| May 20 2022 | China Wheat: MY 2022/23 Production Projected Down From Last Year |
With China’s winter wheat crop nearing maturity and harvest, prospects continue to favor
above average production, but down from last year. China’s marketing year (MY) 2022/23
wheat production is forecasted at 135.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.95 million or
approximately 1 percent from last year, but up approximately 1 percent or 900,000 tons
from the 5-year average of 134.1 mmt (Figure 1). Wheat area for MY 2022/23 is
estimated at 23.4 million hectares (mha), down 170,000 ha or approximately 1 percent
from last year and down 2 percent or 480,000 ha from the 5-year average of 23.88 mha.
Yield is forecasted at 5.77 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), down 1 percent from last year’s
record of 5.81 mt/ha. This year’s yield is 3 percent above the 5-year average yield
expectation of 5.62 mt/ha.
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| Oct 20 2021 | China Soybean Production Declines while Corn Experiences Record Production |
USDA estimates China marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn production at a record 273.0
million metric tons (mmt), up 5 percent from last year and 5 percent above the 5-year
average of 260.3 mmt. Yield is estimated at a record 6.5 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha),
up 3 percent from last year and 5 percent from the 5-year average. Area is estimated at
42.0 million hectares (mha), up approximately 0.7 mha or 2 percent from last year (see
Figure 1). The major corn growing regions are in the Northeast provinces of Heilongjiang,
Jilin, and Inner Mongolia (see Figure 2).
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| May 19 2020 | China Cotton: Favorable 2020/21 Crop Planting Progress and Conditions |
USDA forecasts China’s 2020/21 cotton production at 26.5 million 480-pound bales (5.77 million metric tons), down 3 percent from last year, and down 4 percent from the 5-year average. Area is forecast at 3.3 million hectares (mha), down 4 percent from last year, but up 1 percent from the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 1,748 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), up 2 percent from last year and up 3 percent from the 5-year average of 1,697 kg/ha. Yield is at the long-term trend due to the increasing quantity of cotton area being planted in Xinjiang province where yield has nearly doubled compared to elsewhere in the country (Figure 1). Approximately 85 percent of total China cotton is now produced in Xinjiang. Cotton area in China has been decreasing in eastern areas and increasing in Xinjiang province (Figure 2).
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| Aug 29 2019 | China Soybeans: 2019/20 Production at a Record High |
China’s 2019/20 soybean production is forecast at a record high primarily due to a rise in area planted, which is
at a 5-year high. USDA forecasts production at 17 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.1 million from last year. This
season’s production is roughly 7 percent higher than last year’s record crop of 15.9 mmt (Figure 1). Area is
forecast at 9.1 million hectares, up 0.7 million or 8.3 percent from last year.
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| Dec 1 2017 | China Cotton: Record Yield |
China’s cotton production is estimated by USDA at 25.0 million 480 lb. bales (5.44 million metric tons), up 2 percent from last month, and up 10 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.13 million hectares, up 8 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 1,742 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), up 2 percent from the previous record of 1,708 kg/ha in 2016/17. (For more information, contact dath.mita@fas.usda.gov)
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| Aug 11 2017 | China: 2017/18 Cotton Production Outlook |
China’s major summer season crops include rice, corn, soybeans, peanuts, and cotton. The optimum planting window for these crops is typically April through May. Cotton planting started in April and continued through May, and the majority of the crops are now at various stages of early growth and development. The majority (approximately 52 percent) of China’s cotton crop is grown in Xinjiang province; the rest is grown in the yellow river basin (Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu) and in the North China plain. Moisture conditions have been generally favorable across the country. Early in the season the major growing regions received average to above-average rainfall, resulting in favorable conditions for planting and early plant growth. In the Yellow River Basin Plain and in North China, precipitation for the months of April and early May was generally normal with some localized dryness. In Xinjiang province, however, the cotton crop is mostly irrigated and early crop conditions are favorable. The graph below depicts satellite-derived vegetation index or NDVI (normalized difference vegetation indices) over the major cotton growing prefecture of Aksu in Xinjiang province, and indicates favorable crop growth and potentially higher yield.
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| Aug 25 2016 | China: 2016/17 Summer Crop Outlook |
China’s main summer crops include rice, corn, soybeans, peanuts, and cotton. The planting window is typically March through May, and the crops are now at various stages of development ranging from advanced vegetative to physiological maturity. Crop conditions over the main growing regions, as indicated by satellite-derived vegetative indices, have generally been favorable across the country.
