 1.02 tons per hectare, 2 percent above the severe drought of 2002. Most winter barley areas recorded below-average rainfall during the Australian summer, and opportunities for sowing barley diminished as the dry conditions persisted. Partially offsetting this factor is that area intended for wheat was shifted to barley in some regions. Barley can be sown later than wheat, and this is done in years where rains do not arrive in time for timely wheat sowing. Crops in most growing areas survived on marginal soil moisture conditions during the early season, and rainfall in the critical month of September was insufficient to improve the situation. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield, 202-690-0135.)
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| Oct 12 2006 | Australia Rapeseed Hurt by Poor Planting and Growing Conditions |
Australian 2006/07 rapeseed production is forecast at 0.80 million tons, down 0.45 million or 36 percent from last month, and down 0.64 million or 44 percent from last year. The area forecast is 0.95 million hectares, unchanged from last month, and similar to last season. Yield is forecast below the 5-year average at 0.84 tons per hectare.Unusual dryness in May and June resulted in a below average sown area. Dryness during the sowing window was similar to last year, and area is lower than it has been in 9 years. Early dryness was common through much of the country and reduced area is forecast in all producing states. Australia's main rapeseed-producing regions have received below-normal rainfall for the season, while September precipitation is especially critical for rapeseed yields. This season several growing areas suffered through the early season with low soil moisture, and rainfall in September was insufficient to improve conditions. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield, 202-690-0135.)
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| Oct 12 2006 | Australia Wheat Production Suffers a Dry September |
Australian wheat production for 2006/07 is forecast at 11.0 million tons, down 8.5 million or 44 percent from last month, and down 13.5 million or 55 percent from last year. The area forecast is 11.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 1.1 million or 9 percent from last year. The yield forecast is 0.96 tons per hectare. This is 4 percent above the severe drought of 2002. Most winter wheat areas recorded below average rainfall during the Australian summer. The opportunities for sowing wheat diminished as the dry conditions persisted through the normal sowing calendar, resulting in a below average area. September precipitation is the most influential factor for determining Australian wheat yield. Several growing areas went through the early growing season with dry conditions throughout the soil profile, and rainfall in September was insufficient to improve the situation. An analysis of vegetation-index-numbers from satellite data indicates very low plant density and very low yields. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield, 202-690-0135.)
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| Sep 12 2006 | Australia Winter Grain Production Revised Down |
The 2006/07 Australia wheat production is forecast at 19.5 million tons, down 2.0 million or 9 percent from last month and down 5.0 million tons or 20 percent from last year. The area forecast of 11.5 million hectares is unchanged from last month, but down 1.1 million or 9 percent from last year. The yield forecast is 1.70 tons per hectare. This yield is below the 5-year average, which includes the severe drought of 2002. Production forecasts for the two other major Australia winter grains also have been reduced. Barley and oats are now forecast at 7.5 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Most winter grain areas recorded below average rainfall during the Australian summer. The opportunities for sowing diminished as the dry conditions persisted through the normal sowing calendar, resulting in below average planted area for wheat and oats. South Australia, the major barley producer, experienced the most promising start of the season. Widespread May rainfall in Victoria allowed significant planting to occur on adequate soil moisture. Sowing was delayed in the wheat areas of New South Wales and southern Queensland until the second week of June, thereby allowing limited seeding operations to occur. Conditions across Western Australia's grain belt have been variable. September precipitation is critical for the Australian winter grains crop. This will be especially true this season, as most growing areas have marginal soil moisture available. This forecast assumes normal precipitation amounts for the month of September.(For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield, 202-690-0135.)
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| Jul 12 2006 | Lower Water Supplies Reduce Planting Intended for Australia Cotton |
The 2006/07 Australia cotton crop is forecast at 2.6 million bales, down 0.1 million from last month and down 0.2 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.3 million hectares, down 0.01 million from last month and down 0.04 million from last year. Sowing of the 2006/07 crop will commence in September 2006. The two main factors influencing Australian farmers cotton planting intentions are water supplies and expected prices. Persistent below-normal precipitation and low reservoir levels will constrain area unless rainfall amounts return to seasonal levels. The vast majority of Australias cotton crop is produced under irrigated conditions. The drought in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales began in late 2001 and precipitation has remained below average to present. Reservoir levels for cotton areas of Queensland and New South Wales are on average slightly below those of last year at this time. If the dry conditions continue and thereby further reduce irrigation allocations prior to sowing, area planted to cotton will likely be lower. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Jul 12 2006 | Australia Rapeseed Production Forecast Lower Due to Late Planting |
Australia's 2006/07 rapeseed production is forecast at 1.25 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month and down 0.19 million from last year. Area is forecast at 0.95 million hectares, down 0.35 million from last month and down 0.01 million from last year. The yield forecast of 1.32 tons per hectare is below last year and equivalent to the 5-year average excluding the severe drought of 2002. Australias main rapeseed-producing regions have received below-normal rainfall this season. In the largest producing state, New South Wales, canola plantings were adversely affected by the late start to the season in the southern and central areas of the state. The optimal planting occurs during the months of May and June. In Victoria, area planted to canola is forecast to increase slightly over last season, reflecting earlier timely rains that allowed an early start to planting. Crop reports indicate that the early-sown canola is in good condition, but late-planted canola needs additional rainfall in order to germinate. The area planted to canola in South Australia is expected to increase marginally over last season reflecting the early start of the season. Area is forecast to decrease in Western Australia. In 2005/06, Western Australia canola yields were some of the highest on record, averaging 1.43 tons per hectare. For 2006/07, yields are expected to return to their historical average if not slightly below due to the poor start of season. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Jul 12 2006 | Australia Wheat Crop Forecast Lower Due to Western Dryness |
Australia wheat production for 2006/07 is forecast at 21.5 million tons, down 2.5 million from last month and down 3.0 million from last year. Area is forecast at 11.5 million hectares, down 1.3 million from last month and down 1.1 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.87 tons per hectare. This yield is below the 5-year average, excluding the severe drought of 2002. Most winter grain areas recorded below-average rainfall during the Australia summer. The opportunities for an average wheat area have diminished as the dry conditions persisted into the normal sowing calendar. South Australia has experienced the most promising start of the current season. May and June rainfall was average to above-average in the majority of South Australias wheat regions. Widespread May rainfall in Victoria allowed significant planting to occur with adequate soil moisture. Followup rain is needed in both states. Sowing was delayed by dryness in the wheat areas of New South Wales and southern Queensland until the second week of June, when beneficial rainfall enabled limited seeding operations to resume. The current lack of subsoil moisture, particularly in southern and central New South Wales, makes these crops more vulnerable to dry seasonal conditions. Conditions across Western Australias wheat belt have been variable. The largest wheat-producing state, Western Australia, is experiencing one of the least favorable starts in many years. Most of the grain belt is in need of rainfall. Crops that were sown early are starting to suffer from moisture stress as well as from the effect of warmer than normal temperatures for this time of year. (For more information contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| May 12 2006 | Foreign Rice Output Expected To Rise For 2006/07 |
Foreign milled rice production for 2006/07 is estimated at 410.5 million tons, up 6.1 million or 1.5 percent from last year. The increase is due to a small rise in both estimated area (152.05 million hectares, up 1.5 million) and forecast yield. Production is expected to drop by 300,000 tons in Pakistan due to lower yields (down from last year's record level). In Japan and South Korea, government-mandated area reductions and declining yields are expected to cut production this year. The largest production gains are expected in India (up 2.1 million tons) and China (up 1.6 million). However, the largest percent production increases are expected in Australia and Brazil (both up 9 percent) due to higher forecast yields. Higher production is anticipated in Nigeria (up 100,000 tons) as well as the major rice producers in Southeast Asia, notably Bangladesh (up 800,000 tons) and Cambodia (up 190,000 tons). Only minor year-to-year area and production changes are expected in the EU, other Central and South America countries, the former Soviet Republics, and Africa. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133).
