| Mar 8 2024 | Brazil Corn: Safrinha Crop Sowing Advances Rapidly and Production Unchanged |
Brazil corn production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is estimated at 124.0 million metric tons
(mmt), unchanged from last month, and lower by 13.0 mmt (9 percent) from last year’s record
crop. Harvested area for all three corn crops is estimated unchanged from last month at 21.9 million
hectares (mha), and lower by 0.5 mha (2 percent) from last year’s record. Yield is estimated at
5.66 tons per hectare, 7 percent below the record MY 2022/23 yield, and 2 percent above the 10-
year trend yield. Planted area for the second-season crop was reduced drastically this season by
market pressures to 15.9 mha (about 7.6 percent lower than last year) according to the Companhia
Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB). This is the largest area reduction observed for the Brazilian
safrinha crop. The state with the largest area reduction is the highest safrinha producer, Mato
Grosso, where area was reduced by 9 percent or 656,000 hectares. (For
more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Mar 8 2024 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Further Reduced Based on Harvest Results |
Soybean production in Brazil for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is estimated at 155.0 million
metric tons (mmt), lower by 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and lower by 7.0 mmt (4 percent)
from last season’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 45.9 million hectares (mha),
unchanged from last month, and up 1.3 mha (3 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated below
the 10-year trend at 3.38 tons per hectare (t/ha), down 1 percent from last month’s yield, and down
7 percent from last year’s record yield. Current harvest results led to the lower production this
month. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Feb 8 2024 | Brazil Corn: Further Reduction to Area Lowers Production |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 124.0 million metric
tons (mmt), down 3.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and lower by 13.0 mmt (9 percent) from
last year’s record crop. Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, was revised down to 21.9
million hectares (mha), lower by 0.5 mha (2 percent) from last month, and lower by 0.5 mha (2
percent) from last year’s record. Yield essentially unchanged to 5.66 tons per hectare, 7 percent
below the record MY 2022/23 yield, and 2 percent above the 10-year trend yield. Low prices are
acting as a disincentive to corn planting in MY 2023/24. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov)
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| Feb 8 2024 | Brazil Soybeans: Early Harvest Results Reduce Production |
Soybean production in Brazil for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is estimated at 156.0 million
metric tons (mmt), lower by 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and lower by 6.0 mmt (4 percent)
from last season’s record crop. Harvested area for MY 2023/24 is estimated at a record 45.9
million hectares (mha), larger from last month by less than 1 percent, and up 1.3 mha (3 percent)
from last year. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jan 12 2024 | Brazil Corn: Lower Second Crop Area Expectations Reduce Production for MY 2023/24 |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 127.0 million metric
tons (mmt), down 2.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and lower by 10.0 mmt (7 percent) from
last year’s record crop. Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, was revised down to 22.4
million hectares (mha), lower by 0.5 mha (2 percent) from last month, and unchanged from last
year’s record area. Yield increased slightly to 5.67 tons per hectare, less than 1 percent higher from
last month, 7 percent below the record MY 2022/23 yield, and 2 percent above the 10-year trend
yield. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov)
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| Jan 12 2024 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Lowered Due to Prolonged Drought |
Soybean production in Brazil for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is estimated at 157.0 million
metric tons (mmt), lower by 4.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and lower by 3.0 mmt (2 percent)
from last season’s record crop. Harvested area for MY 2023/24 is estimated at a record 45.6
million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, and up 1.3 mha (3 percent) from last year.
Yield is estimated below the 10-year trend at 3.44 tons per hectare (t/ha), down 2 percent from last
month’s 3.53 t/ha yield, and down 5 percent from last year’s record yield. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Dec 8 2023 | Brazil Wheat: Excessive Late Season Rainfall Further Reduces MY 2023/24 Production |
USDA estimates Brazil wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 at 8.4 million metric
tons (mmt), down 1.0 mmt (11 percent from last month), and down 21 percent from MY 2022/23.
Harvested area increased to 3.47 million hectares (mha), higher by 2 percent from last month and
up 12 percent from last year. Yield is reduced to 2.42 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), down 12
percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov)
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| Dec 8 2023 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Down 1 Percent on Lower Yield Prospects in the Center-West and Northeastern States |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 remains at a record 161.0 million
metric tons (mmt), lower by 2 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and larger by 1.0 mmt (1 percent)
from last season’s record crop. For the MY 2022/23 crop, production was raised to 160.0 mmt
based on use data to date. The harvested area for MY 2023/24 is estimated at a record 45.6 million
hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, and up 1.3 mha (3 percent) from last year. Yield is
estimated below the 10-year trend at 3.53 tons per hectare (t/ha), down 1 percent from last month,
and down 2 percent from last year’s record yield. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Nov 9 2023 | Brazil Wheat: Heavy Precipitation Further Reduces Production |
USDA estimates Brazil wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 at 9.4 million metric
tons (mmt), down 4 percent from last month and down 6 percent from the initial forecast.
Harvested area remains at 3.4 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 10
percent from last year. Yield is reduced to 2.76 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), down 4 percent from
last month and down 19 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Oct 12 2023 | Brazil Cotton: MY 2023/24 Production Increased on Late Harvest Results & Series Revision |
This month, a series revision was made to Brazil cotton. USDA’s previous marketing year (MY) 2000/01 to MY 2022/23 area and production estimates shift to one year later and become the current MY 2001/02 to MY 2023/24 estimates. The previous MY 2000/01 estimates for area and production are replaced by the average of the MY 1999/00 and new MY 2001/02 estimates with the new yield derived from the area and production revision. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Oct 12 2023 | Brazil Wheat: Record Rainfall Reduces Wheat Production |
Brazil wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is estimated at 9.8 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.5 mmt or 5 percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 10 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.88 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), down 5 percent from last month and down 16 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Sep 12 2023 | Brazil Corn: Center-West Yields Push Record Production Higher for MY 2022/23 |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 137.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 2.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and larger than the MY 2021/22 crop
by 21.0 mmt (18 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, was revised down to 22.4
million hectares (mha), lower by 0.1 mha (less than 1 percent) from last month, and higher by 0.6
mha (3 percent) from MY 2021/22. Yield increased to a record of 6.12 tons per hectare, 2 percent
higher than last month, 15 percent above the previous year’s crop, and 6 percent above the previous
record yield set in MY 2018/19. (For more information, please
contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Aug 11 2023 | Brazil Cotton: MY 2022/23 Production Increased on Initial Harvest Results |
Brazil’s marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton production is raised to 13.9 million 480-pound bales, larger by 0.2 million bales (1 percent) from last month, and up by 2.2 million bales (19 percent) from MY 2021/22. Harvested cotton area is also raised to 1.66 million hectares (mha), up 1 percent from last month, and up 4 percent from MY 2021/22. Area continued to show recovery to prepandemic levels. Cotton yield is estimated at a record 1,823 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), less than 1 percent higher than last month, and 14 percent above the previous season. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Aug 11 2023 | Brazil Rice: Production Raised for MY 2022/23 |
USDA estimates Brazil rice production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 7.0 million metric tons (mmt) (milled basis), up 3 percent from last month, and down 5 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.47 million hectares (mha), down 9 percent from MY 2021/22. Yield is estimated at 7.01 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 3 percent from last month and 7 percent above the 5-year average. While rice acreage continues to decline in Brazil, yields continue to increase because of better varieties and management practices. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Aug 11 2023 | Brazil Corn: Harvest Results Raise Production for MY 2022/23 |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 135.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and larger than the MY 2021/22 crop by 19.0 mmt (16 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, remains at 22.5 million hectares (mha), up 0.7 mha (3 percent) from MY 2021/22. Yield is estimated at a record of 6.00 tons per hectare, 2 percent higher than last month, 13 percent above the previous year’s crop, and 16 percent above the 5-year average. This yield is 4 percent above the previous record set in MY 2018/19 of 5.77 t/ha. Harvest for the first-season crop is almost complete with production at 27.4 mmt. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jul 12 2023 | Brazil Corn: Favorable Conditions Boost Yield Prospects for MY 2022/23 |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 133.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and larger than the MY 2021/22 crop
by 17.0 mmt (15 percent). Total harvested area (for all three corn crops) is reduced from last month
to 22.5 million hectares (mha), down 0.2 mha (1 percent) from last month, and up 0.7 mha (3
percent) from MY 2021/22. Yield is estimated at a record of 5.91 tons per hectare, 2 percent higher
than last month and 11 percent above the previous year’s crop. According to National Supply
Company (CONAB) data, harvest for the first-season crop is nearly finished at 95 percent complete
with production standing at 27.0 mmt. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jun 9 2023 | Brazil Soybeans: Larger Area Boosts Production for MY 2022/23 |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a 156.0 million metric
tons (mmt), higher by 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and higher by 25.5 mmt (20 percent)
from MY 2021/22. Harvested area is estimated at a 43.9 million hectares (mha), 0.2 mha (less than
1 percent) higher from last month and up 2.3 mha (6 percent) from the previous season. The yield
remains unchanged from last month at 3.55 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 13 percent from the previous
year. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jun 9 2023 | Brazil Corn: Bumper Crop Revised Upward for MY 2022/23 |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 132.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 2.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and larger than the MY 2021/22 crop
by 16.0 mmt (14 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is unchanged from last
month at 22.7 million hectares (mha), up 0.9 mha (4 percent) from the previous year. Yield is
estimated at a record of 5.81 tons per hectare, 2 percent higher than last month and 9 percent above
the previous year’s crop. (For more
information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| May 12 2023 | Brazil Soybeans: MY 2022/23 Bumper Crop Pushes Upwards |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at 155.0 million metric
tons (mmt), higher by 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and higher by 24.5 mmt (19 percent)
from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 43.7 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last
month and up 2.1 mha (5 percent) from last season. Yield is estimated at 3.55 tons per hectare
(t/ha), about 1 percent above last month and up 13 percent from last year. USDA forecasts the MY
2023/24 soybean production at a record 163.0 mmt; planting for this crop will begin in October
2023. (For
more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| May 12 2023 | Brazil Corn: Record MY 2022/23 Production Anticipated |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 130.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 5.0 mmt (4 percent) from last month, and larger than last year’s crop by 14.0
mmt (12 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at 22.7 million
hectares (mha), up 0.9 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.73 tons per hectare,
8 percent above last year’s crop, and just under the record yield of 5.77 t/ha obtained in MY
2018/19. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Apr 11 2023 | Brazil Cotton: Estimated Output for MY 2022/23 Reduced |
Brazil’s marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton production is forecast at 13.0 million 480-pound
bales, lower by 0.3 million bales (2 percent) from last month, and up by 1.3 million bales (11
percent) from last year. Harvested cotton area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares (mha),
unchanged from last month, and up 2 percent from last year. Cotton yield is forecast at 1,736
kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), roughly 2 percent lower than last month, but 9 percent above the
previous year. (For more information,
please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Apr 11 2023 | Brazil Soybeans: Area and Production Rise to New Records |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 154.0 million
metric tons (mmt), higher by 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and higher by 24.0 mmt (18
percent) from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 43.7 million hectares (mha), up 0.3
mha (1 percent) from last month and up 2.1 mha (5 percent) from last season. Yield is estimated
at 3.52 tons per hectare (t/ha), slightly below last month and up 12 percent from last year. A
revision was made to MY 2021/22 with area raised to 41.6 mha, production to 130.5 mmt with a
yield of 3.14 t/ha. For MY 2022/23, soybean production in the large center-west states have
compensated for problems in Rio Grande do Sul. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Apr 11 2023 | Brazil Corn: No Change to Production for MY22/23 as Planting Concludes |
Brazil corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 125.0 million
metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, and larger than last year’s crop by 9.0 mmt (8
percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record 22.7 million hectares
(mha), up 0.9 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.51 tons per hectare, 3 percent
above last year’s crop, and 6 percent above the 5-year average yield. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Mar 8 2023 | Brazil Wheat: Record Production Surpasses 10 Million Tons in MY 2022/23 |
Brazil wheat production for marketing year 2022/23 is estimated at a record 10.4 million metric
tons (mmt), 5 percent higher than last month, and higher by 2.7 mmt (35 percent) from last season’s
record crop. Harvested area is estimated at 3.1 million hectares (mha), up 0.4 mha (13 percent)
from last season’s area and the largest wheat area in 3 decades. Yield is estimated at a record 3.37
tons per hectare (t/ha), 20 percent higher than last season. Brazil’s wheat has been harvested. The
month-to-month yield change is based on harvest data from official sources.(For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Mar 8 2023 | Brazil Corn: Planting Delayed in Several Safrinha Producing States; Production Unchanged |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at a record 125.0 million
metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, and larger than last year’s crop by 9.0 mmt (8
percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record 22.7 million hectares
(mha), up 1 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.51 tons per hectare, 3 percent
above last year’s crop, and 6 percent above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Feb 8 2023 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Unchanged at a Record 153 Million Tons |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year 2022/23 is estimated at a record 153.0 million metric
tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, and higher by 24 mmt (18 percent) from last season’s
drought-affected crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 43.4 million hectares (mha), up 1.9
mha (5 percent) from last season’s record area. Yield is estimated at 3.53 tons per hectare (t/ha),
13 percent higher than last season. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jan 12 2023 | Brazil Corn: First-Crop Corn Affected by Dryness; Production Decreased by 1 Percent |
USDA estimates Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 125.0 million
metric tons (mmt), down 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, but up from last year’s crop by 9.0
mmt (8 percent). Total harvested area is estimated at a record 22.7 million hectares (mha),
unchanged from last month, and up 0.9 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.51
tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month, but 3 percent higher than last year’s yield and 6
percent above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@usda.gov.)
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| Oct 12 2022 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production, 20 Percent Larger than Last Year |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at a record 152.0 million
metric tons (mmt), raised higher by 3.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and higher by 25.0 mmt
(20 percent) from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a record 42.9 million hectares (mha), up
0.9 mha (2 percent) from last month and up 1.4 mha (3 percent) from last season. Yield is forecast
at close to the 10-year trend yield at 3.54 tons per hectare (t/ha), slightly below last month and 16
percent greater than last season. This would be the highest yield on record, with the prior record
at 3.53 t/ha reached in MY 2020/21. (For more
information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jun 10 2022 | Brazil Cotton: Drought Reduces MY 2021/22 Production |
Brazil’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 cotton production is estimated at 12.7 million 480-pound
bales, lower by 0.5 million bales (4 percent) from last month, and up by 1.9 million bales (17
percent) from MY 2020/21. Harvested area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares (mha), unchanged
from last month, and 17 percent greater than last season. Yield is estimated at 1,728 kilograms per
hectare (kg/ha), 4 percent lower than last month, and slightly below the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jun 10 2022 | Brazil Corn: MY 2021/22 Safrinha Production Unchanged |
USDA estimates Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at 116.0 million
metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, and larger than the previous year’s crop (MY
2020/21) by 29.0 mmt (33 percent). Total harvested area is estimated at 21.8 million hectares
(mha), unchanged from last month, and up 1.9 mha (10 percent) from the previous year. Yield
remains at 5.32 tons per hectare, which is 22 percent above the previous year’s crop, and 3 percent
above the 5-year average. (For more information,
please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| May 12 2022 | Brazil Corn: MY 2021/22 Safrinha Production Unchanged, But Yield Reduced Amid Drought Conditions in April |
USDA estimates Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at 116.0 million
metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, and larger than the MY 2020/21 crop by 29.0 mmt
(33 percent). Total harvested area for all three corn crops in MY 2020/21 is estimated at 21.8
million hectares (mha), up 0.7 mha (3 percent) from last month, and up 1.9 mha (10 percent) from
MY 2020/21. Yield is estimated at 5.32 tons per hectare, 3 percent lower than last month, 22
percent above last year’s diminished crop, and 3 percent above the 5-year average. The national
corn yield was reduced this month due to negligible rainfall amounts in the center-west states over
the last 2 to 4 weeks. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Apr 8 2022 | Brazil Rice: Production Reduced due to Drought in Rio Grande do Sul |
USDA estimates Brazil rice production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at 7.1 million metric
tons (mmt) (milled-basis), down 2 percent from last month, and 11 percent from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at 1.65 million hectares (mha), down 1 percent from last month, and 2
percent from last season. Yield is estimated at 6.36 tons per hectare (t/ha), less than 1 percent from
last month and 9 percent below last year’s record yield. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Apr 8 2022 | Brazil Corn: Record Safrinha Area and Production Anticipated |
USDA estimates Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at a record 116.0
million metric tons (mmt), larger by 2.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and larger than last
year’s crop by 29.0 mmt (33 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated
at a record 21.1 million hectares (mha), up 0.3 mha (1 percent) from last month, and up 1.2 mha
(6 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.50 tons per hectare, 26 percent above last year’s
mediocre crop, and 5 percent above the 5-year average. Yield expectations are essentially
unchanged month-to-month. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Apr 8 2022 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Lowered Further |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is estimated at 125.0 million metric
tons (mmt), down 2.0 mmt (2 percent) from last month, and lower by 14.5 mmt (10 percent) from
last season’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 40.8 million hectares (mha), up
0.2 mha (<1 percent) from last month and up 1.6 mha (4 percent) from last season. Yield is
estimated at 3.06 tons per hectare (t/ha), 2 percent below last month and 14 percent lower than last
season. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Mar 9 2022 | Brazil Soybeans: Persistent Drought Further Reduces Production |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year 2021/22 is estimated at 127.0 million metric tons
(mmt), down 7.0 mmt (5 percent) from last month, and lower by 11.0 mmt (8 percent) from last
season’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 40.6 million hectares (mha), up 0.2
mha (<1 percent) from last month and up 1.7 mha (4 percent) from last season. Yield is estimated
at 3.13 tons per hectare (t/ha), 6 percent below last month and 12 percent lower than last season.
The production decrease reflects continuing below-average conditions and extreme drought in the
southern areas during sensitive crop stages. (For more
information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Mar 9 2022 | Brazil Corn: Sowing Advances for Second Crop and Production Unchanged |
Total Brazil corn production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is estimated at a record 114.0
million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month, and larger than last year’s crop by 27.0
mmt (31 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record 20.8 million
hectares (mha), up 0.9 mha (5 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.48 tons per hectare,
25 percent above last year’s disappointing crop, and 5 percent above the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Feb 9 2022 | Brazil Corn: Production Lowered Due to Reduced Yields for the First Crop |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year 2021/22 is estimated at a record 114.0 million
metric tons (mmt), lower by 1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, but larger than last year’s crop
by 27.0 mmt (31 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record
20.8 million hectares (mha), up 0.9 mha (5 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.48 tons
per hectare (t/ha), about 1 percent lower than last month, but 25 percent above last year’s dismal
crop, and 5 percent above the 5-year average. This month’s reduction reflects the yield losses for
the first crop in the southern states of Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Feb 9 2022 | Brazil Soybeans: Drought Reduces Production Estimate |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year 2021/22 is estimated at 134.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 5.0 mmt (4 percent) from last month, and lower by 4.0 mmt (3 percent) from last season’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 40.4 million hectares (mha), up 1.5 mha (4 percent) from last season’s record area. Yield is estimated at 3.32 tons per hectare (t/ha), 4 percent below last month and 7 percent lower than last season. The decline this month reflects the continuing poor vegetation status of crops and early harvest results in southern Brazil. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jan 12 2022 | Brazil Corn: Below Average Rainfall Lowers Production |
Brazil total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is estimated at 115.0 million metric
tons (mmt), lower by 3 mmt (3 percent) from last month, but larger than last year’s crop by 28
mmt (32 percent). Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record 20.8 million
hectares (mha), up 0.9 mha (5 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.53 tons per hectare
(t/ha), about 3 percent lower than last month, but 26 percent above last year’s dismal crop, and
below the 10-year trend of 5.62 t/ha. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jan 12 2022 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Lowered Due to Drought in the Southern States |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year 2021/22 is estimated at a record 139.0 million metric
tons (mmt), down 5.0 mmt (3 percent) from last month, but up 1 mmt (1 percent) from last season’s
record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 40.4 million hectares (mha), up 1.5 mha (4
percent) from last season’s record area. Yield is estimated at 3.44 tons per hectare (t/ha), 3 percent
below last month and last season. The decrease is attributed to historic dry conditions during
November and December during critical reproductive crop stages in the southern state of Paraná. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Nov 9 2021 | Brazil Cotton: Recovery of Cotton Production Driven by Larger Area |
Brazil’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound
bales, larger by 0.7 million bales (6 percent) from last month, and up 2.4 million bales (22 percent)
from the MY 2020/21 production. Harvested cotton area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares (mha),
larger by 0.1 mha (7 percent) from last month, and 17 percent greater than last season. Cotton yield
is forecast at 1,796 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), 5 percent above the 5-year average of 1,716
kg/ha. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Aug 12 2021 | Brazil Wheat: Record Production Estimated for MY 2021/22 Crop |
USDA estimates wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 in Brazil at a record 7.7
million metric tons (mmt), up 12 percent from last month, and higher by 23 percent from the
previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.7 million hectares (mha), 7 percent larger than last
month, and up 0.4 mha (15 percent) from the previous year. Yield is estimated at 2.85 tons per
hectare (t/ha), about 5 percent higher than last month and 7 percent above last year. This would be
the second highest yield for Brazil wheat with the previous record at 3.17 t/ha achieved in MY
2016/17. (For more
information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Jul 12 2021 | Brazil Cotton: MY 2020/21 Production Revised Down on Lower Yield Prospects |
Brazil’s marketing year (MY) 2020/21 cotton production is estimated at 10.8 million 480-pound
bales, lower by 0.5 million bales (4 percent) from last month, and down 3.1 million bales (22
percent) from the 2019/20 record production. Harvested cotton area is estimated at 1.4 million
hectares (mha), lower by 0.03 mha (2 percent) from last month, and 18 percent below last season.
Cotton yield is estimated at 1,708 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), 4 percent above the 5-year
average of 1,642 kg/ha. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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|
| Jul 12 2021 | Brazil Corn: Drought Results in Further Cuts to Production for MY2020/21 Crop |
USDA estimates total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2020/21 in Brazil at 93.0 million
metric tons (mmt), lower by 6 percent from last month, and lower by 9 percent from the previous
year’s record crop. Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record 19.9
million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, and up 1.4 mha (7 percent) from the previous
year’s record area of 18.5 mha. Yield is estimated at 4.68 tons per hectare (t/ha), about 6 percent
lower than last month and 15 percent below last year’s crop. This yield is 10 percent lower than
the 5-year average of 5.20 t/ha because of dry weather during most of the second crop corn season. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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|
| Jun 10 2021 | Brazil Cotton: Lower MY 2020/21 Production Estimated |
Brazil’s marketing year (MY) 2020/21 cotton production is estimated at 11.3 million 480-pound
bales, lower by 0.25 million bales (2 percent) from last month, and down 2.5 million bales (18
percent) from the 2019/20 record production. Harvested cotton area is estimated at 1.4 million
hectares (mha), lower by 0.05 mha (3 percent) from last month, and 16 percent below last season.
The two largest cotton producing states, Mato Grosso and Bahia, are reporting roughly 17 percent
and 15 percent declines in sown area, respectively, for the 2020/21 season. Cotton yield is estimated at 1,750 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), 7 percent above the 5-year average of 1,642
kg/ha. (For more
information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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|
| Jun 10 2021 | Brazil Soybeans: Record MY 2020/21 Production Revised Upward |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2020/21 is estimated at a record 137.0 million
metric tons (mmt), up 1.0 mmt (less than 1 percent) from last month and 8.5 mmt (7 percent) from
the previous season’s record crop of 128.5 mmt. The harvested area is expected to be a record 38.6
million hectares (mha), up 1.7 mha (5 percent) from the previous season’s record. Yield is
estimated at a record of 3.55 tons per hectare (t/ha), up almost 1 percent from last month, 2 percent
above the previous season, and slightly above the 10-year trend (3.53 t/ha). (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jun 10 2021 | Brazil Corn: Continued Drought Lowers Production by 3 Percent for MY2020/21 Crop |
USDA estimates total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2020/21 in Brazil at 98.5 million
metric tons (mmt), lower by 3 percent from last month, and lower by the same amount from the
previous year’s record crop. Total harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record
19.9 million hectares (mha), up 1 percent from last month, and up 1.4 mha (8 percent) from the
previous year’s record area of 18.5 mha. Yield is estimated at 4.96 tons per hectare (t/ha), about 4
percent lower than last month and 10 percent below last year’s crop. This yield is 5 percent lower
than the 5-year average of 5.20 t/ha due to adverse weather in second crop corn production areas. Harvest is almost complete for the first-season corn at 84 percent with a small portion remaining
in the northeastern states and Rio Grande do Sul. Production for this crop is estimated at 24.7 mmt
on an area of 4.3 mha according to Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB, an agency
in the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture), up 1 mmt from last year’s first-season output, with yield
up 1 percent at 6.15 t/ha. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| May 12 2021 | Brazil Soybeans: Unchanged Record MY 2020/21 Production |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year (MY) 2020/21 is forecast at a record 136.0 million metric
tons (mmt), up 7.5 mmt (6 percent) from the MY 2019/20 revised record crop of 128.5 mmt. The
harvested area is forecast at a record 38.6 million hectares (mha), up 1.7 mha (5 percent) from the MY
2019/20 record. Yield is forecast at a record of 3.52 tons per hectare (t/ha), 1 percent above MY 2019/20
and close to the 10-year trend. (For more information, please
contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| May 12 2021 | Brazil Corn: Drought in South-Central Regions Lowers MY 2020/21 Production by 6 Percent |
USDA estimates total corn production for marketing year (MY) 2020/21 in Brazil at a record 102.0
million metric tons (mmt), lower by 6 percent from last month, and equal to last year’s record crop. Total
harvested area, for all three corn crops, is estimated at a record 19.7 million hectares (mha), up 1.2 mha
(6 percent) from last year’s record area of 18.5 mha. Yield is estimated at 5.18 tons per hectare (t/ha),
about 6 percent lower than last month’s and last year’s crop, 10 percent lower than the previous record
of 5.77 t/ha in 2018/19, and similar to the 5-year average of 5.20 t/ha. (For more information,
please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Apr 9 2021 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production Revised Higher |
Brazil soybean production for marketing year 2020/21 is forecast at a record 136.0 million metric
tons (mmt), up 2.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month and 7.5 mmt (6 percent) from last season’s
revised record crop of 128.5 mmt. The harvested area is forecast at a record 38.6 million hectares
(mha), up 1.7 mha (5 percent) from last season’s record. Yield is forecast at a record 3.52 tons per
hectare, 1 percent above last season and close to the 10-year trend. Although Brazil had weatherrelated delays in sowing and harvesting, record output is expected for a second consecutive year. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Mar 9 2021 | Brazil Cotton: Lower Production Forecast |
Brazil’s 2020/21 cotton production is forecast at 11.5 million 480-pound bales, lower by 0.5
million bales (4 percent) from last month, and down 2.3 million bales (17 percent) from last year’s
record production. Harvested cotton area is forecast at 1.45 million hectares (mha), lower by 0.1
mha (6 percent) from last month, and 13 percent below last year. The two largest cotton producing
states, Mato Grosso and Bahia, are reporting roughly 10 percent and 15 percent declines in sown
area, respectively, for the 2020/21 season. Cotton yield is forecast at 1,727 kilograms per hectare
(kg/ha), 5 percent above the 5-year average of 1,642 kg/ha. The COVID-19 pandemic dampened
prices for much of 2020, and delayed plantings added further risk to cotton compared with
alternative crops. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 9 2021 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production Despite Further Harvest Delays |
Brazil soybean production for 2020/21 is forecast at a record 134.0 million metric tons (mmt), up
1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month and 5.5 mmt (4 percent) from last season’s revised record
crop of 128.5 mmt. The harvested area is forecast at a record 38.6 million hectares (mha), up 1.7
mha (5 percent) from last season’s record. Yield is forecast below the 10-year trend at 3.47 tons
per hectare (t/ha) and slightly below last season. Soybean area expansion continues for the
fourteenth straight year. (For more information, please
contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 9 2021 | Brazil Corn: Production Unchanged but Increasing Risks to Safrinha Corn |
USDA estimates total corn production in Brazil at a record 109.0 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged from last month, but up 7.0 mmt (7 percent) from last year’s record. Total harvested
area, for all three corn crops, is forecast at a record 19.7 million hectares (mha), up 1.2 mha (6
percent) from last year’s record area of 18.5 mha. Yield is forecast at 5.53 tons per hectare (t/ha),
less than 1 percent higher than last year’s crop, but 4 percent lower than the previous record of
5.77 t/ha in 2018/19, and up 6 percent from the 5-year average of 5.20 t/ha.
(For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
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| Feb 9 2021 | Brazil Soybeans: Slow Start of Season Followed by Mid-Season Recovery |
Brazil soybean production for 2020/21 is forecast at a record 133.0 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged this month and larger by 7.0 mmt (6 percent) from last season’s record crop of 126.0
mmt. The harvested area is forecast at a record 38.6 million hectares (mha), up 1.7 mha (5 percent)
from last season’s record. Yield is forecast slightly below the 10-year trend at 3.45 tons per hectare,
up 1 percent from last year. Soybean area expansion continues for the fourteenth straight year,
with the most significant gains forecast for the states of Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Feb 9 2021 | Brazil Cotton: Production Lower Than Last Year |
Brazil’s 2020/21 cotton production is forecast at 12 million 480-pound bales, unchanged from last
month, but down 1.8 million bales (13 percent) from last year’s record production. Harvested
cotton area is forecast at 1.6 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month, but 7 percent
below last year. The two largest cotton producing states, Mato Grosso and Bahia, are reporting a
5 percent and 15 percent decline in sown area, respectively, for the 2020/21 season. Cotton yield
is forecast at 1,686 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), slightly above the 5-year average, but below the
10-year trend yield. The COVID-19 pandemic dampened prices for much of 2020 resulting in
producers switching to more profitable crops this season. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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|
| Jan 12 2021 | Brazil Corn: First Corn Crop Affected by Dry Weather |
USDA forecasts total corn production in Brazil at a record 109.0 million metric tons (mmt), down
1 mmt (1 percent) from last month, but up 7.0 mmt (7 percent) from last year’s record. Total
harvested area, for both the first-season and second-season corn crops, is forecast at a record 19.5
million hectares (mha), up 1.0 mha (5 percent) from last year’s record area of 18.5 mha. Yield is
forecast at 5.59 tons per hectare (t/ha), about 1 percent higher than last year’s crop. The forecasted
yield is 3 percent lower than the previous record of 5.77 t/ha in 2018/19, but up 7 percent from the
5-year average of 5.20 t/ha. (For more information, please contact
Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 10 2020 | Brazil Corn: Crop Stress in the South but Total Corn Production Unchanged |
USDA estimates total corn production in Brazil at a record 110.0 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged from last month but up 8.0 mmt (8 percent) from last year’s record. Total harvested
area, for both the first-season and second-season corn crops, is estimated at a record 19.5 million
hectares (mha), up 1.0 mha (5 percent) from last year’s record area of 18.5 mha. Yield is forecast
at 5.64 tons per hectare (t/ha), 2 percent higher than last year’s crop, but 2 percent lower than the
previous record of 5.77 t/ha in 2018/19 and up 8 percent from the 5-year average of 5.20 t/ha. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Nov 10 2020 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Forecast Unchanged Despite Slow Start to Planting |
Brazil soybean production for 2020/21 is forecast at a record 133.0 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged despite the delay in planting and larger by 7.0 mmt (6 percent) from last season’s record
crop of 126.0 mmt. The harvested area is forecast at a record 38.6 million hectares (mha), up 1.7
mha (5 percent) from last season’s record. Yield is forecast slightly below the 10-year trend at 3.45
tons per hectare (t/ha), up 1 percent from last year. This would be the second highest yield on
record, with the prior record at 3.51 t/ha reached in 2017/18. (For more information, please
contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov).
