Crop Explorer - Production Briefs - Middle East and Turkey


Aug 12 2019 | Iraq Rice: Crop Bounces Back from Restricted Area Last Year
USDA forecasts 2019/20 Iraq rough rice production at 450,000 metric tons (mt), up 390,000 mt from last month, and up 420,000 mt from last year. Area is forecast at 95,000 hectares (ha), up 79,000 ha from last month, and up 87,000 ha from last year’s restricted area of 8,000 ha. Yield is forecast at 4.74 tons per hectare. Low flow in the Euphrates River in the spring and summer of 2018 forced the Government of Iraq to severely restrict rice planted area. The rice crop for 2018/19 was almost nonexistent as a result. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov).

Aug 12 2019 | Turkey Wheat: Production Lowered due to Revisions in Area and Yield
USDA estimates 2019/20 Turkey wheat production at 19.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 2.0 mmt from last month and unchanged from last year. Area is estimated at 7.2 million hectares (mha), down 0.5 mha from last month, and down 0.4 mha from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.64 mt/ha, down 3 percent from last month. Wheat area is down from last year due to a shift to other crops. Early-season growing conditions were favorable but declined in May as dry conditions diminished yield and quality in the Southeast Anatolia, Central Anatolia, and Cukurova regions. Recent reports confirm the month-to-month reduction in yield. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov).

Aug 12 2019 | Turkey Sunflowerseed: Excellent Conditions Increase Yield Forecast
USDA forecasts 2019/20 Turkey sunflowerseed production at 1.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.2 mmt from last month and down slightly from last year. Area is forecast at 0.7 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month and up just slightly from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.40 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), up from 2.12 mt/ha last month. Growing conditions have been favorable all season. Well-timed precipitation over the sunflower growing regions has put this crop on pace for above-average yields. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov).

May 10 2019 | Iran Wheat: Record Yield and Production for 2019/20
Iran wheat production for 2019/20 is forecast at a record 16.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 2.3 mmt from last year’s crop of 14.5 mmt. Harvested area is forecast at 6.7 million hectares, unchanged from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 2.51 metric tons per hectare, up 16 percent from last year. High levels of precipitation have greatly benefited the winter grains crop. Some flooding was reported by local sources; however, damage appears to be minimal as observed by Sentinel-2a satellite image analysis. Most of the winter grains crop is in the flowering stage, with a few fields ready to begin harvest in the warmer southern provinces. Harvest will begin in late May and continues through late July. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov).

May 10 2019 | Iraq Wheat: 2019/20 Production up 60 Percent Due to Abundant Precipitation
Iraq wheat production for 2019/20 is forecast at 4.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 60 percent from last year’s crop of 3.0 mmt. Harvested area is forecast at 2.4 million hectares, up 41 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 2.00 metric tons per hectare, up 13 percent from last year. Last year the high producing northern provinces suffered from drought and conflict. This year, however the entire country received well-above- average precipitation. Resulting yields and production are at record levels as indicated by record high satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The winter grains crop is in late flowering and maturation stage. Harvest will begin in late May and continues through late July. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov).

May 10 2019 | Syria Wheat: 2019/20 Production Rebounds from Last Year’s Drought By 140 Percent
USDA forecasts Syria wheat production for 2019/20 at 4.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 140 percent from last year’s crop of 2.0 mmt. Harvested area is forecast at 1.6 million hectares, up 45 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at a record 3.00 metric tons per hectare, up 65 percent from last year’s drought. Rainfall has been abundant the entire season since the start of planting in late October. The high-producing northern provinces have received significantly more precipitation than normal. Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which is a measure of plant biomass, has been at record levels throughout the growing period. Most of the crop is in the flowering and maturation stages. Harvest will begin in late May. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov).

Mar 8 2019 | Iraq Wheat: Lower Production Estimate Based on Below Normal Precipitation
USDA estimates 2018/19 Iraq wheat production at 3.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 1.0 mmt from last month, and down 25 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.7 million hectares (mha), down 0.6 mha from last month, and down 23 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.77 tons per hectare, up 1 percent from last month, but down 3 percent from last year. Recent reports confirm the decrease in production. The province of Nineveh in northern Iraq is a significant contributor to Iraq’s wheat production. This region is located just southwest of the city of Mosul and is highly rainfall dependent. Below-normal spring precipitation exacerbated an already difficult situation due to the ongoing conflict in that area. In addition, low flow in the Tigris River, which is the primary water supply for the irrigated crop in this region, was also reported to have reduced crop production. Iraq’s 2018/19 wheat harvest began in May and completed in July 2018. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.)

Feb 8 2019 | Turkey Cotton: End of Season Rain Reduces Harvest Estimate
USDA estimates 2018/19 Turkey cotton production at 3.7 million 480-pound bales, down 0.6 million from December, and down 8 percent from last year’s record. Harvested area is estimated at 520,000 hectares, unchanged from December, up 11 percent from last year and up 30 percent from the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 1,549 kilograms per hectare, down 14 percent from December. Planting began with ample soil moisture, and in some areas excessive rainfall necessitated replanting. Weather was favorable with good growing conditions except for isolated areas of excessive rainfall at harvest in the Aegean and GAP (Southeastern Anatolia) regions. Harvest was complete in December. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.)