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| May 12 2006 | Northern Hemisphere Wheat Prospects |
The European Union's (EU-25) wheat crop is forecast to rebound from last year's below-average harvest of 122.6 million tons, to 125.5 million. Yield is also forecast to rise slightly from last year, to an above-average 5.48 tons per hectare. Area is forecast at 22.9 million hectares, up from last year's 22.5 million. The most noticeable year-to-year change is the much-improved outlook for southwestern Europe. Spain, Portugal, and southern France received above-average precipitation this season, greatly enhancing their yield potential above last year's drought reduced season. Overall, winter was much colder than average in the European Union, but snowcover provided adequate protection for most of the region's autumn-sown crops during dormancy. However, some of the cold events, particularly in the Baltics, eastern Germany, and Hungary, occurred when conditions were possibly conducive to winterkill (very low temperatures and little snowcover). Another potentially limiting factor for the European Union yield prospect for the 2006/07 season is the fall dryness. Areas of northeast Europe, including areas in and around Poland, experienced very dry weather last fall, creating poor soil conditions for planting. Establishment and germination conditions in these areas were likely below average. In addition, the spring "green-up" period began later than normal as lingering snowcover and cold temperatures delayed field work and plant activity. On average, crops are behind normal development by about two weeks. The European Union's largest wheat producer, France, is forecast to produce 39.0 million tons (36.9 million last year). Germany is forecast to produce 23.5 million tons (23.9 million) while Poland's production is forecast to drop to 8.3 million (8.8 million). Hungary's production is also forecast to drop to 4.4 million tons (5.1 million). Spain's much improved wheat crop is forecast at 6.1 million tons, compared to last year's 3.5 million. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)The aggregate wheat production for the Balkans (Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania) is forecast to drop from last year's above-average 12.3 million ton crop to 10.2 million tons this season. These southeast European countries have experienced two consecutive bumper crops, bolstered by favorable weather. Last year's crop was down from the record 2004/05 crop of 14.5 million tons, but above the average 11.5 million. Aggregate 2006/07 area is estimated to be down 200,000 hectares from last year, and yield is also estimated to decrease, to 2.66 tons per hectare. This is below last year's yield of 3.02 tons per hectare and the 5-year average. Typically, Romania, Bulgaria, and Serbia produce over 85 percent of the Balkan wheat crop, with Romania alone producing over 42 percent . The winter wheat crop in the Balkans (the crop is almost exclusively winter variety) has already experienced a number of severe weather incidents that has likely reduced yield potential. Last autumn, the winter wheat crop was planted late because the 2005/06 summer crops of corn and sunflower remained in the fields well into fall due to heavy rains. Some of the intended winter wheat area likely did not get planted and a portion of some that did likely lacked proper emergence and germination time before winter dormancy began. The 2005-2006 winter was rather severe, with very low temperatures. While much of the area's cropland was insulated by snowcover, some areas, especially in Romania, saw possible winterkill conditions. In addition, spring had a late arrival, delaying crop growth and field work. More recently, an extended pattern of heavy, widespread precipitation has inundated the area with rainfall, sending rivers over their banks, flooding fields, and further preventing and delaying field activities. Romania is forecast to produce 4.3 million tons (5.9 million) from 1.9 million hectares (2.1 million); Serbia is estimated to produce 1.8 million tons (2.0 million) from 550,000 hectares (540,000); and Bulgaria is estimated to produce 2.6 million tons (3.1 million) from 900,000 hectares (1.0 million). (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
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| Mar 10 2006 | Australia Barley: Output Up, Late Rains Force Farmers To Plant More Barley |
Australia's 2005/06 barley production is estimated at 9.9 million tons, up 1.4 million from last month and 2.2 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 4.7 million hectares, up 0.6 million from last month and 0.1 million from last year. Later than normal sowing rainfall is believed to have resulted in some area shifting away from canola and wheat to barley this season. In addition, area has increased due to a growing demand by beer manufacturers in China.The yield estimate of 2.11 tons per hectare is only slightly above the average (excluding the 2002 season's 100-year drought). Winter rainfall was near normal for most of the barley areas of Western Australia, and the crop condition was reported as good after an excellent start to the season. There were some dry pockets in the state, but for the most part the conditions were positive in Australia's second largest barley producing state. In eastern Australia, seasonal conditions were variable across the major cropping regions. An unusually dry May significantly delayed sowing operations until June's exceptionally heavy precipitation allowed sowing operations to be completed later than normal. This was followed by a very dry July for many growing areas. August and September had normal to above normal rainfall in most eastern barley areas. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Mar 10 2006 | Foreign Corn: Smaller Crops for Major Competitors in 2005/06 |
Foreign corn production in 2005/06 is estimated at 401.6 million tons, similar to last month, but down by 7.5 million from last year due to reduced production from major countries/regions such as European Union (EU), Argentina, and South Africa. For 2005/06, EU output decreased by 5.3 million tons to a total of 48.2 million, due to lower area and drought-reduced yields in France--largest producer in the EU. In Argentina and South Africa, below-average crops of 15.5 million tons and 7.5 million are expected this year, 5 million and 4 million lower than last year's record crops, respectively. The drop in Argentina's crop is due to lower area and unfavorable growing conditions, while in South Africa it is due entirely to lower area. The decrease in area in South Africa is attributable to lower prices, higher stocks, and reduced credit from banks and cooperatives. For this month, increases for India and Romania were almost completely offset by smaller crops in Brazil and Mexico. Larger harvested area in India and higher yields due to better weather in both India and Romania have been major contributors to the increase in production. (For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at 202-720-7339.)
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| Dec 1 2005 | Australia: Barley Production Forecast Higher |
The 2005/06 Australia barley production is forecast at 8.5 million tons, up 1.3 million from last month and up 0.8 million from last year. The area forecast is 4.1 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. Winter rainfall was near normal for most of the barley areas of Western Australia and crop conditions were reported as good after an excellent start to the season. There have been some dry pockets in the state, but for the most part the conditions are positive in Australia's second largest barley producing state. Seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of eastern Australia. An unusually dry May significantly delayed sowing operations until June's exceptionally heavy precipitation that allowed sowing operations to complete later than normal. The later than normal rainfall likely resulted in some area shifting away from wheat to barley this season. August and September saw normal to above normal rainfall in nearly all growing areas. Precipitation and temperature during October and November were optimal for grain fill in most barley growing regions. The barley harvest is complete in Queensland and is in full swing in the other states. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202 690-0135.)
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| Dec 1 2005 | Australia Wheat Production Forecast Higher |
Australia's wheat production for 2005/06 is forecast at 24.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up 1.4 million from last year. Area is forecast at 11.8 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month, but down 2 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.03 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last month and up 24 percent from last year. Winter rainfall was near normal for most of the wheat areas of Western Australia, the largest wheat producing state, and crop conditions were reportedly good after an excellent start to the season. There have been some dry pockets in the state, but for the most part the conditions are favorable. Seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of eastern Australia. Sowing was delayed due to dry May weather and finished later than usual following June precipitation. July was dry, but August and September saw normal to above normal rainfall in all crop areas except northern New South Wales and Queensland. Precipitation and temperatures during October and November were optimal for grain fill in most wheat growing regions. The wheat harvest is complete in Queensland and is in full swing in the other states. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Dec 1 2005 | Australia: Rapeseed Production High Despite Season's Delayed Start |
Australian rapeseed production for 2005/06 is forecast at 1.35 million tons, up 0.25 million from last month, but down 0.18 million from last year. The area is forecast at 0.94 million hectares, up 0.04 million from last month, but down from last year due to extended dryness during the optimal sowing period. The yield forecast of 1.44 tons per hectare is above last year and above the 5-year average. Except for the early season dryness, weather has been generally favorable, with abundant rainfall in June, and again in September during the critical flowering stage. The rapeseed harvest is in full swing in all producing states. Of the three main winter crops, the rapeseed harvest is completed first, followed by barley, then wheat. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Sep 1 2005 | Australia: Barley Production Increased |
Australia's 2005/06 barley production is forecast at 7.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last
month and up 0.5 million from last year. This forecast is below the record 10.3 million tons
produced during the 2003/04 season. This year-to-year production rise is the result of a forecast
higher yield. The current yield forecast is 2.02 tons per hectare and is above the 5-year average.
Barley is a hardy field crop that is less vulnerable to severe changes in seasona l conditions.
Because dryness delayed planting and the start to the season, area shifted from canola and other
crops to barley. The largest producing states of South Australia and Western Australia have
experienced positive growing conditions thus far this season. (For more information, contact
Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Dec 1 1996 | AUSTRALIA: OILSEEDS PRODUCTION ON THE RISE |
Australian oilseed production has increased in recent years due to favorable returns for canola, sunflowerseed, and soybeans. These three crops combined are projected to reach over 1.7 million tons in 1996/97. This is more than double the output harvested 10 years ago. The December 3, 1996 Crop Report published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) provided the following highlights and projections for the 1996/97 oilseed crops.
Australian canola ("00" variety rapeseed) production is estimated at 597,000 tons, up 6 percent from 1995/96. Above-average yields are projected in most producing states, except in Western Australia, where plantings and yield are expected to be slightly below average. Very little of the canola had been harvested as of early-December, delayed in some states by recent rains. The bulk of the crop is expected to be collected by the end of the second week of the month. Early-harvest indications from New South Wales suggest excellent seed quality and high oil content (46 to 47 percent). In Western Australia, the oil content of early-harvested seeds is below normal.