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| Sep 11 2020 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Forecast Increased 6 Percent Compared to Last Season |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production at a record 133.0 million metric tons (mmt),
up 7.0 mmt (6 percent) from last season’s record crop of 126.0 mmt. The harvested area is forecast
at a record 38.6 million hectares (mha), up 1.7 mha (5 percent) from last season’s record. Yield is
forecast slightly below the 10-year trend at 3.45 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 1 percent from last year.
This would be the second highest yield on record, with the prior record at 3.47 t/ha reached in
2017/18. (For more
information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| Sep 11 2020 | Brazil Corn: Record Corn Crop Forecast |
Total corn production in Brazil is forecast at a record 110.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 8.0 mmt
(8 percent) from last year’s record. USDA forecasts a record corn area in Brazil for the upcoming
2020/21 summer and winter corn crops. Total harvested area is forecast at 19.5 million hectares
(mha), up 1.0 mha (5 percent) from last year’s record area of 18.5 mha. Favorable market prices
have driven the increase in planted area this season. Yield is forecast at 5.64 tons per hectare (t/ha),
2 percent higher than last year’s crop, but 2 percent lower than the previous record of 5.77 t/ha in
2018. (For more information, please contact Sunita.YadavPauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Aug 12 2020 | Brazil Wheat: Record Crop Forecast |
Brazil’s 2020/21 wheat production is forecast at a record 6.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.1
mmt from last month (19 percent), and up 1.6 mmt from last year (31 percent). Area is estimated
at 2.32 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha (7 percent) from last month, and up 0.3 mha (14 percent)
from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.93 tons per hectare, an increase of 12 percent from last
month, up 15 percent from last year, and up 14 percent from the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jul 10 2020 | Brazil Wheat: Production Estimate Increases from Last Year |
Brazil’s 2020/21 wheat production is estimated at 5.7 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.2 mmt from
last month, and up 0.5 mmt from last year. Area is estimated at 2.2 million hectares (mha), up 0.1
mha (4 percent) from last month, and up 0.14 mha (7 percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at
2.62 tons per hectare, the same as last month, up 3 percent from last year, and up 2 percent from
the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Jun 11 2020 | Brazil Corn: 2019/20 Record Production due to Second-Season Crop |
Brazil’s 2019/20 corn production is estimated at 101 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from
last month and equal to last year’s record crop. Area is estimated at a record 18.4 million hectares
(mha), up 0.2 mha (1 percent) from last month, and up 1 mha (5 percent) from last year. Yield is
estimated at 5.49 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month, down 5 percent from last year,
and 5 percent above the 5-year average. Nationally, forecast yields were lowered due to the early
season losses in states south of Mato Grosso. (For more information, please contact Sunita.Yadav-Pauletti@usda.gov.)
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| May 12 2020 | Brazil Corn: Record 2019/20 Area Planted |
Brazil’s 2019/20 corn production is estimated at 101 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from
last month and last year’s record crop. Area is estimated at a record 18.2 million hectares (mha),
up 0.1 mha (0.6 percent) from last month and up 0.7 mha (4 percent) from last year. Yield is
estimated at 5.55 tons per hectare, down 0.5 percent from last month, down 4 percent from last
year and up 7 percent from the 5-year average. Forecast yields for the second-season crop were
lowered this month due to dry March and April weather conditions in southern Mato Grosso,
Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
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|
| May 12 2020 | Brazil Soybeans: 2019/20 Record Output Expected Despite Severe Drought in Rio Grande |
Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at a record 124.0 million metric tons (mmt),
down 0.5 mmt from last month but up 5.0 mmt (4 percent) from last year. Area is estimated at a
record 36.8 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last month and up 0.9 mha (3 percent)
from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.37 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, up 3 percent
from last year and up 5 percent from the 5-year average. Record output is expected despite
weather-related production losses in Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil’s record output this year will
overtake the United States as the world’s leading soybean producer. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
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|
| Apr 9 2020 | Brazil Cotton: Record Second-Season Area Planted in Mato Grosso |
Brazil’s 2019/20 cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, up 0.2 million
bales (2 percent) from last month and up 0.2 million bales (2 percent) from last year. Harvested
cotton area is forecast at 1.7 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 0.06 mha
(4 percent) from last year. Cotton yield is forecast at 1,691 kilograms per hectare, above the 5-
year average yield by 6 percent and below last year’s yield by 2 percent. The harvested area
forecast is the highest since 1991 due to favorable returns from last year’s crop, and similar returns
are expected this year assuming normal weather. (For more information,
please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Apr 9 2020 | Brazil Corn: Favorable First-Season Harvest and Record Second-Season Area Planted |
Brazil’s 2019/20 corn production is estimated at a record 101 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged from last month and last year. Area is estimated at a record 18.1 million hectares,
unchanged from last month and up 0.6 million hectares (3 percent) from last year. Yield is
estimated at 5.58 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, down 3 percent from last year and
up 8 percent from the 5-year average. Brazil’s first season (summer or main) corn production has
been decreasing since 2007 while production for the second season (winter or safrinha) crop has
grown and currently comprises approximately three-quarters of Brazil’s total corn production. (For more information, please contact
Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
|
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| Apr 9 2020 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Output Expected Despite Severe Drought in Rio Grande do Sul |
Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at a record 124.5 million metric tons (mmt),
down 1.5 mmt (1 percent) from last month but up 7.5 mmt (6 percent) from last year. Area is
estimated at a record 36.9 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 1 mha (3
percent) from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.37 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month,
up 3 percent from last year and up 5 percent from the 5-year average. Record output is expected
despite weather-related production losses in Rio Grande do Sul. With a record output this year,
Brazil will overtake the United States as the world’s leading soybean producer. (For more information, please contact
Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Mar 10 2020 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Area and Output |
Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at a record 126.0 million metric tons (mmt), up
1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month and 9.0 mmt (8 percent) from last year. Area is estimated at
a record 36.9 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 1 mha (3 percent) from
last year. Yield is estimated at 3.41 tons per hectare, up 1 percent from last month, up 5 percent
from last year and up 6 percent from the 5-year average. Soybean area continues to increase, and
this year Brazil will overtake the United States as the world’s leading soybean producer. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
|
|
| Feb 11 2020 | Brazil Cotton: Planting Begins for Second-Season Crop |
Brazil’s 2019/20 cotton production is forecast at 12.7 million 480-pound bales, up 0.20 million
bales (2 percent) from last month but down 0.30 million bales (2 percent) from last year.
Harvested 2019/20 cotton area is forecast at 1.65 million hectares (mha), up 0.03 mha (2 percent)
from last month and 0.01 mha (1 percent) from last year. Cotton yield is forecast at 1,676
kilograms per hectare, above the five-year average yield. This year, Brazilian producers are
expected to plant the most area since 1991 due to favorable returns from last year’s crop, and
similar returns are expected for this year if weather cooperates. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
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| Feb 11 2020 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Output Expected as Area Continues to Increase at Record Pace |
Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at a record 125 million metric tons (mmt), up 2
mmt (2 percent) from last month and 8 mmt (7 percent) from last year. Area is estimated at a
record 36.9 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up 1 mha (3 percent) from last
year. Yield is estimated at 3.39 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month, up 4 percent from
last year and up 6 percent from the 5-year average. Record output is expected this year and soybean
area continues to increase at a record pace. This year Brazil is also expected to overtake the United
States as the world’s leading soybean producer. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jan 10 2020 | Brazil Corn: Record Area and Production |
Brazil’s 2019/20 corn production is estimated at a record 101 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged from last month and last year. Area is estimated at a record 18.1 million hectares,
unchanged from last month and up 0.6 million hectares or 3 percent from last year. Yield is
estimated at 5.58 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, down 3 percent from last year and
up 8 percent from the 5-year average. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov).
|
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| Jan 10 2020 | Brazil Soybeans: Brazil Expected to be World’s Leading Soybean Producer Despite Planting Delays Caused by Drought |
Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at a record 123 million metric tons (mmt),
unchanged from last month and up 6 million tons or 5 percent from last year. Area is estimated at
a record 36.9 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1 million hectares or 3 percent
from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.33 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, but up 2
percent from last year and up 4 percent from the 5-year average. If weather cooperates this growing
season, Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s leading soybean producer. (For more information,
please contact Curt.Reynolds@usda.gov.)
|
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| Jun 11 2019 | Brazil Corn: Continued Rains Boost Second-Crop Corn Yields for 2018/19 |
USDA estimates Brazil’s 2018/19 corn production at a record 101.0 million metric tons (mmt), up
1.0 mmt (1 percent) from last month, and up 19.0 mmt (23 percent) from last year. Harvested area
is estimated at a record 17.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 5 percent from
last year. Yield is estimated at a record 5.77 metric tons per hectare, up 1 percent from last month,
up 17 percent from last year’s crop which was affected by drought, and 11 percent higher than the
5-year average. This year’s first-crop corn yields were reduced by dry weather in parts of the
southeast and northeast. For second-crop corn, however, bumper yields are estimated. The second
corn crop was planted earlier than average and benefited from extensive and extended rainfall.
Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in major second-crop corn
areas indicated a well-developed crop with higher yield prospects in all regions. Harvest is
underway in the major corn regions and will continue into September. (For more information,
contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov.)
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|
| May 10 2019 | Brazil Corn: Production Up 22 Percent for 2018/19 |
USDA estimates Brazil’s 2018/19 corn production at a record 100.0 million metric tons (mmt), up
4.0 mmt (4 percent) from last month, and up 18.0 mmt (22 percent) from last year. Harvested area
is estimated at a record 17.5 million hectares (mha), up 0.3 mha (2 percent) from last month and
up 5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 5.71 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent
from last month and up 16 percent from last year’s crop, which was affected by drought in southern
and eastern corn regions. (For more information, contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
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|
| May 10 2019 | Brazil Cotton: Higher Area and Increased Yield Prospects Boosts Output for 2018/19 |
USDA estimates Brazil’s 2018/19 cotton production at a record 12.8 million 480-lb bales, up 1.0
million bales (8 percent) from last month, and up 3.6 million bales (39 percent) from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at 1.6 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month and up 36 percent
from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 1,747 kilograms per hectare, up 7 percent from last
month and surpassing the prior record (2017/18) by 2 percent. (For more
information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Apr 9 2019 | Brazil Soybeans: Output Revised Upward |
Brazil soybean production for 2018/19 is estimated at 117.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.5
mmt from last month but down 4 percent from last year’s record crop of 122.0 mmt. Harvested
area is estimated at 36.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month, up 3 percent from last
year. Yield is estimated at 3.24 metric tons per hectare, up slightly from last month but still 7
percent below last year’s record. Yields were down from last year in drought-affected states in
the Center-West and Southeast regions. In Rio Grande do Sul, however, favorable weather
boosted yields compared to last year when drought in the southern half of the state reduced
yields. Most of the crop in Rio Grande do Sul is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Nationally
more than 75 percent of the crop has been harvested. (For additional information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Apr 9 2019 | Brazil Corn: Production Estimated Higher |
Corn production for 2018/19 is estimated at 96.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.5 mmt (2
percent) from last month, and up 14.0 mmt (17 percent) from last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 17.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 4 percent from last year.
Yield is estimated at 5.58 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 13
percent from last year’s drought-affected crop. Dry weather in parts of the southeast and
northeast reduced first-crop corn yields. However, second-crop yield prospects remain positive
for a crop that has received favorable weather thus far in the season and was planted earlier than
average. (For additional
information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Mar 8 2019 | Brazil Corn: Area Down and Yield Up |
Corn production for 2018/19 is estimated at 94.5 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last
month, but up 12.5 mmt or 15 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 17.2 million
hectares (mha), down 0.3 mha or 2 percent from last month but up 4 percent from last year. Yield
is estimated at 5.49 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 11 percent from
last year’s crop which was affected by untimely and extended dryness that lowered yields in
southern, second-crop corn production areas. This year’s second-crop yield is estimated higher
due to rapid earlier-than-average planting and favorable early-season weather. (For more information, contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov)
|
|
| Mar 8 2019 | Brazil Soybeans: Output Further Reduced |
Brazil soybean production for 2018/19 is estimated at 116.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.5
mmt from last month and down 4 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at
36.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 3 percent from last year. Yield is
estimated at 3.23 metric tons per hectare, down slightly from last month and 6 percent below last
year’s record crop. Production estimates for drought-affected states in the Center-West and
Southeast regions were revised downward but partially offset by gains in regions of Mato Grosso,
unaffected by drought, and in Rio Grande do Sul where the developing crop is benefiting from
favorable weather. Nationally more than 45 percent of the crop has been harvested. (For more
information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Feb 8 2019 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Down Due to Drought |
Brazil soybean production for 2018/19 is estimated at 117.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 5
mmt or 4 percent from December and 3 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is
estimated at 36.1 million hectares, down slightly from December, but up 3 percent from last
year. Yield is estimated at 3.24 metric tons per hectare, down 4 percent from December and 6
percent below last year’s record, which benefited from favorable weather. Generally favorable
weather at the start of the season was followed by irregular rainfall with sustained periods of
dryness in portions of the South and Center-West regions. (For more information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 11 2018 | Brazil Cotton: Record Production Forecast on Higher Area and Yield |
Brazil cotton production for 2018/19 is forecast at a record 11.0 million 480-lb bales, up 1 million
bales (10 percent) from last month, and up 1.8 million bales (19 percent) from last year. Harvested
area is forecast at 1.4 million hectares, up 8 percent from last month and up 19 percent from last
year. Yield is forecast at 1,711 kilograms per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and almost
equal to last year’s record. (For more
information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Dec 11 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production Forecast due to Higher Yield |
Brazil soybean production for 2018/19 is forecast at a record 122 million metric tons (mmt), up
1.5 mmt (1 percent) from last month and up 1 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is
estimated at 36.2 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but up 3 percent from last
year. Soybean area expansion continues for the thirteenth straight year, with the most significant
2018/19 gains forecast for the Center-West region and the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Planting has
progressed at a faster-than-average pace, with planting already more than 90 percent complete. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Sep 12 2018 | Brazil Cotton: Forecast Production Up on Higher Yield |
USDA forecast Brazil 2018/9 cotton production at a record 10.0 million 480-lb bales, up 0.5
million bales (5 percent) from last month, and up 0.8 million bales (8 percent) from last year.
Harvested area is forecast at 1.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 11 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1,675 kilograms per hectare, up 5 percent from last month but
down 2 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Jul 12 2018 | Brazil Corn: Estimated Output for 2017/18 Further Reduced |
Corn production for 2017/18 is estimated at 83.5
million metric tons (mmt), down 1.5 mmt from
last month, and down 15.0 mmt from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at 16.8 million
hectares (mha), down slightly from last month
and down 5 percent from last year. Yield is
estimated at 4.97 metric tons per hectare, down
1 percent from last month and down 11 percent
from last year due to adverse weather in
southern second-crop corn production areas. In
Paraná (18 percent of Brazil’s second-crop corn
production) and Mato Grosso do Sul (14
percent), prolonged periods of dryness during
critical reproductive stages severely reduced
yields. Subsequent rains brought some relief
but were too late to reverse damage to much of
the drought-affected crop. In Mato Grosso (42
percent) and Goiás (12 percent), the crop benefited from more favorable weather, although yields
remain below last year’s records. About 10 percent of the corn crop had been harvested by early
July. Harvest of the majority of second-crop corn will continue through September. (For more information, contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Jul 12 2018 | Brazil Cotton: Forecast Production Up on Higher Area |
Cotton production for 2018/19 is forecast at a record 9.50 million 480-lb bales, up 0.5 million
bales or 6 percent from last
month, and up 0.3 million bales
or 3 percent from last year.
Harvested area is forecast at 1.3
million hectares, up 7 percent
from last month and up 9
percent from last year. Yield is
estimated at 1,591 kilograms
per hectare (kg/ha), down 1
percent from last month and
down 5 percent from last year’s
record. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Jul 12 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Forecast Production Due to 7 percent Increase in Area |
Brazil’s soybean production for 2018/19 is forecast at a record 120.5 million metric tons (mmt),
up 2.5 mmt or 2 percent from last month and up 1 percent from the previous year. Harvested
area is forecast at a record 37.5 million hectares (mha), up 1.0 mha or 3 percent from last month
and up 7 percent from last year. Soybean area is forecast to continue expanding as it has for the
past 10 years, with 2018/19 forecast to have the highest annual increase in 5 years. It is
anticipated that Brazilian producers will plant more soybeans to capitalize on the trade advantage
over the United States in response to China’s imposition of retaliatory duties. Yield is forecast at
3.21 metric tons per hectare, near the 25-year trend but 6 percent below last year’s record. Last
year’s crop benefited from favorable weather and improved technology that raised yields to
record levels almost everywhere, except in the south. Planting begins in September in the
primary growing areas of the Center-West and South regions and continues through December in
the rest of the country. (For more information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Jun 12 2018 | Brazil Corn: 2017/18 Lower Area and Yield for Drought-Affected Second Crop |
USDA forecasts 2017/18 Brazil corn production at 85.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 2 mmt
or 2 percent from last month, and down 13.5 mmt or 14 percent from last year. Harvested area is
forecast at 16.9 million hectares (mha), down 0.2 mha or 1 percent from last month and down 4
percent from last year. Compared to the previous year, area planted to second-crop corn is down
5 percent in the principal production regions of the Center-West and South according to Brazil’s
Ministry of Supply (CONAB). Yield is estimated at 5.03 metric tons per hectare, down 1 percent
from last month and down 10 percent from last year due to adverse weather in southern secondcrop
corn production areas. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Jun 12 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: 2017/18 Record Yield boosts Production |
USDA estimates 2017/18 Brazil soybean production at 119.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.0
mmt or 2 percent from last month and up 4 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is
estimated at a record 35.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 4 percent from the
previous year. Yield is estimated at a record 3.39 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last
month and up slightly from the previous year. Favorable weather and improved technology
helped raise yields to record levels almost everywhere, except in the south, which experienced less favorable weather. Harvest is finished in major central and southern soybean producing
regions and is almost complete in the north and northeastern regions. (For more information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| May 10 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: 2018/19 Production Forecast to Match Last Year’s Record |
Soybean production for 2018/19 is forecast at 117.0 million metric tons (mmt), equal to last year’s record. Harvested area is forecast at a record 36.5 million hectares (mha), up 1.4 mha or 4 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.21 metric tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last year’s second highest yield on record, but above the 5- year average. Soybean area has been increasing as agricultural land developed for crop production has expanded in Brazil, and also because of the continued reduction in first-crop corn, a less lucrative alternative which is planted at the same time as soybeans. For 2018/19, growth in soybean area is expected to be further driven by higher soybean prices and stronger internal demand. Planting of the 2018/19 crop begins in October. (For more information, please contact Maria Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| May 10 2018 | Brazil Corn: 2017/18 Production Down 5 Percent Due to Drought |
Brazil corn production for 2017/18 is estimated at 87.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 5 mmt or 5 percent from last month, and down 11.5 mmt or 12 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 17.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.09 metric tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year due to drought in southern second-crop corn production areas. First-crop corn has been harvested. Second-crop corn planting was delayed in some areas where the soybean crop was harvested late. Timely planting is critical because earlier planted second-crop corn has more time to benefit from seasonal rains during the reproductive stages. (For more information, please contact Maria Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Apr 10 2018 | Brazil Rice: Yield Estimated Higher |
Rice production for 2017/18 is estimated at 11.9 million metric tons (mmt), or 8.1 mmt on a
milled basis, up 3 percent from last month, but down 4 percent from last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 1.96 million hectares (mha), down 40 thousand hectares or 2 percent from last
month and down slightly from last year. Yield is estimated at 6.06 metric tons per hectare, up 5
percent from last month but down 3 percent from last year’s record. Seventy percent of Brazil’s
rice crop is produced in central-west and southern Rio Grande do Sul. The majority of the rice
crop is irrigated and fared well despite the drought in southern Rio Grande do Sul. Water
supplies
were
sufficient
during the
growing
season
although
reservoirs
are now at
very low
levels. In
Rio
Grande do
Sul, about one-third of the crop has been harvested. Harvest concludes in May in the south but
will continue through September in northern minor rice producing areas of Brazil. (For more
information, please contact Maria Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Apr 10 2018 | Brazil Cotton: Estimated Production Increased 24 Percent from Last Year |
Cotton production for 2017/18 is estimated at 8.7 million 480-pound bales, up 0.7 million bales
or 9 percent from last month, and up 1.7 million bales or 24 percent from last year. Harvested
area is estimated at 1.2 million hectares (mha), up 5 percent from last month and up 25 percent
from last year. Yield is estimated at 1,605 kilograms per hectare, up 3 percent from last month
but below last year’s record. Last year’s successful season and this year’s higher prices
encouraged producers to increase area. In Mato Grosso (66 percent of production), area planted
to cotton is estimated 25 percent higher than last year according to the Mato Grosso Institute of
Agricultural Economics (IMEA); in Bahia (23 percent of production), government and trade
sources estimate area is up by about 23 to 27 percent. Weather has been favorable for the crop
thus far. The majority of the cotton will be harvested from June to August. (For more
information, please contact Maria Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Apr 10 2018 | Brazil Corn: Estimated Production Down 7 Percent from Last Year |
Corn production
for 2017/18 is
estimated at 92.0
million metric
tons (mmt), down
2.5 mmt or 3
percent from last
month, and down
6.5 mmt or 7
percent from last
year. Harvested
area is estimated
at 17.1 million
hectares (mha),
down 0.5 mha or
3 percent from
both last month
and last year. Yield is estimated at 5.38 metric tons per hectare, up slightly from last month but
down 4 percent from last year. First-crop corn yield is near the 5-year average according to
CONAB (National Supply Company of Brazil). Area is lower for the first and second-corn crops
as producers opted instead to plant either soybeans or cotton for higher financial returns. The
delayed soybean harvest caused producers to plant a later and riskier second crop of corn or to
not plant at all, according to farmer interviews. Early planting provides the crop more time to
benefit from seasonal rain during the reproductive stages. Harvest of first-crop corn is underway
and planting of second-crop corn has been completed in the Center-West and South regions (94
percent of second-corn production). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from
satellite imagery indicates very good vegetation health for the second crop thus far this season.
The majority of second-crop corn is harvested from June to September. (For more information,
please contact Maria Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Apr 10 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production Expected |
Soybean production for 2017/18 is estimated at a record 115.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 2
mmt or 2 percent from last month, and up 0.9 mmt or 1 percent from last year. Harvested area is
estimated at 35.0 million hectares
(mha), unchanged from last month
but up 1.1 mha or 3 percent from
last year. Soybean yield is
estimated at 3.29 metric tons per
hectare, up 2 percent from last
month but down 2 percent from
last year. Nationally, more than
two-thirds of the crop has been
harvested. Harvest has been
completed in Mato Grosso. In
Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, the
crop is 84 and 20 percent
harvested, respectively, according
to state government and industry sources. Drought in southern Rio Grande do Sul reduced yield.
Soybean production has been given an extra boost this year by the exceptionally good rains that
occurred in the north and northeastern regions. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) from
satellite
imagery
indicates
very good
vegetation
health in
these regions
during the
growing
season.
Yields from
these regions
are expected
to be at above-average or record levels. (For more information, please contact Maria
Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Apr 10 2018 | Brazil Crops: Summer Crop Yields Estimated Higher |
The summer crop season has been characterized by generally favorable weather with adequate
rainfall and sunshine providing good growing conditions for summer crops, except in southern
Rio Grande do Sul which experienced drought. Yields for soybeans, corn, cotton, and rice are
estimated to be above average but below last year’s records. (For more information, please contact Maria
Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Mar 8 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Estimate Higher as Harvest Continues |
Brazil’s soybean production for 2017/18 is estimated at 113.0 million metric tons (mmt),
up 1.0 mmt or 1 percent from last month but just below last year’s record. Harvested area
is estimated at a record 35.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 3
percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.23 metric tons per hectare, up 1 percent
from last month, but down 4 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Mar 8 2018 | Brazil Corn: Production Estimated Down Due to Lower Area |
Brazil corn production is estimated at 94.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 1 percent
from last month and down 4 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is estimated
at 17.6 million hectares, down 1 percent from last month and unchanged from last year.
Yield is estimated at 5.37 metric tons per hectare, down slightly from last month and
down 4 percent from last year’s record yield. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov.)
Foreign
|
|
| Feb 8 2018 | Brazil Cotton: Production Estimated Up on Higher Area |
Cotton production for 2017/18 is estimated at 8.0 million 480-pound bales, up 0.2 million bales or 3 percent from last month, and up 1.0 million bales or 14 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.1 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month, and up 180 thousand hectares or 19 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1,555 kilograms per hectare, up 1 percent from last month but still down 4 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Feb 8 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: Another Bumper Crop in the Making |
Brazil soybean production for 2017/18 is estimated at 112 million metric tons (mmt), up 2 mmt
or 2 percent from last month but still down 2 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is
estimated at a record 35 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 3 percent from last
year. Yield is estimated at 3.20 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month, but down
5 percent from last year’s record. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Jan 12 2018 | Brazil Soybeans: Crop Prospects Remain Favorable |
Brazil soybean production for 2017/18 is estimated at 110 million metric tons, up 2 percent from
last month but down 4 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at a record 35
million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated
at 3.14 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), up 2 percent from last month, but down 7 percent from last
year’s record. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Dec 12 2017 | Brazil Wheat: Production Lowest in Ten Years |
Brazil wheat production for 2017/18 is
estimated at 4.25 million metric tons (mmt),
down 0.65 mmt or 13 percent from last month
and down 37 percent from last year’s record.
Harvested area is estimated at 1.9 million
hectares (mha), unchanged from last month but
down 10 percent from last year. Yield is
estimated at 2.24 metric tons per hectare, down
13 percent from last month and down 30
percent from last year’s record. The record
yield of 2016/17 was due to favorable weather. (For more information, please
contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Nov 9 2017 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Forecast Higher |
Brazil soybean production for 2017/18 is forecast at 108.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.0
mmt or 1 percent from last month but down 5 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is
estimated at a record 34.9 million hectares (mha), up 0.2 mha or 1 percent from last month and
up 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.09 metric tons per hectare, up slightly from
last month but down 8 percent from last year’s record. Yields for 2016/17 were at record levels
in many parts of the country due to a combination of exceptionally favorable weather and
technological improvements. (For more information, please
contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov)
|
|
| Aug 10 2017 | Brazil Corn: 2016/17 Record Production Estimated Higher |
Brazil’s 2016/17 corn production is estimated at a record 98.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 3.5
mmt from last month and up 31.5 mmt from 2015/16. Harvested area is estimated at a record
17.55 million hectares, up slightly from last month and up 9 percent from 2015/16 with secondcrop
corn making up two-thirds of the total area. Second-crop harvesting began in June and
nearly two-thirds of the crop has been harvested. Yield is estimated at a record 5.61 tons per
hectare, up 4 percent from last month and up 34 percent from the drought-affected 2015/16 crop.
|
|
| Jun 9 2017 | Brazil Soybeans: 2016/17 Another Record Crop |
Brazil 2016/17 soybean production is estimated
at a record 114 million metric tons (mmt), up
2.4 mmt from last month and up 17.5 mmt from
2015/16. Harvested area is estimated at 34
million hectares (mha), unchanged from last
month and up 0.7 mha from 2015/16. Yield is
estimated at a record 3.35 metric tons per
hectare, up 2 percent from last month and 16
percent from 2015/16. Excellent weather during
the growing season and higher-yielding
varieties produced the record soybean crop for
Brazil. The majority of the soybean crop was
harvested from January through May. Incoming
harvest results have continued to indicate a
much larger soybean crop than initially
expected with record yields in many states.
Harvesting continues through June in minor
soybean growing areas in the North and
Northeast regions. (For more information,
please contact MariaAnulacion@fas.usda.gov).
|
|
| Jun 9 2017 | Brazil Corn: Extended Rainy Season Boosts 2016/17 Production |
Brazil 2016/17 corn production is estimated at a record 97 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.0 mmt
from last month and up 45 percent from 2015/16. Harvested area is estimated at 17.5 million
hectares, unchanged from last month, and up 9 percent from 2015/16 with second-crop corn
making up two-thirds of the total area. Yield is estimated at a record 5.54 metric tons per hectare,
up 1 percent from last month and up 32 percent from the 2015/16 drought-affected crop.
|
|
| May 10 2017 | Brazil Corn: 2016/17 Record Production Estimated Higher |
Brazil corn production for 2016/17 is estimated at a record 96.0 million metric tons (mmt), up
2.5 mmt from last month and up 43 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a
record 17.5 million hectares (mha), compared to 17.3 mha last month and 16.0 mha last year.