Dec 11 2018 | Turkey Cotton: Harvest Ends with Estimated Record Crop
USDA estimates 2018/19 Turkey cotton production at 4.3 million 480-pound bales, down 0.2 million from last month, up 8 percent from last year’s record, and up 40 percent from the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 520,000 hectares, unchanged from last month, up 11 percent from last year and up 30 percent from the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 1,800 kilograms per hectare, down 4 percent from last month, down 3 percent from last year, but up 9 percent from the 5-year average. Planting began with ample soil moisture, and in some areas excessive rainfall necessitated replanting. Although weather was extremely favorable with exceptional growing conditions throughout the season, localized excessive rainfall and insect damage likely reduced yield in the Aegean and GAP (Southeastern Anatolia) regions. Harvest is complete. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.)

Nov 8 2018 | Turkey Cotton: Estimated Production Up 47 Percent from the 5-year Average
USDA estimates 2018/19 Turkey cotton production at 4.5 million 480-pound bales, unchanged from last month, up 13 percent from last year’s record, and up 47 percent from the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 520,000 hectares, unchanged from last month, up 11 percent from last year and up 30 percent from the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at 1,884 kilograms per hectare, unchanged from last month, up 2 percent from last year, and up 14 percent from the 5-year average. Planting began with ample soil moisture but in some areas excessive rainfall necessitated replanting. Weather was extremely favorable with exceptional growing conditions throughout the season. Isolated areas of heavy rainfall in the GAP (Southeastern Anatolia) region slowed harvest for a few days with reports of reduced quality. MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values indicate favorable yield prospects. Harvest is complete in the main cotton growing regions. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.)

Oct 11 2018 | Turkey Sunflowerseed: Record Yield Estimate Due to Excellent Growing Conditions
USDA estimates Turkey 2018/19 sunflowerseed production at 1.8 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.1 mmt from last month and up 0.3 mmt from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 750,000 hectares (ha) up 25,000 ha from last month and up 7 percent from last year. Precipitation and irrigation resources in the sunflower growing regions were above average for most of the planting window, followed by frequent and well-timed rains throughout development and maturation. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been above average for the entire sunflowerseed growing season. The estimated yield is at a record level of 2.40 tons per ha, unchanged from last month and up 8 percent from last year. Harvest started in August and usually continues through October. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov.)

Sep 12 2018 | Turkey Corn: Record Yield Forecast Due to Excellent Growing Conditions
USDA forecasts Turkey’s 2018/19 corn crop at 5.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.4 mmt from last month but down 0.5 mmt from last year. Harvested area forecast is unchanged from last month at 530,000 hectares, but down 12 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Aug 10 2018 | Turkey Sunseed: Exceptional Weather Conditions Boost Crop Forecast to Record Yield
Turkey sunseed production for 2018/19 is forecast at 1.7 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.2 mmt from last month and up 0.2 mmt from last year’s crop. Harvested area is forecast at 725,000 hectares (ha), against 700,000 ha last year. The month-to-month production change is based on an increase in forecast sunseed yield because of abundant and timely precipitation complemented by moderate temperatures across the sunseed growing region. Total sunseed yield is forecast at a record 2.40 tons per hectare, up 10 percent from last month and up 8 percent from last year. Satellite data indicates above-average sunseed plant biomass as measured by vegetation indices, providing additional confirmation that the growing conditions have been very favorable. Sunseed harvest usually begins in late August and continues through October. Area, yield, and production estimates for Turkey sunseed are available on PSD Online. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Aug 10 2018 | Iraq Rice: Euphrates River Low Flow Mandates Restricted Rice Planting
Rough rice production for 2018/19 is forecast at 65,000 metric tons (mt), down 115,000 mt from last month, and down 250,000 mt from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 20,000 hectares (ha), down 35,000 ha from last month and down 65,000 ha from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.25 tons per hectare, down slightly from last month and down 12 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Oct 12 2017 | Turkey Wheat: Record Production and Yield
USDA estimates Turkey wheat production for 2017/18 at 21.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.0 mmt or 5 percent from last month, and up 3.8 mmt or 22 percent from last year. The area estimate is 7.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down just slightly from last year. The yield estimate of 2.69 tons per hectare is a record. Turkey has had an exceptional year regarding wheat production considering the challenging crop conditions at planting and establishment. A dry planting window followed by cold temperatures led to an earlier-than-normal dormancy, negatively impacting crop establishment. Beneficial snow cover, however, protected the crop over the winter months and once dormancy broke, provided plentiful soil moisture. This was followed by frequent and favorable amounts of spring precipitation during tillering and maturation. Despite the poor establishment, the beneficial spring promoted record yields. Harvest is finished and while news accounts are clear about a record crop, poor quality has been reported to be a problem. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Oct 12 2017 | Turkey Corn: Record Yield
USDA estimates Turkey corn production for 2017/18 at 6.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.5 mmt or 9 percent from last month, now up 0.5 mmt or 9 percent from last year. The area is estimated at 0.6 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha from last month and last year. The yield forecast of 10.00 tons per hectare is at a record level. Precipitation has been very favorable during the planting and development months. Excellent spring rains led to rapid plant growth and a strong satellite vegetation signal (normalized difference vegetation index, or NDVI), which is an indication of an abundant crop biomass. Similarly, satellite NDVI analysis suggests that high summer temperatures during tasseling have not been detrimental to crop growth. The corn crop this year is just below the record set in 2015/16 of 6.2 mmt. Harvest began in September and continues until the end of October. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Sep 12 2017 | Turkey Wheat: Crop Rebounds to a Record
USDA estimates Turkey wheat production for 2017/18 at 20.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 3 percent from last month and 16 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 7.8 million hectares, unchanged from both last month and last year. Fall dryness over the Anatolian Plateau delayed the winter-wheat planting campaign and reduced the time available for crop establishment. However, favorable snow cover protected winter crops against frost damage and fully replenished subsoil moisture reserves which greatly benefited the crops as they resumed spring growth. When growth resumed, winter wheat development was two to three weeks behind normal. From early April through July, the weather was excellent and allowed the crop to make up for the early delay in development. Yield is forecast at 2.56 tons per hectare, 3 percent above last month and 16 percent above last year. Harvest was likely complete by early September. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Jul 12 2017 | Turkey Wheat and Barley: Abundant Soil Moisture Supports Late Season Improvement
Fall dryness over the Anatolian Plateau delayed the winter-grain planting campaign and reduced the time available for crop establishment. Favorable snow cover protected winter crops against frost damage, and above-average spring precipitation replenished soil moisture reserves which benefited the crops as they resumed spring growth. As a result, the winter crops were able to recover from the dry fall.