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| Dec 2 2014 | Favorable Conditions for China’s 2015/16 Winter Wheat Crop |
Summary: China’s 2015/16 winter wheat crop was planted in October and is now in the emergence/tillering stage. The weather has been very favorable for planting and crop development this year. Widespread rainfall in September provided abundant soil moisture, and near to above-normal temperatures in October encouraged vigorous growth. Satellite imagery shows that crop emergence was faster than normal this year, and the crop should be well established before going into dormancy in December.
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| Aug 26 2014 | Summer Drought Limits Upside Potential for China Corn Yields |
USDA currently projects China’s 2014/15 corn production at 220.0 million tons, up 3.5 million tons from last year, based on higher area (36.8 million hectares). The projected yield of 6.03 tons per hectare is equal to the yield in 2013/14 and below the long-term trend. Although summer drought has affected local crop production, the national impact is not expected to be significant. According to Chinese government statistics, the extent and financial impact of the current drought is actually smaller than average.
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| Aug 30 2013 | Flooding in Northeast China - Impact on Crops To Be Determined |
Unusually heavy rainfall (40 to 50 percent above normal) was recorded in Northeast China this summer, leading to widespread flooding and waterlogged cropland. The rain was heaviest in northern and western Heilongjiang, eastern Inner Mongolia, and the mountainous areas of eastern Jilin and Liaoning. Total rainfall from June 1 through August 20 exceeded 300 mm (12 inches) across the region, with some locations reporting more than 700 mm (24 inches).
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| Apr 18 2013 | China - Current weather conditions for winter crops and spring planting |
April is a critical month in China for both winter crops (generally in the jointing to reproductive stage) and spring planting. The country is currently experiencing several different weather situations that may have a significant impact on crop yields for 2013/14. Conditions on the North China Plain are generally favorable. The crop situation was less favorable in the western part of the North China Plain. The Yangzte river basin received widespread moderate to heavy rainfall since January. And drought continues to intensify this month in southwest China.
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| Mar 29 2012 | China - Status of 2012/13 Winter Wheat |
China’s 2012/13 winter wheat crop was planted in September/October 2011 and will be harvested in May/June of 2012. Winter wheat accounts for about 94 percent of China’s total wheat output. The top winter wheat-producing provinces in China (Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu) are located on the North China Plain. Other important winter wheat provinces include Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Xinjiang.
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| Jan 14 2011 | Drought May Impact China's 2011 Winter Wheat Crop |
A serious drought has developed in eastern China over the past few months. Total precipitation has been scarce since October 2010, with some locations on the North China Plain receiving less than 10 percent of normal precipitation through December 2011. A lack of snow cover has deprived the dormant winter wheat crop of valuable moisture and protection from frigid temperatures and winds. Seasonably dry and cold weather is expected to continue for the next two weeks. The impact of the drought has been mitigated by the widespread availability of water for irrigation, but crop stress could become serious if the drought continues after the winter wheat emerges from dormancy in February/March 2011. Historically, the most important factors determining winter wheat yield in China has been the amount and distribution of rainfall during the reproduction/grain fill stage (April / May).
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| Aug 3 2010 | Heavy Rain Threaten Crops and Cities in the Yangtze River Basin |
Rainfall in many parts of China has been much heavier than normal in July 2010. The most concentrated rainfall was reported in mountainous areas of Sichuan, northern Hunan, eastern Hubei, and near the Jiangxi/Anhui border. Rainfall amounts in these areas have exceeded 500 millimeters (20 inches). Property damage from landslides, flash floods, broken dikes, and rising water has been extensive. Soil moisture is very high in the Yangtze basin and most of southern China from the weeks of heavy rain, so any additional rainfall will likely cause additional flood risks.
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| Apr 15 2009 | China 2009/10 Winter Wheat Situation |
The 2009/10 winter crop was planted in October 2008. The weather was favorable and the crop went into dormancy in good condition. Sown area for 2009/10 increased slightly. Drought conditions developed over several months. At its peak in February, almost 11 million hectares of wheat in northern China were affected by drought The drought was fought with intensive irrigation efforts and rainmaking technology Moderate to heavy precipitation from mid February through March ended the drought. The wheat crop is currently in good condition. Harvest will start in May.