Estimated area is up 9 percent from last year with second-crop corn making up two-thirds of the
total area. Yield is estimated at a record 5.49 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last
month and up 31 percent from last year.
|
|
| May 10 2017 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Crop for 2016/17 |
Brazil soybean production for 2016/17 is
estimated at a record 111.6 million
metric tons (mmt), up 0.6 mmt from last
month’s estimate and up 15.1 mmt from
last year. Harvested area is estimated at a
record 34 million hectares (mha),
unchanged from last month and up 0.7
mha from last year. Yield is estimated at
a record 3.28 metric tons per hectare, up
1 percent from last month and 13 percent
from last year. The soybean harvest is
approaching completion in most of the
country and harvest reports indicate
month-to-month increases in yields for
the Center-West, South and North
regions. The yield potential of this record soybean crop was achieved through a combination of
improved seed varieties, better crop management practices, and very favorable weather. (For
more information, please contact Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov.)
|
|
| Apr 11 2017 | Brazil Corn, Cotton, and Soybean Crops: Record Yields Boost Production Higher |
The summer crop season in Brazil has been characterized by favorable weather with welldistributed
and adequate rainfall and sunlight. Record yields are estimated for soybeans, corn and
cotton based on timely plantings and excellent growing conditions throughout most of the
country
|
|
| Mar 9 2017 | Brazil Corn: Record Production Estimated Higher |
Brazil corn production for 2016/17 is estimated at 91.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 5.0 mmt
from last month and up 24.5 mmt from last year. The higher production estimate is based on
improved yields for the first crop and increased area for the second crop. Harvested area is
estimated at 17.0 million hectares (mha), compared to 16.7 mha last month and 16.0 mha last
year. Estimated area is up 7 percent from last year with the majority of the additional area
planted to the second crop. The second crop comprises two-thirds of the total area. Yield is
estimated at 5.38 metric tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last month and up 29 percent from
last year. Last year’s below-average yield resulted from the reduced output of the droughtaffected
second crop.
|
|
| Mar 9 2017 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Estimated at Record Level |
Brazil soybean production for 2016/17 is estimated at a record 108.0 million metric tons (mmt),
up 4.0 mmt from last month and up 11.5 mmt from last year. Harvested area is estimated at a
record 33.9 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up from 33.3 mha last year.
Ten percent or 0.5 mha more area was planted in the North and Northeast regions. Area also
increased in the Center-West but was offset by declines in the South and Southwest. Yield is
estimated at 3.19 metric tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last month and up 10 percent from
last year. The crop has benefited from favorable weather with ample rainfall throughout the
growing season, raising prospects for above-average yields.
|
|
| Feb 9 2017 | Brazil Corn: Harvest of First-Crop Corn Underway |
Brazil corn production for 2016/17 is estimated at 86.5 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged
from last month; up 19.5 mmt from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 16.7 million
hectares, up 0.7 million from last year. Yield is estimated above average at 5.18 metric tons per
hectare, 24 percent higher than last year’s crop, which suffered from an earlier-than-expected
end to rainfall during the second-crop growing season. This year’s first-crop has benefited from
generally favorable growing conditions throughout the growing areas. The normalized difference
vegetation index (NDVI) indicates average to above-average vegetation health in Paraná and
throughout the first-crop growing areas. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry, CONAB (Companhia
Nacional de Abastecimento), estimates first-crop yield 7 percent higher than last year. Harvest is
underway in the central, southern regions and in parts of northern Brazil. Harvest is progressing
at an average to above-average pace despite reports of seasonably wet weather limiting field
work. Planting of second-crop corn, which follows the soybean harvest, began in January. This
season’s soybeans were planted at a more rapid pace than last year, and harvest of earlier-planted
short-season soybeans is ongoing. An earlier soybean harvest facilitates earlier planting of
second-crop corn. Planting of second-crop corn continues through March in the Center-West
region and through May elsewhere. (For more information, please contact
Maria.Anulacion@fas.usda.gov).
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| Jan 12 2017 | Brazil Soybean: Record Production |
Brazil soybean production for 2016/17 is estimated at a record 104.0 million tons compared to
96.5 million last year. The increase is attributed to data from CONAB (Companhia Nacional de
Abastecimento) and SEAB-DERAL (Secretaria de Estado da Agricultura e do Abastecimento-
Departamento de Economia Rural). Harvested area is estimated at a record 33.9 million hectares,
up 0.6 million hectares from last year’s record, and up 2 percent from the 5-year average. Yield
is estimated at 3.07 tons per hectare, 6 percent above both last year and the 5-year average.
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| Dec 9 2016 | Brazil Corn: Production Estimate to Increase 29 Percent from Last Year |
Brazil’s corn production for 2016/17 is estimated at 86.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 3.0 mmt
from last month and 19.5 mmt from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 16.7 million
hectares, up 0.7 million hectares from last year. First crop corn comprises 34 percent and the
second or safrinha crop 66 percent of the total planted area. A three percent increase in first crop
area is estimated by the Brazilian government (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento or
CONAB). The first crop was planted from September through November. A rise in second crop
area is also expected to be driven by optimism for higher output compared to last year’s poor
harvest. The second crop is planted from January through March, following the harvest of
soybeans.
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| Nov 9 2016 | Brazil Soybean: Record Crop Forecast |
Brazil soybean production for 2016/17 is forecast at 102.0 million tons unchanged from last
month but up from 96.5 million last year. Harvested area is forecast at 33.8 million hectares, up
0.7 million hectares from last year and up 14 percent from the 5-year average.
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| Sep 12 2016 | Brazil Wheat: Production Benefits from Favorable End-of-Season Weather |
Brazil wheat production for 2016/17 is estimated at 6.0 million tons compared to 5.5 million last
year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.1 million hectares, down 0.4 million hectares from last
year and down 8.0 percent from the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 2.86 tons per hectare,
26 percent above last year and 21 percent above the 5-year average. Sources had been concerned
about above-average rains early in the season, however the rains have benefitted the crop. Both
the amount and timing of the precipitation were favorable for the 2016/17 wheat crop. Harvest
will begin in October.
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| Sep 12 2016 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Forecast to Increase 5 Percent from Last Year |
Brazil soybean production for 2016/17 is forecast at 101.0 million metric tons compared to 96.5
million last year. The harvested area is forecast at 33.7 million hectares, up 0.6 million hectares
from last year. The month-to-month decrease of 1.9 percent in USDA’s forecast soybean
production is due to price changes. The 2016/17 soybean crop is not as large as was first
expected due to a shift in prices now being more favorable to corn than soybeans. Planting
begins in September in the main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in the south.
Yield is forecast just below trend at 3.00 tons per hectare, based on the assumption of normal
weather.
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| Sep 12 2016 | Brazil Corn: Production Forecast to Increase 23 Percent from Last Year |
Brazil corn production for 2016/17 is forecast at 82.5 million tons compared to 67.0 million last
year. Harvested area is forecast at 16.3 million hectares, up 0.5 million hectares from last year.
Yield is forecast at 5.06 tons per hectare, 21 percent above last year. The 2016/17 first-season
corn has just begun with reports of planting having started early. This is likely due to favorable
soil moisture across parts of the Southern and Central-west regions.
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| Jul 12 2016 | Brazil Corn: 2015/16 Second-Crop Corn Estimate Reduced Due to Dryness and Frost |
Brazil corn production for 2015/16 is now estimated at 70.0 million metric tons compared to
77.5 million last month. Harvested area is estimated at 15.8 million hectares, down 1.3 percent
from last month and unchanged from last year’s 15.8 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 4.43
tons per hectare, 18 percent below last year and 10 percent below the 5-year average. The
production decline comes from a decrease in the second planted corn crop which can make up
nearly 65 percent of the total crop. Dry weather from an early end to precipitation in the Center
West Region, and freezing temperatures in mid-June over Paraná were responsible for a decrease in production of the second crop across the country. In Goiás, which produces 14 percent of the
second crop, dry weather prevented much of the late-planted second-crop corn from reaching its
full yield potential. Many of the late planted fields may not be harvested. The extent of the
freeze in Paraná will become more evident as harvest begins. Paraná normally accounts for 22
percent of the second crop. Over 40 percent of the Paraná crop was reportedly still maturing and
was susceptible to freezing weather.
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| Jun 11 2016 | Brazil Soybeans: 2015/16 Soybean Harvest Nearly Complete |
Brazil soybean production for 2015/16 is estimated at 97.0 million tons compared to 99.0 million
last month. The decrease is attributed mainly due to dryness in the eastern and northeastern
regions. The harvested area estimate of 33.1 million hectares is down 0.2 million from last month
but up from last year’s level of 32.1 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 2.93 metric tons per
hectare, 2.3 percent below last year but 0.3 percent above the 5-year average. Below normal
precipitation reduced soybean yields in the southern and eastern areas of Mato Grosso. In
addition, the weather has been drier than normal throughout much of the growing season in the
northeastern region and has had a significant negative impact on yield, especially for the state of
Bahia. Harvest is over 90 percent complete and should be finished by the end of June.
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| Jun 11 2016 | Brazil Corn: 2015/16 Production Estimate Reduced Due to Dryness in Second Crop |
Brazil corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at 77.5 million metric tons compared to 81.0
million last month. The harvested area estimate of 16.0 million hectares is unchanged from last
month but up 1.3 percent from last year’s 15.8 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 4.84 metric
tons per hectare, 10 percent below last year’s record level and 1.6 percent below the 5-year
average. Dry weather was largely responsible for the decrease in production of the second crop
throughout the country, especially in the Central West Region, one of the largest producing
regions. In Goiás, dry weather has prevented much of the late-planted second crop (planted
after February) from reaching its potential, with many fields likely to be abandoned. Rains have
continued in the south and should help to alleviate some of the losses in the northeast.
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| May 10 2016 | Brazil Corn: 2015/16 Second Corn Estimate Reduced Due to Dryness |
Brazil corn production for 2015/16 is estimated at 81.0 million tons compared to 84.0 million
last month. The harvested area estimate of 16.0 million hectares is down 0.2 million from last
month but is slightly up from last year’s 15.8 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 5.06 tons
per hectare, 6.2 percent below last year and 2.8 percent above the 5-year average. The estimate
was lowered due to dryness across the eastern states of Tocantins, Bahia, Goias, Minas Gerais,
and Sao Paulo. Mato Grosso, which produces 36 percent of the second crop, has been only
moderately impacted from below normal precipitation in the eastern and southern areas. The
weather has been drier than normal for the entire growing season in the northeastern region. This
has had a negative impact on second-crop corn as this crop needs precipitation to extend into late
May to reach its full potential.
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| May 10 2016 | Brazil Soybeans: Dry Conditions for 2015/16 Soybean in the Northeast |
Brazil soybean production for 2015/16 is estimated at 99.0 million tons compared to 100.0
million last month. The decrease is attributed mainly due to dryness in the eastern and
northeastern regions. The harvested area estimate of 33.3 million hectares is slightly up from
last year’s level of 32.1 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 2.97 tons per hectare, 1.9 percent
below last year and 1.4 percent above the 5-year average. Localized dry weather from early to
mid-December reduced soybean yields in the southern and eastern areas of Mato Grosso. The
weather has been drier than normal throughout the entire growing season in the northeastern
region and has had a significant negative impact on yield, especially for the state of Bahia.
Harvest is nearly complete and will be finished when field operations wrap up in Rio Grande Do
Sul.
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| Apr 12 2016 | Brazil Corn: Second Crop Final Outcome Depends on Late Season Precipitation |
Brazil’s 2015/16 total corn production is estimated at 84.0 million metric tons, unchanged from
last month but down 1.2 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 16.2 million
hectares, unchanged from last month but up 2.9 percent from last year. The estimated yield of
5.19 tons per hectare is unchanged from last month but down 1.2 percent from a year ago.
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| Mar 9 2016 | Brazil Soybean: Estimated Production Remains at Record Level |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean production at a record 100.0 million metric tons
(mmt), unchanged from last month and up 3.8 mmt or 4.0 percent from last year. Harvested area
is unchanged at a record 33.3 million hectares, up 1.2 million or 3.7 percent from last year.
Yield is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, slightly above the 5-year average. A slow start of the
seasonal rains in Mato Grosso and northeastern Brazil in conjunction with high early season
temperatures led some forecasters to reduce their estimates for early planted soybeans. By early
January, however, rain intensified throughout Brazil’s central and northeastern farming areas,
improving conditions for the soybean crop. At the same time, a continuation of beneficial rain
maintained favorable corn and soybean prospects throughout southern Brazil. Harvest has just
begun and early yield observations are better than expected. As of February 29, harvest was 33
percent complete compared to 28 percent last year and the 5-year average of 29 percent.
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| Feb 9 2016 | Brazil Corn: Favorable Corn Prices Boost Second-Crop Corn Area |
USDA estimates Brazil corn production for 2015/16 at 84.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.5
mmt or 3.1 percent from last month, but down 1.0 mmt or 1.2 percent from last year. Area is
estimated at 16.2 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month, and up 0.6 million or 2.9
percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 5.19 tons per hectare.
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| Jan 12 2016 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Unchanged at a Record 100 Million Tons |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean production at a record 100.0 million metric tons,
unchanged from last month and up 3.8 million tons from last year. Harvested area is unchanged
and is estimated at a record 33.3 million hectares, up 1.2 million hectares from last year. Yield is
forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, slightly above the 5-year average.
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| Nov 10 2015 | Brazil Corn: 2015/16 Production Forecast at 81.5 Million Tons |
USDA forecasts 2015/16 Brazil corn production at 81.5 million metric tons, up 1.5 million tons
from last month, but down 3.5 million tons from last year’s record. Area is forecast at 15.8
million hectares, up 0.3 million hectares from last month and up slightly from last year. Yield is
forecast at 5.16 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month. Estimated area was increased due
to improved expected returns for the second-crop corn.
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| Oct 9 2015 | Brazil Soybeans: Production at a Record 100 Million Tons |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean production at a record 100.0 million metric tons, up
3.0 million tons from last month and up 3.8 million tons from last year’s revised estimate.
Harvested area is forecast to increase by 0.8 million hectares to a record 33.3 million hectares, up
1.2 million hectares from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, slightly above the
5-year average.
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| Sep 11 2015 | Brazil Cotton: Lower Area Forecast for Upcoming Crop |
Brazil’s 2015/16 cotton production is forecast at 6.7 million bales, down 0.3 million bales or 4.3
percent from last month and down 4.3 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.93
million hectares, down 0.05 million hectares or 5.1 percent from last month, and down 5.1
percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 1,577 kilograms per hectare, slightly above
last year’s record level.
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| Jul 10 2015 | Brazil Corn: 2015/16 Production Forecast at 77 Million Tons |
USDA forecasts 2015/16 Brazil corn production at 77.0 million tons, up 2.0 million tons from
last month, but down 5.0 million tons from last year’s record. Area is forecast at 15.0 million
hectares, up 0.2 million hectares from last month but down 0.3 million hectares from last year.
Yield is forecast at 5.13 tons per hectare. USDA’s forecast of corn area increased due to
improved expected returns for the second-crop corn.
First-season corn is expected to decrease by 3 percent relative to last year because better returns
for soybeans are anticipated to increase plantings. First-season corn directly competes for land
with soybeans in the southern states of Brazil. Safrinha corn, however, follows soybeans and is planted after the soybean harvest in the Center-West region of Brazil. As soybean area increases,
more land is available for safrinha corn. Estimates of safrinha corn area for the last three years
have been underreported by local government officials. Brazilian farmers look to both prices and
the government supported auctions when making decisions about safrinha corn planting.
USDA forecasts 63 percent of the 2015/16 crop’s production will be from the safrinha crop,
higher than the 5-year average of 50 percent. As more of the total corn crop shifts to the safrinha
season the yield for Brazil increases because safrinha corn has higher yields than first-season
corn. For the last four years safrinha corn yields have been higher than average (5.13, 5.19, 5.25
and 5.66 tons per hectare) due to an extended rainy season. Typically the rainy season in the
Center-West region of Brazil ends the last week of April or the beginning of May, but recently
the rains have continued until the end of May and the beginning of June. USDA assumes normal
weather for the extent of the rainy season in 2015/16. (For more information, please contact
Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.)
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| Jul 10 2015 | Brazil Corn: Record 2014/15 Production of 82 Million Tons due to Second Crop |
USDA estimates 2014/15 Brazil corn production at a record 82.0 million tons, up 1.0 million
tons from last month, and up 2.0 million tons from the prior year. There was no change to the
area estimate of 15.3 million hectares, but area is down 3.2 percent from last year. Yield is
estimated at a record 5.36 tons per hectare due to the increase in second-season corn yields.
Brazil’s previous record corn production of 81.5 million tons was achieved in 2012/13.
Brazil has two seasons for corn production. First-season corn is planted in September and
harvested in March. A larger second-season, or safrinha crop, is expected to be 64 percent of
national production. The safrinha crop is planted after the early season soybean harvest typically
in January and February. Safrinha crop is harvested in June through August and is mostly
exported. Harvest progress is 13 percent complete in the main state of Mato Grosso.
Brazil’s safrinha corn yield is estimated at a record 5.66 tons per hectare, up 2.3 percent from
last month. Safrinha corn yield is determined chiefly by rainfall in April and May, and this year
rainfall was above normal. Satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI) for second-crop corn
indicate an excellent crop in Mato Grosso; record corn yields are expected. Goiás and Mato
Grosso do Sul are doing very well. Parana is similar to slightly below last year in biomass. (For
more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.)
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| Jun 10 2015 | Brazil Corn: 2014/15 Production Increased to Near-Record 81 Million Tons Due to Secon |
USDA/FAS forecasts 2014/15 Brazil corn production at 81.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons
from last month, and up 1.0 million from last year. Area is estimated higher at 15.3 million
hectares, up 0.3 million or from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. Yield is forecast
at a record 5.29 tons per hectare due to the increase in second-season corn yields. Brazil’s record
corn production of 81.5 million tons was achieved in 2012/13.
Brazil has two seasons for corn production. First-season corn is planted in September and
harvested in March. A larger second-season, or safrinha crop, is expected to be over 60 percent
of national production. The safrinha crop is planted after the early season soybean harvest,
typically in January and February. The safrinha crop is harvested in June through August and is
mostly exported. Harvesting has just begun.
Early expectations were that second-corn area would decline precipitously due to low prices;
however, area declined by 2 percent nationally. In Mato Grosso, however, the area increased
from last year despite low prices. Mato Grosso is the largest producer, accounting for 34 percent
of the safrinha crop. Planting of second-crop corn began in February 2015 and the planted area
was achieved despite the concerns due to the late harvested soybean crop.
Brazil’s safrinha corn yields are determined chiefly by rainfall in April and May and they
received beneficial rainfall. Satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI) for second-crop corn are
excellent in Mato Grosso; record corn yields are expected. Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are
doing very well. Indicies in Parana are similar to slightly below last year. For the last three years
second-crop corn yields have been high (5.13, 5.19 and 5.25 tons per hectare) because the rainy
season extended into late May and June. This year’s second-crop corn yield is estimated at a
record 5.55 tons per hectare.
(For more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.)
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| May 12 2015 | Brazil Soybeans: 2015/16 Production at a Record 97 Million Tons |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean production at a record 97.0 million tons, up 2.5
million tons or 2.6 percent from last year. Harvested area is expected to increase 3.2 percent to a
record 32.5 million hectares, up 1.0 million hectares from last year. Area has increased for nine
consecutive years, but this year’s increase is the smallest since 2012/13. Although soybean prices
are lower than last year, profitability remains high due to the devaluation of Brazil’s currency.
Soybean area is increasing across Brazil but each region has specific drivers. Traditional areas
(the southern states) are expected to increase soybean area because the relative profitability of
soybeans are high compared to first-season corn and first-season cotton. Center-West states are
forecast to continue expansion due to conversion of pasture. The Maranhao-Piaui-Tocantins
(MaPiTo) region is expected to increase soybean area because land is less expensive.
Brazil’s soybean yield is forecast at 2.98 tons per hectare, slightly lower than last year but above
the 5-year average. Yields at the national level are relatively stable. Regionally, traditional
soybean growing areas (the southern states, which account for 47 percent of national output)
have volatile yields due to the influence of droughts, as does the MaPiTo region (6 percent).
Center-West areas (47 percent) have a more stable climate and relatively stable yields. Planting
of Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean crop begins in September 2015 and the main harvest months are
February and March 2016.
(For more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.)
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| May 12 2015 | Brazil Corn: Estimated 2014/15 Production Increased Due to Record Second Crop |
USDA forecasts Brazil corn production for 2014/15 at 78.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons or
4.0 percent from last month, but down 2.0 million tons or 2.5 percent from last year. Estimated
area is unchanged at 15.0 million hectares, down 0.8 million hectares or 5.1 percent from last
year. Yield is forecast at a record 5.20 tons per hectare due to the increase in second-season corn
yields.
Brazil has two seasons for corn production. First-season corn is planted in September and
harvested in March. A larger second-season, or safrinha crop, is expected to be over 60 percent
of national production. The safrinha
crop is planted after the early season
soybean harvest, typically in January
and February. The safrinha crop is
harvested from June through August
and is mostly exported.
Brazil’s second-season corn yield is
forecast at a record 5.44 tons per
hectare. Precipitation has been above
average in the main producing states of
Mato Grosso, Goias, Mato Grosso do
Sul and Parana. The precipitation and
cool night-time temperatures benefitted
corn as it advanced through flowering
and early grain-fill stages. Vegetation
health, as measured by satellite-derived
indices, indicate biomass above
average, and in some places above last
year’s impressive corn yields. Brazil’s safrinha corn yields are determined chiefly by rainfall in
April and May. For the past three years, second-crop corn yields have been high (5.13, 5.19 and
5.25 tons per hectare) because the rainy season extended into late May and June. Farmers plant
as early as possible after the soybean harvest to mitigate risks of an early ending of the rainy
season. Corn conditions in Mato Grosso are better than last year and much improved in Goias
despite being delayed. (For more information, please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.)
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| Apr 9 2015 | Brazil Corn: Production Unchanged at 75 Million Tons; Second Crop Planted |
USDA forecasts Brazil corn production for 2014/15 at 75.0 million tons, unchanged from last
month, but down 5.0 million tons from last year. Area is estimated at 15.0 million hectares,
unchanged from last month, but down 0.8 million hectares from last year. Yield is forecast at
5.00 tons per hectare, down 1.2 percent from last year. A decrease in the first-season crop
estimate was offset by an increase in the second-season forecast.
First-season corn is planted in September and harvested in March. A larger second-season, or
safrinha crop, is expected to be over 60 percent of national production. The safrinha crop is
planted after the early season soybean harvest typically in January and February. The safrinha
crop is harvested in June through August and is mostly exported.
Early expectations were that second-corn area would decline precipitously due to low prices,
but the sharp depreciation in the exchange rate in early 2015 has improved the economic
outlook for corn. Area has not declined as much as previously estimated. The planting of
second-crop corn began in February 2015 and the expected planted area was achieved despite
the late harvested soybean crop. Mato Grosso is the largest producer of the safrinha crop which
accounts for 34 percent. Other key areas are the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and
Goiás.
Early season satellite-derived vegetation indices indicate conditions are very good in Mato
Grosso, but Goias and Mato Grosso do Sul may be experiencing late planting and will need to
be monitored further. Brazil’s safrinha corn yields are determined chiefly by rainfall in April
and May. For the last three years, second-crop corn yields have been high because the rainy
season extended into late May and June. Farmers plant as early as possible after the soybean
harvest to mitigate risks of an early ending of the rainy season. (For more information, please
contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.)
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| Mar 10 2015 | Brazil Wheat: Production Reduced to 5.9 Million Tons |
USDA estimates Brazil’s 2014/15
wheat production at 5.9 million tons,
down 6.3 percent from last month but
up 0.6 million tons or 11 percent from
last year. Area is forecast at a near
record 2.73 million hectares, up 5.0
percent from last month and up 0.5
million hectares or 24 percent from last
year. Yield is forecast at 2.16 tons per
hectare, down 11 percent from last
month. Brazil’s wheat has been
harvested. The month-to-month yield
change is based on harvest data from
official sources. (For more information,
please contact Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov).
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| Feb 11 2015 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Decrease Due to Dry January Weather |
USDA estimates 2014/15 Brazil soybean production at a record 94.5 million metric tons, down
1.0 million from last month but up 7.8 million tons or 9.0 percent from last year. Harvested area
is estimated at a record 31.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 1.4 million or
4.7 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.00 tons per hectare, down 1.0 percent from
last month.
Brazil’s soybean yields have decreased due to drier weather in Goias, Minas Gerais and southern
Bahia. These states account for roughly 18 percent of Brazil’s soybean production. Rio Grande
do Sul has experienced above normal rainfall and potential increase in yields that should help
offset some of the losses in the drier areas. Soybean harvest is now 6 to 8 percent complete, with
the bulk of the harvest to occur in February. (For more information, please contact
Robert.Tetrault@fas.usda.gov.)
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| Jan 12 2015 | Brazil Soybeans: Production at a Record 95.5 Million Tons; Higher Yield |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean production at a record 95.5 million tons, up 1.5
million from last month and up 8.8 million tons from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a
record 31.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.4 million hectares from last
year. Yield is forecast at 3.03 tons per hectare, up 1.6 percent from last month and up 5.2
percent from last year.
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| Dec 10 2014 | Brazil Cotton: Production at 7.0 Million Bales, Unchanged from last Month |
Brazil’s 2014/15 cotton production
is forecast at 7.0 million bales,
unchanged from last month but
down 1.0 million bales or 13 percent
from last year. Harvested area is
forecast at 1.0 million hectares,
unchanged from last month but
down 0.12 million hectares or 11
percent from last year. Yield is
forecast at 1524 kilograms per
hectare (kg/ha), above the 5-year
average yield of 1457 kg/ha.
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| Dec 10 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Production at a Record 94 Million Tons, Unchanged from last Month |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean production at a record 94.0 million tons, unchanged
from last month and up 7.3 million tons or 8.4 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast
at a record 31.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.4 million hectares or 4.7
percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.98 tons per hectare. Yields are expected to recover
from the drought and heat that affected southern Brazil in 2013/14.
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| Sep 12 2013 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production due to Increased Planting Prospects |
The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at a record 88.0 million tons, up 3.0
million tons or 3.5 percent from last month and up 6.0 million tons or 6.8 percent from last year.
Harvested area is forecast at a record 28.9 million hectares, up 0.65 million hectares from last
month and up 1.2 million hectares or 4.3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.04 tons
per hectare, an increase of less than1.2 percent from last month and close to trend yield.
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| Sep 11 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production of 94 Million Tons |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean production at a record 94.0 million tons, up 3.0
million or 3.3 percent from last month and up 7.3 million tons or 8.4 percent from last year’s
revised estimate. Harvested area is forecast at a record 31.5 million hectares, up 1.0 million
hectares from last month and up 1.4 million or 4.7 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at
2.98 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month.
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| Jan 10 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Record Production due to Increased Planting Prospects |
The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at a record 89.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1.1 percent from last month and up 7.0 million tons or 8.5 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 29.5 million hectares, up 0.4 million hectares from last month and up 1.8 million or 6.4 percent from last year. Yield is unchanged at 3.02 tons per hectare. Estimated area is adjusted up slightly as planting comes to an end. Planting began in mid-September and was nearly finished by the end of December. Brazilian farmers increased soybean area because of higher expected profits—area is up 6.4 percent from last year’s record area.
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| Feb 10 2014 | Brazil Wheat: Production Up Due to Good Yields in Rio Grande do Sul |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 wheat production at 5.30 million tons, up 0.55 million or 12 percent from last month and up 2.85 million tons or 21 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.2 million hectares, no change from last month and up 0.3 million hectares or 16 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.41 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), up from 2.16 MT/Ha last month and 2.32 MT/Ha last year. Early in the season, a cold snap damaged the crop in Parana and yields were down as expected. Parana represents nearly 40 percent of the national total production. Weather conditions were favorable for the crop in Rio Grande do Sul. Similar to Parana, Rio Grande do Sul also produces nearly 40 percent of the total production, and, this year’s higher-than-expected yields offset the losses in Parana.
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| Feb 10 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Reported High Yields in Mato Grosso Offset Potential Loss in the Sou |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at a record 90.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1.1 percent from last month and up 8.0 million tons or 9.8 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 29.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.8 million hectares or 6.5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.05 tons per hectare. Currently, the soybean crop condition in Rio Grande do Sul is reportedly very good. Yields are anticipated higher than last year. Soybeans are just past flowering stage, so precipitation during the next 2 weeks is crucial for pod fill. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 16 percent of the total soy production. Sources continue to report positive news from Mato Grosso. About 12 percent of Mato Grosso’s soybeans have been harvested and reports indicate early maturing soybeans are producing above-average yields. Mato Grosso is expected to produce as much as 28 percent of the total national production. Though treatment is costly, farmers are successfully controlling Asiatic soybean rust and Old World bollworm. The main concerns are excessive heat and dryness in southern Brazil (Sao Paulo, Parana, Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul).
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| Feb 10 2014 | Brazil Wheat: Production Up Due to Good Yields in Rio Grande do Sul |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 wheat production at 5.30 million tons, up 0.55 million or 12 percent from last month and up 2.85 million tons or 21 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.2 million hectares, no change from last month and up 0.3 million hectares or 16 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.41 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), up from 2.16 MT/Ha last month and 2.32 MT/Ha last year. Early in the season, a cold snap damaged the crop in Parana and yields were down as expected. Parana represents nearly 40 percent of the national total production. Weather conditions were favorable for the crop in Rio Grande do Sul. Similar to Parana, Rio Grande do Sul also produces nearly 40 percent of the total production, and, this year’s higher-than-expected yields offset the losses in Parana.
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| Feb 10 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Reported High Yields in Mato Grosso Offset Potential Loss in the Sou |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at a record 90.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1.1 percent from last month and up 8.0 million tons or 9.8 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 29.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.8 million hectares or 6.5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.05 tons per hectare. Currently, the soybean crop condition in Rio Grande do Sul is reportedly very good. Yields are anticipated higher than last year. Soybeans are just past flowering stage, so precipitation during the next 2 weeks is crucial for pod fill. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 16 percent of the total soy production. Sources continue to report positive news from Mato Grosso. About 12 percent of Mato Grosso’s soybeans have been harvested and reports indicate early maturing soybeans are producing above-average yields. Mato Grosso is expected to produce as much as 28 percent of the total national production. Though treatment is costly, farmers are successfully controlling Asiatic soybean rust and Old World bollworm. The main concerns are excessive heat and dryness in southern Brazil (Sao Paulo, Parana, Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul).