This summer, growers' have become more interested in planting sunflowers (especially the high oleic variety) and soybeans as gross profit margins continue to favor these crops. Total Australian sunflower planting for 1996/97 is forecast to more than double, to 158,000 hectares. Of this area, about 30,000 hectares is expected to be sown to the high oleic variety. Queensland is the leading producer, with an estimated 110,000 hectares sown to sunflowers this summer. Of the sunflowers planted thus far, germination and early development have been good-to-excellent.
For soybeans, plantings are projected to climb 44 percent from last year, to 46,000 hectares. Most of the increased area is expected to come from traditional cattle country, especially along the coast of New South Wales.
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| Dec 1 1996 | AUSTRALIA: GRAIN PRODUCTION REVISED HIGHER BY ABARE |
According to a December 3 crop report released by Australia's Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE), wheat production for 1996/97 is estimated at 21.3 million tons, up 4.3 million or 25 percent from last season. The increase reflects an estimated 13-percent rise in planting as well as near-record yield. Barley output is estimated at 6.0 million tons, up 10 percent from 1995/96; oats at 1.6 million, down 17 percent; sorghum at 1.1 million, down 32 percent, corn at 0.3 million, up slightly; and rice at 1.5 million (rough basis), up 53 percent.
For the winter crops (wheat, barley, and oats), generally mild weather throughout the growing season in New South Wales has led to a nearly ideal finish to an already excellent season. The September frosts appear to have had minimal production impact on the state as a whole, although some areas (around Moree) reported yield and quality losses. Most of the winter crops are harvested in the north, while the harvest is less advanced in the central and southern regions.
In Victoria, rains were favorable from June through September, but well below average in October and November. Due to the excellent weather prior to the dryness, yield reduction was minimized. In addition, isolated frosts in late-September likely reduced yield potential and affected grain quality. Harvesting began in November and will continue into late-January.
In Queensland, harvesting is almost complete. The state experienced generally favorable weather, but frosts in late-September reduced yield and grain quality in the Central Highlands and southwestern regions. Yield for the State, however, remains exceptional.
In South Australia, scattered frosts in late-September and early-October, combined with the relatively dry finish to the season, reduced yield potential and may have caused some wheat to be downgraded. However, rainfall after the frosts proved to be timely and may have caused secondary tillering in some damaged crops. For the State, yield is expected to be well above average. With harvest activity about two to three weeks later this season, completion is expected by January.
In Western Australia, a wet season has contributed to excellent yields and caused harvesting delays. Dry weather is needed to accelerate the harvest pace. Harvest is virtually complete in the North and progresses south throughout December and January.
For the summer crops (corn, sorghum, and rice), planting is underway. Favorable rainfall has resulted in good soil moisture and allowed sorghum planting to start in central Queensland and northern New South Wales; however, area is projected to be lower than the previous year due to falling cereal prices. In addition, some plantings in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales are delayed due to late harvesting of the large winter crops. For rice, area is expected to be higher than last season as farmers respond to favorable returns and plentiful supplies of irrigation water. Thus far, the weather has been cool.
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| Jun 1 1997 | AUSTRALIA: WHEAT OUTPUT LOWERED DUE TO EL NINO |
On June 17, nearly two weeks after Australia's first 1997/98 wheat production forecast of 19.2 million tons, the Australia Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) in its quarterly review, cut its forecast 15 percent to 16.2 million tons. (Production in 1996/97 is estimated at record 23.6 million tons.) While sown wheat area is forecast to remain historically high and unchanged from the June 3 report of 11.1 million hectares, yield is cut due to expected below-average growing conditions created by the latest El Nino event. El Nino may cause dryness Australia's eastern wheat and barley growing regions.
An early dry spell in eastern Australia caused some concern about soil moisture, but western Australia received adequate rainfall to date. In Queensland, wheat is forecast to increase 10 percent; however, after an earlier dry period, good follow-up rains are needed in June. Wheat area in New South Wales is expected to remain stable. Most of New South Wales has benefitted from May rainfall. Planting area in South Australia is expected to be marginally lower than 1996/97, while virtually the same in Victoria. Dry pockets linger in the southeastern States and a good soaking rain is needed to ensure even germination and proper establishment. In Western Australia, ABARE's June 3 report indicates that the crop has had an ideal start to the season and wheat area is off slightly from last season's level. Planting is usually completed by the end of July.
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| Aug 1 1997 | AUSTRALIA: WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWER FOR 1997/98 |
Australian wheat production for 1997/98 is forecast at 16.0 million tons, down 32 percent from 1996/97 due to a decrease in planted area and unfavorable weather. Area is forecast at 10.8 million hectares, down 3 percent from 1996/97. The decrease in area reflects drought-reduced plantings.
Wheat-growing areas in Australia have been significantly drier than normal, particularly in the southeastern growing regions. Victoria and South Australia, historically producing roughly 26 percent of the wheat, had low soil moisture at planting and are most affected by the below-average rainfall. The recent and much needed rains in the southern areas will only partially offset the extremely dry conditions to-date. In addition, the USDA agricultural counselor in Canberra reports that heavy frosts have been recorded in many areas of southern New South Wales and Victoria. Queensland and New South Wales, producing 33 percent of all wheat, had satisfactory soil moisture, but conditions have deteriorated with lack of precipitation. Heading will occur in late August for Queensland and New South Wales. The remaining growing areas will be heading in September. Western Australia historically produces about 40 percent of Australia's wheat. Growing conditions in Western Australia remain good and production may approach last year's 7.7 million tons.
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| Oct 1 1997 | AUSTRALIA: 1997/98 BARLEY PRODUCTION FORECAST IMPROVES |
Australian barley production for 1997/98 is forecast at 4.7 million tons, up 12 percent from last month due to improved growing conditions. However, the improved prospects still place the crop 29 percent below last year due mainly to lower yield projections. Western Australia barley areas are doing well. Eastern barley regions experienced drought conditions during the first portion of growing season. Cumulative precipitation during the first part of the eastern growing season was significantly below normal and resulted in varying degrees of crop stress. The first beneficial rains fell in the southeast in August and September, while in the northeast, rains fell in late September. Near to above-normal rain in August and September improved the situation in many areas, but yield potential remains below the five year average.
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| Nov 1 1997 | AUSTRALIA: 1997/98 BARLEY PRODUCTION FORECAST IMPROVES |
Australian barley production for 1997/98 is forecast at 5.2 million tons, up
11 percent or 0.5 tons from last month's estimate. Area is forecast at 3.2
million hectares unchanged from last month and only slightly below last year.
Yield is forecast of 1.63 metric tons per hectare for 1997/98 reflecting
improved growing conditions in South Australia and Western Australia. Heavy
rains occurred during the final week of October in the southeastern growing
regions, ending nearly 3 weeks of dryness. Australian state agronomists
determined the rainfall came at the end of a critical window for crop growth,
aiding grain fill, but due to the advanced stage of development, the crop may
not realize the rain's maximum benefit. Barley production in Western
Australia, which historically produces 30 percent of Australia's barley, is
projected at a record level.
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| Nov 1 1997 | AUSTRALIA: 1997/98 WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST IMPROVES |
Australia's 1997/98 wheat production is forecast at 17.5 million tons, up 0.5
million from last month's estimate, but 25 percent less than last year's
record crop of 23.6. Area is forecast at 10.8 million hectares, unchanged
from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. The month-to-month
yield increase reflects improved growing conditions in South Australia and
Western Australia. This season's yield forecast of 1.62 tons per hectare is 6
percent below the 5-year average of 1.73 tons per hectare. During the final
week of October heavy rains occurred in the southeastern growing regions,
ending nearly 3 weeks of dryness. Australian state agronomists indicated that
this rainfall came at the end of a critical window for crop development and
aided grain fill, but due to the advanced stage of the wheat, its full benefit
may not have been realized. Western Australia, which historically produces 40
percent of Australia's wheat, is projected to produce another bumper harvest
with yields estimated at a record level.
Cumulative precipitation in many of Australia's growing areas has been below
normal and has resulted in varying degrees of crop stress throughout the
season. Harvesting is underway in Queensland and northern New South Wales,
while in South Australia and Victoria wheat harvesting begins in early
December. Crop conditions in Western Australia remain favorable.