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| Feb 2 2009 | Wheat Production Situation January 2009 |
In September of 2008 FOB Gulf prices for wheat were down slightly from prices in 2007, while prices for soybeans and corn were much higher, indicating the incentives to plant wheat for the 2009/10 crop have diminished compared to a year ago. Additionally, many market watchers have been reporting high input prices and lower availability of credit. With continuing low stock levels and fairly high prices compared to previous years, there are still incentives for Northern Hemisphere farmers to produce wheat, although they are less compelling than a year ago.
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| Feb 1 2008 | Massive Snowstorms Hit China |
China's worst snowstorms in nearly 50 years have brought rain, sleet, wet snow and sharply colder temperatures to most of eastern and central China, including a majority of China's winter wheat and rapeseed production areas. The snow, which arrived after January 10, covered all of the North China Plain except for Beijing, northern Shandong and northern Hebei, and extended from Inner Mongolia in the north to Guizhou in the south.
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| Jul 20 2007 | Flooding in Central China - Huai River Basin |
Heavy rain since mid-June has caused serious flooding and water logging in many parts of central China. According to local sources, as of mid-July more than 5.5 million hectares of cropland have been affected in 6 provinces (Anhui, Hubei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, and Sichuan). More than 400 people have died and about 3.19 million have been displaced. Economic losses are estimated at $4.25 billion dollars. Some analysts have described the current flooding along the Huai River as the worst in 50 years.
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| May 2 2007 | China - Winter Wheat and Rapeseed Update |
Unusually mild winter temperatures caused China's 2007/08 winter wheat and rapeseed crops to emerge from dormancy well ahead of schedule and grow abnormally fast, weakening their resistance to extreme weather. The mild winter also created ideal conditions for insects and plant diseases to thrive, but local authorities have taken appropriate control measures. Rainfall and temperatures have been highly variable in March and April.
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| Nov 1 2006 | China Winter Wheat Planting Situation - 2007/08 Season |
The planting season is ending for China's 2007/08 winter wheat crop, which was sown in September and October 2006 and will be harvested in May and June 2007. Mostly dry and warm weather allowed for rapid planting progress, but soil moisture levels in the main production areas are low and additional rain would help promote emergence and tillering before the crop enters dormancy in December.
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| Aug 23 2006 | Severe Drought in Chongqing Hurts Agricultural Production |
Unusually hot and dry weather has caused drought conditions to develop in the Sichuan Basin (Chongqing Municipality and Sichuan province). According to local sources, more than 1.3 million hectares of farmland suffers from drought as of August 16, and more than 280,000 hectares have been destroyed.
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| Jun 28 2006 | Recent Rain Improves Crop Conditions in Northeast China |
Widespread rainfall since June 1 has essentially ended a serious drought that covered a large section of Northeast China (Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning) this spring. Seasonal rainfall (March 1 - June 20) is now above normal and soil moisture levels are very favorable for heading spring wheat and vegetative corn, soybeans, and rice.
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| Jun 14 2006 | China Wheat Update - June 2006 |
USDA's June estimate for China's 2006/07 wheat crop is 97.5 million tons, unchanged from last month and slightly higher than last year's revised crop of 97.45 million tons. Winter wheat production is forecast at 92.0 million tons, unchanged from last year. Total wheat area was revised upward this month to 23.1 million hectares based on information from Chinese government sources. The weather in May was generally favorable for winter wheat development across the North China Plain. Timely showers at the end of the month brought needed moisture to the Yellow River basin, where the reproducing/filling crop had been stressed by spring drought. Meanwhile, near-normal rainfall and temperatures in May benefited the filling/maturing crop in the Yangtze and Huai river basins.
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| Apr 20 2006 | China Winter Wheat Update - April 2006 |
China's 2006/07 winter wheat crop is progressing normally. It is now in the jointing stage in the Yellow River basin and in the boot/flowering stage in the southern part of the North China Plain. Temperatures have been generally warmer than normal since January, which caused the crops to emerge from dormancy ahead of schedule and develop rapidly in early spring.
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| Feb 9 2006 | Foreign Cotton Area and Production for 2006/07 Expected to Increase |
Many factors influence farmers' decisions at planting time. Cotton prices, prices of competing crops and government programs play an important role in determining area planted to cotton. The Cotlook A-Index provides a good indication of the direction of world prices.