Jun 9 2017 | Turkey Wheat: Abundant Soil Moisture Supports Late Season Improvement
Turkey wheat production for 2017/18 is forecast at 18.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.5 mmt from last month and up 0.8 mmt from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 7.8 million hectares compared to 7.7 last month with no change from last year. The 2017/18 winter wheat crop is two to three weeks behind last year’s rapid development pace and slightly behind the long-term average. Fall dryness over the Anatolian Plateau delayed the winter wheat planting campaign and reduced the time for available crop establishment. Favorable snow cover protected winter crops against frost damage and fully replenished subsoil moisture reserves which benefited the crops as they resumed spring growth. Yield is forecast at 2.31 tons per hectare, 5 percent above last year and 2 percent above last month. Harvest typically begins in early July and is largely complete by the end of August. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Aug 12 2015 | Turkey Wheat: Record Level Crop but with Low Quality
USDA estimates 2015/16 Turkey wheat production at a record 19.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month and 4.3 million tons or 28 percent above last year’s very small crop. Area remains unchanged at 7.86 million hectares, but is up 0.15 million from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.48 tons per hectare, up 5.4 percent from last month and 25 percent from last year. The wheat crop in Central Anatolia is doing particularly well this season, with reports of record yields. This season, rainfall in Central Anatolia was much higher than it was last year. Crop quality, however, is expected to be poor as heavy rains have reduced quality and delayed harvest across Turkey. Wheat harvesting began along the Mediterranean Coast in late May and was finishing up during late July in the Southeast. (For more information, please contact William.Baker@fas.usda.gov)

Jun 11 2013 | Turkey Barley: Barley Production Severely Impacted by Drought
USDA forecasts Turkey’s 2014/15 barley production at 4.0 million tons against 7.3 million last year, a 45 percent change. Harvested area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares, up 0.07 million from last year. Turkey’s 2014/15 barley production estimate declined 1.8 million tons from last month due to decline in estimated yields. Yield is forecast at 1.18 metric tons per hectare, down 46 percent from last year and 46 percent below the 5-year average. Dry conditions persisted throughout the season in the GAP, Cukurova and Central Anatolia winter grains regions. In addition, a cold snap in the Central Anatolia region during early April at flowering was severe enough to also cause additional damage. In recent years, a large part of the barley production has expanded into the GAP region. Below normal precipitation for the entire season was measured over the Sanliufra area in the GAP region and the losses in this important barley growing area have contributed to an overall decline in total barley production.

Sep 12 2013 | Iran Wheat: 2013/14 Production Strong – But, Production Lowered on Less than Expected
The USDA estimate for Iran wheat yield for 2013/14 is 2.07 million tons per hectare, down from 2.21 million tons last month. Both 2013/14 wheat production and yields for Iran were above last year with a crop production estimated at 14.5 million tons, which 500,000 tons above last year’s crop. Good weather conditions throughout the Middle East resulted in above-average winter grains crops across the Fertile Crescent (Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran). Satellite imagery derived “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index” (NDVI – a measure of active plant biomass) anomaly indicated an above average crop.

May 9 2014 | Iran Wheat: Drought in key northeastern winter grains region
USDA forecasts Iran’s 2014/15 wheat production at 13.0 million tons, down 1.5 million tons or 10 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 6.8 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2.8 percent. Yield is estimated at 1.91 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), down from 2.07 MT/Ha from last year. Iran had poor winter precipitation in the important northeastern grains areas of (Golestan and Khorasan) that represents nearly 19 percent of the total production. Satellite vegetation index data indicates the crop in this region to be well below average. The key southern wheat regions of Khuzestan and Fars received good winter precipitation and are expected to be just above average production levels.