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| Dec 1 1997 | AUSTRALIA: WHEAT AND BARLEY ESTIMATES RAISED AS HARVEST BEGINS |
Wheat and barley production in Australia for 1997/98 is forecast at 18.0 million tons and 5.5 million, respectively. For wheat, production is revised up 0.5 million tons this month as initial harvest results in Queensland indicate a larger-than-expected crop. In addition, Western Australia had favorable weather throughout most of the growing season and reports indicate that record yield in that state may be achieved. However, nationally, the total wheat yield of 1.67 tons per hectare is 3 percent below the 5-year average due to earlier dryness in the eastern and southern growing regions. For barley, production is revised up 0.3 million tons from a month ago due to preliminary harvest indications. Reports indicate that Western Australia is set to produce a bumper barley crop. According to Australia's Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE), variable weather in Australia has caused some quality issues for wheat and barley . In some of the early harvested crops, there have been small sized kernels (as a result of dryness during the grain fill stage) and for barley, discoloration (rains at harvest) has lowered quality from malting to feed.
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| Mar 1 1998 | AUSTRALIA: COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION DOWN |
Australian coarse grain production for 1997/98 is forecast at 8.9 million tons, down 0.4 million form last month and down 12 percent from 1996/97. The 1997/98 Australian barley crop is estimated at 6.0 million tons, 12 percent smaller than last year. A drier growing season and smaller planted area contributed to lower production. Sorghum production for the 1997/98 crop is forecast 1 percent lower than in 1996/97 at 1.2 million tons. The production of oats in 1997/98 is forecast at 1.2 million tons up 0.1 million tons from last month, but down 23 percent from last year. The area planted to oats has decreased from last year due to the relative attractiveness of wheat production. In 1996/97, about 1.1 million hectares were planted to oats, in contrast to this year's area of 850,000 hectares.
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| Nov 1 1998 | AUSTRALIA: WHEAT AND BARLEY REDUCED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER |
Australia's 1998/99 wheat output is forecast at 22.0 million tons, down 1.5 million or 6 percent from last month, but up 13 percent from 1997/98. Wheat planted area is reduced to 11.5 million hectares, down 0.3 million from last month, as indicated by a recent report by Australia's Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE). Barley production is lowered this month to an estimated 5.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 8 percent from last month and down 14 percent from 1997/98. Area remains unchanged at an estimated 3.0 million hectares.
Combinations of persistent rains across the already saturated cropping areas in northern New South Wales and Queensland, frost damage in parts of Western Australia, and below normal rainfall in Victoria adversely affected the wheat quality and quantity this past month. However, South Australia and central New South Wales have experienced a generally favorable growing season.
According to ABARE, around 0.2 million hectares have been lost in New South Wales due to flooding. In addition, fungus outbreaks are reported in the areas of excessive rainfall, and much of the northern crop may be downgraded for quality. The frost damage from late-September in Western Australia will become more evident as the crop moves into harvest. ABARE reports that some frost-affected areas have been cut for hay, while "significant quantities of wheat are expected to be downgraded to feed quality in frost-affected areas."
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| Dec 1 1998 | AUSTRALIA: WHEAT OUTPUT REDUCED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER |
Australia's 1998/99 wheat output is forecast at 21.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month, but up 8 percent from 1997/98. Wheat area is unchanged this month at 11.5 million hectares. Prevailing cool and wet weather has delayed harvesting activities in the Northern States. Both quality and quantity have suffered due to the unfavorable weather, according to a November field report completed by USDA personnel. The following is a brief description of their findings.
Wheat production in Queensland will be nearly double the level achieved in 1997/98; however, excessive rainfall during the growing season has lowered crop quality. Weather in New South Wales (NSW) has been variable with some areas experiencing better-than-normal conditions, while others have been badly affected by frost, flooding, and disease. However, the NSW crop is likely to be larger than the previous season and above the five-year average. In Victoria, the crops have been negatively affected by very dry weather at critical times in the Mallee, frost damage in the Wimmera, and late rain in some areas. Victoria's crop size is expected to be below both last season and the five-year average. South Australia may have a record crop due to a larger planted area and above-average yield, despite some problems with frost, late rain, and disease. Western Australia appears set for a record crop despite frost events, rain, and cool conditions that delayed harvest. Early indications of frost damage in Western Australia appear to have been exaggerated and have been offset by excellent yields in the northern and southern wheat belt.
While the wheat harvest will be one of the largest on record, adverse weather conditions are expected to result in a significant quantity of wheat being reduced to feed or general purpose grade. There are reports of extensive grain discoloration. The result of this downgrading has been that a lot of grain has been stored on farm due to the expectation that this grain may attract a higher price in the future. The Australian Wheat Board is reportedly moving to maximize delivery of this grain by offering higher prices for grain (especially higher protein) that has a higher than normal quantity of defects, and then blending the grain to maximize return.
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| Apr 1 1999 | AUSTRALIA: RAINS LOWER COTTON OUTPUT |
Cotton production for 1998/99 is estimated at 3.2 million bales down 0.2 million from last month, but still a record. The area estimate is reduced from 550,000 to 525,000 hectares based on lower seed sales and abandonment due to a February hail storm. In addition, cotton yield is reduced to below average levels because of heavy insect infestation throughout the cotton area and recent heavy rains in the major growing area of northeast New South Wales. This area received from 90 to 130 mm of rain over the April 1-5 period, damaging the crop as 80 percent of the bolls were open. Quality will also be reduced because of the intense rain event.
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| Feb 1 2000 | Australia: 1999/2000 Wheat Production Forecast Rises |
Australias 1999/2000 wheat output is estimated at 23.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and up 2.5 million or 12 percent from last year. There is no change in area this month, however, area is up 0.4 million hectares or 4 percent from last year. At 12.0 million hectares, this is Australias largest area since 1984/85. Wheat production is projected higher this season as a result of a marginally larger planted area and above average yields. The weather over much of the grain growing regions has provided significant winter rainfall amounts, particularly during the latter portion of the season, while only a few pockets in the southern growing areas experienced extended dry conditions. In many areas, late season rainfall adversely impacted grain quality and slowed harvesting. The yields will be above average in most states with the final yields approaching record levels in Western Australia. Harvesting operations have finished in all regions except for the latest planted crops in the south.
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| Mar 1 2000 | Australia: Wheat Output at Record Level, Barley Revised Lower |
USDA estimates Australias 1999/2000 wheat output at a record 24.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 2.5 million or 11 percent from last year. Although there is no change in area this month, wheat plantings of 12.0 million hectares is the largest area since 12.1 million was planted in 1984/85. Weather over much of the grain growing regions provided significant rainfall amounts, particularly during the latter portion of the season boosting yields in later planted crops, but negatively impacting quality in the early planted wheat.
Australian barley production is estimated at 5.5 million tons, down 0.2 million from last months estimate and down 21 percent from 1998/99. Area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, down 0.1 million this month and down 22 percent from last year. The glut of world feed grain supplies and subsequent lower prices led to the smallest area planted to barley in ten years.
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| Sep 1 2000 | Australia: Barley Estimated Up on Higher Yields |
Australias 2000/01 barley crop is estimated at 5.9 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month and up 1.4 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.0 million hectares, up 0.15 million hectares from last month and up 0.7 million from last year. Growing conditions have been average to good over much of the grain belt; however, conditions in South Australia have been very good with barley yield forecast to be well above average
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| Oct 1 2000 | Australia: Dry Weather Hurts Wheat Yield Prospects |
The 2000/01 wheat crop is estimated at 21.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 9 percent from last month and down 13 percent from last year. Estimated area is unchanged at 11.7 million hectares, but yields are forecast lower due to unfavorable dryness across parts of the winter wheat areas. Dry weather continued through September and early October in Queensland and northern New South Wales, which has been hot and dry for most of the growing season. Although most of Western Australia received some rainfall last month, the southern part of the state has been especially dry. According to local sources, the wheat crop is now entering the critical heading/flowering stage and significant rainfall is needed immediately to prevent a further decline in yield potential. Another source of concern is the possibility of a major locust outbreak this spring in all wheat producing states, with the threat in Western Australia being the worst in ten years. Ideal breeding conditions have been experienced across the grain growing regions, and locusts have been spotted throughout the wheat belt. Spraying is scheduled to occur within a few weeks to combat the problem.
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| Nov 1 2000 | Australia: 2000/01 Barley Production Forecast Decreased |
The 2000/01 barley crop is estimated at 5.4 million tons, down 0.2 million or 4 percent from last month, but up 0.9 million or 20 percent from last year. Estimated area is unchanged at 3.0 million hectares. Moderate yield reductions are anticipated due to the dry weather which has persisted through October in portions of the grain belt. The second largest barley producing state, Western Australia, experienced delayed planting rains, followed by several weeks of below normal rainfall. During the month of October the severity and extent of dryness in Western Australia has dramatically increased and will now result in substantial reductions in barley yield.