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| Jan 27 2006 | China: 2006/07 Winter Wheat Situation |
Winter wheat accounts for more than 90 percent of China's total wheat output. The 2006/07 winter wheat crop was planted in September/October 2005 and will be harvested in May/June 2006. Widespread heavy rain from mid-August through the first week of October covered most winter wheat areas of the North China Plain (NCP), where more than 70 percent of the crop is grown.
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| Nov 22 2005 | China: Higher Rice Production in 2005/06 |
The USDA estimates China rice production for 2005/06 at 127.4 million tons (182.0 million tons, rough basis), up more than 2.0 million from last year. The estimated area of 29.0 million hectares is up 0.6 million from last year and is the highest area since 2000/01. Government incentives, including direct subsidies to rice farmers and the abolishment of agricultural taxes in most provinces, encouraged farmers to increase rice area in 2004 and 2005 after dropping to a record-low level of 26.5 million hectares in 2003.
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| Aug 2 2005 | China: Mixed Effects From Heavy Rains |
Unusually heavy rain caused significant flooding and economic losses in southern China in June. By early July, the heavy rain had moved north of the Yangtze River and caused additional flooding in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces. The weather became increasingly hot and dry in the southeast and in the Yangtze River valley during July, but Typhoon Haitang brought beneficial rain and cooler temperatures.
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| Nov 1 1999 | Chinese Government Releases 1998 Crop Production Statistics |
After a delay of several months, the Chinese Government has finally released 1998/99 production statistics for most crops. Production of total grain (rice, wheat, corn, other cereals, beans, and tubers) reached a record 512.3 million tons, up 18.1 million from 1997/98. A large decline in wheat production was more than offset by record corn production, which exceeded the previous crop by 28.7 million tons. The 1998/99 rice crop was the second-largest on record despite serious flooding in central and southern China. Oilseed production reached a record 23.1 million tons, boosted by record peanut output. Cotton production declined slightly in 1998/99 due to lower area and yield.
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| Nov 9 1999 | Chinas Winter Crops Area for 2000/2001 Projected to Increase; Wheat to Decrease |
Chinas farmers are planning to expand planted area for 2000/01 winter crops by about 2 percent, according to a government survey by the National Statistics Bureau. Rapeseed and cash crop area is expected to increase at the expense of staple grains such as wheat. The survey indicated a 1.5 percent decrease in winter wheat area compared to last year. The current USDA estimate for 1999/2000 wheat production is 115 million tons, the second highest on record. Official USDA estimates for 2000/01 Chinese wheat production will not be available until May.
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| Dec 27 1999 | China's Winter Wheat Eludes Cold Weather Damage |
Chinas 2000/2001 winter wheat crop was planted between late-September and November. Timely rain in October and warmer than normal autumn temperatures resulted in fairly good germination and tillering, with the result that in early December the crop was entering dormancy in good condition. Temperatures started dropping rapidly after December 15 and reached their lowest levels on December 20 and 21. Minimum temperatures dipped below 0o C as far south as Guangdong Province, and below 5o C in the province south of the Yangtze River. North of the Yangtze, minimum temperatures ranged from -6o to -14o C before gradually rising again.
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| Jun 9 2000 | China Wheat Update |
China's wheat production for 2000/01 is expected to be lower than last year due to a large reduction in planted area and lower estimated yields. The weather for the 2000/01 winter wheat crop was favorable through March, but below-normal rainfall in April and May reduced soil moisture levels and stressed wheat during heading, reproduction, and grain fill. Heavy rain in early June may have had a negative impact on the harvest in southern wheat-growing areas. Spring wheat planting is completed, and growing conditions are generally good.
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| Jul 12 2000 | China: Lower Area Cuts 2000/01 Corn Crop |
Chinas corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 122.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 2 percent from last month and down 5 percent from last year due to lower expected area and yield. Corn area is estimated at 24.5 million hectares, down 0.5 million from last month. The revised corn yield of 4.98 MT/Ha is close to the 5-year average and sightly higher than last year. Unfavorably hot and dry weather stressed the corn crop in the Northeast and the North China Plain last month, but the critical period for yields is July and August.