May 9 2014 | Iraq Wheat: Favorable national precipitation allows for above average forecast
USDA forecasts Iraq’s 2014/15 wheat production at 3.5 million tons, up 0.2 million tons or 6.1 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 2.46 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares or 4.1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.42 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), up from 1.29 MT/Ha last year. Wheat production in Iraq is forecast above last year’s record production. High government support prices that encouraged an increase in planting combined with favorable nation-wide winter precipitation has Iraq is on target to produce an above average crop.

May 9 2014 | Syria Wheat: Severe drought along western winter grains significantly impacts
USDA forecasts Syria’s 2014/15 wheat production at 2.5 million tons, down 1.5 million or 38 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 1.3 million hectares, down 0.3 million hectares or 16 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.92 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), down 0.79 MT/Ha from last year. Syria is experiencing a continued drought along the western grains region with the province of Aleppo being the hardest impacted. However, the wheat crop in the Northeast Al Hasakah region, which produces 36 percent of the total winter grains, has been much less affected due to more favorable precipitation.

May 9 2014 | Turkey Wheat: Drought and late freeze in the Anatolia region unfavorable
USDA forecasts Turkey’s 2014/15 wheat production at 15.0 million tons, down 3.0 million or 17 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 7.7 million hectares, almost no change from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.95 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), down 0.39 MT/Ha from last year. Turkey reported late wheat germination in the Cukurova and Central Anatolia regions due to low soil moisture. Persistent dry weather and then a freeze in early April over the Anatolia plateau when the crop was in early flowering have been the primary factors leading to the decrease in forecasted production.

Jun 17 2014 | Turkey Barley: Barley Production Severely Impacted by Drought
USDA forecasts Turkey’s 2014/15 barley production at 4.0 million tons against 7.3 million last year, a 45 percent change. Harvested area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares, up 0.07 million from last year. Turkey’s 2014/15 barley production estimate declined 1.8 million tons from last month due to decline in estimated yields. Yield is forecast at 1.18 metric tons per hectare, down 46 percent from last year and 46 percent below the 5-year average. Dry conditions persisted throughout the season in the GAP, Cukurova and Central Anatolia winter grains regions. In addition, a cold snap in the Central Anatolia region during early April at flowering was severe enough to also cause additional damage. In recent years, a large part of the barley production has expanded into the GAP region. Below normal precipitation for the entire season was measured over the Sanliufra area in the GAP region and the losses in this important barley growing area have contributed to an overall decline in total barley production.

Jun 12 2012 | Turkey Wheat: Production Lowest in Past 5 Years
Turkey’s 2012/13 wheat production is forecast at 16.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 2.3 million or 12 percent from last year. Yields are forecast well below average at 2.1 tons per hectare, down 12 percent from last year. Winter-grain growing conditions were harsh by normal standards this year, with heavy snows, late frosts, hail, and a widespread outbreak of snow mold (Fusarium nivale) in the Central Anatolian region. Severely affected crops were generally isolated to provinces in central Turkey. However, these regions are the country’s winter grain heartland, producing nearly 50 percent of total wheat production. Field reports indicate that new varieties were widely sown this year, which are less hardy than those they replaced, with harsh winter conditions and snow mold causing widespread losses. Crop development in the spring was visibly poor with thin crop stands and stunted growth. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)

Jul 12 2011 | Turkey’s Winter Grain Crop at Bumper Levels
Turkey’s 2011/12 wheat production is forecast at 18.5 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and up 1.5 million or 9 percent from last year. The 2011/12 barley crop is forecast at 6.5 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month and up 0.6 million or 10 percent from last year. Wheat yield is forecast at a record 2.40 tons per hectare, while barley yields are forecast at a near-record 2.03 tons per hectare. Winter grain growing conditions were aided by plentiful late season rainfall which slowed maturation and boosted average yields. Early harvest results from many regions indicate record or near-record yields. Grain quality is reported to be relatively poor, with protein content below average. Feed wheat supplies are expected to be higher than normal as a result. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366).

Jun 10 2010 | Middle East: Yellow Rust Epidemic Reduces 2010/11 Wheat Output
USDA estimates total wheat production in the Middle East region for 2010/11 at 38.8 million tons, down 2.3 million or 6 percent from last month, but up 5 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 17.8 million hectares, down 2 percent from last month, but up 5 percent from last year. Yield is forecast to decline by 4 percent to 2.18 tons per hectare, but remain slightly above average. Wheat yields in Syria, Turkey, and Lebanon were affected by a serious regional fungal disease outbreak. Winter grain growing conditions in much of the Middle East have been nearly ideal this season, with above normal rainfall and temperatures. These conditions led to lush vegetative crop development and strong wheat production prospects. The warm and humid growing environment, however, also provided an excellent breeding ground for a new and virulent strain of yellow stripe rust. A regional rust epidemic was declared by crop scientists from the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative (BGRI) and the International Center for Agricultural Research for the Dry Areas (ICARDA) in late April, with a warning of potentially significant crop losses this year. Yellow rust outbreaks have been reported in Syria, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. The fungal disease is primarily affecting soft bread wheat varieties, but is also reported in some hard wheat crops as well. The most serious crop reductions at this time are expected in Syria and southern Turkey, where the concentration of rust-affected crops are the highest. NDVI (vegetation indices) signatures in these regions were suggesting record potential yield prior to the epidemic. Heavy late-season rust infections, however, caused substantial vegetative damage and premature senescence. Crops are maturing an average of four to six weeks earlier than normal in the worst affected areas. Crop scientists familiar with the disease indicate that yield reductions of 35 to 50 percent are typical in seriously infected fields, while in the worst instances, nearly total crop loss is possible. USDA at this time is estimating Syria's 2010/11 wheat crop at 3.75 million tons, down 1.25 million or 25 percent from last month; Turkey's 2010/11 wheat crop at 17.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 5 percent from last month; Lebanon's 2010/11 wheat crop at 0.1 million tons, down 0.03 million or 23 percent. Harvest activities in the Middle East are ongoing and will continue in highland areas of Turkey and Iran through August. The actual extent of crop losses from the rust epidemic will become clearer in the coming months, as regional authorities review harvest and grain procurement results. (For additional information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)