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| Nov 1 2000 | Australia: Dry Weather Reduces Wheat Yield and Production Prospects |
The 2000/01 wheat crop is estimated at 20.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month and down 4.1 million or 17 percent from last year's record. Estimated area is unchanged at 11.7 million hectares. Yield reductions are anticipated due to the dry weather which has persisted through October in portions of the grain belt. Western Australia experienced delayed planting rains, followed by several weeks of below normal rainfall. During the month of October, the severity and extent of dryness in Western Australia has dramatically increased. Most of the southeastern Australia grain regions have experienced favorable weather this season; however, Western Australia's dry conditions will significantly impact Australia's total grain production this season.
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| Dec 1 2000 | Australia: Record Rainfall Reduces Wheat Production Forecast |
Wheat output for 2000/01 is estimated at 19.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 3 percent from last month and down 5.5 million or 22 percent from last year's record. Estimated area is revised to 12.0 million hectares. Yield reductions are anticipated in New South Wales because of recent heavy rains and flooding. Record rainfall in parts of northern New South Wales has resulted in grain losses, both in quality and quantity. The area affected by the heavy rains and flooding represents approximately 30 percent of the state's sown area. However, good weather conditions in the southern part of the state should result in above average yields for the region. Victoria and South Australia will both experience the highest wheat production in several years with above average yields. Recent harvest information from Western Australia indicates some areas have performed better than expected and overall state yield may not be as low as initially forecast.
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| Feb 1 2001 | Australia: 2000/01 Wheat and Barley Production Rises |
Australian 2000/01 wheat output is estimated at 20.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month. This is 4.5 million tons or 18 percent lower than last seasons record 25.0 million. Area did not change this month. Compared to last season, area is down 0.3 million hectares, or 3 percent from last years record. A significant portion of the 2000/01 crop suffered some weather damage which led many growers to store a larger than normal quantity of grain on farms in hopes for better prices later in the season for the damaged grain. New South Wales and Western Australia are forecast to have greater production than previously estimated. South Australia and Victoria are forecast at near record production. Barley production forecast has been increased from 5.4 to 5.6 million metric tons for the 2000/01 winter grain season with reports of a substantial proportion achieving the top malting grade.
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| Feb 1 2001 | Australia: 2000/01 Rice Production Hits Record |
Australian rice production for 2000/01 is forecast at a record 1.1 million tons on a milled rice basis. This is an increase of 172,000 tons or 18 percent from last month, resulting from favorable growing conditions. Area is forecast at a record 175,000 hectares, up 16,000 or 10 percent from last month. The area increase is due to the abundance of water supplies after three years of irrigation restrictions in the major growing valleys along the New South Wales and Victoria border. This area has experienced near-perfect growing conditions this season with beneficial above-normal temperatures during January. Near record yields are anticipated for this seasons rice crop.
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| Mar 1 2001 | Australia: 2000/01 Cotton Production Forecast Increased |
Australian cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 3.4 million bales, up 0.1 million or 3 percent from last month but unchanged from last year. Estimated area is revised to 0.485 million hectares, up 0.02 million from last month. Above average temperatures and periodic rainfall have significantly improved conditions in most of the cotton growing areas. The cotton season endured a rough start with dry conditions during September and October, followed by heavy rains in November. However, beneficial weather has predominated in the east and has bolstered yield prospects. Damage from heavy rains and flooding had less impact than previously believed. Irrigated cotton fields typically have perimeter levees as part of the irrigation scheme, and these are reported to have successfully reduced damage.
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| Jun 1 2001 | Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Decreased |
Australia 2001/02 wheat production is forecast at 23 million tons, down 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month but up 1.8 million or 9 percent from last year. Projected area is 12.0 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month, and down 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year. Below average rainfall and low soil moisture profiles across several areas of southern Australia have delayed planting of the winter wheat crop. However, strong prices are likely to encourage producers to plant later than the optimal dates, once adequate sowing rains are received. Reports at the end of May show several regions were affected by the delayed start of the season. Since then, rainfall amounts of 10mm to 50mm have fallen in many of these regions, although additional rain is needed. Rising livestock prices have boosted area devoted to pasture this season.
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| Jul 1 2001 | Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Down |
Australian wheat production in 2001/02 is projected at 21.5 million tons, down 1.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but up 0.3 million or 2 percent from last year. Forecast area is 11.8 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent last month, and down 0.3 million or 2 percent from last year. Below average rainfall in May and low soil moisture across several southern areas delayed winter wheat planting past the optimal dates. However, prices at the time encouraged producers to continue planting operations past the prime season. Since the beginning of June, rainfall accumulations have improved for most areas, except Queensland and Western Australia. Dry conditions have persisted in Western Australia, lowering area and slowing emergence and establishment.
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| Sep 1 2001 | Australia: Cotton Production Forecast Falls |
Cotton output in 2001/02 is forecast at 3.2 million bales, down 0.2 million or 6 percent from last month and down 0.3 million or 9 percent from last year. Estimated area is 0.450 million hectares, down 0.05 million or 10 percent from last month and last year. Prospects for reduced irrigation supplies in Queensland and low world cotton prices are expected to result in less area planted to cotton this season. Given the outlook for improved returns with sorghum and sunflowerseed, producers will likely shift away from cotton to those crops. Cotton planting operations usually commence in mid-September in central Queensland and progress southward as soil temperatures rise.
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| Sep 1 2001 | Australia: Sorghum Production Forecast Surges |
Sorghum output in 2001/02 is forecast at 2.0 million tons, up 0.4 million or 25 percent from last month and up 0.45 million or 29 percent from last year. Estimated area is 0.75 million hectares, up 0.15 million or 25 percent from last month and up 0.16 million or 27 percent from last year. Favorable soil moisture levels in New South Wales and improved feed prices are expected to increase sorghum planting this season. In Queensland, large areas not planted to winter grain earlier in the year are prime candidates for spring-planted sorghum.
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| Sep 1 2001 | Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Decreased |
Wheat output in 2001/02 is forecast at 20.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month and down 0.7 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 11.2 million hectares, down 0.6 million or 5 percent from last month but up 0.9 million or 7 percent from last year. Below average rainfall and low soil moisture in Queensland and Western Australia have resulted in a lower planted area and reduced yield prospects. Conversely, growing season conditions in New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria are generally favorable.
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| Nov 1 2001 | Australia: Barley Production Forecast Rises |
The 2001/02 barley crop is forecast at 7.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 17 percent from last month, but down 0.2 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 3.7 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 16 percent from last month, and unchanged from last year. The barley area forecast is revised based on new Australia Bureau of Statistics data that indicate last years planted area was greater than previously estimated. Area and production for 2000/01 are also revised upward this month, by 24 percent to 3.7 million hectares and by 29 percent to 7.2 million tons, respectively. The current season area and production are revised upward to reflect crop conditions relative to last years crop. South Australia, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of Australia's total barley production, has seen very favorable conditions. The Australia winter growing season began drier than normal in the western and northeastern grain areas. Seasonal conditions improved in Western Australia and New South Wales. Abundant rainfall in the later portion of the season in South Australia and Victoria will result in above average yields.
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| Nov 1 2001 | Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Increases |
The 2001/02 wheat crop is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 1.8 million or 7 percent from last year. Estimated area is 12.0 million hectares, up 0.8 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 1.0 million or 8 percent from last year. The wheat area forecast was revised based on new Australia Bureau of Statistics data that indicate last years planted area was greater than previously estimated. Area and production for 2000/01 are also revised upward this month, by 8 percent to 13.0 million hectares and by 12 percent to 23.8 million tons, respectively. The current season (2001/02) area and production are revised upward to reflect crop conditions relative to last years crop. The Australia winter growing season began with dryness in the western and northeastern wheat areas. Conditions improved in Western Australia and New South Wales, while Queensland endured extreme dryness for most of the winter season. Timely and abundant rainfall in South Australia and Victoria will result in above average yields.
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| Feb 1 2002 | Australia: Barley Production Forecast Increased |
The 2001/02 barley crop is forecast at 7.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 4 percent from last month and up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year. Estimated area is unchanged at 3.7 million hectares, similar to last year. Preliminary harvest information indicates potentially record crop size in South Australia and better than expected output in drought affected Western Australia. Historically, South Australia produces approximately 40 percent of Australias barley.
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| Feb 1 2002 | Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Rises |
The 2001/02 wheat crop is forecast at 23.5 million tons, up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year. Estimated area is 12.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 1.0 million or 8 percent from last year. Preliminary harvest information indicates larger crops in South Australia and Western Australia than earlier forecast. The Australia winter growing season began with dryness in the western and northeastern wheat areas. However, the minimal rains were timely and proved sufficient for supporting crop growth and averting the earlier anticipated sharp yield declines in drought-affected Western Australia. South Australia conditions were excellent and yields could achieve a record high.