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| Aug 11 2000 | China Corn and Soybean Situation |
Chinas corn production for 2000/01 is estimated at 115.0 million tons, down 7 million from last month and down 13 million or 10 percent from last years bumper crop. Area is estimated at 24.5 million hectares, down 1.4 million from a year ago, as farmers responded to low market and procurement prices by reducing planted area. The largest area reduction were in the Northeast and the North China Plain, which together account for about 60 percent of Chinas total corn area. These losses were partially offset by increased area in southern and central China, where corn was planted as an alternative to early rice and wheat. The crop was seriously affected by drought in several key production provinces this summer, although recent widespread rainfall has improved yield prospects. The estimated yield of 4.69 tons/hectare is down 5 percent from last year and the lowest since the drought-impacted crop of 1997/98.
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| Aug 25 2000 | Typhoon Bilis Hits Taiwan and Southeastern China |
Typhoon Bilis, the most powerful storm to hit Asia this year, pounded southern Taiwan early Wednesday (local time) with very strong winds and torrential rain. The storm caused flash flooding and mudslides, and had a serious impact crops including second-crop rice, sugarcane, fruit and vegetables. Some livestock and poultry losses also occurred. Government officials said crops on more than 11,600 hectares of farmland were destroyed, and losses to agriculture, fishery and forestry industries were estimated at $90 million.
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| Dec 12 2000 | China - Higher Peanut and Soybean Production for 2000/01 |
Chinas peanut production for 2000/01 is estimated at a record 13.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month and up 3 percent from last year. The revision is based on information released by the Ministry of Agriculture, which recently reported that Chinas oilseed crop (peanuts, rapeseed, sesame, and minor oilseeds) reached 28.2 million tons in 2000, up 1.2 million or 8 percent from last year. Historically, peanuts comprise 45 to 50 percent of Chinas total oilseed crop. Area is estimated at a record 4.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month. This is the third consecutive record year for China's peanut area. The strong domestic market for edible oils and favorable prices relative to competing crops has encouraged farmers to shift into peanuts.
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| Dec 20 2000 | China Wheat Update |
The 2001/02 winter wheat crop was planted in September-October 2000, and is now mostly dormant. Rainfall from September through November was above normal over the main winter wheat production areas, providing adequate soil moisture for planting and germination.
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| Feb 20 2001 | China Winter Wheat Update - February 2001 |
Abundant precipitation and near-normal temperatures in the fall and winter of 2000/01 have created favorable growing conditions for China's 2001/02 winter wheat crop. If normal weather conditions continue through June, winter wheat yields will likely be higher than last year, when a serious spring drought caused significant crop losses.
China's total wheat production in 2000/01 was 102.0 million tons, down 11.9 million from the previous year, with yields of 3.78 MT/Ha. The first USDA area and production estimate for the 2001/02 wheat crop will be released on May 10.
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| Apr 13 2001 | China Winter Wheat Update - April 2001 |
Yield prospects are favorable for China's 2001/02 winter wheat crop, which is now in the jointing to heading stage (Crop calendar). Soil moisture levels are adequate to abundant across the North China Plain following unusually heavy precipitation in late winter and early spring. March weather was warmer and drier than normal, which encouraged rapid crop development. In April, scattered showers brought favorable moisture to western and southern parts of the North China Plain, although eastern areas remained dry. Assuming normal weather from April through June, 2001/02 winter wheat yields will likely be higher than last year, when a significant drought reduced yield in several provinces.
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| May 29 2001 | China Winter Wheat Update - May 2001 |
Yield prospects for China's 2001/02 winter wheat crop have declined over the past 50 days, as unusually hot and dry weather dominated the North China Plain. Soil moisture has been seriously depleted in parts of the region, and growing conditions have been stressful for the crop, which is now in the filling to maturing stage of development. Crop calendar - May 20, 2001
Harvesting is already underway in central China and southern sections of the North China Plain, although the bulk of the harvest will take place in early June. The weather in Northeast China was also warmer and drier than normal this spring, which may have delayed or prevented proper germination of the spring wheat crop.
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| Aug 14 2001 | China's Corn Production Forecast to Decline in 2001/02 |
Chinas 2001/02 corn production is currently estimated at 105.0 million tons, down 1 percent from last years poor crop. Estimated area is 23.5 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last year. Corn area reportedly increased in the Northeast, where some farmers shifted from soybeans, rice, and wheat into corn, but it remained steady on the North China Plain. The estimated yield of 4.47 tons per hectare is lower than the 5-year average and last year, but higher than the drought-reduced crop of 1997/98.