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| Mar 10 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Hot and Dry Weather Reduces Yield Potential in the South |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at 88.5 million tons, down 1.5 million or 1.7 percent from last month but up 6.5 million tons or 7.9 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 29.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.8 million hectares or 6.4 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.0 tons per hectare, down 1.7 percent
from last month due to the hot and dry conditions in southern Brazil. About 40 percent of Brazil’s soybean production was subject to extremely hot and dry conditions. States affected were Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais, and soybean potential yield was reduced. Some soybean regions had temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius for 17 days. Rains arrived by mid-February, providing much needed relief.
Parana soybeans were at late reproductive crop stages during the hot and dry period and were the most affected, with yield prospects down significantly. Preliminary assessments estimate the damage at over 1 million tons. In Rio Grande do Sul, soybeans were in flowering and early reproductive crop stages. Although aborted flowers and pods have been reported, rains may have aided in the recovery.
Meanwhile in Mato Grosso, soybean harvesting is continuing at an above-average pace – about 60 percent has been harvested. Short-cycle soybean varieties have had higher yields than expected. Record soybean yields are reported. The harvest for the longer-cycle soybeans was interrupted by heavy rains in late February, causing some quality damage.
Nationally, yields are estimated at 3.02 tons per hectare, down from 3.05 tons per hectare estimated from last month, but up from 2.96 tons per hectare estimated for last year. Despite concerns about Asiatic soybean rust and old world bollworm, farmers have been well-equipped to handle these pests, albeit at higher costs.
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| Apr 9 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Excessive Rain in Mato Grosso at Harvest Lowers Yield |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean production at 87.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 1.1 percent from last month but up 5.5 million tons or 6.7 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 29.9 million hectares, up 0.4 million hectares from last month and up 2.2 million hectares or 7.9 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.93 tons per hectare, down 3.9 percent from last month due to the hot and dry conditions in the south.
Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 73 percent as of the end of March, faster than the 5-year average of 64 percent. Soybean yield potential decreased due to dryness in the south and too much rain at harvest in Mato Grosso. About 40 percent of Brazil’s soybean production was subject to extremely hot and dry conditions in early February. States affected were Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais states. Rains arrived by mid-February and rain has continued in March providing much needed relief, especially in Rio Grande do Sul. In the other states, however, soybean yield potential did not recover.
Meanwhile in Mato Grosso, the harvest pace for the longer-cycle soybeans was interrupted by heavy rains in late February and continuing into March causing yield losses, some qualitydamage and delays to planting safrinha corn. Harvest is nearly complete and sources have backed off the previously forecasted record state yields, but yields remain above average.
Brazil’s soybean area increased to 29.9 million hectares due to second-crop soybeans. Mato Grosso is planting second-crop soybeans for the first time. Soybeans following soybeans directly in rotation are at higher risk for increasing pest pressures such as Asiatic rust, whiteflies, and Oldworld bollworm. Second-crop soybeans are planted in February and harvested 90 to 100 days later, well before the mid-June, soybean-free period starts. The period from June to mid-September is soybean-free to lower the inoculum sources for Asiatic rust. Yield potential for second-crop soybeans is considered low and estimates range between 2 and 2.5 tons per hectare.
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| Apr 9 2014 | Brazil Corn: Rains Improve Yield Potential for Second Crop |
FAS forecasts Brazil corn production for 2013/14 at 72.0 million tons, up 2 million from last month or 2.9 percent, but down 9.5 million tons or 12 percent from last year’s revised record. Area is estimated at 14.7 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 1.1 million hectares or 7.0 percent from last year. Corn yield is forecast at 4.90 tons per hectare, up 2.9 percent from last month, but down 5.0 percent from the revised record level of 5.16 tons per hectare last year.
Production is raised due to better yield potential for safrinha (second-crop) corn. Planting of second-crop corn began in February 2014. Mato Gross is the largest producer, about 42 percent of the safrinha crop, and other key areas are Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias. All areas have been receiving beneficial, above-average precipitation. Planting in Mato Grosso was delayed due to heavy rains in late February.
Vegetation health, as measured by satellite-derived vegetation indices, indicates biomass similar to last year in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias. So far, Mato Grosso is not developing as well as last year. The critical flowering and grain-fill stages for the second-crop corn will occur in late April to early May. Rainfall during these months will be a key factor to final yields.
Corn area is down 7 percent or 1.1 million hectares from last year. First-corn area is lower by 0.4 and second-corn area is down by 0.7 million hectares. Farmers reduced first-corn area because soybeans have more favorable price and profitability outlooks. For second-corn area in Mato Grosso, low internal corn prices and increased costs of production resulted in corn becoming unprofitable. Second-crop corn area is expected to be reduced by more than 20 percent in the state. Nationally, second-season corn production is typically exported and first-season corn is used for livestock.
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| May 9 2014 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Forecast at a Record 91 Million Tons |
USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean production at a record 91.0 million tons, an increase of 4 percent from 87.5 million tons in 2013/14. Harvested area is forecast at a record 30.5 million hectares, up 0.6 million hectares or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.98 tons per hectare, slightly better than the 5-year average.
Harvested area is expected to continue to increase for 2014/15, albeit at a more moderate pace. Area is expected to increase marginally in most well established soybean growing regions. The conversion of pasture land to soybean area continues, but higher purchase and rental prices for land combined with expected lower soybean prices, will limit expansion. In newer areas of Maranhão, Piaui, Tocantins, and northeastern Mato Grosso, conversion of pasture and native savannah (“cerrado”) continues to add soybean area. This frontier area will benefit the most from investment in transportation infrastructure connecting to the northern ports.
Another expansion area for Brazilian soybeans is north of the equator in Roraima and Amapá states, with Amapá having the distinct advantage of proximity to Atlantic ports. Soybeans in these areas are planted in May and harvested in September similar to other northern hemisphere soybeans.
Yields have traditionally been volatile in the southern states of Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, and Mato Grosso do Sul. In Mato Grosso, where more than 25 percent of Brazil’s soybeans are grown, yields are more stable. Mato Grosso soybean yields, however, have shown below-trend growth, probably due to the preference of short-cycle soybean varieties. The earlier-harvested soybeans are preferred so that a second crop of cotton or corn can be planted immediately following the soybean harvest.
Planting for the 2014/15 crop will begin in mid-September. Production costs have steadily increased with additional pest pressures such as Asiatic rust and Helicoverpa corn earworm. Current soybean prices are high, but not as high as recent years. Prices in the months leading up to planting will be critical to expansion plans.
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| Apr 10 2013 | Brazil Corn: Estimated Yield Increases Following Good Rainfall |
The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts Brazil corn production for 2012/13 at a record 74.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 1.0 million tons or 1 percent from the previous record in 2011/12. Area is estimated at a record 15.5 million hectares, no change from last month but up 300,000 hectares or 2 percent from last year. Total corn yield is forecast at 4.77 tons per hectare, higher than the 5-year average, but short of last year’s record yield of 4.80 tons per hectare.
Brazilian corn yield increased due to beneficial and consistent rains since late February for the Safrinha crop in Mato Grosso, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. The Safrinha corn yield potential in Mato Grosso is determined by the length of the rainy season. Last year the rainy season in Mato Grosso extended through June and record yields for Safrinha corn were achieved. The rainy season typically ends in mid to late April.
Brazil has two seasons for corn production. First season corn is planted in September and harvested in March. Production largely serves the domestic feed market. A larger secondseason, or Safrinha crop, accounts for more than 54 percent of national production. The Safrinha crop is planted after the early-season soybean harvest. Mato Grosso is the largest producer, accounting for 40 percent. Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, taken together, produce over 40 percent. In Mato Grosso rain caused minor delays in harvesting of the early soybean varieties but farmers were able to harvest the soybeans and plant the Safrinha corn. Corn planting was finished in Mato Grosso by mid March. Ideally they would have finished by early March. The southern states of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul plant corn later than in Mato Grosso. Corn planting in Paraná was essentially complete by the end of March. (For more information, call Bob Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)
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| Feb 8 2013 | Brazil Corn: Estimated Yield Increases Following Good Rainfall |
The USDA forecasts Brazil corn production for 2012/13 at 72.5 million tons, up 1.5 million or 2 percent from last month, but down 0.5 million tons or less than 1 percent from last year’s record production. Area is estimated at a record 15.5 million hectares, no change from last month, but up 300 thousand or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 4.68 tons per hectare, up 12 percent compared to the 5-year average. Yield prospects for Brazil’s first season corn have improved due to good grain-fill conditions in the key states of Paraná and Goiás. Conditions are mixed in Rio Grande do Sul. Weather in late February will be a key determinant of yield potential for that state. Brazil has a larger second-season, or safrinha crop, which accounts for more than 54 percent of national production. The safrinha crop is planted in January after the early-season soybean harvest. In late January 2013 analysts from the Foreign Agricultural Service traveled through Mato Grosso’s main safrinha producing state. Rain in Mato Grosso is causing some delays in harvesting of the early soybean varieties but farmers are able to harvest the soybeans and plant the safrinha corn. Corn planting can extend to the beginning of March in Mato Grosso but farmers are anxious to plant right now because the earlier planted corn has higher yield potential. The safrinha yield potential is determined by the length of the rainy season. Last year the rainy season in Mato Grosso extended through June, and record yields for safrinha corn were achieved. The rainy season typically ends in mid to late April. (For more information, contact Bob Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)
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| Feb 8 2013 | Brazil Soybeans: Estimated Yield Increases Following Good Rainfall |
The USDA forecasts Brazil soybean production for 2012/13 at 83.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1 percent from last month and up 17.0 million or 26 percent from last year’s drought-reduced crop. Area is estimated at a record 27.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 2.5 million hectares or 10 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.04 tons per hectare, compared to 2.66 tons last year and the 5-year average of 2.85 tons. Yield prospects for Brazil soybeans have improved due to good early-season conditions in the key states of Mato Grosso, Parana and Bahia. In late January 2013 analysts from the Foreign Agricultural Service traveled through Brazil’s main soybean producing state, Mato Grosso, and a key swing state, Bahia. Soybean crop conditions in both states were observed to be very good. Harvesting of the early soybean varieties has started in Mato Grosso, and soybean yields are reported by contacts in the region to be as good as last year. In Bahia contacts are expecting soybean yields to be significantly better compared to the drought induced lower yields of last year. Rains during the harvest of the early season varieties in Mato Grosso are causing some delays and may affect the quality of the early soybeans, but the rains are boosting yield potential for the medium and long-cycle soybeans. The main soybean harvest in Mato Grosso will commence in late February. Brazilian farmers enthusiastically reacted to high soybean prices this year and increased area 10 percent to a record 27.5 million hectares. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soybeans, surpassing the United States this year when the United States suffered its worst drought in 50 years. (For more information, contact Bob Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)
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| Jan 11 2013 | Brazil Soybeans: Estimated Yield Increases Following Beneficial Rainfall |
The USDA forecasts Brazil soybean production for 2012/13 at 82.5 million tons, up 1.5 million, or 2 percent, from last month and up 16.0 million, or 24 percent, from last year’s drought-affected crop. Area is estimated at 27.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 2.5 million hectares, or 10 percent, from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.00 tons per hectare, compared to 2.66 tons per hectare last year and the five-year average of 2.85 tons per hectare.
Yield prospects for Brazil soybeans have increased due to good early-season conditions in the key states of Mato Grosso and Parana. Soybean crop stages vary considerably across the country. The harvest of the early varieties in Mato Grosso has begun as the last of the soybean planting in Brazil is finishing. Brazilian farmers reacted enthusiastically to high soybean prices this year and increased area by 10 percent to a record 27.5 million hectares. Brazil is forecasted to be the world’s largest producer of soybeans, surpassing the United States this year when the United States suffered through its worst drought in 50 years. (For more information, contact Bob Tetrault at 202-720-1071.)
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| Sep 12 2012 | Brazil Soybean: 2011/12 Harvest Complete |
Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is estimated at 66.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month and down 9.0 million or 12 percent from the previous year. Area is estimated at a record 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from the previous year. Yield is estimated at 2.66 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and down 15 percent from the previous year’s record yield of 3.12 tons per hectare. Estimated soybean production was raised by 1 million tons this month due to better than expected harvest reports from the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso. This year’s soybean yields were lower than the previous year even though La Niña events occurred during both years. A severe La Niña drought this year reduced yields by more than 30 percent in the southern state of Paraná and by more than 40 percent in Rio Grande do Sul. (For more information, please contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Aug 10 2012 | Brazil Soybeans and Corn: Record Area Expected for Brazil’s Upcoming Season |
The USDA forecasts Brazil’s total soybean production for 2012/13 at a record 81.0 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month and up 15.5 million tons or 24 percent greater than last year’s drought reduced crop. Total harvested soybean area is forecast at 27.5 million hectares, up 1.0 million from last month and up 2.5 million or 10 percent from last year. Brazil’s total corn production for 2012/13 is forecast at 70.0 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month but down 2.8 million tons from last year’s bumper harvest. Total harvested area is forecast at 16.0 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.8 million from last year.The recent U.S. drought resulted in record prices for soybean and corn during July and August 2012. Brazilian farmers in the southern hemisphere are expected to respond to the high prices by planting record soybean and corn area during the next several months. The favorable soybean corn price ratios should motivate Brazilian farmers to plant more soybeans during September-December, with first-season corn area expected to be less than last year. However, a record second-season corn area is expected to be planted from January-February to compensate for the reduced first-season corn area.The trend for corn area in Brazil is to plant more second-season corn, with next year’s second-season corn area expected to exceed the first-corn season corn area for the first time. In addition, Brazilian farmers in the Midwest and Northeast are adding more irrigation systems which reduce drought risks, increase yields, and increase crop area with double and triple cropping potential. (For more information, contact Dr. Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Jun 12 2012 | Brazil Cotton: Low World Cotton Prices Reduces Incentive to Plant 2012/13 Cotton |
Brazil’s 2012/13 cotton production is forecast at 7.0 million bales, down 1.0 million from last month and down 2.1 million or 23 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 1.075 million hectares, down 0.125 million hectares from last month and down 0.325 million hectares or 23 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1418 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), or close to the five-year average yield of 1426 kg/ha. Because of steadily falling cotton prices, farmers in Brazil are forecast to plant less cotton and plant more competing crops such as corn or soybeans. Cotton planting will begin in December. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0314.)
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| May 10 2012 | Brazil Soybeans: 2011/12 Harvest Nearly Complete |
Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is estimated at 65.0 million tons, down 1.0 million tons from last month and down 10.5 million or 14 percent from last year. Area is estimated at a record 25 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.60 tons per hectare, down 2 percent from last month and down 10 percent from the 5-year average.Brazil’s soybean harvest is 97 percent completed. The last states to harvest are Bahia with 85 percent harvest completed and Rio Grande do Sul with 93 percent complete. Soybean production was lowered by 1 million tons this month due to lower than expected harvest reports in the states of Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul.This year’s soybean yields will be lower than last year’s record yields for most states in Brazil, even though both years occurred during La Niña events. A severe La Niña drought this year reduced yields by more than 30 percent in the southern state of Paraná and by more than 40 percent in Rio Grande do Sul. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0314.)
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| May 10 2012 | Brazil Corn: Record 2011/12 Production Expected |
Brazil’s total corn production for 2011/12 is estimated at a record 67 million tons, up 5 million from last month and up 9.6 million or 17 percent from last year. Total harvested area for 2011/12 is estimated at 15.7 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month and up 1.9 million or 14 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 4.27 tons per hectare, which is above the 5-year average yield of 3.94 tons.Total corn production was increased by 5 million tons this month due to a 400,000 hectares increase in the second season corn area and favorable rains from mid-March through April. Below average rainfall in the south from November through February reduced main-season corn production to approximately 36 million tons, but main-season drought losses should be fully compensated with a record secondseason forecast of approximately 31 million tons, or 46 percent of total output.Over 70 percent of the second-season corn crop is in the pollination and grain-filling stages, with the development most advanced in the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso where harvest will begin soon. Second-season output is expected to reach record levels in Paraná and Mato Grosso with states producing approximately 10.0 and 11.7 million tons, respectively. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0314.)
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| Apr 10 2012 | Brazil Soybeans: Harvest Nears Completion with Lower than Expected Yields |
Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is estimated at 66.0 million tons, down 2.0 million tons from last month and down 10 million or 13 percent from last year. Area is estimated at a record 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.64 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month and down 9 percent from the 5-year average.The soybean harvest pace is advancing quickly in Brazil with over 75 percent of the national crop harvested by the beginning of this month, 32 percent of the crop harvested in Rio Grande do Sul, and harvest completed in the top-producing state of Mato Grosso. Soybean yields for most states in Brazil are expected to be lower than last year’s record crop. A La Nina induced drought reduced yields by nearly 30 percent from last year in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. In Mato Grosso, reported harvested yields are lower than last year due to losses caused by soybean rust. In the Northeastern state of Bahia, yields were reduced due to a dry spell from mid-February through mid-March, when the crop was in critical growth stages. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0314.)
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| Mar 15 2012 | Brazil Soybeans: Estimated Yield Continues to Fall |
Brazil soybean production for 2011/12 is forecast at 68.5 million tons, down 3.5 million from last month and down 7.0 million or 9 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year.Yield is forecast at 2.74 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from both last month and the 5-year average. Drought from December through February significantly reduced yield prospects in the southern states, and favorable yields in the center-west and northeastern states will not compensate the considerable losses in the south.The harvest pace is advancing quickly with 35 percent of the crop harvested by the beginning of March, approximately 10 percent ahead of last year’s pace. The harvest in the south is advancing more rapidly than last year due to severe drought that caused the crop to wilt and die before pods completely filled or matured. Harvest reports of low yields in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Santa Catarina have reduced national output estimates by over 6 million tons from initial forecast projections. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Mar 15 2012 | Brazil Corn: Second-Season Crop Will Offset First-Season Drought Losses |
Brazil corn production for 2011/12 is forecast at a record 62.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month and up 4.5 million or 8 percent from last year. The month-to-month increase is attributed to an increase in the estimated area of second-season corn. Total harvested area is forecast at 15.3 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month and up 1.5 million or 11 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 4.05 tons per hectare, which is slightly above the 5-year average of 3.95 tons per hectare.The southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana received below-average rainfall from November through February, which reduced yield prospects for main-season corn. Record area and favorable yield prospects for second-season corn, however, are expected to fully offset main-season losses. Output of second-season corn is forecast to comprise about 42 percent of Brazil’s total corn crop, compared to 38 percent last year.Planting for second-season corn began in January, and the first week of March is considered the cut-off date for planting. Current conditions for the second-season crop are good. The greatest potential risk to the second-season crop would be an early end to rains in April. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Feb 9 2012 | Drought in Southern Brazil Reduces 2011/12 Soybean Production Forecast |
Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is forecast at 72 million tons, down 2 million tons from last month and down 3.5 million or 5 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 25 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.88 tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last month due to below-average rainfall in the south from November through January. Above-average rainfall during October gave nearly ideal planting conditions for most of Brazil. The planting pace was ahead of the 5-year average throughout the planting season, with most of the crop planted by the end of December. However, below-average rainfall in the south from November through January reduced potential yields and state crop estimating agencies for Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul reduced state production forecasts by nearly 5 million tons. Crop losses from the drought in the south will be partially compensated by above-average yields in the states of Mato Grosso, Goáis, Minas Gerais, and the northeastern states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia (or the MATOPIBA region), but overall the southern drought will reduce national output by several million tons. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0314.)
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| Jan 12 2012 | Drought in Southern Brazil Reduces 2011/12 Soybean Production Forecast |
Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is forecast at 74 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 1.5 million or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.96 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month due to below-average rainfall in the south during November and December. Area is forecast at a record 25 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. The planting pace was ahead of the 5-year average throughout the planting season, with most of the crop planted by the end of December.Above-average rainfall during October gave nearly ideal planting conditions for most of Brazil. However, below-average rainfall in the south during December reduced potential yields, especially in regions that were planted early where crop stage was in the critical flowering and pod-filling stages during December’s drought.Harvesting started this month in Parana, the second-largest soybean producing state, which reported below-average yields in the early-planted regions located in the western and southwestern portions of the state. DERAL, the state crop estimating agency for Parana, also reduced their soybean production forecast this month by 1.4 million tons (from 14.1 to 12.7 MT) due to December’s drought and low reported harvested yields in western Parana. In contrast, seasonal rainfall was beneficial in central and northeastern parts of Brazil. Mato Grosso, the largest soybean producing state in the central west, is expecting a record soybean harvest of 22.2 million tons and above last year’s record crop of 20.4 million tons. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds, PhD, at 202-690-0134.)
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| Nov 9 2011 | Brazil Soybean: Favorable Planting Conditions Increase Yield Prospects for 2011/12 |
Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is forecast at 75.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and down 0.5 million or 1 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.0 tons per hectare, slightly below last year’s record yield and adjusted towards the 10-year trend yield due to favorable planting conditions and high investments in inputs. Beneficial early seasonal rainfall have made planting conditions nearly ideal throughout Brazil, with rains arriving two weeks early in Bahia state and the Mapito (Maranhão, Piauí, and Tocantins) region. Planting progress in Mato Grosso, the top producing state, is more than 60 percent complete and more than 20 percent ahead of the five year average. The main soybean planting month for Brazil is November with most planting activities to be completed by the end of December. Early soybean planting and attractive corn prices are encouraging farmers in Parana and Mato Grosso states to plant second-season corn behind the harvested soy. Shortseason soybean varieties with improved yield potential continue to gain popularity in these states because they are less susceptible to rust and can be followed with second-season corn or cotton crops. The La Niña weather forecast could adversely affect yield forecasts for soybeans in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, although last year’s La Niña produced record yields from below average rainfall with favorable temporal distribution during the growing season. (For additional information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Sep 14 2011 | Brazil Corn: High Prices Result in Higher Corn Area Forecast |
Corn area is expected to increase for both summer and winter season corn crops in Brazil due to high prices as summer crop planting begins. Total harvested area for 2011/12 is forecast at 14.5 million hectares, up 0.7 million from last year and slightly below the record area of 14.7 million. Yield is forecast at 4.21 tons per hectare, up 1 percent from last year’s drought-reduced crop. Brazil’s total corn production for 2011/12 is forecast at 61.0 million tons, up 4.0 million from last month and up 3.5 million or 6 percent from last year. Planting has begun for the summer or first-season crop in southern Brazil, with 7 percent of the crop planted in Parana. Recent warm temperatures and good rainfall have also allowed planting to start in Rio Grande do Sul. Planting of corn for the winter or second-season safrinha crop in central Brazil will begin in mid-January 2012, with area forecast at 250,000-500,000 hectares above last year’s record of 5.86 million. However, the planted area forecast for the second-season crop could change as corn prices and production costs will be different at planting time after mid-January, 2012. (For more information, please contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Aug 12 2011 | Brazil Corn: Production Forecast Higher on Area Increase |
Brazil’s 2011/12 corn production is forecast at 57.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month and last year. Planting begins next month for the upcoming season and area is forecast at 13.5 million hectares, up 0.5 million from last month. Domestic corn prices have been rising recently and over the last year, and industry analysts have been increasing their forecasts for the crop. The rising prices have pushed expected returns for corn above those of soybeans in some regions. Prices for cotton have declined recently and some of the area going to corn is likely to come from that crop. (For more information contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Aug 12 2011 | Brazil Cotton: 2010/11 Yields Down due to Second-Season Drought |
Brazil’s 2010/11 cotton production is estimated at 8.50 million bales, down 0.80 million bales or 9 percent from last month but up 3.05 million bales or 56 percent from 2009/10. Harvested area is estimated at 1.40 million hectares, up 0.01 million from last month. Yield is estimated at 1322 kilograms per hectare, down 9 percent from last month and below the five-year average yield of 1389 kilograms per hectare.Early cotton harvest reports from Mato Grosso, where approximately 50 percent of the nation’s cotton is grown, indicate reduced yields from last year due to drought and early cessation of rains at the end of the growing season. Approximately 70 percent of the national cotton crop typically is harvested by the beginning of August, but harvest progress is behind schedule, especially in the largest cotton producing state, Mato Grosso.The earlier enthusiasm to plant more cotton area for the upcoming 2011/12 crop season has recently been dampened due to falling cotton prices; improved returns from competing crops such as corn and soybeans; and low 2010/11 yields. Some industry analysts have reported 2011/12 cotton area could be reduced by as much as 10 percent. Cotton planting for Brazil’s main season is from October through December and then followed by the second season from January through February. (For more information contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Jun 13 2011 | Brazil: Soybean Ending Up as a Record Year |
Soybean production for 2010/11 is estimated at 74.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month (2 percent), and up 5.5 million (8 percent) compared to last year. Harvested area is estimated at 24.2 million hectares (ha), down 0.05 million ha (0.2 percent) from last month, and up 0.7 million (3 percent) compared to 2009/10. Yield is estimated at 3.08 tons per hectare (T/ha), up 0.07 T/ha (2 percent) from last month, and up 0.14 T/ha (5 percent) compared to 2009/10. Favorable prices have pushed the Brazil crop to a record planted area. Excellent weather with abundant rain has provided for very good yields. (For more information, contact Bill Baker at 202-260-8109.)
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| May 11 2011 | Strong Prices Lead to Rise in Total Foreign Corn Prospects |
Total foreign corn production for the 2011/12 marketing year is forecast at a record 525 million tons, up 5 percent from 2010/11. Area is also forecast at a record 131.7 million hectares, up 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a near-trend 3.98 tons per hectare at the beginning of the season in the Northern Hemisphere.Strong world prices have encouraged planting in many countries. US#3 corn FOB Gulf averaged US$255 per ton from November-to-January when many farmers were making their planting decisions. November-to-January prices are up from US$180 last year and US$137 for the 9-year average. A drop in total coarse grain and wheat production in 2010/11 caused by weather problems which led to lower-than-trend yields has resulted in a tightness in stock levels contributing to the high prices. The price rise is partly attributed to strong demand in Asia for corn to feed livestock, but also strong demand in the United States as a feed stock for producing ethanol to blend with gasoline. (For additional information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)
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| Apr 8 2011 | Brazil Soybeans: Strong Harvest in the South Boosts Outturn |
Brazil soybean production for 2010/11 is estimated at a record 72.0 million tons, 2.0 million higher than last month. Yield is estimated at 2.97 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last month, while area is unchanged. Output is increased based on new official estimates from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture. Favorable weather in southern Brazil has allowed harvest progress to accelerate and reach 80 percent completion in the state of Parana as of April 6. Despite drier than normal conditions during the growing season in Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall was timely, producers used fertilizer and pesticides beneficially, and yields are estimated above last year. In the Center-West, above normal rainfall has delayed the harvest and reduced quality, but yields have been favorable. (For additional information, please contact Bill Baker at 202-260-8109.)
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| Apr 8 2011 | Brazil Corn Crop Increased |
Brazil corn production for 2010/11 is forecast at 55.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 4 percent from last month, but down 1.1 million tons or 2 percent from 2009/10. Harvested area is estimated at 13.3 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month and up 0.4 million from last year. Yield is estimated at 4.14 tons per hectare (t/ha), compared to 4.11 t/ha last month and 4.34 t/ha last year. A large first crop of corn is expected to be harvested this season, following generous rainfall during the growing season, but second-crop (safrinha) corn has experienced a difficult start. Heavy rains during March provided good soil moisture for the safrinha crop but also delayed planting, and crop development is currently two to three weeks behind normal. Yields will depend in large part on the amount of precipitation prior to the dry season, which typically begins in mid-April. (For additional information, please contact Bill Baker at 202-260-8109.)
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| Mar 10 2011 | Brazil: Good Conditions for First-Crop Corn Boost Harvest Prospects |
Brazil corn production for 2010/11 is forecast at 53.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 4 percent from last month, but down 3.1 million or 6 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.90 million hectares, up 0.15 million or 1 percent from last month and down 0.03 million or 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 4.11 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last month but down 5 from last year.Brazil has two corn crops. The first is a long-season crop that is planted in late September. The long-season crop is currently maturing and is in good condition. The second is the safrinha crop, which is grown mainly in the center-west region. Safrinha's share of the country's corn crop has increased significantly during the past five years, to nearly 40 percent of Brazil's total corn output. Safrinha corn is planted immediately after the harvest of the early-maturing soybeans, but soybean harvest delays have resulted in a high occurrence of the safrinha corn being planted beyond the normal planting window, which typically ends in late February. Final yields for safrinha corn will depend largely on precipitation from March through early May. (For more information, contact Bill Baker at 202-260-8109.)
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| Mar 10 2011 | Brazil: Estimated Soybean Production Increased |
Brazil soybean production for 2010/11 is estimated at 70.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 2 percent from last month, and up 1.0 million or 1 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 24.25 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.75 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.89 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month but down 2 percent from last year. The soy crop is in good condition. Harvest is underway, with progress slightly behind average and yields reported as average to above average. Harvest delays are attributed to late planting (due to low soil moisture when farmers were ready to plant) and frequent rain during February. The wet weather has led to occurrences of fields being harvested with a high grain moisture content. Some soybean fields were "terminated" (treated with chemicals to enable farmers to begin harvesting soybeans that were not yet fully mature) so that they could begin planting the second (safrinha) cotton and corn crops. Now that the window to plant the safrinha crops has closed, the harvest of later-planted and longer-season soybeans will begin. (For more information, please call Bill Baker at 202-260-8109.)
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| Mar 10 2011 | Brazil: Estimated Cotton Production Increased |
Brazil cotton production for 2010/11 is estimated at 8.80 million bales, up 0.60 million bales or 7 percent from last month and up 3.35 million bales or 61 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.30 million hectares, 7 percent from last month, and up 56 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1,474 kilograms per hectare, nearly unchanged from last month, but up 6 percent compared to last year.The early-planted, long-season cotton crop is setting bolls and is in good condition. A reduction in the area sown to soybeans in the center-west region (due to wet planting weather) coupled with high cotton prices provided incentive for farmers to increase first-season cotton area. The second-season (safrinha) cotton crop is planted immediately after the harvest of the early maturing soy crop in mid-January, but weather-related harvest delays for soybeans in the centerwest region has resulted in late planting safrinha cotton. Final yields for safrinha cotton typically depend in large part on the amount of rainfall received before the dry season arrives in early May. (For more information, please call Bill Baker at 202-260-8109.)