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| Mar 1 2002 | Australia: 2001/02 Wheat Production Forecast Increase |
The 2001/02 wheat crop is estimated at 24.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year. Estimated area is 12.5 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month, but down 0.5 million or 4 percent from last year. There are indications that planted areas in South Australia and Western Australia increased over earlier estimates. The Australia winter growing season began with dryness in the western and northeastern wheat areas. However, the minimal rains were timely and proved sufficient for supporting crop growth and averting the earlier anticipated yield declines in drought-affected Western Australia. Growing conditions in South Australia were excellent for most of the season and yields are expected to exceed previous records.
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| May 1 2002 | Australia: Barley Production Forecast Decrease |
The 2002/03 barley crop is forecast at 6.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 13 percent from last year. This is based on a forecast area of 3.3 million hectares, down 0.4 million or 11 percent from 2001/02. The barley growing regions, including Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales, have received below normal precipitation during the month of April and growers are waiting for autumn rains to begin planting. Western Australia has received above-average precipitation for the past month and winter grain planting is well underway. Historically, South Australia produces approximately 40 percent of Australias barley and in the 2001/02 season produced a record crop.
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| Jun 1 2002 | Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Decrease |
The 2002/03 wheat crop is forecast at 23.0 million tons, down 1.5 million or 6 percent from last month, and down 1.0 million or 4 percent from last year. Forecast area is reduced to 12.3 million hectares, 0.5 million or 4 percent lower than last month and 0.7 million or 5 percent below last year. Wheat growing areas of Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria, have received significantly below-normal precipitation during April and May. Many growers are waiting for autumn rains to begin planting. The optimal planting window will pass later in June; however, the southern areas can be planted as late as July.
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| Aug 1 2002 | Australia: 2002/03 Wheat and Rapeseed Production Estimates Fall |
Australias 2002/03 wheat crop is estimated at 20.0 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month, and down 4 million from last year. Production is revised downward due to continued dryness in Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia. The 2002/03 rapeseed crop is estimated at 1.2 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month and down 0.5 million from last year.
Wheat area and yields are revised lower, based on lack of adequate rainfall for planting and crop establishment. Significant area reductions are anticipated in Queensland, northern New South Wales, and in the eastern portion of Western Australia. Wheat areas in the southern growing states of Victoria and South Australia are expected to be similar to last season in response to generally favorable conditions, a later planting window, and improved price expectations. Wheat areas of West Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland received only 40 to 60 percent of normal precipitation for the period May 1 to July 31.
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| Aug 1 1999 | AUSTRALIA: BARLEY AREA AND PRODUCTION FORECAST FALLS |
Australian barley production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 4.7 million tons, down 6 percent or 0.3 million tons from last months estimate due to a decrease in area. The latest harvested area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, down from last months 2.65 million based on an August 31 crop report from Australias Bureau of Agricultural Resource and Economics (ABARE). This is the smallest barley area in four years with last years area pegged at 3.0 million hectares. A glut of domestic feed grain supplies and a poor export price outlook due to aggressive EU subsidies have resulted in less barley being planted this year. The weather over much of the grain growing regions have seen adequate rainfall amounts with exception of South Australia where dry areas continue to be a problem. Barley yield for Australia is projected to be 1.88 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last season.
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| Sep 1 1999 | AUSTRALIA: BARLEY AREA AND PRODUCTION FORECAST FALLS |
Australian barley production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 4.7 million tons, down 6 percent or 0.3 million tons from last months estimate due to a decrease in area. The latest harvested area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, down from last months 2.65 million based on an August 31 crop report from Australias Bureau of Agricultural Resource and Economics (ABARE). This is the smallest barley area in four years with last years area pegged at 3.0 million hectares. A glut of domestic feed grain supplies and a poor export price outlook due to aggressive EU subsidies have resulted in less barley being planted this year. The weather over much of the grain growing regions have seen adequate rainfall amounts with exception of South Australia where dry areas continue to be a problem. Barley yield for Australia is projected to be 1.88 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last season.
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| Nov 1 1999 | AUSTRALIA: WHEAT PRODUCTION INCREASES ON FAVORABLE WEATHER |
Australias 1999/2000 wheat output is estimated at 23.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and up 2.0 million or 10 percent from last year. There is no change in area this month; however, area is up 4 percent from last year. This years wheat area of 12.0 million hectares is the largest area since 1984/85 when 12.1 million hectares were planted. The weather over much of the grain growing regions has produced adequate winter rainfall amounts, with the exception of South Australia where dry areas continue to be a problem. State yields are expected to be near the four year average, except for above average yields in New South Wales. Yields in South Australia are not projected to reach record levels this season as a result of delayed planting last autumn and drier conditions. New South Wales began harvesting last week along the northern wheat belt. Harvest in Victoria and South Australia will begin at the end of November. The western Australia, Geraldton zone harvest began the last week of October and will continue south into December.
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| Jun 1 2005 | Australia: 2005/06 Wheat Production Forecast Lower |
Australian wheat production for 2005/06 is forecast at 21.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, and unchanged from last year. The area forecast is 11.5 million hectares, down 0.5 million from last month and 0.7 million from last year. The optimal planting window will pass later in June; however, the southern areas of Australia can be planted as late as July, although yield reduction is often associated with late season plantings. The yield forecast is 1.87 tons per hectare and is below the 5-year average excluding the severe drought of 2002. Conditions are currently mixed in the grain growing region, highly favorable in the western region, while too dry in many eastern areas. Western Australia is experiencing one of the best starts to a season in many years. The northern half of the states grain belt experienced an excellent start to the season created by April rainfall. Conditions throughout the month of May have remained excellent, benefiting both crop establishment and subsoil moisture profile. In the southern portion of Western Australia, seeding programs began in the first week of May. Western Australia on average produces 37 percent of the national production. In Queensland and northern New South Wales, seeding programs began during the second week of May with an above average rainfall earlier in the month. Since that time, conditions have turned dry and more rainfall is needed. In Victoria, South Australia, and lower portions of New South Wales, farmers continue to wait for rain with many farmers currently dry sowing. Assuming normal precipitation from this point on, Australia will produce a crop similar to last season. In order for Australia to achieve 21.5 million tons this season, rainfall must be received within the next 10 days. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Sep 1 2002 | Australia: Drought Reduction Partially Offset by Higher Cotton Prices |
Australian cotton production for 2002/03 is estimated at 2.2 million bales, down 0.4 million or 15 percent from last month and down 31 percent from last years crop. During the past 6 months, 25 percent of the normal rainfall has fallen in northern New South Wales (NSW) with 58 percent of the normal rainfall occurring in east-central Queensland. With these extreme drought conditions throughout the Australian cotton belt, irrigation allocations have been reduced sharply for cotton sowing operations, which should start in the next couple of weeks in central Queensland and extend southward a month later into NSW. Australian irrigated area is estimated to fall by nearly 138,000 hectares from last year to 250,000 this year as water allocations are reduced. With the current dry conditions throughout the cotton region, dry land area is forecast at 50,000 hectares, down from the 5-year average of 75,000 assuming normal rainfall in October and November. Even in the face of these drought conditions and the strengthening Australian dollar, cotton area is supported by a higher Cotlook A-Index price, averaging 49.5 cents per pound so far this season through September 5, up 16 percent or nearly 7 cents over last year. During the same time period, the Australian dollar strengthened in terms of the US dollar from 1.9475 to 1.8288. The gain in cotton price has offset the stronger Australia dollar by about 8 cents per pound.
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| Sep 1 2002 | Australia: 2002/03 Wheat Production Forecast Decreased |
The 2002/03 Australian wheat crop is forecast at 15.0 million tons, down 5.0 million or 25 percent from last month and down 9.0 million or 38 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 11.0 million hectares, down 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month and down 1.5 million or 12 percent from last year. Area is lower this season due to dry conditions at planting. Production is revised downward due to continued dryness. Wheat growing areas of Queensland (QLD), New South Wales (NSW), and Victoria (VIC) have lost yield potential as a result of drought conditions. In the 1995/96 Season, Australia produced 16.5 million tons. Wheat areas of NSW, VIC, South Australia, and Western Australia received 40 to 60 percent of normal precipitation for the period June 1 to August 31. As the crop enters the flowering stage during September, additional rainfall is needed to avoid further yield loss.