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| Sep 28 2001 | China: Bumper Cotton Crop Expected in 2001/02 |
China is expected to produce a bumper cotton crop in 2001/02 due to increased planted area and near-record estimated yield. Cotton production is currently estimated at 23.0 million bales (5.0 million tons), up 13 percent from last year and the largest crop since 1991/92. Planted area is estimated at 4.8 million hectares, up 20 percent from last year and up 29 percent from 1999/00. In two years, cotton area in China has increased by more than 1 million hectares, with the greatest area expansion taking place in the traditional cotton-growing provinces of eastern China. The estimated yield of 1043 kilograms per hectare is above the 5-year average and second only to last year's record yield.
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| Nov 7 2001 | China - Dry Conditions for 2002/03 Winter Wheat Planting |
The planting season for China's 2002/03 winter wheat crop began in mid-September and concluded by the end of October. Mostly dry and warmer-than-normal autumn weather allowed planting to take place without delay but caused soil moisture levels to drop significantly. Recent showers provided limited drought relief, but moisture conditions in the most important wheat-growing provinces remained unfavorably dry for germination. Additional rainfall or supplemental irrigation will be required to ensure normal growth and development before the crop enters dormancy in early December. Winter wheat area may decrease slightly in 2002/03, and spring wheat area is expected to continue its downward trend. Assuming a return to normal yields in 2002/03, total wheat production could equal or exceed the 2001/02 estimated crop of 94.0 million tons.
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| Feb 12 2002 | China: 2002/03 Winter Wheat Update |
Chinese farmers cut winter wheat plantings for the 2002/03 winter wheat crop, which was planted in September/October 2001, and will be harvested in June 2002. Most of the crop is grown in eastern China, and just 5 provinces (Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu) account for more than 70 percent of China's total wheat output. According to China's Ministry of Agriculture, farmers cut winter wheat area for 2002/03 in response to dry planting conditions, low domestic wheat prices, and attractive alternative crops. Initial reports put the reduction at less than 1 percent, but later government reports indicated that area may have dropped by nearly 4 percent from last year. Spring wheat area is also expected to continue its downward trend in 2002/03.
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| Jun 17 2002 | China: 2002/03 Wheat Update |
A combination of spring drought on the North China Plain and excessive rainfall in central China had a negative effect on this year's wheat crop. Chinas 2002/03 wheat production is estimated at 94.0 million tons (winter wheat, 87.0 million; spring wheat 7.0 million), down 2 million or 2 percent from last month but equal to last year. The estimated yield of 3.76 tons per hectare is similar to last year's drought-reduced crop and below the 5-year average. Total wheat area is estimated at 25.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down slightly from last year, based on data from an area survey conducted this spring by China's National Bureau of Statistics. Winter wheat area has been declining since 1998 for several reasons, including low prices, water shortages and increasing irrigation costs, and shifts to winter rapeseed, cotton, or cash crops. Spring wheat area is also expected to drop again this year in response to low prices and poor demand, but the weather has been generally favorable and production is expected to increase in 2002/03.
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| Aug 2 2002 | China - Flood Warning |
In May and June, torrential rain and localized flooding killed about 800 people and damaged crops and infrastructure in parts of western, central and southern China. Drier and warmer weather in July eased the threat of further flooding and allowed the affected areas to recover. However, the return of very heavy rain in late-July has revived the possibility of flooding in the Yangtze River Basin that could be as serious as the catastrophic floods of 1998.
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| Mar 3 2003 | China Wheat Situation |
Winter wheat accounts for more than 90 percent of Chinas total wheat output. Chinas 2003/04 winter wheat crop was planted in September/October 2002 and will be harvested in June 2003. The 2003/04 spring wheat crop will be planted in late-March/early April and harvested in late-summer. (Map) In 2002/03, China produced an estimated 91.0 million tons of wheat from 23.5 million hectares harvested. Despite drought conditions last spring, the estimated yield of 3.87 tons per hectare came close to the 5-year average. USDA will make its first estimate of China's 2003/04 wheat area and production on May 12, 2003.
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| Mar 31 2003 | China: Soy Producers Face Shifting Internal Policies and World Markets |
Chinese farmers face increasing exposure to world markets, but the Chinese government continues to protect them from the full effect of the world market with an assortment of strategies and policies. Expansion of Chinas soybean production is seen as evidence that China is more open to market forces, but not fully open to world markets. USDA's current forecast is for Chinas soybean production to expand to a record 16.4 million tons in 2002/03, up 6 percent from last year, and up 59 percent from 10 years ago.