May 11 2010 | World Cotton: Many Countries Contribute to 2010/11 Production Increase
World cotton production is forecast to increase to 113.9 million bales in 2010/11, up 11 percent from 2009/10. Harvested area is forecast to increase to 32.3 million hectares, up 7 percent from the previous year. Yields are forecast at 768 kilograms per hectare, up from 739 kilograms in 2009/10 and compared to the 5-year average of 759 kilograms.Many producing countries are contributing to the increase. U.S. output is forecast at 16.7 million bales, up 4.5 million from last year, and India production is forecast at 25.0 million bales, up 1.5 million. Brazil's output is forecast 0.95 million bales higher, with Pakistan up 0.7 million, Uzbekistan up 0.5 million and Turkey up 0.4 million.After the cotton industry faced excess cotton stocks for the 2008/09 marketing year and low prices starting in late 2008, the industry saw a reversal with diminished stocks in 2009/10 and higher prices from mid-2009. An improving world economy, especially in Asia, resulted in increased demand which has kept world cotton prices attractive and induced the rising output levels projected for 2010/11. World average yield decreased in 2009/10 with relatively poor crops in Australia, the United States, India, the EU-27, and Burkina. Closer-to-trend yields are forecast for the 2010/11 crop. (For further information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)

Apr 13 2010 | Turkey's 2009/10 Wheat Crop Estimated Higher
Turkey's 2009/10 wheat production is estimated at 18.0 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month and up 1.2 million or 7 percent from last year. Wheat area is estimated at 7.8 million hectares, down 0.9 million hectares from last month but up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year. Wheat yield was a record 2.31 tons per hectare. The 2009/10 wheat crop was harvested in July-August 2009, after extremely favorable winter growing conditions. Newly available crop estimates from the government of Turkey and the country's private grain trade indicate crop yields and production were slightly higher than previously expected. Winter rainfall totals were nearly double that of the previous year, with wet conditions boosting crop yield while also contributing to widespread grain quality problems. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366).

May 19 2009 | World 2009/10 Crop Area and Production Forecasts
The initial USDA country-level area and production estimates for 2009/10 grains, oilseeds, andcotton are provided this month. In previous years, only the initial grain estimates were releasedin May, but this year estimates for oilseeds and cotton are provided as well.World wheat area for 2009/10 is estimated at 224 million hectares, down less than 1 percentfrom last year. International prices in September 2008, when many Northern Hemisphere wheatproducers were deciding if they would plant, had declined from a year earlier while prices forcorn and soybeans were stronger. Wheat production is forecast at 658 million metric tons, down25 million tons from 2008/09, when excellent growing conditions occurred in many of the majorproducers.World corn area is forecast at 156 million hectares for 2009/10, unchanged from the previousyear. Reports of farmers foregoing corn planting because of high input costs have been receivedfrom many countries. Corn area is not increasing even though corn prices were high relative towheat, and to a lesser extent soybean, during December to February when many farmers weremaking their corn planting decisions. Corn production is forecast virtually unchanged at 788million tons as corn planting in the Northern Hemisphere is underway.World soybean area is forecast at 99 million hectares up 2 million. Production is forecast at 242million tons, up 29 million from 2008/09. Much of the increase results from an expectation ofrecovery in Argentina and Brazil which suffered from extreme drought in major producing areas.World international soybean/corn price ratios from October through December favored corn, buthigher production costs have favored soybeans, which require fewer inputs. (For moreinformation, contact Paul Provance 202-720-0873.)

Sep 12 2008 | Europe Corn: Balkan Crop Suffers From Dryness
The USDA estimates European Union corn production for 2008/09 at 58.1 million tons, 0.5million lower than last month but 10.8 million or 22.9 percent higher than last year. Area isestimated at 8.7 million hectares, up nominally from last month but up 0.4 million or 4 percentfrom last year. Yield is estimated at 6.65 tons per hectare, compared to 6.73 tons per hectare lastmonth and 5.65 tons per hectare last year. Estimated production was decreased significantly inthe Balkan countries because summer dryness significantly reduced potential yield. TotalAugust precipitation was particularly low across southeast Europe, drawing down soil moisturelevels. Romania's corn crop was lowered 0.7 million tons from last month to 7.5 million tons.Bulgaria was lowered 0.2 million tons to 1.2 million tons, and Greece was lowered 0.1 milliontons to 1.5 million tons. Serbia, a Balkan country but a non-member of the EU, also experienceddryness, and estimated corn output was lowered 0.5 million from last month to 6.0 million tons.Meanwhile, a larger-than-expected crop in Germany helped mitigate the Balkan corn losses.USDA estimates German production at 4.9 million tons, up 1.1 million from last year, and areaat 0.5 million hectares, based on official statistics indicating record production and area. Areaincreased significantly in 2008/09 due largely to the EU's late autumn announcement of'suspending the set-aside requirement, making further winter wheat planting in Germany nearlyimpossible, thereby forcing farmers to increase spring-sown crops, particularly corn. (For moreinformation, please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