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| Feb 9 2011 | Brazil Expected to Produce Record Cotton, Large Soybean and Corn Crops |
The weather situation across Brazil has eased earlier concerns about dryness in the centralwest and southern regions. As of early February, the soybean crop across Brazil is in good condition. In response to this, Brazil soybean production for 2010/11 is now forecast at 68.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month. In late September, Mato Grosso soybean planting was delayed 10 to 20 days. This was due to a late start of the annual rains which break the winter dry period. Soybean harvesting has begun in this center-west region and is progressing rapidly - with corn and cotton planting following immediately behind the harvesters. Cotton area has expanded to a record level as prices have increased. Cotton production forecast is at 8.2 million bales, unchanged from last month. Safrinha cotton, the crop planted after the first crop of soy is harvested, is becoming a significant part of the total cotton crop - with some farms estimated as high as 40 to 45 percent this season. Both safrinha cotton and corn in the central-west region are slightly behind with regard to their planting window because of the late start to soy planting in September. A large part of the safrinha cotton will be planted in a narrow row production system which forces the crop to mature faster. Due to the late planting of the safrinha cotton crop, yield will be especially dependent on the amount of rainfall received during the remainder of the summer. Yields of safrinha cotton are typically 10 percent less than first-season crop. (For more information, contact Dr. William Baker at 202-260-8109.)
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| Oct 8 2010 | Brazil Soybeans: Delayed Rains Begin and Planting is Underway |
Brazil soybean production for 2010/11 is estimated at 67.0 million tons, up 2.0 million tons from last month's estimate. Harvested area is estimated at 24.1 million hectares, up 0.6 million hectares from both last month and last year. Yield is estimated at 2.78 tons per hectare (t/ha), compared to 2.94 t/ha last year. Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture released survey results on October 7 that indicated more soybeans will be planted than previously expected. Trade sources have also been increasing soybean area and production forecasts. The southern soybean growing region (Rio Grande Sol, Santa Catarina, Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul) has received adequate amounts of precipitation. The central region is typically dry during the summer months and has remained so for a period extending nearly 3 to 4 weeks later than the expected time for rains to begin. Farmers usually wait until there is enough soil moisture, typically after about 50 millimeters of rain have fallen, before planting the soybean crop. Rain fell across much of southern and central Brazil in early October and planting is now underway. (For additional information, contact William Baker at 202-720-6740.)
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| Jun 10 2010 | Brazil Cotton: Mato Grosso Drought Reduces 2009/10 Harvest Prospects |
USDA estimates Brazil cotton production for 2009/10 at 5.75 million bales, down 0.10 million or 2 percent from last month but up 0.27 million or 5 percent from 2008/09. Estimated area remains unchanged from last month at 0.84 million hectares. Dryness has prevailed for two months in Mato Grosso, which accounts for about half of Brazil's total cotton area. Good crop conditions in Bahia have compensated in part for the lower expected output in Mato Grosso. About 30 percent of the country's cotton area is located in Bahia. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
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| May 11 2010 | World Cotton: Many Countries Contribute to 2010/11 Production Increase |
World cotton production is forecast to increase to 113.9 million bales in 2010/11, up 11 percent from 2009/10. Harvested area is forecast to increase to 32.3 million hectares, up 7 percent from the previous year. Yields are forecast at 768 kilograms per hectare, up from 739 kilograms in 2009/10 and compared to the 5-year average of 759 kilograms.Many producing countries are contributing to the increase. U.S. output is forecast at 16.7 million bales, up 4.5 million from last year, and India production is forecast at 25.0 million bales, up 1.5 million. Brazil's output is forecast 0.95 million bales higher, with Pakistan up 0.7 million, Uzbekistan up 0.5 million and Turkey up 0.4 million.After the cotton industry faced excess cotton stocks for the 2008/09 marketing year and low prices starting in late 2008, the industry saw a reversal with diminished stocks in 2009/10 and higher prices from mid-2009. An improving world economy, especially in Asia, resulted in increased demand which has kept world cotton prices attractive and induced the rising output levels projected for 2010/11. World average yield decreased in 2009/10 with relatively poor crops in Australia, the United States, India, the EU-27, and Burkina. Closer-to-trend yields are forecast for the 2010/11 crop. (For further information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)
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| Apr 13 2010 | Brazil Corn: Reduced Area Does not Reduce Output |
Brazil's total corn production for 2009/10 is forecast at 53.5 million tons, up 2.5 million or 5 percent from last month and last year. Harvested corn area for 2009/10 is forecast at 13.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 0.8 million from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 4.02 tons per hectare, up 0.40 tons from last year's drought reduced crop in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Harvested area and production for the summer-season crop is estimated at 8.16 million hectares and 33.5 million tons, respectively. The top three producing states for summer-season corn are Parana (~6.6 MT), Minas Gerais (~6.3 MT), and Rio Grande do Sul (~5.2 MT). Record yields are expected in both Parana and Minas Gerais. The state's crop estimates agency in Parana, DERAL, reports the harvest is 74 percent complete and they expect record yields of 7.5 tons per hectare. In Rio Grande do Sul, the state crop estimates agency, EMATER, expects record yields of 4.85 tons per hectare with approximately 53 percent of the main crop harvested. Harvested area for the second-season crop is forecast at 5.14 million hectares and second-season production at 20 million tons. Nearly three-quarters of the second season crop is grown in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso, where approximately 6 and 8 million tons will be produced respectively. Planting for the second season crop was completed in Mato Grosso on March 10 and planting finished for Parana on March 31. Seasonal rains for the second season crop have been favorable in both states and beneficial rains will be required in Mato Grosso through May and in Parana through June. (For more information contact Dr. Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134).
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| Apr 13 2010 | Record 2009/10 Soybean Crop Expected In Brazil |
Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is estimated at a record 67.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and up 9.7 million or 17 percent from last year. Area is estimated at a record 23.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.5 million from last year's harvested area. Yield is estimated at a record 2.91 tons per hectare due to favorable weather within most major soybean regions. Approximately 73 percent of the total soybean crop has been harvested, ahead of the 5-year average pace of 56 percent. The harvest is complete in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo states, and nearly complete in Parana and Goais. Harvest progress in Bahia and Rio Grande do Sol are 35 and 30 percent complete, respectively. Record yields were reported in Parana, the second-largest producing state, and near record yields were reported in Mato Grosso do Sol, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Santa Catarina. Yields in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, were less than expected due to planting more short-season varieties with lower yield potential; fertilizers leaching from excessive rains during December and January; localized dryness during November; and rust problems with long-season varieties. March rainfall was below-average in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, and 70 percent of the crop is still in pod-filling stages. Over 50 percent of the crop was planted late, or after mid-December, due to excessive rains in November and early December. These late planted soybeans experienced dryness during March, and rainfall was also below average during the first week of April. The dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul should keep crop output close to 9 million tons, but above last year's severely drought affected crop of nearly 8 million tons. (For more information contact Dr. Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134).
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| Mar 11 2010 | Brazil Expects Bumper 2009/10 Soybean Harvest |
Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is forecast at a record 67.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 10.0 million or 18 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 23.2 million hectares, up 0.1 million from last month and up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last year's harvested area. Yield is forecast at a record 2.89 tons per hectare due to favorable weather within most major soybean regions. Approximately 33 percent of the total soybean crop has been harvested, ahead of the 5-year average pace of 20 percent. The harvest is most advanced in Mato Grosso where 60 percent of the crop is harvested, but recent rains have slowed harvest progress in Mato Grosso and Goais states with reported losses in yield and quality from excess moisture. Yields from short-season varieties in Mato Grosso state were also less than expected due to localized dryness during November and excessive rains from December through February. Early harvest reports indicate record yields in Parana, the second-largest producing state, and good to excellent yields in Mato Grosso do Sol, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Santa Catarina. Harvesting also started in both Bahia and Rio Grande do Sol and yields are reportedly good. Reported cases of pests and diseases, such as soybean rust, have been high this year due to wet weather from December through February. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134).
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| Feb 12 2010 | Brazil: Soybean Forecast Increased Following Favorable Harvest Reports |
Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is forecast at a record 66.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 9.0 million or 16 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 23.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.4 million or 6 percent from last year's harvested area. Yield is forecast at a record 2.86 tons per hectare due to favorable weather within most soybean regions. Approximately 5 percent of the national soybean crop has been harvested as of February 1, compared to an average of about 2 percent. The harvest in the state of Mato Grosso is the most advanced with 12 to 13 percent of the crop harvested.USDA/FAS personnel traveled within Brazil's major soybean regions during January to assess crop conditions. Crop conditions were observed to range from good to excellent due to above-average and well-distributed rainfall within most growing regions. Early harvest reports also indicate excellent yields in the major producing states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Goais. It was observed that planting was delayed in the state of Rio Grande do Sul by heavy rains during November and early December. Rio Grande do Sul is the last major soybean producing state to plant and harvest soybeans, with February and March rainfall critical for successful crop development. Reported cases of soybeanrust have been high this year due to wet weather, but rust appears to be under control because of the utilization of short-season varieties and fungicide applications several times during crop development. Short-season varieties with improved yield potential are becoming more popular because they are less susceptible to rust and can be followed with second-season (safrinha) corn or cotton crops. (For additional information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Jan 12 2010 | Brazil Expects Record Soybean Harvest |
Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is forecast at a record 65.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month and up 8.0 million or 14 percent from last year. Bumper crops are expected in the states of Mato Grosso and Parana, the first and second-largest producing states, respectively. Area is forecast at a record 23.1 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month and up 1.4 million or 6 percent from last year's harvested area. Record soybean area was planted this year due to higher soybean prices and greater profit margins in comparison to corn. Yield is forecast at 2.81 tons per hectare, slightly above the 15-year trend yield of 2.80 tons per hectare.Rains arrived early in most parts of the country, which encouraged farmers to plant earlier than usual. Rains were also above average throughout the major soybean regions, and most regions have finished planting. Planting was delayed, however, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul due to heavy rains during November and early December, and 10 percent of the crop remained to be planted as of early January. Excess soil moisture in Rio Grande do Sul reportedly reduced germination in some fields and also increased pest infestations, diseases, and weeds.Harvesting started before Christmas this year in Mato Grosso which is earlier than normal due to early planting and more short-season varieties planted. This year short-season varieties increased to approximately 35 percent of the crop in Mato Grosso, whereas last year's crop had only 10 percent. Short-season varieties with improved yield potential are becoming more popular because they are less susceptible to rust and can be followed with second-season (safrinha) corn or cotton crops. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134, reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov).
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| Nov 10 2009 | Brazil's Soybean Area Increases Due to Greater Profit Margins |
Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is forecast at 63.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 6.0 million or 11 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 22.7 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and up 1.0 million from last year's harvested area. Yield is forecast at 2.78 tons per hectare, which is above the 5-year average of 2.64 tons. Soybean area for 2009/10 is expected to increase due to higher soybean prices and greater soybean profit margins in comparison to corn. The greatest increase in soybean area is expected to occur in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, with farmers switching from main-season corn to soybeans. Rains arrived early in most parts of the country, which encouraged farmers to plant earlier than normal. Approximately 31 percent of the crop was planted as of October 30, which is ahead of the normal planting pace of 22 percent. Planting in Mato Grosso is approximately two weeks ahead of schedule and 68 percent complete on November 5. The main soybean planting month is November, with most planting activities completed by the end of December. More short-season varieties with lower yield potential have been planted in Parana and Mato Grosso. Short-season varieties comprised approximately 10 percent of last year's crop in Mato Grosso, and this year short-season varieties will be approximately 25 percent of the crop. Shortseason varieties with improved yield potential are becoming more popular because they are less susceptible to rust and can be followed with second-season (safrinha) corn or cotton crops. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at (202) 690-0134 or reynolds@fas.usda.gov).
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| Nov 10 2009 | Brazil's 2009/10 Corn Area Expected to Be Less Than Last Year |
Brazil's corn production for 2009/10 is forecast at 51.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and unchanged from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.83 tons per hectare, up 0.21 tons per hectare or 6 percent from last year's drought-reduced crop in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Harvested area for 2009/10 is forecast at 13.3 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month and down 0.8 million from last year. Though area is forecast to decrease from last year, production is expected to be similar because last year's crop was severely affected by drought in the south, and more GMO seeds will be planted nationwide this year. Corn area is expected to decrease in Brazil for the 2009/10 growing season due to higher soybean prices and greater soybean profit margins in comparison to corn. The greatest decrease in corn area is expected to occur in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where farmers will switch from main-season corn to soybeans due to greater anticipated soybean profits. Planting progress for main-season corn in Parana (the largest corn-producing state) and Rio Grande do Sul (the second-largest main-season corn-producing state) are 88 and 61 percent complete, respectively. Planting progress for both states is slightly less than average due to wet conditions in southern Brazil. The Brazilian Seed Association announced approximately 40 percent of this year's main-season corn area will be planted with GMO seeds, while only 5 percent of last year's main-season crop was planted with GMO seeds. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at (202) 690-0134 or reynolds@fas.usda.gov).
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| Oct 13 2009 | Brazil: Excessive Rains Reduce Wheat Production |
Brazil's 2009/10 wheat production is forecast at 4.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 18 percent from last month and down 1.5 million or 25 percent from last year's near-record crop. Harvested area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, or approximately the same as the last year's area. Yield is estimated at 1.88 tons per hectare, which is below the 5-year average of 2.0 tons per hectare and well below last year's record yield of 2.48.Harvest is nearly 40 percent complete in Parana, the country's largest wheat producing state, and harvest will begin this month in the second largest wheat producing state, Rio Grande do Sul. The state estimating agency for Parana, DERAL, recently lowered state wheat yield estimates to 2.1 tons per hectare, while EMATER of Rio Grande do Sul currently forecasts state wheat yields at 2.0 tons per hectare. Both state wheat yields appear to be high considering the extent of crop damage caused by excessive rainfall and high humidity during the flowering and grain-filling stages. (For additional information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Sep 11 2009 | Brazil: Soybean Area Expected to Increase as Planting Approaches |
The USDA estimates Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production at 62.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or3 percent from last month and up 5.0 million or 9 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 22.5million hectares, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 0.8 million or 4 percentfrom last year. The increase in forecast area for 2009/10 is attributed to higher soybean pricesand greater profit margins relative to corn. The greatest increase in soybean area is expected tooccur in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where farmers will likely switchfrom main-season corn to soybeans. The planting of irrigated soybeans will begin in MatoGrosso on September 16, and the main rainfed soybean crop will be planted whenever sufficientrain arrives between late September and December. By law, Brazilian farmers in most statescannot start planting soybeans until after a 90-day Free Host Period (FHP) ends. The FHP hasbeen implemented in most states for the past several years as a way to slow the migration of'soybean rust during the dry season, which extends from June 15 through September 15. (Formore information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134).Canada: Rapeseed Production Forecast Down On Poor Conditions in AlbertaThe USDA estimates 2009/10 Canada rapeseed production at 10.0 million metric tons, down 0.5million or 5 percent from last month and down 2.6 million or 21 percent from last year. Area isforecast at 6.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 4 percent from last year'srecord level. Yield is estimated at 1.61 tons per hectare, 5 percent lower than last month and 17percent below last year. The reduction in yield is attributed chiefly to poor crop conditions inAlberta, where dryness, below-normal temperatures, and hail have negatively impacted the2009/10 crop. Manitoba and Saskatchewan also experienced dryness and unfavorably coolweather early in the growing season, but weather improved as the growing season progressed.Rapeseed yields in these two provinces are expected to reach near trend levels. (For moreinformation, contact Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881.)
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| Jun 10 2009 | Heavy Rains in Western Bahia Reduces 2008/09 Cotton Output in Brazil |
Harvesting of Brazil's 2008/09 cotton crop started last month in Mato Grosso and western Bahia states, which account for approximately 49 and 33 percent of national production, respectively. Early harvest reports from western Bahia indicate open bolls were damaged by heavy rains of approximately 270 millimeters (mm) and 115 mm in April and May, respectively, when monthly averages are normally 95 mm and 25 mm. Conservative estimates place output losses in western Bahia at 10 percent, while some analysts believe 20 percent losses are possible. Crop conditions in Mato Grosso range from good to excellent due to abundant and well-distributed rainfall. Above-average yields in Mato Grosso should help compensate for output losses in western Bahia. Brazil's 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at 5.5 million bales, down 5 percent from last month and down 25 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.83 million hectares, down 2 percent from last month and down 23 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1443 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from last month due to excessive rains in April and May. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Jun 10 2009 | Brazil's 2008/09 Rice Yields and Output Set New Records |
Brazil's 2008/09 rice production is forecast at 13 million tons on a rough basis, up 0.5 million tons or 4 percent from last month and up 8 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.92 million hectares, up 20,000 hectares from last month and up 46,000 hectares from last year. Yield is forecast at a record of 4.45 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last month and up 6 percent last year's yield. Harvest is complete in Rio Grande do Sol which produced approximately 62 percent of the nation's 2008/09 rice output, or a record of nearly 8 million tons for the state. Rice yields for the state also set a record this year with yields slightly greater than 7 tons per hectare. Rice yields have been increasing in Rio Grande do Sol for the past several years due to improved rice varieties and improved farming practices and management. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| May 19 2009 | World 2009/10 Crop Area and Production Forecasts |
The initial USDA country-level area and production estimates for 2009/10 grains, oilseeds, andcotton are provided this month. In previous years, only the initial grain estimates were releasedin May, but this year estimates for oilseeds and cotton are provided as well.World wheat area for 2009/10 is estimated at 224 million hectares, down less than 1 percentfrom last year. International prices in September 2008, when many Northern Hemisphere wheatproducers were deciding if they would plant, had declined from a year earlier while prices forcorn and soybeans were stronger. Wheat production is forecast at 658 million metric tons, down25 million tons from 2008/09, when excellent growing conditions occurred in many of the majorproducers.World corn area is forecast at 156 million hectares for 2009/10, unchanged from the previousyear. Reports of farmers foregoing corn planting because of high input costs have been receivedfrom many countries. Corn area is not increasing even though corn prices were high relative towheat, and to a lesser extent soybean, during December to February when many farmers weremaking their corn planting decisions. Corn production is forecast virtually unchanged at 788million tons as corn planting in the Northern Hemisphere is underway.World soybean area is forecast at 99 million hectares up 2 million. Production is forecast at 242million tons, up 29 million from 2008/09. Much of the increase results from an expectation ofrecovery in Argentina and Brazil which suffered from extreme drought in major producing areas.World international soybean/corn price ratios from October through December favored corn, buthigher production costs have favored soybeans, which require fewer inputs. (For moreinformation, contact Paul Provance 202-720-0873.)
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| May 19 2009 | Brazil: Slight Decrease Forecast for 2009/10 Corn Area |
Brazil's corn area for 2009/10 is forecast at 14.0 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 1 percentfrom 2008/09. Production for 2009/10 is forecast at 54.0 million tons, up 3.5 million tons fromthe estimated 2008/09 output of 49.5 million tons. Yield is forecast at 3.86 tons per hectare,which is slightly below the 10-year trend of 3.99.Corn area is forecast to decrease slightly, with producers expected to switch acreage from corn to'soy. In southern Brazil, corn producers suffered greater losses than soy producers for 2008/09because droughts occurred during critical growing periods for corn (which is planted after soy)and soy is more drought resistant than corn. Soybeans also have lower input costs and greaterliquidity which has become more important to producers in a tight credit environment. However,planting intentions could always change as the planting season approaches because planted areais largely determined from prices during the September/October planting season and fromexpected US crop harvest in October/November. (For additional information, please contactCurt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| May 19 2009 | Brazil: Slight Increase Forecast for 2009/10 Soybean Area |
Brazil's soybean area for 2009/10 is forecast at 22.0 million hectares, up 0.6 million or 3 percentfrom 2008/09. Production is forecast at 60.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons from the estimated2008/08 output of 57.0 million tons. The 2009/10 forecast yield is 2.73 tons per hectare, slightlyabove the 10-year trend of 2.70 tons per hectare.Industry sources indicate that soybean area is expected to increase 3 to 5 percent due to currentfavorable prices and the falling cost of fertilizer. Soy planting in Brazil begins in mid-Septemberwhen irrigated soybeans are planted, and immediately following the end of the 90-day Free HostPeriod (June 15- September 15). The Free Host Period is now implemented by all soybeanproducing states as a method to reduce the spread of soybean rust spores. Several factors thatwill hamper large soybean expansion next season, especially in central Brazil, include: largedebts carried over from rapid area expansion during 2000-2003; less credit availability; and more'stringent environmental restrictions to prevent agricultural expansion into the Amazon forest.Planting intentions could always change as the planting season approaches; however, becauseplanted area is largely determined by prices during the September/October planting season andfrom expected US crop harvest in October/November. (For more information, contact CurtReynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Feb 10 2009 | Brazil: Drought Reduces Yield Prospects for First-Crop Corn |
The USDA forecasts Brazil's corn production for 2008/09 at 49.5 million tons, down 2.0 millionor 4 percent from last month and down 9.1 million or 16 percent from last year. Harvested areais estimated at 14.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.5 million or 1percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.49 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last monthbut slightly above the 5-year average of 3.48 tons per hectare. Estimated yield was decreasedthis month due to severe drought in southern Brazil, where approximately half of the mainseason(first-crop) corn is grown. The drought lasted from mid-November until January andextended from the southern portion of Mato Grosso do Sul to Rio Grande do Sul. Damage isreported to be greatest in Parana, the country's highest producing corn state, where the crop wasin the critical pollination and early grain-filling stages when the drought occurred. Losses werehigh also in Rio Grande do Sol, but damage was less severe than in Parana state because cropdevelopment was not as advanced and the dryness not as prolonged.Approximately one-third of the total corn crop is safrinha (winter) corn. Planting began inJanuary, following the harvest of the early-soybean crop. March 1 is considered the final cut-offdate for planting because crops planted after that date are unlikely to reach full maturity if therainy season ends early. CONAB (the National Company of Food Supply, an agency of theMinistry of Agriculture of Brazil) currently forecasts safrinha corn area at the same level as lastyear, but most industry forecasters expect area to decrease by 5 to10 percent due to highdomestic supplies from last year's bumper crop and tighter credit for farmers. (For additionalinformation, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Feb 10 2009 | Brazil Soybeans: Estimated Production Reduced to 57 Million Tons Due to Dro |
The USDA forecasts Brazil soybean production for 2008/09 at 57.0 million tons, down 2.0million or 3 percent from last month and down 4.0 million or 7 percent from last year. Area isestimated at 21.3 million hectares, no change from last month and the same area as last year.Yield is forecast at 2.67 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last month but above the 5-yearaverage yield of 2.59 tons per hectare.Weather has been generally favorable for crops in northern Brazil, but severe drought prevailedin the southernmost states from mid-November until January, especially in Parana and RioGrande do Sol. Damage was likely worst in Parana, where the crop was in the flowering stagewhen the drought occurred, and less severe in Rio Grande do Sul, where soybeans are currentlyin flowering stage and final yields will be strongly dependent on February and March rainfall.Estimated harvested area was lowered this month due to the drought in the southern states wherecrops in some fields did not germinate due to dryness.Mato Grosso, the highest soybean producing state, had harvested approximately 5 percent oftheir soybean crop by the end of January. Reported yields from the early harvest are generallygood, but below last year's record yield due to less favorable weather, reduced application ofincreasingly expensive chemical fertilizer, and tighter credit. Reported cases of soybean rusthave been less frequent this year due to the dry weather. (For additional information, contactCurt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Jan 12 2009 | Brazil's 2008/09 Corn Production Lowered Due to Drought |
Brazil's corn production for 2008/09 is forecast at 51.5 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month, and down 7.1 million or 12 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at14.2 million hectares, no change from last month but down 0.5 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.63 tons per hectare, which is above the 5-year average yield of 3.48 tons per hectare but below the 10-year trend yield of 3.87 tons per hectare. The national corn yield was decreased this month due to high temperatures and dryness in southern Brazil when the main-season crop was in the critical pollination and early grain-filling stages. The drought started in mid-November, continued though December, and was most severe in the state of Parana. Total corn area will depend on safrinha (winter) corn area which farmers will begin planting this month immediately after the early soybean harvest. Last year, safrinha area was 5.1 million hectares or 34 percent of total corn area, while this year's safrinha area is currently forecast at 4.9 million hectares or 4.5 percent less than last year. Some industry forecasters expect that safrinha area could drop even lower due to high domestic supplies from last year's bumper crop, low domestic corn prices, tight credit, higher climatic risks with the safrinha crop, and higher input and transport costs in central Brazil where most of the safrinha corn is grown. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Nov 10 2008 | Brazil Soybeans: Production Lowered Due to Credit Shortage and High Input C |
Brazil's 2008/09 soybean production is forecast at 60.0 million tons, down 2.5 million or 4percent from last month and down 1.0 million from last year. Area is forecast at 21.5 millionhectares, down 0.5 million from last month and up 0.2 million or 1 percent from last year. Yieldis forecast at 2.79 tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last year's record yield and below the15-year trend of 2.82 tons per hectare.Both forecast area and yield were lowered this month due to the current international credit crisisand high fertilizer prices. Production in Mato Grosso and central Brazil will be most affected byreduced credit availability and high input costs, because farmers rely heavily on credit and incurhigher transport costs since these farms are located farthest away from ports. Some farmers inMato Grosso and central Brazil will plant fewer hectares, but most will reduce their costs byapplying less fertilizer. This year fertilizers account for approximately half of the cost ofproducing soybeans in Mato Grosso, so the easiest way to reduce costs will be to reduce fertilizerusage. National yields will be correspondingly affected by reduced fertilizer application,especially in high rainfall regions with sandy-clay loam soils such as Mato Grosso.National planting progress on October 31st was estimated by Safras and Mercado to be 26percent complete and ahead of the 5-year national average of 23 percent. Planting progress isgenerally above normal, with two notable exceptions: Rio Grande do Sol received excessiverainfall in late October that delayed plantings, and Bahia state is still waiting for rains to startafter experiencing a severe heat wave in October. (For further information, contact CurtReynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Oct 10 2008 | Brazil: Summer-Corn Area Forecast to Decrease |
Brazil corn production for 2008/09 is forecast at 55.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 4 percent fromlast month and down 3.6 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 14.3 million hectares, down0.5 million or 3 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield isforecast at 3.85 tons per hectare, 12 percent above the 5-year average of 3.45 tons per hectare and slightlybelow the 10-year trend yield of 3.90 tons per hectare.Forecast area decreased this month based on industry reports indicating that the recent international creditcrisis will reduce the amount of credit available to Brazilian farmers, who have just begun planting the2008/09 main (summer) corn crop. In its initial forecast of 2008/09 corn area, the state statistical agencyof Brazil (CONAB) indicates a 2-percent decrease in the area of summer corn.The main (summer) corn crop accounts for nearly 70 percent of Brazil's total corn output. The largest'summer-corn producing states are Parana, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul, which account forapproximately 23, 16, and 15 percent, respectively. Planting in Parana is approximately 50 percentcomplete, and industry representatives in Parana forecast that area will decrease by approximately 5percent from last year. Planting of Brazil's summer-corn crop will continue until December, and harvesttypically occurs between March and June. The states of Mato Grosso and Mata Grosso Do Sul are themain production regions for the second (winter, or safrinha) corn crop. Winter-corn planting will beginin February. Yields for both summer and winter corn have been increasing steadily over the past 20 years.Although summer-corn yield is consistently higher than winter-corn yield, the yield for wintercorn has been increasing at a higher rate and the difference between yields for the two crops isdecreasing. (For additional information, please contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Aug 12 2008 | Brazil: Soybean Planting Intentions Reach 22.0 Million Hectares |
Brazil soybean area for 2008/09 is forecast at 22.0 million hectares, down 0.5 million from last month but up 0.7 million or 3 percent from last year. Production is forecast at a record 62.5 million tons, down 1.5 million or 2 percent from last month but up 1.5 million tons from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.84 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last year's record and slightly above the 15-year trend of 2.82 tons per hectare. Two months ago, industry sources thought Brazil soybean area would increase by 5 to 10 percent from last year, but now only a moderate increase of 1 to 3 percent is expected. Several factors could hamper a rapid soybean expansion, especially in central Brazil, including: rising production and transport costs; large debts carried over from rapid area expansion during 2000-2003; less credit availability; fewer 2008/09 forward sales expected due to large financial losses from 2007/08 forward contracts; more stringent environmental restrictions to prevent agricultural expansion into the Amazon forest; and competition from other crops such as sugarcane and corn. Planting intention surveys from several southern cooperatives report modest soybean and corn area increases for the upcoming season. Other industry sources also indicate slight soybean area growth in all states, although no state is expected to significantly increase area. Planting will begin when irrigated soybeans are planted on September 16th, immediately following the end of the 90-day Free Host Period (June 15- September 15). The Free Host Period has been implemented in many states as a method to reduce the spread of soybean rust spores. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| May 9 2008 | Brazil: 2007/08 Corn Production Sets Record |
Brazil's corn production for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 56.0 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month, and up 5.0 million from last year's record. Harvested corn area for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 14.5 million hectares and up 0.5 million from last year's record area. Yield is forecast at a record 3.86 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last month and up 6 percent from last year's record of 3.64 tons per hectare. Brazil's largest summer corn producing states are Parana, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul. Reported summer-corn yields were aboveaverage in Parana and Minas Gerais, but yields in Rio Grande do Sul were below last year due to a short drought during February. Summer corn harvest is nearly complete and total summer output is expected to be nearly 39 million tons, or approximately 70 percent of the total crop. Winter corn accounts for the remaining 30 percent, with Mato Grosso and Parana each producing approximately one-third of the winter crop. Winter yields also are expected to be above-average in both Mato Grosso and Parana due to favorable rains, especially during April when the winter crop was in the grain-filling stage. High corn prices encouraged producers to plant larger summer and winter (safrinha) corn crops, with winter corn area increasing by 7 percent from last year. A similar increase in winter corn area is expected next year if corn prices continue to remain high. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Mar 11 2008 | Brazil: Record Corn Production |
Brazil corn production for 2007/08 is forecast at 53.0 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month and up 2.0 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 14.5 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 4 percent from both last month and last year. High corn prices encouraged farmers to plant winter corn after early-variety soybeans were harvested in January and February. Winter corn accounts for approximately 30 percent of the total production, with Mato Grosso and Parana each producing approximately one-third of the second (winter) crop. Winter corn planting follows the early soybean harvest and was nearly complete by early March.Conditions for summer corn, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of the total output, are reported to be better than average due to ideal weather since planting. Overall yield (including both summer and winter) is forecast at 3.65 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and above last year's record yield. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Mar 11 2008 | Brazilian Soybeans: Second Consecutive Year of Record Production |
Brazil soybean production for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 61.0 million tons, up 0.8 percent from February and up 3.4 percent from last year's record. Harvested area for 2007/08 is forecast at 21.3 million hectares, down 1 percent from last month but up 3 percent from last year.Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service conducted crop-assessment travel in the key soybean producing states of Mato Grosso, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul from February 14 through March 5. Soybean yields are reportedly higher than last year in Mato Grosso and Parana, where harvest is in progress. Although the crop was planted two to three weeks late, and heavy rains during January and February delayed the launch of the harvest campaign, favorable weather is enabling field activity to proceed at a rapid pace. Yields in Rio Grande do Sol, where harvest has not yet begun, are expected to be lower than last year due to dryness during the end of February. The amount of rainfall received during the next two weeks will be critical in determining final yields in Rio Grande do Sul. Total Brazil soybean yield is estimated at 2.86 tons per hectare, slightly above last year's record. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Feb 8 2008 | Brazil Set for Record 2007/08 Cotton Output |
Brazil's cotton production for 2007/08 is forecast at a record of 7.2 million bales, up 3 percent from last month and last year. Harvested area is forecast at 1.15 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month and up 5.5 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1363 kilograms per hectare, up 1 percent from last month but down 2 percent from last year's record yield.Cotton area continues to shift from the traditional production regions in the south (Sao Paulo and Parana) to the higher yielding regions in the north (Mato Grosso and Bahia). Mato Grosso is the largest producing state and accounts for 52 percent of total cotton, while Bahia and Goias are the second and third largest producing states and account for 31 and 6 percent of the crop, respectively.National yields continue to increase rapidly as production shifts to the higher yielding states in the north. Mid-season crop conditions in Mato Grosso range from good to excellent due to generally favorable weather. However, planting was delayed by two weeks in the Bahia cotton belt due to the late arrival of seasonal rains, and the same region also experienced a dry spell during early stages of crop development.Mato Grosso farmers are currently anxious to begin planting the second "safrinha" crop, which is sown immediately after the first soybean harvest. However, heavy rains over the past several weeks have delayed the harvest of early maturing soybeans. Planting delays typically reduce the potential yield of "safrinha" cotton because the crop becomes more susceptible to dry weather at the end of the growing season. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690- 0134.)