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| Oct 1 2002 | Australian Wheat Production Forecast Decreases for 2002/03 |
The 2002/03 Australian wheat crop is forecast at 13.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 13 percent from last month and down 11.0 million or 46 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 10.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 1.7 million or 13 percent from last year. Production is revised down due to lack of rainfall during September when the crop was progressing through the flowering stage. Wheat growing areas of Queensland (QLD), New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (VIC), and South Australia (SA) have lost significant yield potential. During the 1994/95 season, Australia experienced a severe drought that resulted in an exceptionally low wheat output of 8.9 million tons. This season wheat areas of NSW, VIC, SA, and WA received 40 to 60 percent of normal precipitation for the period June 1 to September 30.
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| Nov 1 2002 | Drought Drops Estimated Australian Wheat and Barley Production Further |
Dry conditions have persisted in winter grain areas, resulting in abandonment and premature
cutting for livestock feed. Production is revised downward due to extended dryness in
Queensland especially for wheat, while dryness in New South Wales, Victoria, and South
Australia has affected
both wheat and
barley, negatively
impacting area and
yield. Wheat and
barley growing areas
received only 40 to
60 percent of normal
precipitation for the
period August 1 to
October 31. Above
average temperatures
and high winds may
shrivel grain, further
reducing production
weight. The 2002/03
wheat crop is forecast
at 11.0 million tons,
down 2.0 million or
15 percent from last
month and down 13.0 million or 54 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 10.3 million
hectares, down 0.5 million or 5 percent from last month and down 2.2 million or 22 percent from
last year.
The barley crop is forecast at 3.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 22 percent from last month
and down 4.0 million or 53 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares, down
0.2 million or 6 percent from last month and down 0.7 million or 19 percent from last year. This
season Western Australia will produce the largest share of barley in response to relatively better
conditions and improved price expectations. Typically, South Australia is the largest producer of
barley accounting for 40 percent of total production. This season deteriorating conditions in
eastern and southern Australia has lowered yield potential.
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| Dec 1 2002 | Forecast Australian Summer and Winter Crops Drop as Drought Deepens |
Australian summer crop plantings of cotton, rice, and sorghum in 2002/03 are sharply reduced
from last year. Rainfall in major summer crop regions is well below average for the October-November period, forcing
farmers to slash crop sown in dryland areas. The lack of rainfall has reduced water availability in the major catchments area of the Murray Darling Basin, reducing the area that farmers could irrigate. The lack of rainfall during the past winter months has decreased yields further than previously projected for harvested winter
wheat and canola.
Australian cotton production is forecast at 1.5 million bales, down 0.5 million or 25 percent from
last month, and down 53 percent from last years crop. This is the lowest production since
1995/96, when output was 2.0 million. Harvested area is estimated at 225,000 hectares, down
55,000 or 20 percent from last month, and down 46 percent from last years level. This is the
lowest area since 1994/95, when area was 222,000 hectares with irrigated at 186,000 and dryland
area at 36,000, with production at 1.6 million bales. During the April/October period, rainfall
was 47 percent of normal in Northern New South Wales (NSW) and 53 percent of normal in
East-Central Queensland. With drought conditions throughout the cotton belt, irrigation
allocations have been reduced sharply for planting operations, which are wrapping up for the
season. Irrigated area is estimated to fall by nearly 178,000 hectares from last year, to 210,000
in 2002/03, due to reduced water allocations. With dry conditions throughout the cotton region,
dryland area is forecast at 15,000 hectares, down from the 5-year average of 75,000.
Australian milled rice production is forecast at 315,000 metric tons, down 436,000 or 58 percent
from last month, and down 615,000 tons or 66 percent from last year. Area is forecast at only
50,000 hectares, down 70,000 or 58 percent from last month, and down 101,000 hectares from
last year, as reduced water availability in the southern irrigation areas has resulted in severe
curtailment of area planted to rice.
The 2002/03 Australian sorghum crop
is forecast at 1.0 million tons, down
1.2 million or 55 percent from last
month, and down 777,000 tons or 44
percent from last year. Area is
forecast at 500,000 hectares, down
350,000 or 41 percent from last month,
and down 273,000 hectares or 35
percent from last year. Queensland
and northern New South Wales
summer crop farmers are poised to
plant a large sorghum crop in response
to high prices, increasing cash flow,
and as alternative to more input
intensive cotton. The only limiting
factor is precipitation. Significant declines in both area and yield are anticipated due to
insufficient moisture to plant sorghum. The soil moisture reserves in large portions of summer
crop area have been depleted so severely that most crops will depend entirely on rains received,
rather than on stored soil moisture. Delayed sowing, shorter season varieties, and water stress
will lower yields.
The 2002/03 Australian wheat crop is forecast at 10.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 5 percent
from last month, and down 13.5 million or 56 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 10.3
million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 2.2 million or 18 percent from last year.
Though only a small portion of the total crop, a greater percentage of wheat fields were cut for
hay this season. The dramatic rise in domestic feed prices combined with the prospect of
continued dry conditions during grainfill led many farmers to harvest hay rather than grain.
Production also is revised downward due to poor finishing conditions. The effect of recent frosts
and high winds are now evident as harvest reveals shriveled grain and lower weights.
The 2002/03 Australian canola crop is forecast at 0.7 million tons, down 0.1 million or 13
percent from last month and down 0.9 million or 56 percent from last year. Area is forecast at
1.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.2 million or 14 percent from last
year. Persistent dryness during the Australian winter crop season has reduced yield potential in
all growing areas. With the exception of Western Australia, post- harvest testing indicates the oil
content will be lower tha n in previous seasons in the producing states of South Australia, New
South Wales, and Victoria. This year Western Australia, least affected by drought, will produce
the largest share of Australian canola, with approximately 0.3 million tons.
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| Jan 1 2003 | Australia: 2002/03 Wheat Production Estimate Revised Lower |
Wheat production for 2002/03 is forecast at 10.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 5 percent
from last month and down 14.0 million or 58 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 10.3
million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 2.2 million or 22 percent from last year.
Production is revised further downward due to lower than expected wheat yields especially in
Western Australia. Reported receivals from farmers are below expectations across much of the
country. However, the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Canberra reports that more farmers are
with holding crops from market channels due to the dramatic rise in domestic feed prices. This
practice increases the difficulty in estimating production from receivals data.
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| May 1 2003 | Forecast Australia 2003/04 Wheat Production May Rebound From Drought |
Australia's 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 26.0 million tons, up 16.5 million or 174 percent from last year. It is 1.1 million tons greater than the previous record of 24.9 million estimated in 2000. This large year-to-year percent rise in production is the result of increases in both area and yield. The 2003/04 Australia wheat area forecast is 13.5 million hectares, up 2.5 million or 23 percent from last year. It is 0.5 million hectares greater than the previous record of 13.0 million estimated in 2000/01. This seasons area increase may occur due to improved rainfall, strong economic incentive for growers to recoup losses from the 2002 drought, and the conversion of last seasons pasture into field crops. Droughts impact on pasture combined with high feed grain prices led farmers to sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep. Sheep numbers are currently estimated at a 53-year low (Meat and Livestock Australia, February 2003). The 2003/04 wheat yield forecast is 1.93 tons per hectare. This is 1.06 tons per hectare or 123 percent above last year. This forecast is the same as the 5-year average yield prior to last seasons drought. Soil moisture in most regions is adequate for planting, but some areas in Victoria and South Australia remain dry. These areas need rainfall; however they are also the last to be planted in the Australia grain belt and improved rainfall until late June could be beneficial for timely planting.
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| Jun 1 2003 | Australia: 2003/04 Wheat Production Decreased |
Australia's 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 23.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 12 percent from last month, but up 13.5 million or 142 percent from last year. This forecast is 2.5 million tons or 12 percent above the 5-year average. The current 2003/04 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.0 million hectares, down 1.5 million or 11 percent from last month but up 1.0 million or 9 percent from last year. The area decrease this month reflects poor soil moisture levels for sowing in northern and central New South Wales. The current yield forecast of 1.9 tons per hectare is essentially unchanged from last month but up 1.1 tons per hectare, or 122 percent above last years drought-affected crop. This yield is the same as the 5-year average.