Jul 11 2008 | Iran Wheat: Drought Reduces Crop
Total wheat production in Iran in 2008/09 is estimated at 10.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or17 percent from last month and down 33 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at5.9 million hectares, down 15 percent from last year, while yield is expected to decline by 21percent to 1.71 tons per hectare. Wheat yields were affected by a serious drought and hightemperatures during the 2008/09 growing season. Winter grain growing conditions over muchof Iran were significantly worse than last year owing to prolonged late season drought. Most ofIran's wheat growing regions had inadequate planting rains, with rainfall averaging 50 percentof normal during the important September through November period. Late rainfall did arrive inmid-November to help farmers get grain crops sown in the last few weeks of the plantingwindow; however, it is unknown whether total wheat area declined as a result, as happened inboth Iraq and Syria this year. As grain crops emerged from winter dormancy in March, severedrought conditions developed. Soil moisture models indicate that well above normaltemperatures combined with limited rainfall caused a sharp decline in plant-available-moisturebeginning in late February, and continued through crop maturity. These adverse growingconditions were prevalent in most major producing areas of Iran, and likely impacted bothrainfed and irrigated crop yields. Based on estimates from Iran's Ministry of Agriculture, 61percent of the country's wheat area is rainfed and 39 percent is irrigated. Satellite vegetationindex (NDVI) imagery in April 2008 indicated substantial problems in key wheat growingregions in Iran. As drought conditions deepened, the NDVI images provided clear evidence thatcrop conditions were much worse than last year in most areas of the country. The most severedeclines in crop yield potential were focused in northwest, northeast, and south central Iran -encompassing all the major producing provinces. Iran's Commerce Minister reported on June11th that harsh winter temperatures and widespread drought had significantly reduced wheatproduction, and that Iran needed to import a total of 5.0 million tons to meet its normal annualconsumption requirement. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7336.)

May 9 2008 | Middle East Wheat Production in 2008/09 Declines Owing to Drought
Total wheat production in the Middle East in 2008/09 is estimated at 34.9 million tons, down 4.9 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 18.1 million hectares, down 9 percent from last year, while yield is expected to decline by 4 percent to 1.93 tons per hectare. Winter-grain conditions in much of the Middle East are significantly worse than last year because of prolonged drought. Very high temperatures (30 to 35 degrees Celsius) in March and April exacerbated the moisture stress crops were experiencing as they proceeded through critical yield formation growth stages. Rainfall at planting time was almost non-existent in much of Iraq and Syria, causing major declines in rain-fed crop area. Northern Iraq and northeastern Syria could be categorized as agricultural disasters, with near-total grain losses. Meanwhile, in regions which did receive early season rainfall and had normal crop establishment (Turkey, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan), severe drought conditions developed during the winter and early spring, eventually engulfing most of the Middle East's primary wheat producing areas.Satellite imagery from January provided early indications of substantial problems in key rain-fed wheat growing areas in Iraq and Syria, and current vegetation-index analysis clearly indicates severe drought conditions and poor to non-existent crop vegetation on a large scale throughout the Middle East. The worst affected countries are Syria, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon. Iran and Turkey received beneficial early-season rainfall and are less severely affected at this time, but conditions in both countries have been rapidly deteriorating. (For more information, contact Michael Shean at 202-720-7366.)

Dec 11 2007 | Drought Reduces Turkeys Corn Area and Production
The USDA estimates Turkeys corn production in 2007/08 at 2.9 million tons, down 800,000tons from last month but up 100,000 from last year. Harvested corn area is forecast at 450,000hectares, down 100,000 hectares from last month but up 25,000 from last year. Overall corn areadeclined as drought reduced irrigation supplies for the important second crop season.

Oct 1 1997 | EAST EUROPE: HEAVY SUMMER RAINS PROMOTE CORN GROWTH
Through much of Eastern Europe from Hungary to Yugoslavia, corn production prospects are up. Production for Eastern Europe for 1997/98 is estimated at 28.5 million tons, up 9 percent from last month's estimate and 11 percent higher than last year. Widespread rains in July and early August have made the harvest of winter grains difficult but provided favorable moisture for summer crops. Corn production in the former Yugoslavia is projected at 9.5 million tons, 1.1 million tons higher than last month's estimate. Increased use of inputs along with favorable weather has boosted crop prospects. Romanian corn production is projected at 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month on the basis of higher yields. Hungarian corn production is projected at 6.2 million tons, up 0.7 million from September's estimate. For all three countries, this year's outlook will be the highest level for both production and yield since 1991/92.