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| Nov 22 2003 | China: Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Damaged Crops, Delayed Fieldwork |
Excessive rainfall from August through October 2003 caused major problems for Chinas 2003/04 summer crops, especially cotton. The unprecedented rainfall (more than 200 percent above normal in some areas) was in stark contrast to the situation in fall 2002 and 2001, when northern China experienced severe drought. Rainfall graphs clearly indicate that the heaviest amounts since August 1 were recorded in Henan, one of Chinas most important agricultural provinces, although every province in the region was wetter than normal for the period. Locally serious flooding was reported along the Wei River in Shanxi province and the Yellow River in Henan and Shandong provinces. Intermittent dry and warm periods (particularly after October 15) allowed for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting to eventually take place, but fieldwork progress was much slower than normal (up to 20 days behind schedule) and soils remained unusually wet through the end of October.
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| Nov 26 2003 | China: Wheat Update |
Chinese wheat production for 2003/04 is estimated at 87.0 million tons, down 3.3 million or 4 percent from last year and the smallest crop since 1988/89. (Official USDA forecast, November 2003) The total output includes an estimated 82.0 million tons of winter wheat and 5.0 million tons of spring wheat. Wheat area for 2003/04 is estimated at 22.3 million hectares, down 7 percent from last year and the lowest area on record. The estimated yield of 3.9 tons per hectare is higher than last year, despite unfavorably dry weather during planting and wet weather in southern production areas during the harvest. China's wheat yield peaked in 1997/98 at 4.1 tons per hectare and has been stable (3.7 - 4.0 Mt/Ha) for the past 5 years. USDA data indicates that production has dropped below the total domestic use (average 107108 million tons) for the past 4 years and ending stocks have dropped by almost 60.0 million tons during this period. In 2003/04, China is forecast to import about 0.5 million tons of wheat and export 1.3 million tons of mostly feed-quality wheat.
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| Mar 1 2004 | China: Wheat Update, February 2004 |
Chinas 2004 winter wheat crop is now coming out of dormancy and appears to be in fair to good condition. As of February 20, 2004, the winter wheat crop is jointing in southern and southwest China, tillering across the southern half of the North China Plain, and dormant-to-emerging in northern crop areas. Satellite imagery for February 14, 2004 clearly shows the gradual south-to-north crop progression, and vegetation index maps (derived from AVHRR-satellite imagery) for February 20, 2004, indicate that current vegetative conditions are equal or better than last year and better than normal.
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| Dec 14 2004 | China: 2005/06 Winter Wheat Prospects Are Good |
China's 2005/06 winter wheat prospects are good. Temperatures have been mild, and timely showers provided adequate soil moisture for planting, germination and tillering in most crop areas. Satellite imagery indicates that crop development as of the end of November was more vigorous than normal and better than last year. Winter wheat in the Yellow River basin is now semi-dormant. In southern wheat-growing areas, crops are still vegetative and normally become dormant by late-December.
The 2005/06 winter wheat crop was planted from late September through October 2004 and will be harvested in May/June 2005. The 2005/06 spring wheat crop, which accounts for about 6 to 8 percent of total output, will be planted in April/May and harvested in July/August. Initial USDA area and production estimates for China's 2005/06 wheat crop will be released on May 12, 2005.
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| May 12 2005 | China Cotton Situation for 2005/06 |
China's 2005/06 cotton production is forecast at 25.5 million bales (5.55 million tons), down 12 percent from last year's record crop. Area is forecast at 4.8 million hectares, down more than 15 percent from a year ago in response to lower profits from cotton farming. The forecast yield of 1156 kilograms per hectare is up 4 percent from last year and will be the second-highest yield on record if achieved. The yield forecast assumes normal weather for crop development and matches the long-term trend. (This is the first year that USDA has published its initial China cotton production forecast in May).
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| Apr 14 2005 | China: 2005/06 Winter Wheat Update |
Yield Prospects are Good. China's 2005/06 winter wheat crop was planted in September/October 2004 and will be harvested in May/June 2005. The weather this season has been favorable and yield prospects are very good. Rainfall since September 2004 has been close to normal on the North China Plain, where more than 70 percent of the winter wheat crop is grown.
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| Mar 10 2005 | Recent Rain Eases Drought in Southern China |
Light to moderate showers covered southeast China at the end of February and the first week of March, bringing vital moisture to a region that had been suffering from perhaps the worst drought in 50 years.
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