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| Jan 11 2008 | Brazil Soy Production Reduced Due to Less Than Expected Planted Area |
The USDA estimates 2007/08 Brazil soybeans production at 60.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month but up 1.5 million from last year, based on a reduction in estimated 2007/08 area from 22.0 to 21.5 million hectares. Some potential soybean area also was diverted to sugarcane this year due to Brazil's fervent demand for ethanol. Soybean planting was completed at the end of December, and the first harvest of irrigated soybeans began during
the first week of January 2008. Brazil's soybean yield is forecast at 2.81 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month and nearly matching the 15-year trend yield of 2.82 tons per hectare. The number of reported soybean rust cases has decreased from last year due to later planting, relatively drier weather,
and newly enacted state bans on the planting of irrigated soybeans during the winter months between June 15 and September 15. (This helps prevent rust spores from spreading from monocropping.) Recent dry weather in the eastern production zone, along the border of Goias, Bahia and Minas Gerais states, may reduce yields by 10 to 20 percent in some regions where soils have low water-holding capacities and where several weeks of dryness coincided with
crops advancing through the flowering and pod filling stages. The amount of precipitation during January and February will be critical in determining final yields. (For additional information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Oct 12 2007 | Brazil Soybean: Record Production Forecast Despite Delayed Planting |
Brazils soybean production for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 62.0 million tons, up 2 percentfrom last month, and up 5 percent from last years record crop. Harvested area for 2007/08 isforecast at 22.0 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month and up 6 percent from last year.The area forecast was increased by 0.5 million hectares from last month due to increased creditavailability, the governments decision to roll over debt for another year, and attractive economicconditions for growing soybeans. Planting recently started in the largest soybean producing'state, Mato Grosso, which typically is the first state to plant and harvest. However, substantialrains for planting in late-September were delayed by at least two weeks, with only 2 percent ofthe crop sown in Mato Grosso during the first week of October, against 6 percent last year. InParaná, the second largest soy producing state, producers are still waiting for regular rains inorder to begin planting. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)
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| Aug 13 2007 | Brazil: Record Cotton Production Forecast for 2006/07 |
The USDA estimates Brazil cotton production for 2006/07 at a record of 7.0 million bales, up 8percent from last month and up 49 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 1.09million hectares, up 3 percent from last month and up 29 percent from last year. Yield isforecast at a record 1390 kilograms per hectare, up 7 percent from last month and up 15 percentfrom last year.
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| Apr 10 2007 | Record Brazil Cotton Production Due to Good Weather and Higher Input Use |
Brazils cotton production for 2006/07 is forecast at 6.3 million bales, up 5 percent from lastmonth, and up 34 percent from last year. Harvested cotton area for 2006/07 is forecast at 1.07million hectares, up 4 percent from last month, and up 25 percent from last year. A record cottonyield is forecast at 1288 kilograms per hectare, up slightly from last month, and up 7 percentfrom last year. According to historical data, harvest should be most advanced in Parana and MatoGrosso do Sul and harvest is getting underway in Bahia, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Goias.Harvest will begin in Mato Grosso in May. Mato Grosso, the largest producing state accounts for51 percent of the countrys total cotton while Bahia and Goias, the second and third largestproducing states, account for 13 and 12 percent of the crop, respectively. Strong internal pricesand an expected stable exchange rate led farmers in the high-yielding states of Mato Grosso andBahia to increase their planted areas, thus accounting for the large increase in area over last year.As the growing season has progressed, however, the exchange rate has become more unfavorableand cotton has not proven to be as profitable as hoped, according to the Brazilian Association ofCotton Producers (ABRAPA). Earlier this season FAS Office of Agricultural Affairs Brasiliareported that Brazilian farmers had committed up to 60 percent of the future cotton crop forinputs (e.g. fertilizer and pesticide) which is expected to result in high yields for the safrinha(second crop) cotton and corn crops. Additionally, excellent weather throughout most of Brazilis contributing to a record yield. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882).
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| Apr 10 2007 | Higher Reported Yields in Brazils Major Soybeans States Lead to Record |
Brazils soybean production for 2006/07 is forecast at a record 58.8 million tons, up 3 percentfrom last month, and up 3 percent from last years revised estimate. Harvested soybean area for2006/07 is forecast at 21.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 6 percentfrom last year. Yield is forecast at 2.80 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last month and up 9percent from last year. Optimal weather throughout the growing season has been observed bymost soybean regions which has more than offset yield losses due to mid-February wetness innorth-central Mato Grosso. As harvest progresses, this months increase in production ismainly due to higher than expected reported yields especially in Mato Grosso, Parana, and RioGrande do Sul. Mato Grosso, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul account for approximately 29, 18,and 13 percent of the total production, respectively. Harvest progress has been swift due toearlier than normal plantings, greater use of short season varieties, and good weather. As ofMarch 30th, 59 percent of Brazils soybean crop had been harvested, compared to 49 percentthis time last year, and 46 percent on average. Mato Grosso is 90 percent harvested, comparedto 66 percent on average. Parana is 73 percent harvested compared to 65 percent on average.Rio Grande do Sul is the last state to be harvested; approximately 17 percent of its crop hasbeen collected compared to 7 percent on average. (For more information, contact NicoleWagner at 202-720-0882).
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| Apr 2 2007 | Brazils Corn Crop Continues To Rise in Area, Yield, and Production |
Brazils corn production for 2006/07 is forecast at a record 48.0 million tons, up 2.0 millionfrom last month, and up 6.3 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 13.3 millionhectares, up 0.3 million from last month and up 0.4 million from last year. Yield is forecast at3.6 tons per hectare, up slightly from last month and up 12 percent from last year. Summercorn harvest is underway, and is especially advanced in Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and MatoGrosso do Sul. Reported yields have been above average due to optimal weather since plantingin most of Brazils corn regions. Brazils largest summer corn producing states are Parana,Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul, which account for approximately 17, 14, and 11 percentof the total corn crop, respectively. High corn prices due to US ethanol demand are influencingfarmers to plant a bigger safrinha (winter) corn crop and may help to boost yield due toincreased fertilizer sales. Winter corn planting is underway and should be nearly finished bythe end of March. Soybeans are being harvested ahead of normal in Mato Grosso despitewetness in some areas, which will mean earlier planting of winter corn (which follow soybeans), thus resulting in higher yield prospects. Winter corn typically accounts for 25percent of Brazils total corn area and 23 percent of the total corn production. (For moreinformation, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)
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| Mar 12 2007 | Record Production Forecast for Brazil Soybeans |
Brazils soybean production for 2006/07 is forecast at a record 57.0 million tons, up 1.0 millionfrom last month and up 2.0 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 21.0 millionhectares, unchanged from last month but down 1.0 million from last year. Yield is forecast at2.71 tons per hectare, up slightly from last month and up 9 percent from last year. While wetconditions during the middle of February threatened quality and yield in the number oneproducing state of Mato Grosso, and in the secondary regions of the northeast, sunny and dryweather arrived at the end of February allowing beans to dry and harvest to resume. Accordingto Brazils Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), yields have been revised upward in Parana,Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul from their last survey. These stateyield increases have more than offset localized yield losses in Mato Grosso. Mato Grosso is 42percent harvested, compared to 31 percent harvested this time last year. Parana is 19 percentharvested compared to 16 percent a year ago. Rio Grande do Sul is the last state to beharvested; approximately 1 percent of its crop has been collected. Mato Grosso, Parana, andRio Grande do Sul account for approximately 29, 18, and 13 percent of the total production,respectively. Total harvest progress is 18 percent complete, compared to 16 percent this timelast year and 13 percent on average. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)
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| Mar 12 2007 | Brazils Corn Crop Continues To Rise in Area, Yield, and Production |
Brazils corn production for 2006/07 is forecast at a record 48.0 million tons, up 2.0 millionfrom last month, and up 6.3 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 13.3 millionhectares, up 0.3 million from last month and up 0.4 million from last year. Yield is forecast at3.6 tons per hectare, up slightly from last month and up 12 percent from last year. Summercorn harvest is underway, and is especially advanced in Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and MatoGrosso do Sul. Reported yields have been above average due to optimal weather since plantingin most of Brazils corn regions. Brazils largest summer corn producing states are Parana,Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul, which account for approximately 17, 14, and 11 percentof the total corn crop, respectively. High corn prices due to US ethanol demand are influencingfarmers to plant a bigger safrinha (winter) corn crop and may help to boost yield due toincreased fertilizer sales. Winter corn planting is underway and should be nearly finished bythe end of March. Soybeans are being harvested ahead of normal in Mato Grosso despitewetness in some areas, which will mean earlier planting of winter corn (which follow soybeans), thus resulting in higher yield prospects. Winter corn typically accounts for 25percent of Brazils total corn area and 23 percent of the total corn production. (For moreinformation, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)
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| Jan 12 2007 | Brazil: Cotton Production Near 2003/04 Record |
Brazils cotton production for 2006/07 is forecast at 6.0 million bales, up 9 percent from lastmonth, and up 28 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 1.03 million hectares, up 3percent from last month, and up 21 percent from last year. A record yield is forecast at 1,268kilograms per hectare, which is up 6 percent from last month, and up 5 percent from last year.Planting is underway in Brazils largest cotton-producing state, Mato Grosso, which produces 51percent of the countrys total cotton crop. Planting is concluding in Bahia and Goias, the secondand third largest producing states, which account for 13 and 12 percent of the crop, respectively.Weather has been ideal for much of the cotton crop, boosting yield prospects. Cotton will be thefirst crop to recover from several years of liquidity crisis. Strong internal prices and an expected'stable exchange rate have led farmers in the high-yielding states of Mato Grosso and Bahia tomake plans to increase significantly area planted to cotton. Despite a slight decrease in the cottonarea of southern Brazil, overall area is expected to increase significantly. The U.S. agriculturalattaché in Brasilia reports that Brazilian farmers have already committed up to 60 percent of thefuture cotton crop for inputs (e.g. fertilizer and pesticides) which is expected to result in highyields for the safrinha cotton and corn crops. Cotton is reported to be the one crop in MatoGrosso that will return a profit, leading farmers to plant more cotton to cover losses in othercrops. As most of the 2006/07 production will be harvested towards the end of the trade year,exports from this crop will be made in the 2007/08 trade year. (For more information, contactNicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)
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| Jan 12 2007 | Brazil Corn in Good to Very Good Condition |
Brazils corn production for 2006/07 is forecast at 42.0 million tons, unchanged from lastmonth, and up 0.3 million from last year. Harvested area for 2006/07 is forecast at 12.7 millionhectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.2 million from last year. Yield is forecast at3.3 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month but slightly up from last year. Summer cornplanting is nearly finished. Rains and warmer weather have facilitated crop development inParana, Brazils largest corn-producing state. Plants in Parana are entering grain-fill and arerated to be in good to very good condition. Nearly all of the summer corn growing regions haveexperienced very good weather, except for Sao Paolo, which experienced some dryness inNovember. Brazils largest summer corn producing states are Parana, Minas Gerais, and RioGrande do Sul, which account for approximately 19, 12, and 11 percent, respectively, of thetotal corn crop. High corn prices will very likely influence farmers to plant a bigger safrinha(winter) corn crop and may help to boost yield due to increased fertilizer sales. The recentincrease in corn prices, however, arrived too late to have much effect on the currently planted'summer crop. Additionally, soybeans are being harvested ahead of normal in Mato Grosso,which will mean earlier planting of the winter corn (which follows soybeans), thus resulting inhigher yield prospects. Winter corn typically accounts for 25 percent of Brazils total corn areaand 23 percent of the total corn production. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at202-720-0882.)
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| Dec 12 2006 | Brazil: Higher Corn Production Expecte |
Brazil's corn production for 2006/07 is forecast at 42.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month and up 0.3 million from last year. Harvested corn area for 2006/07 is forecast at 12.7 million hectares, up 0.1 million hectares from last month but down 0.2 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.3 tons per hectare, which is nearly unchanged from last month but up slightly from last year. While improving corn prices may influence farmers to plant a bigger safrinha (winter) corn crop, the recent increase in corn prices arrived too late to have much effect on the currently planted summer crop. Additionally, soybeans will likely be sold at a relatively good price which could mean higher input rates will be used on the winter corn. Thus, higher corn and soybean profits will likely boost yield for the winter corn crop. Winter corn typically accounts for 25 percent of Brazil's total corn area and 23 percent of total corn production. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882
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| Nov 9 2006 | Brazil Rice Production Forecast Down 7 Percent |
Brazil's milled rice production for 2006/07 is forecast at 7.90 million tons, down 7 percent from last month, but nearly unchanged from last year. Harvested rice area for 2006/07 is forecast at 3.1 million hectares, down 14 percent from last month, but up 11 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.75 tons per hectare, up from last month's yield of 3.47, but below last year's record of 4.10 tons per hectare. Rice yields have steadily increased over the last 20 years due to improved technology (e.g., seed varieties, management practices, increased irrigation), but rice area has declined since 2004. USDA expects rice area to recover slightly in 2006/07 due to an expected recovery of prices, an exchange rate slightly less favorable to imports, and the R$50 billion that the Brazilian rice industry invested in mills and infrastructure in 2004. Demand will play less of a role in area increase as per capita rice consumption has decreased in the last 2 decades due to changes in eating habits with less available time for cooking and more out-of-home consumption. Although the increase in forecast area is cautious, a strong yield is expected due to continued adoption of improved seed varieties and the Clearfield system used to control red rice and other weeds. Additionally, moisture has been consistently favorable throughout Brazil's rice areas. Planting is currently underway in the irrigated areas of the south, which account for over half of Brazil's production. Planting is just beginning in the Center-West states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)
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| May 12 2006 | Brazil Soybean Harvest Results For 2005/06 Weigh Down Output |
Brazil soybean production for 2005/06 is forecast at 56.5 million tons, 0.5 million tons lower than last month, but 3.5 million higher than last year's drought reduced crop. Excessive moisture in much of the country contributed to the spread of rust and caused harvesting difficulties. Harvest reports have been indicating less than expected yields, and Brazilian government official estimates have been lowered recently. (For more information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)
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| May 12 2006 | Foreign Rice Output Expected To Rise For 2006/07 |
Foreign milled rice production for 2006/07 is estimated at 410.5 million tons, up 6.1 million or 1.5 percent from last year. The increase is due to a small rise in both estimated area (152.05 million hectares, up 1.5 million) and forecast yield. Production is expected to drop by 300,000 tons in Pakistan due to lower yields (down from last year's record level). In Japan and South Korea, government-mandated area reductions and declining yields are expected to cut production this year. The largest production gains are expected in India (up 2.1 million tons) and China (up 1.6 million). However, the largest percent production increases are expected in Australia and Brazil (both up 9 percent) due to higher forecast yields. Higher production is anticipated in Nigeria (up 100,000 tons) as well as the major rice producers in Southeast Asia, notably Bangladesh (up 800,000 tons) and Cambodia (up 190,000 tons). Only minor year-to-year area and production changes are expected in the EU, other Central and South America countries, the former Soviet Republics, and Africa. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133).
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| Apr 10 2006 | Brazil Soybean Crop Estimated Lower |
Brazil's 2005/06 soybean crop is estimated at a record 57.0 million tons, down 3 percent from last month owing to slightly reduced yields in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Harvested soybean area is estimated at a near-record 22.1 million hectares, down 4 percent from last year. Soybean yield is estimated at 2.58 tons per hectare, which is very near the 5-year average. Recent Brazilian government crop surveys have indicated that sown soybean area in the major producing center-west states was slightly higher than previously reported. Farmers apparently reduced crop acreage only marginally this year (3.5 percent) despite their reported financial difficulties. Given falling international soybean prices and a strengthening currency since planting, domestic soy prices in many regions are below the cost of production. The average farmer's financial situation has considerably worsened as a result, and the Agriculture Ministry reported it expects significantly reduced plantings next year. This year's weather pattern during the soybean-growing season (October 2005 - March 2006) was generally benign, with far more favorable precipitation received over the majority of regions than last year. This led to markedly increased crop yields in key states such as Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, which were severely affected by drought and high temperatures last season. The overall effect of timely and well-distributed rains was that national soybean yields increased by over 13 percent compared to last year. The soybean harvest was close to 60 percent complete by April 7. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Mar 10 2006 | Brazil Corn: Southern Dryness Reduces Corn Yield |
Brazil's corn production for 2005/06 is estimated at 41.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, but up 6 million from last year's drought-affected crop. Harvested area is estimated at 12.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.2 million from last year. Crop yield is estimated at 3.20 tons per hectare, matching the 5-year average. Based on recent FAS personnel travel through major production regions in January and February (observed crops ranged in development from newly planted winter corn to harvested summer corn), the summer corn outlook is mixed due to highly variable rainfall and strong drought in two of the three main southern producing states. Crops in both Paraná and Santa Catarina were seriously affected by dryness that occurred during mid-December to mid-January when summer corn was in the reproductive growth stage. National summer corn yield is expected to be below average but slightly improved over last year, as timely rainfall in major Center-West and Southeast states bolstered crop yields and offset some of the southern losses. Summer corn harvesting and winter corn planting progress will both be over 45 percent complete by March 10. Producers were expected to reduce overall national acreage sown to field crops, with the exception of corn, due to substantial financial losses in 2004/05, strengthening exchange rates, and declining commodity prices. At planting time in October 2006, corn was the only major summer crop that had generally favorable potential profitability. Recent Brazilian government crop surveys confirmed that expectation, indicating farmers substantially reduced acreage sown to soy (4 percent), rice (20 percent), and cotton (27 percent) while increasing summer corn area by 11-13 percent. The winter corn crop is being planted now, and there are mixed expectations about the scope of total planted area. Major forecast organizations from the Brazilian government and private sector are indicating either an 8-9 percent increase in area, or no change whatsoever. FAS/W is currently forecasting that winter corn area will increase 9 percent. Corn is the most profitable winter grain crop, and domestic corn prices have been strengthening in recent months. Farmers, cooperatives, and government agencies visited in southern Brazil all indicated that winter corn acreage would increase at the expense of wheat this year. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.
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| Mar 10 2006 | Foreign Corn: Smaller Crops for Major Competitors in 2005/06 |
Foreign corn production in 2005/06 is estimated at 401.6 million tons, similar to last month, but down by 7.5 million from last year due to reduced production from major countries/regions such as European Union (EU), Argentina, and South Africa. For 2005/06, EU output decreased by 5.3 million tons to a total of 48.2 million, due to lower area and drought-reduced yields in France--largest producer in the EU. In Argentina and South Africa, below-average crops of 15.5 million tons and 7.5 million are expected this year, 5 million and 4 million lower than last year's record crops, respectively. The drop in Argentina's crop is due to lower area and unfavorable growing conditions, while in South Africa it is due entirely to lower area. The decrease in area in South Africa is attributable to lower prices, higher stocks, and reduced credit from banks and cooperatives. For this month, increases for India and Romania were almost completely offset by smaller crops in Brazil and Mexico. Larger harvested area in India and higher yields due to better weather in both India and Romania have been major contributors to the increase in production. (For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at 202-720-7339.)
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| Feb 8 2006 | South American Soybeans: Yields Maintained in Argentina and Brazil, Decreas |
Dryness coupled with extreme heat in early January threatened yield potential in much of the soybean-growing regions of South America. Since the soybean crop was in the vegetative stage in early January and above average precipitation was received in Argentina and Brazil immediately following the heat wave, little yield potential was lost as crop development benefited from the significant moisture. Paraguay's crop suffered from continued dryness that damaged the already stressed soybean crop. Therefore, USDA has reduced its estimate of soybean production in Paraguay to 4.5 million tons, down from last month's estimate of 4.8 million. Harvested area in Paraguay is unchanged from last month's estimate of 2.0 million hectares.
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| Nov 1 2005 | Brazil: Cotton Production Forecast to Collapse as Profitability Evaporates |
Brazil's 2005/06 cotton crop is estimated at 4.75 million bales, down 15 percent from last month and down 19 percent from last year's harvest. Harvested area is estimated at 0.90 million hectares, down 13 percent from last month and down 23 percent from last year. Crop yields are forecast at trend level of 1.15 tons per hectare on the assumption of normal weather. Brazilian cotton producers rapidly expanded cultivated area over the last 3 years as profits for the crop surged. This was primarily attributed to a weak exchange rate and moderately strong international cotton prices that inflated producer's gross margins. But as the country's exchange rate strengthened versus the U.S. dollar over the last 18 months and as international cotton prices declined, cotton profitability declined. The Brazilian cotton industry and major producer organizations have signaled for several months a potential collapse in cotton acreage owing to these difficulties, and the Brazilian Government's (CONAB) recent planting intentions report released in November supported this conclusion by estimating a drop in cotton area in 2005/06 of 29-35 percent. The U.S. agricultural attaché reports that producers are especially saddled with indebtedness owing to their extensive use of credit in recent years to buy land, farm equipment, and gins. The attaché also reported that cotton profitability was negligible last year in the prime Center-West region where roughly 63 percent of the crop is produced, and that agro consultants estimate that profits will be negative this year. It is expected that much of the land not sown to cotton this year will be rotated to other crops, primarily soybeans, corn, or sugarcane. Cotton is usually produced as one of several crops on mixed-farm enterprises, with managers able to alternate crops at will. Planting is well underway, and will be completed in the major producing state of Mato Grosso in January. Mato Grosso typically produces about 50 percent of the national crop. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Nov 1 2005 | Brazil: Corn Production To Expand as Soybean Falters |
Brazil's 2005/06 total corn crop is estimated at 42.5 million tons, down 3 percent from last month, but up 21 percent from last year's drought affected harvest. Harvested corn area is estimated at 12.8 million hectares, down 2 percent from last month, but up 12 percent from last year. The Brazilian Government's (IBGE) estimated that sown area last year actually reached 12.1 million hectares, but drought in southern states led to the abandonment of roughly 0.6 million hectares in Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Santa Catarina. Therefore, current estimates of corn area in 2005/06 are up only 6 percent from last year's sown area. Crop yields are forecast at trend level of 3.3 tons per hectare on the assumption of normal weather. The 2005/06 planting season is well underway, with roughly 60 percent of the crop sown by mid-November. Slim to negative profit margins on soybeans this year are expected to cause a net shift in acreage to corn during the main summer growing season when the crops actively compete for available land, especially in prime southern producing states. The U.S. agricultural attaché reports that corn is especially profitable in comparison to soybeans in Parana, while the Brazilian Government's (CONAB) expects an increase of 7-11 percent in corn area in the southern region alone. The southern and southeast states make up the lion's share of corn production, on average producing 70 percent of annual corn output. Corn production is less influenced by exchange rate or export price issues, as are soybeans, because most of the crop is consumed domestically. Total domestic consumption in 2005/06 is estimated to be 40.8 million tons. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Nov 1 2005 | Brazil: Soybean Area and Production Lower Due to Decreased Profitability |
Brazil's 2005/06 soybean crop is estimated at 58.5 million tons, down 3 percent from last month owing to the expectation of continued unfavorable exchange rates, constrained credit, and poor prospective profitability. Harvested soybean area is estimated at 21.5 million hectares, down 2 percent from last month and down 6 percent from last year. The Brazilian Government's Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that sown area last year actually reached 23.4 million hectares, but drought in southern states led to the abandonment of roughly 0.5 million hectares in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana. Crop yields are forecast at trend level of 2.7 tons per hectare on the assumption of normal weather and adequate control of Asian rust. The 2005/06 planting season is well underway, with roughly 40 percent of the crop sown by mid-November. With the anticipation of slim to negative profit margins on soybeans this year, growers are expected to decrease acreage for the first time in 7 years. The Brazilian Government's National Supply Company (CONAB) recently released a planting intentions survey report that reiterated this point, estimating soybean area would decline between 5-8 percent. The survey indicated soybean area would fall in all producing regions, with the greatest percentage decline in the state of Goias where, reportedly, a significant number of producers defaulted on production loans in 2004/05 and credit is therefore severely constrained. Large amounts of low-yielding marginal lands that were newly cleared or converted in the last year or so in the Center-West states are expected to be fallowed this year. Meanwhile in other states, corn and sugarcane are expected to see increases this year on land previously devoted to soybeans. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Sep 1 2005 | Brazil: Soybean Expansion Halts as Crop Area Declines |
Brazilian soybean harvested area for 2005/06 is forecast at 22.0 million hectares, down 1.0
million from last month and down 4 percent from last year. Soybean production is estimated at a
record 60.0 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month, but up 18 percent from last years
drought and rust-afflicted crop. Yields are forecast at the 25- year trend level of 2.73 tons per
hectare, assuming normal weather and adequate control of Asian rust. The planting season gets
underway in parts of Mato Grosso in September, but will commence in much of the rest of the
country in October.
The reduction in area is due to five primary factors: current low commodity prices, a strong
currency, high rate of unpaid debts, tight credit, and high input costs. Safras & Mercado
agricultural consultants recently reported that soybean prices, which have encouraged plantings
in previous years, declined by an average of 25 percent in 2004/05 from the previous season.
With a fairly good northern hemisphere crop expected, Brazilian producers are not optimistic
about price prospects for 2005/06. Most producers purchased imported inputs for planting the
2004/05 crop at an exchange rate of R$3.00/U.S.$ but sold the crop at around the current rate of
R$2.30/U.S.$. Brazil Ministry of Agriculture officials explain the government programmed an
18-percent increase in credit with much at a subsidized rate of 8.75 percent, but many of these
funds may not be used due to non-payment or delayed payment on loans from the previous two
harvests. Credit from input suppliers for the planting season is expected to be unavailable to
many farmers who had difficulty paying for last seasons inputs after they experienced crop
failure or an otherwise unprofitable season in 2004/05. Farmers must now routinely spend
roughly U.S.$40 per hectare for fungicides to treat for soybean rust, a disease that didnt become
a serious problem in Brazil until the 2003/04 season. The full effect of these treatments on
soybean profitability is only now becoming clear to many farmers who first began regular
fungicide sprayings last year. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Aug 1 2005 | Brazil: Cotton Area in 2005/06 Forecast to Decline |
Brazils cotton production is forecast at 6.0 million bales, down 0.5 million from last month and unchanged from last years harvest. Harvested area is forecast at 1.10 million hectares, down 100,000 hectares from last month and down 72,000 hectares from last years level. Yields are forecast at 1.18 tons per hectare. Planting of the 2005/06 crop begins in September. The Brazilian currency (Real) has appreciated versus the U.S. dollar by over 20 percent in the past year, reversing a trend in recent years that fueled agricultural expansion. Unfavorable exchange rates coupled with low commodity prices have seriously eroded the profit margin for major export crops like cotton. Credit availability for the new 2005/06 crop is uncertain given farmers altered financial circumstances. Poor crop returns from the 2004/05 harvest have reportedly left many farmers with net financial losses. As a result of these factors, farmers are expected to reduce 2005/06 cotton planting by 6 percent. (For more information, contact Michael Shean, 202-720-7366.)
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| Oct 1 1997 | BRAZIL: CORN PRODUCTION LOWER DUE TO 1996/97 REVISION |
The 1997/98 corn production in Brazil is estimated at 34.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month due to an area and production revision for the 1996/97 crop. Harvested area is revised to 13.6 million hectares, down 0.4 million form last month and down 0.3 million from 1996/97. Estimates for the 1996/97 have been reduced because the crop in the North/Northeast and second crop in Parana and Sao Paulo suffered from inadequate moisture. For 1997/98, planting is beginning and area is estimated to be lower than 1996/97 as producers are expected to plant additional land to soybeans.
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| Jan 1 1998 | BRAZIL: SOYBEAN CROP RAISED DUE TO GOOD WEATHER |
Brazil's 1997/98 soybean production estimate was raised to a record 30.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from December and up 11 percent from last year's record crop. The month-to-month increase resulted mostly from reports of higher soybean area and above average growing conditions. Yield is forecast at a record 2.33 tons per hectare due to beneficial weather in all the main soybean-growing regions. Rainfall was above normal for December in the states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, the two largest soybean producers. Elsewhere, rainfall has been normal. Scattered rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul, which produces 8 percent of the total crop, might be of concern.
Nationally, harvested area is forecast at 12.9 million hectares, up 0.1 million from last month and up 1.1 million or 9 percent from last year's record area. Strong world demand, high international prices, and increasing sales of fertilizers, seeds, herbicides, and machinery indicated higher soybean area.