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| Jul 1 2003 | Australia: 2003/04 Cotton Production Forecast Below Average |
Australian cotton production for 2003/04 is estimated at 1.5 million bales, up just slightly at 0.1 million or 7 percent from last years drought-reduced crop. Harvested area is estimated at 220,000 hectares, down slightly from last years level. Recent rainfall events suggest that drought conditions experienced in 2002/03 are slightly improved. However, this past years severe drought has depleted irrigation water supplies and sharply lowered soil moisture levels. Short-term rainfall (April-June) improved moisture conditions in Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW). However, long-term rainfall analysis for the 24-month period July 1, 2001, to June 30, 2003, shows that hydrological drought has depleted subsoil moisture and reservoir levels in these areas, which will constrain cotton production to just slightly above last years level. Water levels in the major reservoirs within the cotton-producing areas of NSW (two-thirds of Australias cotton production) have dropped significantly over the past 2 years. According to
FAS attaché reports and field travel, reservoir levels in the large cotton producing valleys of Gwydir and Namoi are at less than 20 percent of capacity. On the brighter side, water levels in the Maquarie Valley catchments (Windamere Dam, 68 percent) and Lachlan Valley (Lake Cargelligo, 56.2 percent) are doing considerably better. Prospects for the 2003/04 cotton crop (September to November planting) are highly dependent upon the return of normal to above normal rainfall in NSW and QLD during July and August. The strong Australian currency relative to the U.S. dollar does not support cotton area expansion, despite the higher Cotlook A-Index, averaging 55 cents per pound for the August-June period, up nearly 14 cents from last year. During the same period, the Australian dollar strengthened in terms of the U.S. dollar from 1.905 to 1.504. The gain in cotton price has not been enough to offset the rise in the Australian dollar. For more information, contact Rao Achutuni at (202) 690-0140.
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| Sep 1 2003 | Australia: Favorable Rains Since July Boost 2003/04 Wheat and Barley Crops |
Australia's 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 24.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month and up 14.6 million or 156 percent from last years drought-reduced crop. This forecast is 3.2 million tons, or 17 percent above the 5-year average and will be the third largest on record. This large year-to-year production increase is the result of higher area and yield. The current 2003/04 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.17 million or 11 percent from last year. Nearly all negative effects resulting from a delayed start earlier in the season have now been offset by excellent growing conditions and increased yield potential. Rainfall-to-date in nearly all growing areas has been favorable. Many portions of the winter grain belt received normal to above-normal rainfall amounts for the period July 1 to present. The current yield forecast is 2.00 tons per hectare, up 0.1 tons per hectare, or 4 percent above last month, and up 1.13 tons per hectare, or 130 percent above last years drought-reduced crop. Western Australia is forecast to produce a near record wheat crop this season.
Australia's 2003/04 barley production is forecast at 7.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 8 percent from last month and up 3.7 million or 114 percent from last year. This large year-to-year production increase is the result of higher area and yield. The current forecast is 1.1 million tons or 19 percent above the five-year average and will be the second highest output after the 8.4 million ton record set in 2001/02. The dryness early in eastern regions caused planting delays that are now mostly offset by subsequent positive growing conditions. The largest producing states of South Australia and Western Australia have experienced excellent growing conditions throughout the season. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Nov 1 2003 | Australia: 2003/04 Rice Production Increases |
Australia's 2003/04 rice production is forecast at 644,000 tons (milled basis), up 286,000 or 80 percent from last month and up 365,000 or 131 percent from last years drought-reduced crop. Australia rice area is forecast at 100,000 hectares, up 40,000 or 67 percent from last month and up 62,000 or 163 percent from last year. Sowing began in October and will continue through November in the major growing areas of Murrumbidgee and Murray River catchments in southern New South Wales. Sowing conditions are more favorable as a result of beneficial rainfall amounts received during September and October. This has also helped to recharge the local reservoirs critical for irrigated rice. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Dec 1 2004 | Australia: Barley Crop Tips Record in 2003/04 |
Australia's 2003/04 barley production is forecast at 8.0 million tons up 1.0 million or 14 percent from last month and up 4.3 million or 116 percent from last year. This large year-to-year production increase is the result of increased area and yield. The sharp rebound in 2003/04 production is due to the significantly improved growing conditions as compared to last seasons drought devastated winter-crop harvest. The current 2003/04 Australia barley area forecast is 4.0 million hectares up 0.5 million or 14 percent from last month and up 0.3 million or 8 percent from last year. Increases in planted area for barley follow the same trends observed for wheat. The yield forecast of 2.0 tons per hectare is an average barley yield prior to last years 100-year drought. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Dec 1 2004 | Australia: Near Record Wheat Crop for 2003/04 |
Australia 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 24.5 million tons up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 14.4 million or 144 percent from last year. Due to a recent survey from the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS), last seasons drought-influenced 2002/03 wheat crop is revised up by 673,000 tons, totaling 10.1 million tons. The sharp rebound in 2003/04 production is due to improved growing conditions as compared to last seasons drought devastated winter-crop harvest. Australia wheat area for 2003/04 is forecast at 12.5 million hectares up 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month and up 1.5 million or 14 percent from last year. This seasons area increase is a result of an overwhelming grower incentive to recoup financial losses incurred during the 2002 drought, and the conversion of pasture into grain. The 2002 winter and summer drought severely reduced pasture growth that combined with high feed grain prices throughout the country and led many producers to sell off large numbers of cattle and sheep. Australia sheep numbers are at a 50-year low. The yield forecast of 1.96 tons per hectare is an average wheat yield prior to last years 100-year drought. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Mar 1 2004 | Australia: Barley Production Increased |
Australia's 2003/04 barley production is forecast at 8.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month and up 4.8 million or 130 percent from last year. This forecast exceeds the previous record established in the 2001/02 season of 8.5 million tons. This large year-to-year production rise is the result of higher area and yield. The 2003/04 barley area is forecast at 4.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.22 million hectares or 6 percent from last year. The area forecast of 4.0 million hectares is the largest harvested area in the Australian barley historical series. The previous record area was 3.8 million hectares harvested in the 2002/03 season. Growing conditions in nearly all barley producing areas were favorable. The current yield forecast of 2.13 tons per hectare establishes a new national record, up 0.13 tons per hectare or 7 percent above last month and up 1.15 tons per hectare or 116 percent above last years drought-reduced crop. The largest producing states, South Australia and Western Australia, experienced excellent growing conditions throughout the season. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Mar 1 2004 | Australia: Wheat Production Increased to a New Record |
Australia's 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 25.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 14.9 million or 149 percent from last year. This forecast exceeds the previous record established in the 1999/2000 season of 24.8 million tons. This large year-to-year production rise is the result of higher area and yield. The current 2003/04 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.45 million or 13 percent from last year. Nearly all negative effects resulting from a delayed start earlier in the season have been offset by beneficial growing conditions sustaining yield potential. Rainfall to-date in nearly all growing areas has been favorable. Many portions of the winter grain belt received normal to above-normal rainfall amounts for the period July 1 through September flowering, and into grain fill. The current yield forecast is 2.0 tons per hectare, up 0.04 tons per hectare, or 2 percent above last month and up 1.09 tons per hectare, or 119 percent above last years drought-reduced crop. Western Australia experienced excellent growing conditions and is forecast to produce a record 10.6-million-ton wheat crop. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Nov 1 2004 | Australia: Wheat Production Lower |
Australia's 2004/05 wheat production is forecast at 22.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 2.4 million from last year. The 2004/05 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.2 million hectares, down 0.3 million from last month, but up 0.2 million from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.84 tons per hectare, which is slightly below the average (excluding the 2002 seasons 100-year drought), down 2 percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year.
Australias main wheat-producing regions have received below-normal rainfall this season. Although favorable rains occurred during August, the positive conditions were short lived with October weather being mostly unfavorable. Given the lack of sub-soil moisture for several months, this seasons crop needed favorable spring rains that failed to materialize. Early November rains in the southern growing areas are expected to partially offset the negative consequences of the dry spring months of September and October in the wheat areas. Wheat crops in parts of Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales experienced record temperatures accompanied by high winds during the second week of October. Parts of Australia, especially New South Wales, have remained in drought since the 100-year drought in 2002. While Western Australia has been spared the extreme conditions, the lack of rain since mid-September has reduced yield potential. Wheat crops in the driest areas are being cut for hay. Wheat harvest is now winding down in Queensland but is well underway in northern parts of New South Wales and Western Australia. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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| Dec 1 2004 | Australia: Drought Takes Its Toll on Wheat Crop |
Australia's 2004/05 wheat production is forecast at 21.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 3.4 million from last year. The 2004/05 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.2 million from last year. The yield forecast of 1.76 tons per hectare is below last year and the five-year average. Australias main wheat-producing regions have received below-normal rainfall this season. Although favorable rains occurred during August, the positive conditions were short lived with October weather being mostly unfavorable. Given the lack of sub-soil moisture for several months, this seasons crop needed favorable spring rains that failed to materialize. The early-November rains in the southern growing areas only partially offset the negative consequences of an extended dry spring in the wheat areas. Wheat crops in parts of Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales experienced record high temperatures accompanied by high winds in October. Parts of Australia, especially New South Wales, have remained in a drought pattern since the drought of 2002. While Western Australia has been spared the extreme conditions, the lack of rain since mid-September has reduced yield potential. Wheat crops in the driest areas are being cut for hay. Wheat harvest is complete in Queensland and is in full swing in the other states. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
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