Jul 1 1998 | TURKEY: GRAIN ESTIMATES INCREASED DUE TO FAVORABLE WEATHER
Turkey's 1998/99 wheat and barley production estimates are raised this month due to very favorable weather throughout the growing season. Wheat production is forecast at a record 18.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 9 percent from last month and up 13 percent from last year. Barley output is pegged at a record 7.8 million tons, up 0.6 million or 8 percent from last month and up 7 percent from 1997/98. Rainfall was excellent throughout Turkey, especially in the Central Anatolia Region, which accounts for about half the crop. For wheat, the sunni bug problems in Southeast Anatolia are reported to be less severe than in previous years. The extent of the damage will be fully known after completion of the harvests in the Southeast and Trace (European) regions.

Sep 1 1998 | TURKEY: COTTON PRODUCTION/IMPORT REGIME AND PRICE
On September 10, 1998, the Turkish Minister of Industry, announced that the Government of Turkey has decided to impose a 25-percent tariff on cotton imports and a surcharge of 40 cents per kilogram on cotton exports, effective through March 31, 1999. The Minister indicated that the measure was designed to encourage the local textile industry to increase its use of domestically produced cotton. According to information received from USDA's agricultural counselor in Turkey, the announcement included a 60-percent increase in the base prices for 1999 seed cotton purchases by cooperatives to TL 195,000/kg for Aegean and Antalya cotton, TL 170,000 for Southeastern cotton and TL 160,000 for Cukurova cotton, as of September 11 (US$ = TL 275,545). The Government of Turkey will also pay a 10 cent per kilogram premium to eligible farmers, although the premiums will not be available until January 1999. The Minister said that a new system of supporting agricultural production via premium payments will replace the old base price model, starting with cotton this marketing season, and will become effective for all commodities next year. Farmers are reported to be disappointed by the Minister's announcement because they were expecting higher base prices. Traders are unhappy because the new tariffs could restrict trading activities; and the textile mills are unhappy because local prices tend to rise above world market prices when imports are restricted.

May 1 2000 | Iran: Wheat Production Slashed Due to Drought
Irans 2000/01 wheat production is forecast at 7.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or 12 percent from last season due to the second consecutive year of drought. Reservoir levels and rivers are low, thus limiting the availability of water to irrigate the crops. Normally, about 70 percent of the wheat crop is irrigated. The satellite imagery-derived Normalized Difference of Vegetative Index (NDVI), which shows the vegetation vigor (greenness), indicates that current production potential is worse than last year for most of the country.

Jun 1 2000 | Eastern Europe: Widespread Drought and High Temperatures Reduce Wheat Production
Eastern Europes 2000/01 wheat crop is estimated at 28.7 million tons, down 9 percent from last month and about on par with last years 28.6 million ton crop. Harvested area is estimated at 8.9 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 7 percent from last years rain-soaked crop. Especially hard hit by this years combined spring drought and above average temperatures were the countries of Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. The spring moisture deficit was magnified in these southern Balkan countries because winter precipitation was also below normal. The eastern Europe drought began in mid-April and has continued throughout May and into June. However, the northern part of eastern Europe, particularly Poland, has recently been receiving occasional rainfall which may prevent a further reduction in yield potential. Wheat in eastern Europe is maturing ahead of normal due to the warm, dry conditions, and harvest should be underway by the end of June.

Jul 1 2000 | Eastern Europe: Drought and Weak Prices Hit Oilseed Production
Total Eastern European oilseed production in 2000/01 is forecast to fall 1.2 million tons or 20 percent, while harvested area is forecast to fall 0.5 million hectares, or 13 percent from last season. The rapeseed crop has been severely reduced by springtime dryness, while the summer crops of sunflower and soybeans continue to wither from the combined effects of a severe drought and a searing heat wave. According to reports, Bulgarias capital, Sofia recently recorded its highest temperature ever, while temperatures have reached 42 oC in Serbia. Weather difficulties began during late winter with a lack of moisture in the Balkans. Since mid-April, barely any rainfall has been received there, and temperatures have been significantly and consistently above average. Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have fared somewhat better, where rainfall has approached 70 percent of normal in some locals. The significant reduction in area can be attributed to low prices being offered at the beginning of the season after the collection of a bumper crop in 1999/2000. Polish rapeseed production is forecast down 29 percent to 0.8 million tons. Although a much smaller crop, Polands spring rapeseed seems to have been hit harder by the drought than the winter crop. Additional, but smaller, rapeseed reductions are estimated for the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Hungarys sunflowerseed production is estimated to drop 31 percent from last years near-record crop as more area was planted to grain. Yugoslavias sunflowerseed production is forecast down 17 percent to 0.3 million tons, and Bulgarias sunflowerseed production is estimated down 18 percent to 0.5 million tons. Romanian sunflowerseed production is forecast down 9 percent from last year to 1.0 million tons.

Jun 1 2001 | Turkey: Wheat Production Forecast Decreased
Turkeys wheat production for 2001/02 is projected at 16.0 million tons, down 1 million or 6 percent from last month. Area is unchanged from last month, but lower yields are expected due to warm and dry weather. The Central Anatolia region is the main wheat-growing area, accounting for about 40 percent of the countrys wheat production. The combination of low precipitation and warm winter temperatures in this region is expected to reduce wheat yields on a national basis. In contrast, the Thrace region, which produces about 10 percent of wheat, received above normal rainfall, and is expected to have above normal yields.