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| May 1 1998 | BRAZIL: SOYBEAN PRODUCTION UP BASED ON GOOD HARVEST RESULTS |
Brazilian soybean production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 30.7 million tons, up 0.7 million or 2 percent from last month, and up 3.9 million or 15 percent from the previous record of last year. Harvested area for 1997/98 is forecast at 13.0 million hectares, up 1.2 million from last year. The upward revision is due to good harvest results, especially in the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Rio Grande do Sul, and Parana. Production was believed to be limited by dryness during December and January in the states of Parana, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul, and more recently by heavy rains that have hampered harvesting. The new record forecast indicates that these problems were in some cases not as severe as once feared and that any losses are being more than compensated for by good yields in other areas. As of April 30, harvest was 87 percent complete, behind last year's progress of 96 percent, but equal to the 5-year average.
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| Sep 1 1998 | BRAZIL: SOYBEANS ESTIMATED HIGHER |
Soybean production for 1998/99 has been decreased from 29.5 to 29.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month, and a decrease of 2.0 million or 7 percent from last year's record crop. Area was decreased from 13.0 million hectares to 12.8, a decrease of 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month and from last year. The area decrease is due to lower expected returns for soybeans because of low international prices. Yields are forecast to be near normal following last year's record. Soybean planting begins in September and runs through February with harvest beginning in March and lasting through May.
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| Dec 1 1998 | BRAZIL: CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED |
Brazil's 1998/99 corn production is estimated at 33.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month, but 8 percent above last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.7 million hectares, down 0.3 million from last month, but 9 percent above last year. Dry weather during November in southern Brazil has caused producers to reduce plantings; however, northern Parana and southern Mato Grosso received widespread showers (0.5 - 2.0 inches) benefitting the corn crop now being planted. Year-to-year, farmers are shifting area from soybeans to corn in response to relatively lower soybean prices and reduced corn stocks.
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| Jan 1 1999 | BRAZIL: SOYBEAN CROP RECOVERS FROM EARLIER DRYNESS |
Brazil's 1998/99 soybean crop--the second highest on record--is estimated at 29.5 million tons, up 2 percent from December, but down 5 percent from last year's record crop of 31.0 million tons. Planting of the soybean crop is nearing completion over most of the country; dryness in November contributed to a small shift in acreage from corn to soybeans in parts of Rio Grade do Sul and Parana. The estimated harvested area remains unchanged from last month, at 12.8 million hectares. Near-normal to normal rainfall in December was favorable for the soybean crop, especially in the States of Mato Grosso and Parana. Recent rains benefitted soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul; however, more rainfall is needed to replenish moisture reserves depleted by the earlier dryness.
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| Feb 1 1999 | BRAZIL: SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATED HIGHER |
Brazil's 1998/99 soybean crop is estimated as the second highest on record at 30.5 million tons, up 3 percent from last month, but down 3 percent from last year's 31.5 million tons. The estimated harvested area remains unchanged from last month at 12.8 million hectares. Near-normal to normal rainfall amounts improved prospects for the soybean crop throughout most of the country despite some isolated pockets of dryness which remain in Rio Grande do Sul after dryness in November-December in Rio Grade do Sul and Parana caused concern for the crop early in the season. Though world commodity prices are lower this year than they have been, reports indicate fertilizer consumption in Brazil this season was near last year's level.
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| Mar 1 1999 | Brazil: Soybean Production Estimated Higher |
Brazil's 1998/99 soybean crop is estimated as second highest on record at 31.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month, but down 2 percent from last year's record crop of 31.5 million tons. The estimated harvested area remains unchanged from last month at 12.8 million hectares. Recent rains improved prospects for the soybean crop in parts of Bahia, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul. Above normal rainfall continues Mato Grosso, threatening harvesting operations. Nationally, 8 percent of the soybean crop has been harvested as of March 5. The state-wide harvest progress is as follows: Goias (18%), Mato Grosso (17%), Sao Paulo (12%), Parana (9%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (12%).
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| Mar 1 1999 | Brazil: Rice Production Raised Due to Favorable Weather |
Brazil's 1998/99 milled rice production is revised upward by 0.3 million tons to 7.5 million, up 4 percent from last month, but down 2 percent from the record 1994/95 crop. A majority of the main-season rice crop is cultivated in the State of Rio Grande do Sul and the November 1998 dryness did not damage the rice crop as the majority of the crop is irrigated. Supplies of irrigation water were ample because of the heavy "El Nino" rains during the previous season. Consequently, the periodic dry spells during the growing season actually benefitted yield by enhancing photosynthesis because of reduced cloud cover. In addition, new dryland rice varieties with yields approaching irrigated rice levels have increased average yields in the state of Mato Grosso and in the Center-West Region over the previous year. These varieties with very good quality characteristics are being heavily adopted, principally in Mato Grosso.
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| Mar 1 1999 | Brazil: Corn Lowered by Earlier Dryness in South |
Brazil's 1998/99 corn crop is lowered by 1.0 million tons to 32.5 million, down 3 percent from last month, but up 5 percent from last season. Harvested area is lowered slightly to 12.6 million hectares, but is still 11 percent higher than 1997/98. Earlier dryness during planting and the beginning of the growing season reduced yield in the key producing states in the South, especially Rio Grande do Sul. In general, the corn harvest has been delayed by the late planting and in some areas, the need to reseed because of localized dry spells. As the soybean harvest nears, the corn harvest may be further delayed as producers move to harvest the soybean crop first. The Secretariat of Agriculture reported that as of February 22, 16 percent of the first-crop corn area in Parana had been harvested, while 23 percent of estimated second-crop area in Parana had been planted. The second season or safrinha crop is expected to do well due to favorable growing conditions in Parana.
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| Jan 1 2000 | BRAZIL: PERSISTENT DRYNESS REDUCES CORN ESTIMATE |
The 1999/2000 corn crop is estimated at 32.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month and nearly 1 percent below last year. The La Niña related dryness in the southern states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul adversely impacted the corn crop throughout emergence and reproductive growth stages. These three states are cumulatively responsible for about 38 percent of total corn production.
Two corn crops are generally cultivated: the first crop is planted from October to December and harvested February to June and accounts for about 80 - 85 percent of total corn production. Rainfall from September through December was irregular, particularly within the southern states and delayed planting operations by about 2 to 3 weeks. The second or Safrinha crop is currently being planted and has recently received scattered precipitation, but with inadequate soil moisture, more rainfall is needed.
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| Feb 1 2000 | Brazil: Dry Conditions Trim Soybean Production |
The 1999/00 soybean crop is estimated at 30.5 million metric tons, or 2 percent below last months estimate. Harvested area remains unchanged at 13.1 million hectares. Rainfall during the 1999/00 growing season has been generally favorable in northern Brazil; however, dryness during October to December delayed planting in southern states from Mato Grosso do Sul to Rio Grande do Sul. Improved rainfall in January benefitted soybeans in drought impacted states, but seasonal precipitation levels are still below average. About 30 percent of the soybean crop is in the vegetative stage, 40 percent in bloom, 25 percent in grain fill and another 5 percent mature.
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| Mar 1 2000 | Brazil: Rice Crop Benefits from Improved Weather and Input Usage |
Brazils 1999/2000 rice production is estimated at 7.2 million tons (milled basis), up 0.2 million from last month, but 7 percent below last year. Harvested area remains unchanged from last month at 3.6 million hectares, and down 2 percent from last year. Higher than expected fertilizer usage, coupled with adequate irrigation supplies despite the earlier dry weather benefitted rice production. As of February 21, the Rio Grande do Sol Rice Institute reported about 13 percent of the crop was reported to be in the vegetative stage, 51 percent in reproductive stage, 36 percent mature, and 1 percent harvested. Rice prices remain low due to large carryover stocks from 1998/99 in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay.
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| Mar 1 2000 | Brazil: Favorable Weather Boosts Prospects for Cotton Crop |
Brazilian cotton production is estimated at 2.5 million bales, up 14 percent from last month and 19 percent above last year. Area harvested remains unchanged from last month, at 695,000 hectares but above last year. Production in Brazil has recently shifted from the more traditional states of Parana and Sao Paulo into the states of Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia, and Minas Gerais. Marginal cotton areas in Parana and Sao Paulo have given way to large mechanized commercial farms, mostly in Mato Grosso. The cotton crop in parts of western Parana and Sao Paulo suffered some damage due to earlier dryness in October to December. However, normal to above normal rainfall during January to February boosted overall yield prospects.
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| May 1 2000 | Brazil: Favorable Rainfall Boosts Soybean Production |
The 1999/2000 soybean crop is estimated at 31.0 million metric tons, up 2 percent from last month, but down 1 percent from last years crop. Harvested area is currently estimated at 13.3 million hectares, up 3 percent from last year. As of May 5, nearly 93 percent of the crop was reported harvested, compared to the 5-year average of 96 percent. With record yields, the state of Mato Grosso has surpassed Parana this season as Brazils leading producer of soybeans. The state of Bahia has registered a 9 percent increase in harvested area. Rainfall during the 1999/2000 growing season was extremely favorable in Mato Grosso, Goias and Bahia, significantly boosting crop yields. Collectively, these three states have more than made up for drought related production losses in Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Drought related production losses in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are reported to be around a million tons.
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| May 1 2000 | Brazil: Corn and Rice Production Raised Due to Favorable Weather |
Brazils 1999/2000 corn production is estimated at 33.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3 percent over last month and 2 percent above last year. Harvested area is at 12.5 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month. The first corn crop, which typically accounts for about 80 - 85 percent of the total production, was adversely impacted by the earlier drought in the southern states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, western Parana and Santa Catarina. However, the affect on total corn production is mitigated by larger area and extremely favorable weather conditions in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Bahia, and the Northeast. Recent field travel by USDAs Agricultural Counselor office in Brasilia indicate a strong safrinha (second) corn crop due to an area increase in Parana and favorable weather.
Brazils 1999/2000 rice production, on a milled basis, is estimated at 7.4 million tons, up 2 percent from last month, but 4 percent below last years crop. The harvested area is currently estimated at 3.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but about 3 percent below last years crop. The major rice producing areas in Brazil include Rio Grande do Sul (44%), North/Northeast Region (24%), Mato Grosso (10%), Santa Catarina (8%), Minas Gerais (4%), and Goias (3%). The growing season was characterized by a drought during planting and early vegetative stages in the southern states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. However, much of the rice crop in the key state of Rio Grande do Sul is irrigated and did not suffer any significant damage. Generally favorable weather conditions elsewhere in Brazil benefitted rice crop production.
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| Jul 1 2000 | Brazil: Rising Soybean Production Expected, Despite Strong Cotton and Corn Prices |
The 2000/01 soybean crop is forecasted at 32.8 million tons, up by 4 percent from last years crop. Harvested area is currently forecast at 13.4 million hectares, up by just 1 percent from last year. The potential for soybean expanded area will be hampered by expectations for good domestic cotton and corn prices next season. Overall, the outlook for the 2000/01 crop calls for a nearly steady area with the potential for a return to more normal yields throughout the country. Much depends upon the outcome of the crop in the southern state of Mato Grosso do Sul, which has had three consecutive drought years with low yields. Better than expected yields in Mato Grosso, and Bahia boosted soybean production during the 1999/2000 crop season and made up for production losses elsewhere in the country.
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| Aug 1 2000 | Brazil: Cotton Production up on Favorable Prices |
Brazil cotton production for 2000/01 is forecast at 3.2 million bales, up 0.3 million or 10 percent from both last month and last year. Harvested area is forecast at 0.8 million hectares, up 4 percent from last month, and up 11 percent from last year. Cotton production in Brazil has recently shifted from the traditional states of Parana and Sao Paulo into the states of Mato Grosso and Goias. Commercial plantations with access to credit and using increased levels of technological inputs combined with a favorable climate continue to boost yields in Mato Grosso. Favorable cotton prices fueled by increased domestic demand and reduced imports of cotton yarn and fabrics following the devaluation of the Real are contributing to the rapid area increase in states such as Mato Grosso. Relatively lower soybean prices are also encouraging some traditional soybean farmers in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana to shift area to either corn or cotton.
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| Aug 1 2000 | Brazil: Corn Production Estimate Lowered Due to Frost in Parana |
Brazils 1999/2000 total corn production is estimated at 33.0 million tons, down nearly 1 percent from last month, but 2 percent above last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but 2 percent above last year. Two crops of corn are cultivated: the first crop (planted October-December and harvested February-June), and the second, or Safrinha crop (planted January-February and harvested: June-September). The first-crop accounts for 80-85 percent of total corn production and the Safrinha accounts for the rest. The key first-crop producing states include Parana (22%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Minas Gerais (14%), Santa Catarina (11%), Sao Paulo (10%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (3%), and Mato Grosso (3%). Important Safrinha producing states include: Parana (37%), Sao Paulo (20%), Mato Grosso (15%), Mato Grosso do Sul (13%), and Goias (12%). The first crop experienced drought during the early part of the 1999/2000 growing season but managed to recover with minimal damage. A series of freezes associated with cold fronts from Argentina impacted winter crops in the southern state of Parana during mid-July. Preliminary indications of the impact of the freeze on Safrinha crop production is estimated to be around 500,000 tons.
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| Sep 1 2000 | Brazil: Winter Wheat Production Lower due to Frost in July |
Brazils wheat production for 2000/01 is forecast at 1.8 million tons, 22 percent below last month due to a July frost. Wheat output is estimated 28 percent below the 1999/2000 crop of 2.5 million tons. Harvested area is estimated at 1.35 million hectares, up 14 percent from last year. Yield is currently forecast at 1.7 tons per hectare, about 19 percent below last years record yield of 2.1 tons. The two key wheat producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul collectively produce more than 90 percent of the wheat crop. Wheat is generally planted during April to mid-June and harvested during September to November. A prolonged drought and a series of freezes adversely affected the wheat crop in the southern state of Parana on the 13th and 14th of July, and again on the 17th and 18th.
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| Oct 1 2000 | Brazil: Favorable Planting Weather Boosts Prospects For the 2000/01 Cotton Crop |
Brazils cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 3.4 million bales, up 6 percent from last month and 17 percent above last years crop. The estimated harvested area is up 7 percent from last month, and 19 percent from last year. Cotton is typically planted during September-November, and harvested between February and May. Wide-spread rains during September and early October benefitted planting operations. Increased domestic demand and favorable prices are rejuvenating cotton production in Brazil. Recently, there has been a noticeable a shift in production from the traditional states of Parana and Sao Paulo into the states of Mato Grosso and Goias (Center-West Region), Bahia (Northeast), and Minas Gerais (Southeast). Cotton production in marginal areas in the south has given way to large mechanized commercial farms in states such as Mato Grosso.
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| Oct 1 2000 | Brazil: Safrinha Corn Crop Adversely Impacted by Earlier Frost |
Brazils 1999/2000 total corn production is estimated at 32.0 million tons, down by 1 million tons from last month, and 1 percent below the 1998/1999 crop. Harvested area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but 2 percent above the previous year. The first-crop experienced drought during the early part of the 1999/2000 growing season but later managed to recover from the dry period with minimal damage. However, a series of freezes in mid-July adversely impacted the Safrinha or second corn crop in the southern states of Parana, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Two crops of corn are cultivated, the first-crop (Planting: October- December, Harvesting: February-June), and the second-crop known as the Safrinha (Planting: January-February, Harvesting: June-September). The first-crop accounts for 80-85 percent of total corn production and the Safrinha accounts for the rest. The key first-crop producing states include: Parana (22%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Minas Gerais (14%), Santa Catarina (11%), Sao Paulo (10%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (3%), and Mato Grosso (3%). Important Safrinha producing states include: Parana (37%), Sao Paulo (20%), Mato Grosso (15%), Mato Grosso do Sul (13%), and Goias (12%).
Planting conditions for 2000/01 corn production are extremely favorable. The 2000/01 total corn crop is estimated at 36.0 million tons, up 4 percent from last month and up 13 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 13 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 4 percent from last year. A tight supply of corn and increased demand by the poultry industry have resulted in very strong domestic prices. Farmers in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul are very likely to capitalize on the situation by growing more corn during the 2000/01 crop seasons. Safrinha acreage is also projected to increase as more farmers are likely to double-crop soybeans with corn than wheat during the upcoming season.
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| Oct 1 2000 | Brazil: Soy Yield Forecast Higher for the 2000/01 Crop |
Brazils MY2000/01 soybean crop (October - December planting) is forecast at 33.5 million metric tons, up by about 5 percent from last years crop. Harvested area is currently forecast at 13.4 million hectares, the same as last year. The potential for a net expansion in soybean area is dampened by expectations for good domestic cotton and corn prices next season. Traditional soybean farmers in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana are likely to plant more corn or cotton in response. Early indications are that the soybean area in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul is expected to decrease by about 100,000 hectares each, while Mato Grosso is poised to increase about 200,000 hectares over last year. It is also very likely that there will be a significant increase in the Safrinha or second corn crop in Parana, which immediately follows soybeans. In summary, the outlook for the 2000/2001 soybean crop calls for a nearly steady harvested area with the potential for a return to more normal yields throughout the country. Much depends upon the crop in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had three consecutive drought years with low yields.
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| Nov 1 2000 | Brazil: Increased Inputs and Favorable Weather Boost Soybean Crop |
Brazils 2000/01 soybean crop is forecast at 34.5 million tons, up 3 percent from last month, and 6 percent above last years crop. Harvested area remains unchanged from last month at 13.4 million hectares, with a yield of 2.58 MT/Ha. Preliminary reports on planting intentions by Safras & Mercado suggest a year-to-year area decrease in the states of Parana (3.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (2.2%), and Santa Catarina (2.8%). Offsetting increases in planted area are projected for Bahia (4.8%), Goias (1.4%), Minas Gerais (2.5%), Mato Grosso (2.6%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (1.4%). Reports also indicate farm inputs (fertilizers, lime, and pesticides) are up significantly this year due to increased availability of credit, better prices, and overall attractiveness of the soybean crop due to its easy marketability.
Widespread showers during the first week of November boosted soil moisture supplies in the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias, and Bahia. Further south, the recent break in the rains helped revive planting operations in Santa Catarina, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Nationally, about 18 percent of the crop was planted by November 3, compared to 14 percent last year.
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| Dec 1 2000 | Brazil: 2000/01 Record Corn Crop Forecast |
Brazils 2000/01 total corn production is estimated at a record 37.0 million tons, up about 3 percent from last month and 17 percent over last year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.5 million hectares, up nearly 4 percent from last month and 8 percent over last year. High domestic corn prices coupled with higher application rates of farm inputs and favorable weather conditions to date provide the optimism for a record corn crop.
Two crops of corn are cultivated, the main crop (Planted: October- December, Harvested: February-June), and the second-crop known as the Safrinha (Planted: January-February, Harvested: June-September). The main crop accounts for 80-85 percent of total corn production and the Safrinha accounts for the rest. The key producing states include: Parana (22%), Rio Grande do Sul (14%), Minas Gerais (14%), Santa Catarina (11%), Sao Paulo (10%), Goias (10%), Mato Grosso do Sul (3%), and Mato Grosso (3%). Important Safrinha producing states of Parana (37%), Sao Paulo (20%), Mato Grosso (15%), Mato Grosso do Sul (13%), and Goias (12%). Preliminary reports suggest significant area increase for the main crop in the key states of Parana (+17%), Rio Grande do Sul (+ 8%), Minas Gerais (9%), Santa Catarina (5%), Sao Paulo (17%), and Goias (+28%). Cumulative rainfall conditions during the September to November period have generally been very favorable for the crop.
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| Dec 1 2000 | Brazil: Favorable Weather Boosts Cotton Prospects |
Brazils 2000/01 cotton output is estimated at 3.7 million bales, up 9 percent from last month and 19 percent over 1999/2000, as rising domestic demand and subsequent higher prices rejuvenates cotton production. The major cotton producing states include: Mato Grosso (28% of production), Goias (19%), Sao Paulo (14%), Parana (12%), Minas Gerais (8%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (8%). Typically, the cotton crop is planted during September to November, and harvested between February and May. Preliminary reports indicate significant increases in the planted area in the key states of Mato Grosso (+30%), Parana (+20%), Goias (+14%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (+10%), while decreases are being reported for Minas Gerais (-17%) and Sao Paulo (-3%). Widespread rains during September to November generally benefited cotton planting operations. In addition, heavier application rates of fertilizers and herbicides are reportedly being used this year.
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| Feb 1 2001 | Brazil: 2000/01 Record Corn Production Anticipated As Yield Prospects Rise |
Brazils 2000/01 total corn production is forecast at a record 38.5 million tons, up 1.5 million tons or 4 percent from last month, and up 22 percent above last year. Harvested area is at 13.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month. The first corn crop (typically accounting for about 80-85 percent of total production) has benefitted from timely rains throughout the southern growing regions. Further boosting yield potential to a record total yield of 2.85 tons per hectare is the increase in farm input use (fertilizers, pesticides and improved seeds). However, dryness in the northeastern state of Bahia may have impacted corn yields. Safrinha, or second corn crop, prospects are for a smaller crop than normal, but above last years frost-damaged crop. Planting begins after the soybean harvest in the southern states of Brazil, typically in late February and March. For the safrinha crop, the state of Parana is the largest producer.
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| Feb 1 2001 | Brazil: Higher Yields Boost 2000/01 Soybean Production to Record Level |
Brazilian soybean production is forecast at a record 35.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons or 3 percent from last month and 7 percent above last years record crop. Last seasons crop was adjusted upwards by 700,000 tons to 33.2 million tons. Harvested area for 2000/01 increased by 200,000 hectares to 13.6 million hectares. Early harvest results support high yields in the states of Mato Grosso and Parana, Brazils largest and second largest producer of soybeans, respectively. Beneficial rains and increased farm inputs throughout the growing season have boosted yield prospects to a record level. Soybean yield is estimated at 2.61 Mt/ha, higher than the previous record of 2.50 Mt/ha in 1997/98.
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| Jun 1 2002 | Brazil: Record Soybean Acreage Forecast |
Brazils 2001/02 soybean crop remains unchanged this month and is currently estimated at a record 43.5 million tons. Brazils official statistics service, IBGE, released new acreage estimates based on April crop surveys, which indicate an even larger expansion of soybean acreage occurred in 2001/02 than previously believed. IBGE reported that soybean acreage increased over 2.4 million hectares this year, with one-third of that total occurring in Mato Grosso alone. Total national soybean area is currently estimated at a record 16.4 million hectares, up 0.5 million from last month, and up 2.4 million or 17 percent from last years record level.
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| May 1 2002 | Brazil: 2001/02 Corn Crop Reduced Due to Drought |
Brazils 2001/02 corn crop is currently estimated at 35.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 6.5 million or 16 percent from last years record harvest. Harvested area is estimated at 12.0 million hectares, down 0.3 million from last month and down 1.0 million or 8 percent from last year. Production is estimated lower as a result of drought and crop stress affecting the winter corn crop in central Brazil. Winter corn yield forecasts have been reduced to 5-year average levels of 2.0 tons per hectare, down from above-average expectations in April. Planting operations for the winter corn crop were completed in early April, with government surveys indicating sown area increased nearly 20 percent compared to last year as farmers responded to buoyant prices. Winter corn is heavily concentrated in key Center-South states, with Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo accounting for 70 percent of total area. This region has coincidentally been experiencing very dry conditions for the past 2-3 months, with critically low rainfall and declining soil moisture. Crop damage and losses in Parana alone are estimated near 1.0 million tons by local authorities. Unless substantial, widespread, and consistent rainfall is received in the winter corn heartland during the next few months, production can fall precipitously from current forecast levels.
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| Apr 1 2001 | Brazil: Record Cotton Production Forecast Due to Increased Area and Higher Yields |
Brazils 2000/01 total cotton production is forecast at a record of 3.9 million bales, up 200,000 bales or 5 percent from last month, and up 26 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 930,000 hectares, up 4 percent from last month. The cotton crop benefitted from favorable growing conditions, despite some January dryness reported in western Bahia and Minas Gerais. Field reports by USDA analysts indicate that farmers are benefitting significantly from the large-scale adoption of high yielding varieties and the implementation of sound cultural practices. The use of farm inputs for this years crop has also been very aggressive, particularly in the Center-West states, where production costs are generally lower than in the south.
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| Apr 1 2001 | Brazil: Record Corn Production Forecast Due to Increased Area and Higher Yields |
Brazilian 2000/01 total corn production is forecast at a record 39.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month, and up 25 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 14.0 million hectares, up 4 percent from last month. The main corn crop, which typically accounts for about 80-85 percent of the total production, has benefitted from favorable growing conditions, despite some January dryness in western Bahia and Minas Gerais. Field reports by USDA analysts indicate significant year-to-year area increases for both the main and Safrinha corn crops. Record yields of 2.85 tons per hectare are forecast due to increased use of farm inputs (fertilizers, pesticides and improved seeds). The Safrinha crop in the key states of Parana and Mato Grosso benefitted from favorable weather conditions at planting.
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| May 1 2001 | Brazil: Soybean Production Surges to Higher Record |
Brazils soybean production is forecast at a record 36.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons or 3 percent from last month and 7 percent above last years record crop. Production estimates from various sources have been increasing as harvest results come in and area estimates are revised higher. Harvested area increased 100,000 hectares to 13.7 million, and yields are estimated at a record 2.66 tons per hectare. The soybean harvest has essentially been completed in the states of Mato Grosso, Parana, Goias, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Heavy rains and saturated soil conditions have hampered harvesting operations (85 percent harvested) in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul.
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| Jun 1 2001 | Brazil: A Higher Record Crop for Soybeans |
Brazils soybean production in 2000/01 is forecast at a record 37.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3 percent from last month and 10 percent above last years record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 13.85 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month and about 2 percent from last years record area. The soybean yields is estimated at a record 2.71 tons per hectare. Area is adjusted upward based on a revised official estimate from the Brazilian Geographic and Statistics Institute (IBGE). The 2000/01 growing season was characterized by generally favorable growing conditions, with some pockets of dryness in Bahia and Minas Gerais. The favorable weather combined with increased usage of inputs by farmers has contributed to the bumper crop.
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| Jul 1 2001 | Brazil: Increased Area Boosts Wheat Prospects |
Brazil, one of the worlds largest wheat importers, is forecast to produce 2.6 million tons during the 2001/02 season, up 400,000 tons or 18 percent from last month. Harvested area is estimated at 1.50 million hectares, up 3 percent from last month. Wheat yield is estimated at 1.73 million tons per hectare, up 57 percent from last years drought and frost-damaged crop. In southern Brazil, an incidence of frost was reported in late June in parts of eastern Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. However, there are no reports of any significant damage to the wheat crop.
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| Jul 1 2001 | Brazil: Exceptional Safrinha Crop Boosts Total Corn Output To Record |
Brazils 2000/01 total corn production is forecast at a record 40.0 million tons, up 8.4 million or 26 percent last year. Harvested area is estimated at 14.0 million hectares, up 1.5 million from last year. The first or main corn crop (February-June harvest) which typically accounts for about 80-85 percent of total production is forecast at a record 35.0 million tons. Favorable prices at planting time for the Safrinha or second crop (June-September harvest), encouraged farmers to increase planting, resulting in projections of a near-record 5.0 million ton crop. A freeze during late June lowered yield expectations in parts of Mato Grosso do Sul. However, crop conditions elsewhere in the Center-West region remained very favorable. Record total corn yields of 2.86 tons per hectare are estimated due to the beneficial weather and increased usage of inputs to the main and Safrinha crops.
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| Aug 1 2001 | Brazil: Record Soybean Production Forecast as Corn to Drop in 2001/02 |
Brazils 2001/02 soybean crop, to be planted from October through December, is currently estimated at a record 39.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 1.5 million or 4 percent from the record 2000/01 harvest just completed. Optimistic pre-season estimates for sown area are bolstering the likelihood that a third consecutive record harvest will be achieved. Soybean area for 2000/01, at 15.0 million hectares, is up 0.7 million from last month and up 1.15 million or 8 percent from last year. Crop area expansion forecasts are being driven by significant changes in domestic corn/soy cost of production which heavily favor soybean cultivation. Consequently, corn area is currently projected to decline by 1.2 million hectares in 2001/02 from last years level, as growers aim to maximize their return. A significant majority of this swing acreage is forecast to shift from corn to soy in the traditional southern growing areas of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Santa Catarina. In addition, it is expected that strong market signals will continue to fuel expansion of soy cultivation in Center-West and northern states.
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| Jan 1 2002 | Brazil: Record Soybean Acreage Forecast |
Brazils 2001/02 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 42.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 3.7 million or 10 percent from last years bumper harvest. Production is estimated higher as a result of an upward revision in forecast crop area and excellent yield prospects over much of the growing region. As the planting season came to a close in December, Government and oilseed industry planting surveys revealed that Brazilian farmers heeded strong market signals favoring soybean cultivation, and sowed a record national area. Corn and cotton crops suffered declines in sown area, as land was diverted for more lucrative soybean production. Planting surveys indicate that cotton and main season corn area declined roughly 14 and 11 percent respectively. USDA currently forecasts 2001/02 soybean area at a record 15.65 million hectares, up 0.15 million from last month and up 1.68 million or 12 percent from last year.
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| Mar 1 2002 | Brazil: Record Soybean Area and Production Forecast |
Brazils 2001/02 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 43.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 4.5 million or 12 percent from last years bumper harvest. Production is estimated higher as a result of an upward revision in forecast crop acreage and excellent yield prospects over much of the growing region. Newly released Brazilian Government and private industry estimates revealed that Brazilian farmers increased soybean acreage above previous expectations. Corn and cotton crops suffered declines in sown area from last year, as land was diverted for more lucrative soybean production. Planting surveys indicate that corn and cotton acreage declined roughly 10 and 14 percent respectively. USDA currently forecasts 2001/02 soybean area at a record 15.9 million hectares, up 0.25 million from last month and up 1.93 million or 14 percent from last year.
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| May 1 2002 | Brazil: Corn Crop Expected to Stage a Recovery |
Brazils 2002/03 corn crop is currently forecast at 38.5 million tons, up 3.5 million or 10 percent from the drought-affected harvest in 2001/02. Harvested area is estimated at 13.0 million hectares, up 1.0 million or 8 percent from 2001/02. Crop yield is estimated slightly above the 5-year average at 2.96 tons per hectare, and up slightly from 2001/02. The planting period for the main season 2002/03 Brazilian corn crop is six months away. Initial estimates are extremely tentative and assume that 2001/02 winter corn production will be reduced by drought, setting the stage for continued strong domestic corn prices through the 2002/03 planting period. Total corn area is forecast to rebound to near-normal historical levels, erasing much of the soybean expansion that occurred in key southern states last year. The bulk of increased acreage is currently forecast to occur during the main summer crop, which normally represents about 85 percent of total production. Current corn production forecasts also assume a return to more favorable weather in 2002/03, which will benefit crop yields in both summer and winter growing seasons. This compares to 2001/02 when severe regional droughts affected crops in key producing zones in both summer and winter crop seasons.
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| Aug 1 2002 | Brazil: 2002/03 Corn Production Estimates Fall as Soy Outlook Brightens |
Brazils 2002/03 corn crop is estimated at 37.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month. Harvested area is estimated at 12.4 million hectares, down 0.6 million from last month. Brazils soybean crop is estimated at a record 48.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. USDA forecasts soybean area at a record 17.5 million hectares, up 0.5 million from last month. Initial estimates for 2002/03 corn production issued in May assumed that the domestic shortfall in 2001/02 would result in increased corn planting for 2002/03. Total corn area was forecast to rebound, strongly. This analysis held true through June when corn and soy profitability was in rough parity in the region. However, by the end of July strengthening soybean futures prices and a strongly depreciating Brazilian currency tipped the balance to favor soybean cultivation in 2002/03. Corn area is still expected to be up slightly from 2001/02.
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| Aug 1 1999 | BRAZIL: RICE CROP DROPS DUE TO LOWER AREA |
Brazils 1999/2000 rice area and production are lowered based on preliminary forecasts of planting intentions. Rice production forecast is reduced from 7.4 million tons (milled basis) to 7.2 million, down 3 percent from last month. Harvested area is forecast to fall from 4.0 million hectares to 3.8 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but up 4 percent from last season. The decrease in area this month is attributed to lack of available credit for farmers, increased production costs associated with the devaluation of the Real, and lower domestic prices for rice driven by excess production in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Rice plantings begin in October.
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| Sep 1 1999 | BRAZIL: RICE CROP DROPS DUE TO LOWER AREA |
Brazils 1999/2000 rice area and production are lowered based on preliminary forecasts of planting intentions. Rice production forecast is reduced from 7.4 million tons (milled basis) to 7.2 million, down 3 percent from last month. Harvested area is forecast to fall from 4.0 million hectares to 3.8 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but up 4 percent from last season. The decrease in area this month is attributed to lack of available credit for farmers, increased production costs associated with the devaluation of the Real, and lower domestic prices for rice driven by excess production in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. Rice plantings begin in October.
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| Oct 1 1999 | BRAZIL: RICE PRODUCTION ESTIMATED LOWER |
Brazils 1999/2000 rice production is estimated at 6.9 million tons (milled basis), down 0.3 million or 11 percent from last year due to lower area. Harvested area is reduced 3 percent this month to an estimated at 3.7 million hectares, as planting intentions indicate that producers will sow less rice as a result of generally higher production costs and less favorable rice prices. Planting begins in the Center-South in late October and continues until December.
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| Nov 1 1999 | BRAZIL: RECENT RAINS BENEFIT SOYBEAN PLANTINGS |
Brazils 1999/2000 soybean production is estimated at 31.0 million tons, up 2 percent from last month, but down about 5 percent from the 1997/98 record crop of 32.5 million tons. Harvested area is forecast upward by about 3 percent from last month to 12.9 million hectares, the same as a year ago. Recent rains have benefitted planting operations in many of the key soybean states. Soybean planting generally takes place over the period October through December. The crop was 16 percent planted by November 5, compared to 5 percent as of October 29 and 18 percent a year ago. Plantings are back on track in the key states of Parana (22%), Mato Grosso (25%), Mato Grosso do Sul (10%), Rio Grande do Sul (10%). Plantings are somewhat behind schedule in the states of Goias (14% vs. 22% in 1998) and Sao Paulo (4% vs. 8% in 1998), but no adverse impact is anticipated given the broad planting window.
A reduction in input use will limit yield in most states. Limestone consumption is reportedly down 8 to 10 percent below last year, while the use of chemicals may be down 15 percent. Devaluation of the real has raised the cost of imported inputs, and high debt levels is making financing difficult for many producers.
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| Dec 1 1999 | BRAZIL: CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED DUE TO DRYNESS IN SOUTH |
Brazils 1999/200 total corn production is estimated at 33.0 million tons, down by 1.0 million from last month, but 3 percent above last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.4 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month, but 1 percent above last year. Continued dryness in the south plus higher costs of fertilizers, pesticides and other inputs contributed to the reduction this month.
Rainfall during November has been significantly deficient in southern Brazil (Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul), and adequate-to-above average in Minas Gerais, Goias and Mato Grosso. Some isolated scattered showers over southern Brazil during the first week of December brought some reprieve, but more is needed to improve yield prospects. Corn planting is over 75 percent complete in the main producing center-south region. Since planting corn into December presents risks to farmers, producers are currently making the decision whether to switch to soybeans or wait and plant second-season corn in January or February.
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| Jun 1 2005 | Brazil: 2004/05 Corn Estimate Reduced Due to Drought |
Corn production in 2004/05 is estimated at 35.5 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month and down 15 percent from the previous year. Recent crop surveys from Brazilian government agencies indicate that summer corn crop losses were more severe than previously forecast, requiring additional downward revisions. Crop abandonment in Rio Grande do Sul reached 20 percent of sown area or roughly 230,000 hectares. In addition, dry weather negatively affected winter corn plantings in several key states, reducing sown area below intended levels. Winter corn area is forecast down approximately 10 percent from last month. Drier than normal growing conditions are also taking their toll in Parana, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul where 58 percent of the winter corn crop is grown. Crop yield in these areas is forecast well below last year. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Jun 1 2005 | Brazil: Soybean Expansion Forecast To Stall in 2005/06 |
Brazils 2005/06 soybean crop is estimated at a record 62.0 million tons, up 9.0 million from last years drought-affected harvest. Soybean area is estimated at 23.0 million hectares, up marginally from last year. Crop yields are forecast at a near-trend 2.7 tons per hectare on the assumption of normal weather and adequate control of Asian rust. The 2005/06 planting season is still months away, but the outlook for soybean production is markedly different than in recent years. Record soybean profits, which spawned rapid expansion in the past few years, have seemingly evaporated and with them the catalyst for continued growth. Many Brazilian producers experienced outright financial losses in the 2004/05 season despite achieving decent crop yields. Those in the severely drought-affected state of Rio Grande do Sul experienced severe losses. As Brazilian soybean farmers plan ahead for the new growing season, they are faced with difficult choices. Production costs are expected to remain high, their currency is gaining strength, and the outlook for international soybean prices is uncertain. With the anticipation of slim to negative profit margins on soybeans, growers are expected to have limited capacity to expand acreage this year. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Nov 1 2002 | Brazilian Soybean Expansion Continues As New and Existing Land Moves to Soybeans |
A weak local currency, combined
with strong international soybean
prices, is spurring Brazilian growers
to expand soybean acreage again this
year at the expense of summer corn.
Brazils 2002/03 soybean crop is
currently estimated at a record 49.0
million tons, up 1.0 million or 2
percent from last month, and 13
percent above last years bumper
harvest. Brazils 2002/03 soybean
area is forecast at a record 18.0
million hectares, up 0.5 million or 3
percent from last month, and up 10
percent from last year. With this
new estimate, soybean acreage
expands by an unprecedented 27
percent since 2000/01. Brazilian
growers are also placing new land
and pasture under soybean
cultivation. The largest percent of
area expansion will come from these
lands.
Though domestic corn prices are
currently at very high levels due to a
drought-induced shortage, farmers
appear to be intent on reducing corn acreage during the main summer season in favor of
expanding soybeans. Brazils 2002/03 corn production is estimated at 35.0 million tons, down
2.0 million or 5 percent from last month and down marginally from last years crop, as some
corn area shifts to soybeans. Harvested area is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, down 0.6
million from last month and down 2 percent from last year. Growers have already committed a
record 38 percent of the 2002/03 soybean crop in forward sales, locking in healthy returns. By
comparison, the domestic corn market is unstable and uncertain, with no guarantee of actual
prices at harvest. Corn seed sales are also reportedly down nearly 40 percent from last year.
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| Jan 1 2003 | Brazil: 2002/03 Corn Production Forecast Higher Despite Loss of Area to Soybeans |
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Brazils 2002/03 corn production is estimated at 36.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 3 percent
from last month and up marginally from last years drought-affected crop. Harvested area is
estimated at 11.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 2 percent from last
year. Summer corn yields were increased this month owing to plentiful rainfall in the primary
producing states, and field reports indicating crop conditions are excellent. Summer corn
production, therefore, increased 1.0 million tons from last month. A weak local currency
combined with strong international soybean prices spurred Brazilian growers to expand soybean
acreage again this year at the expense of corn. Brazilian farmers are responding to current
foreign exchange and commodity market conditions by allocating greater land resources toward
soybeans the crop with the strongest financial returns, greatest liquidity, and the least risk.
Though domestic corn prices are currently at very high levels due to a drought- induced shortage,
farmers are intent on reducing corn acreage during the main summer season in favor of
expanding soybeans.
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| Feb 1 2003 | Brazil: 2002/03 Soybean Crop Yields Forecast At Record Levels |
Brazils 2002/03 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 51.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month and up 7.5 million or 17 percent from last years harvest. The rainfall pattern
during the soybean crops vegetative and reproductive growth periods (Nov-Jan) has been almost ideal in primary growing regions. Harvested area is estimated at 18.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 10 percent from last years record level.
Soil moisture levels have been adequate to excellent for the entire post-planting season throughout Brazil, enabling the crop to grow without significant periods of stress. As Brazil enters the main harvest period of mid-February to April, the soybean crop has the
potential to achieve record yields in many states. This includes the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia, and Minas Gerias which represent 97 percent of total production. USDA currently forecasts 2002/03 national soybean yields at a record 2.83 tons per hectare, up roughly 6.5 percent from last years drought-affected yield. The benign weather pattern has been especially supportive of crop
development this year and is ensuring bumper crop prospects. Soil moisture reserves are adequate in nearly all regions to carry the bulk of the crop to maturity. Excessive rains during February could impede harvest progress and downgrade quality, but rainfall would have to reach extreme levels to negatively affect the current crops yield potential.
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| Mar 1 2003 | Brazil: 2002/03 Corn Production Increases Due to Higher Yield |
Brazils 2002/03 corn production is estimated at 37 million tons, up 1 million from last month and up 4 percent from last years drought-affected crop. Harvested area is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month and last year. Crop yield is estimated at a near-record 3.14 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last year.
The summer rainy season was slightly delayed this year, but began in earnest in late October. Beneficial soaking rains reached virtually all of the primary corn growing regions by early November, allowing plantings to be completed by early December. Plentiful rainfall and warm seasonal temperatures since planting have allowed the nations vast corn region to experience near-perfect growing conditions. Currently, the bulk of the crop is at or nearing harvest stage.
There have been no significant reports of crop stress, disease, or pest-related problems. Crop yields in most states are expected to reach near-record to record levels owing to the combination of high fertilizer use and excellent season-long moisture conditions. Corn area is expected to remain constant; however, there is an increase in the winter corn area offset by a decrease in the summer corn area.
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| Apr 1 2003 | Brazil: Record Summer Corn Yields Boost 2002/03 Production Prospects |
Brazils 2002/03 corn production is estimated at 37.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 1 percent from last month and up 6 percent on last years drought-affected crop. Harvested area is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month and last year. A weak local currency during the pre-planting months combined with strong international soybean prices spurred Brazilian growers to expand soybean acreage again this year at the expense of corn during the main summer growing season. On a seasonal basis, summer corn area is estimated to have declined nearly 4 percent to a historically low level of 8.8 million hectares, or the lowest level since 1965. Winter corn area, however, is forecast to increase nearly 12 percent to a new record high of 3.0 million hectares as relatively strong domestic corn prices have induced farmers to sow additional acreage in a season when more lucrative alternative crops are absent. Summer corn yields were increased to a record 3.4 tons per hectare this month owing to harvest results in the primary southern producing states. Season-long moisture conditions have been ideal, while farmers reportedly also increased fertilizer applications. (Michael Shean, 202/720-7366)
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| Jun 1 2003 | Brazil: Higher 2002/03 Soybean Area Estimate Results in Higher Production Forecast |
Brazils 2002/03 soybean crop is estimated at a record 52.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and 20 percent above last years bumper crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 18.4 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month and up 13 percent from last years record level. Yields are forecast at a record 2.83 tons per hectare. Brazils national statistical agency (IBGE) has raised its official estimate of national soybean area by 400,000 hectares owing to new survey data compiled in the important soybean expansion regions of the Center-West and Northeast. The soybean area estimate in Mato Grosso alone increased 300,000 hectares. A significant outbreak of rust was widely reported in Mato Grosso and Bahia this season, with damage estimates ranging from 1.0-2.0 million tons. However, many private analysts report that production losses are overstated to some degree, and that production prospects prior to the rust episode were underestimated. In particular, soybean production in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are at surprisingly high levels, offsetting any rust-related losses reported in other states. Rio Grandes soybean crop is now believed to be 53 percent higher than last year and 27 percent above the previous record harvest in 2000/01. Meanwhile, Paranas soybean crop is estimated to be 13 percent above the record harvest achieved last year. Soybean harvest operations were completed in May.
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| Aug 1 2003 | Brazil: 2002/03 Corn Prospects Highly Favorable |
Corn production for 2002/03 is estimated at a record 45 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up 9.5 million from the previous year. For 2003/04, the corn crop forecast is unchanged at 37.5 million tons. Official survey results by IBGE, the official statistics agency, indicate higher than expected yields from the second crop harvest underway. Winter frosts that often affect the crop were not a problem this season. (For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at 202-720-7339 or Michael Shean at 202-720-7366)
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| Oct 1 2003 | Brazil: 2003/04 Record Soybean Expansion Forecast To Continue |
Brazils 2003/04 soybean crop, which will be sown from October to December, is currently estimated at a record 60.0 million tons, up 4.0 million from last month and 14 percent above last years bumper crop. This new forecast nearly equals a weather-reduced U.S. soybean crop now forecast at 67.2 million tons. Brazil crop area is forecast at a record 21.0 million hectares, up 1.0 million from last month and up 14 percent from last years record level. Yield is forecast at a record 2.86 tons per hectare, but slightly below the 10-year trend of 2.9 tons per hectare. The 2003/04 soybean planting season has just begun, with an estimated 1-2 percent of the crop reportedly sown as of October 6. Strong international soybean prices due to a lower forecast U.S. soybean crop are once again fueling a substantial expansion of acreage. In addition, Brazils domestic market is swamped with corn from the record 2002/03 harvest. Corn prices in Brazil are slightly higher than last year. The price ratio of corn to soybeans at present favors soy, creating a strong incentive to move additional corn acreage into soybeans. Forecasters estimate that summer (main season) corn area will decline between 0.7 and 1.3 million hectares this year, while soybean area will rise 2.0 to 2.6 million. Strong returns from soybean exports during the past three years are fueling additional land clearing and pasture conversion. Record summer dry-season fires for land preparation were recorded in the key expansion states of the Center-West in 2003. Soybean producers are poised to reap strong profits this year, and have committed a record 40 percent of the 2002/03 crop in forward sales. A record annual increase in soybean acreage is expected in 2003/04, topping the 2.0 million hectare rise recorded last season. Last year, soybean acreage grew 2.0 million hectares without any contribution of land switching from corn production. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Dec 1 2003 | Brazil: 2003/04 Wheat Production Forecast Higher |
Brazilian 2003/04 wheat production is estimated higher this month owing to better than expected crop yields and higher sown area. End-of-harvest reports from the prime southern growing states of Rio Grande do Sul and Parana indicate the crop escaped any serious weather-related problems this year and achieved record yields. USDA currently estimates 2003/04 wheat production at 5.2 million tons, up 0.5 million or 11 percent from last month, and up 2.3 million or 77 percent from last years frost and drought-affected crop. Crop area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, which is an increase of 21 percent or 470,000 hectares from last year. Wheat area grew in virtually every producing state. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Jan 1 2004 | Brazil: 2003/04 Corn Receives Ideal Rainfall, Production Forecast Higher |
The USDA estimates 2003/04 Brazil corn production at 40.0 million tons, up 2.5 million or 7 percent from last month, but down 5.0 million or 11 percent from last years exceptional harvest. Area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month, but down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last year. The increased production estimate is attributed to a month-to-month increase in estimated sown area, nearly ideal rainfall, and better moisture conditions in virtually all primary producing states. Official reports from public and private sector agricultural officials point to higher-than-expected planted corn area in the main summer growing season. FAS had expected the strong rally in CBOT soybean futures prices since July to lead to significantly lower summer corn acreage, with farmers reallocating available acreage to the more lucrative and liquid oilseed. Brazilian officials, however, are indicating that only a modest reduction in corn acreage occurred in key southern states, while it remained stable or increased in others. Meanwhile, weather has been extremely favorable for the fast developing summer crop, with current stored soil moisture adequate to carry much of the crop to harvest. Moisture is near ideal in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Goias, Mato Grosso, and Bahia, which together comprise nearly 70 percent of the total summer crop area. Summer crop yields are now forecast well above average, but below last years record level. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Feb 1 2004 | Brazil: 2003/04 Soybean Crop Forecast Increased to New Record Level |
Brazils 2003/04 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 61.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 8.5 million or 16 percent from last years bumper harvest. The rainfall pattern during the soybean crops vegetative and reproductive growth periods (November through January) has been nearly ideal in virtually all primary growing regions. Soil moisture levels have been adequate to excellent for the entire post-planting season throughout Brazil, enabling the crop to grow without significant periods of stress. With the approach of the main harvest period from mid-February to late-March, the Brazilian soybean crop has the potential to achieve record yields in most states. The exception is Rio Grande do Sul, where a month of dry weather likely has taken a slight toll on the crop during its sensitive reproductive growth phase. The crop in Rio Grande still has very good potential, but yields are currently forecast slightly below last years record. Nationwide, soybean growers are reportedly having success in keeping Asian rust under control this year, though outbreaks have been widely documented. Effective control of rust and other late season diseases through foliar applications of fungicides will assist in boosting overall crop yields this year. The USDA is currently forecasting 2003/04 national soybean yields at a record 2.9 tons per hectare, up roughly 2 percent from last years record level. Soil moisture reserves are adequate in nearly all regions to carry the bulk of the crop to maturity. Excessive rains during February could impede harvest progress and downgrade grain quality, but rainfall would have to reach extreme levels to negatively impact current crop yield potential. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Feb 1 2004 | Brazil: 2003/04 Corn Production Forecast Higher, Though Dryness a Concern |
The USDA estimates 2003/04 Brazilian corn production at 42.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 5 percent from last month but down 7 percent from last years record crop. Harvested area is estimated at 12.9 million hectares, up 0.4 million or 3 percent from last month and unchanged from last year. Crop yield is estimated well above average at 3.26 tons per hectare, but down 8 percent from last years record level. Summer corn area for 2002/03 is roughly the same as last year, despite strong relative returns compared to soybeans. According to government statistics, corn area declined in the major southern growing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, but increased in Center-West and Northeast states. Summer corn yield potential is generally excellent in most producing areas in Brazil, following timely and substantial rainfall over the bulk of the growing season. Subsoil moisture is sufficient in most areas to support the crop through maturation. Winter corn plantings are forecast mostly unchanged from last year, which is a break from the long-term trend of steady annual growth. Winter acreage is expected to stagnate near last years levels owing to a bumper summer harvest and record carryover stocks of corn from 2002/03. Winter crop area is estimated 1 percent higher than last year and production down 16 percent. Winter corn yields reached unprecedented levels last year owing to a lack of frost or drought, and are currently forecast to return to well-above-average levels in 2003/04. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Mar 1 2004 | Brazil: Soybean Crop Forecast Lower, But Still a Record |
Brazils 2003/04 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 59.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, but up 7.0 million or 13 percent from last years bumper harvest. Soybean area is estimated at a record 21.3 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month and up 2.9 million or 16 percent from last year. The cumulative rainfall pattern during the soybean crops vegetative and reproductive growth periods (Oct-Feb) has been near-to-above normal in virtually the entire growing region. However, periods of deficient or excessive rainfall did occur at mid-season, and are negatively affecting current crop prospects. Of note, January and February were dry months in important southern growing states, while February was excessively wet in localized areas of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Bahia. Rainfall records indicate that the current dry conditions gripping Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana are similar to those experienced in 2001/02, while in Rio Grande do Sul season-to-date showers have been well in excess of that analogue year. It should be noted that the 2001/02 season was especially harsh in Rio Grande do Sul, where drought conditions reduced yield prospects in the Dec-Feb period, and were then followed by excessive rains in March. As a result, soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul fell 25 percent in 2001/02. March conditions are critical to determining the yield potential of the southern crop, and USDA is actively monitoring crop progress. USDA acknowledges that crop yield potential in 2003/04 in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana is similar-to-worse than 2001/02, while yield potential in Rio Grande do Sul is above that achieved in 2001/02. In the important Center-West region, heavy late-season rains were received in many recent growing seasons and localized yield losses were common. However, the overall consequence of the rains regarding production losses has been modest. The influence of Asian rust on the current crop is unknown, and will take time to evaluate. Despite last seasons massive outbreak in Mato Grosso and Bahia, where government estimates indicate that 3.4 million tons of soybeans were lost (15 percent and 30 percent of the crop respectively), national crop production actually exceeded expectation. On a national basis, crop area and yield potential were seriously underestimated in the Feb-March period last year. In post-harvest months, typical 2002/03 soybean forecasts increased 3.0-4.5 million tons. Prior to recent negative weather events, USDA analysis indicated crop potential in 2003/04 was higher than 61.0 million tons under favorable weather and low pest or disease-related conditions. Its season-long forecasts for soybean production have therefore been conservative. Its current estimate includes the assessment that several million tons of soybean crop losses have occurred this year owing to adverse weather and rust. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Apr 1 2004 | Brazil: March Dryness Hits Southern Soybean Crop |
Brazilian soybean production for 2003/04 is estimated at a record 56.0 million tons, down 3.5 million tons from last month, but up 3.5 million from last years bumper crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 21.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 16 percent from last years record. Yield is forecast at 2.63 tons per hectare, down 8 percent from last year.
The 2003/04 soybean season began with favorable conditions for planting in most areas, with above normal rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, the state that has the most year-to-year yield variability. The prospect of severe damage in Northern and Center-West States from soybean rust loomed as a possibility if preventive spraying did not take place. Excessive rainfall in areas of the Center-West during February reduced yield potential, but drier than normal conditions in March were favorable for harvesting much of the main crop. In several southern states, dryness with intermittent showers in February caused localized stress while the crop in other areas was growing satisfactorily. Dryness intensified in March causing damage to exceed levels expected in an average year. Brazils harvest was 57 percent complete as of April 5.
USDA travelers in Brazil report extensive yield loss from dryness in western Parana and much of Rio Grande do Sul. Later soybeans that are not yet harvested show good biomass development and pod set, but fewer than normal seeds per pod and smaller than normal seeds. Crop reports indicate excellent crop conditions in Center-West and Northern States. Only a few farmers waited to spray for soybean rust instead of spraying preventively as recommended. Bi-seasonal applications of fungicide are reported to be offering excellent rust control. (For more information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0881.)
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| May 1 2004 | Brazil: 2003/04 Cotton Production Forecast Higher as Area Increases |
Brazil cotton production for 2003/04 is estimated at 5.65 million bales, up 0.25 million or 5 percent from last month and up 45 percent from last years crop. Harvested area is estimated at 1.03 million hectares, up 30,000 hectares or 3 percent from last month and up 40 percent from last year. Crop yield is estimated at a record 1.19 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from the previous record, set last year. Sown area rebounded sharply this year owing to strong international prices and healthy world demand for Brazils exportable surplus. The growing liquidity of cotton as a commodity in Brazil via forward contracting for export, as well as its high relative profitability, are spurring farmers to expand production. Cotton area increased by 30 percent or more in most major producing states. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| May 1 2004 | Brazil: 2003/04 Soybean Production Forecast Lower |
Brazil soybean production for 2003/04 is estimated at a record 53.5 million tons, down 2.5 million or 4 percent from last month, but up 2 percent from last years bumper crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 21.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 15 percent from last year. Crop yield is estimated at 2.51 tons per hectare, down 12 percent from last years record level. Sown area increased sharply again this year owing to strong international prices and healthy world demand for Brazils exportable soybean surplus. Drought conditions in several southern states caused sizable yield losses, as did outbreaks of Asian rust in a few Center-West states.
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| Aug 1 2004 | Brazil: Declining International Prices Reduce Prospects for Large Cotton Crop |
The 2004/05 Brazil cotton crop is forecast at 6.0 million bales, down 500,000 from last month, but up 200,000 from last year. The cotton area forecast is reduced from 1.15 million hectares to 1.09 million, due to falling international prices. The crop will be planted in September-November of 2004. Owing to high profitability of cotton in key producing states, area might grow in Mato Grosso and Bahia, but declines are expected in other producing states that lack capital and/or economies of scale. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| Oct 1 2004 | Brazil: Estimated Soybean Area Down Because of Declining Prices |
Brazils 2004/05 soybean area is forecast lower this month, down 0.5 million hectares to 23 million, but still higher than the record area of 21.3 million set last year. Similarly, production is forecast down 1.5 million tons to 64.5 million. The reduction in the estimated planted area is a result of lower soybean prices observed in Brazil as well as in the inter-regional markets. Interior prices at Cascaval, Parana, for instance, were at US$189.50 per ton on September 30, down from US$232.83 the previous month and US$286.16 the previous year. International prices in Rotterdam as of September 30 were US$260 per ton, down from US$279 in August and US$317 in September 2003. High reported input costs are expected to lower potential profits and therefore remove the incentive to expand area as quickly as previously estimated. Yield expectations remain largely unchanged at 2.80 tons per hectare. Below-normal precipitation in Mato Grosso in late September and early October may delay planting of the early crop but is not expected to affect overall yield or production. (For more information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0881.)
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| Feb 1 2005 | Brazil: Drought Conditions are Expected to Reduce Soybean Yields in Rio Grande do Sul |
Brazilian soybean production for 2004/05 is lowered this month to 63.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, but up 10.4 million from last years disease- and drought-reduced crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 23.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 20 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.74 tons per hectare, slightly below the record of 2.84 tons per hectare set in 2000/01.
USDA travelers reported extensive drought damage in Rio Grande do Sul, the fourth largest producing state. The crop on January 30 was flowering, of short stature, had less than normal canopy development, and had fewer than the normal number of internodes.
In Parana, overall crop condition is excellent. Crop conditions in Mato Grosso and Goias as of January 26 were good. Historically, February and March have been the most critical months for determining crop yield when excessive rainfall often makes harvesting difficult in those two states. Nationally, soybean rust is being found in many areas throughout the country, more broadly than last year, but local agriculturists report that farmers are doing a good job of spraying and do not expect any yield loss from the disease. (For further information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0881.)
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| Mar 1 2005 | Brazil: Soybean and Corn Estimates Reduced from Drought in Southern States |
Brazils soybean production for 2004/05 is estimated at 59.0 million tons, down 4.0 million from last month, but up 12 percent from last years drought and rust-afflicted crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 23.0 million hectares, up 7 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a below-average 2.57 tons per hectare. Brazilian corn production for 2004/05 is estimated at 39.5 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month and down 6 percent from last years crop. Harvested area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, down 0.4 million from last month and down 2 percent from last year. Crop yield is estimated slightly above average at 3.23 tons per hectare. Deepening drought over the past 3 months has adversely affected vegetative development, reproduction, and yield formation of early, mid, and late maturing soybean and corn varieties in key southern producing states.
Estimated soy and corn crop losses in the 50-60 percent range are forecast by agencies in Rio Grande do Sul, the worst hit state. Late season dryness has also negatively affected crops to a lesser extent in Santa Catarina and southern Parana. In the northern two-thirds of the soybean belt, growing conditions have been nearly ideal. Good season-long moisture availability in Center-West states intermixed with plentiful sunshine led to excellent crop growth and reproductive development. Soybean and corn yields in the region are reported to be at near-record to record levels, with early harvest results coming in well above expectations. Asian soybean rust has been widespread in the crop this year, but it is being managed more expertly this season. Brazilian authorities and farmers report that little to no discernable losses are expected this year from rust. The summer grain harvest is beginning to accelerate with close to 20 percent of the national soybean and 35 percent of the corn crop accounted for in early March. (For further information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366)
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| Apr 1 2005 | Brazil: Soybean and Corn Estimates Reduced Due to Drought |
Brazils 2004/05 soybean crop is currently estimated at a record 54.0 million tons, down 5.0 million from last month, but up 3 percent from last years drought and Asian rust effected harvest. Corn production is estimated at 38.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 8 percent from last year. The rainfall pattern during the summer growing season has been favorable for the majority of country, with the exception being the southern producing states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana. Drought developed in January in these southern states but had its greatest effect in Rio Grande do Sul, where 60-70 percent of the soybean crop and 50-60 percent of the summer corn crop were reportedly lost. Recently, crop surveys from Brazilian government agencies indicate that soybean crop losses were more severe than previously forecast, requiring additional downward revisions. In addition, dry weather is negatively affecting the winter corn crop in several key states. Drought conditions are taking hold in Parana, Sao Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul, where 58 percent of the winter corn crop is grown. Dry soil conditions delayed planting, preventing farmers from achieving their intended acreage, and the planting window is now closed. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)
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| May 1 2005 | Brazil: 2004/05 Soybean Estimate Reduced |
Brazils 2004/05 soybean crop is estimated lower this month at 53.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month. The output level remains a record; 0.4 million ton above last year. Harvested area is estimated at 22.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month. Rain at the end of the season in Rio Grande do Sul made harvesting difficult. In addition, some farmers abandoned fields that were in poor condition because of the extreme drought experienced during the growing season. Rains in Mato Grosso made threshing difficult, lowering realized harvest yields. The soybean harvest was reported by Safras & Mercado to be 93 percent complete as of April 29. The states with the most crop remaining are Rio Grande do Sul, which was 76 percent complete (10 percentage points behind normal) and Menas Gerais which was 89 percent complete (6 percentage points ahead of normal). Brazils statistical agency IBGE revised its estimates lower for a number of states this month indicating harvest results that are less than what had been forecast. (For more information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0881.)
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