Jun 1 2001 | Eastern Europe: Wheat Output Increased with Recent Rains
Total wheat production in Eastern Europe in 2001/02 is forecast up from last month as a result of improved weather in the Balkans and a slight increase in projected planted area. Specifically, Romanias 2001/02 wheat production is forecast at 5.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month, and 0.6 million over last years drought-reduced harvest. Area was adjusted upward 13 percent from last month and also from last season to 1.7 million hectares. Romanias barley production is projected up 0.15 million tons from last month to 0.8 million, a 0.5 million increase from last seasons dismal crop. Further south, Bulgarias 2001/02 wheat production is now forecast at 3.0 million tons, up 0.35 million from last month and from last season. During April and May, a significant increase in precipitation improved prospects for the region that has been in a prolonged drought. Yugoslavias 2001/02 wheat crop is forecast at 4.5 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month and 1.0 million from last year. Yugoslavia has enjoyed the highest precipitation totals in the southern Balkans during the 2001/02 crop season. April and May continued to bring beneficial weather to the country as significant rains provided ample moisture.

Sep 1 2001 | Turkey: Wheat Production Cut
Turkeys 2001/02 wheat production is estimated at 15 million tons, down 1.0 million or 6 percent from last month and down 2.5 million or 14 percent from last year. This marks the second-lowest production level in a dozen years. Dry and warm weather conditions during the winter and spring months in Central Anatolia, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of Turkeys wheat production. Account for the reduction. The lack of rainfall also reduced wheat quality. Other regions, such as Adana and Antakya, also reported lower wheat harvests from last year. The exception is in Southeast Anatolia, where wheat production increased due to good rainfall and low pest infestation.

Apr 1 2002 | Turkey: Wheat Production Rises
Turkeys 2001/02 wheat production is estimated at 15.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month but down 2.5 million tons from a year earlier year. Turkeys low wheat production is attributed to dry and warm weather during the winter and spring months of 2000/01 in Central Anatolia, the region that accounts for nearly 40 percent of Turkeys wheat production. Lack of rainfall within Central Anatolia reduced both wheat quality and quantity. Other regions in the country, such as Adana and Antakya regions, also reported wheat harvests slightly below last year. The exception is Southeast Anatolia, where wheat production increased due to good rainfall and low pest infestation.

Jun 1 1999 | TURKEY: WHEAT AND BARLEY LOWERED DUE TO DRY WEATHER
The 1999/00 Turkey wheat production is forecast at 17.5 million tons, down 1.0 million this month and down 5 percent from 1998/99. Also, barley output is forecast at 7.4 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from last month and down 3 percent from 1998/99. Production is decreased due to unfavorably dry May weather that stressed the crops and reduced yield potential. According to the U.S. agricultural counselor in Ankara, agriculture in the Middle East is suffering from a scarcity of rain. Also, parts of Turkey have experienced insufficient rainfall including Central Anatolia, which is Turkey's bread basket. Although the rains seem to have picked up during June, which will bring some relief, crop yield prospects are lowered. Barley, which has not been affected as badly as wheat, due to its earlier maturation, is about ready for harvest. Precipitation during mid-June will be critical to the determination of final yields and quality of the crop in the Central Anatolia Region. In Southeastern Turkey, along the Syrian border, the drought is very serious. Southern parts of Sanliurfa and Mardin were hit badly. In some wheat, barley and red lentil fields, plants grew only eight or ten inches, never forming heads. Some farmers in this area may not harvest their crop, and losses are being estimated at up to thirty percent. Rainfall in most parts of Thrace and Cukurova regions were sufficient, and the Thrace crop appears to be normal. The wheat harvest in Cukurova started ten days ago and, according to first indications, the quality is very good. However, continuing rains in this area could negatively affect the quality of the late harvested crop. The Ministry of Agriculture is spraying 1.6 million hectares of wheat for Sunni bug, including 1.0 million in southeastern Anatolia and 0.6 million in Thrace. This was earlier estimated as 1.8 million hectares, but was lowered due to drought in the Southeast. The success of the spray depends upon dry conditions during the procedure. Another pest which poses a serious threat to the crop, "aelia rostrata," has not been a problem this year.

Jul 1 1999 | IRAN AND IRAQ: WHEAT AND BARLEY CROPS REDUCED BY DROUGHT
Wheat and barley production are lowered this month due to an extended dry period that lasted most of the season. In Iran, wheat production for 1999/2000 is projected at 8.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down nearly 30 percent from last season. Barley is projected at 1.6 million, down 0.2 million from last month and down 30 percent from last year. In northwest Iran, cumulative rainfall was 70 percent below normal from December1 to June 2; in the southern growing areas of Kerman, 57 percent below normal; and in the eastern region of Kordestan, rainfall was 75 percent below normal. For Iraq, wheat production is lowered 0.2 million tons from last month to 0.8 million, versus a 1.3 million ton crop last season. Barley is forecast to decline 0.2 million tons to 0.8 million and down 50 percent from last year . The same dry weather pattern that affected crops in Southeast Turkey, Syria, and Iran also negatively impacted Iraq's crops. No weather station data is received from Iraq.

Jul 1 1999 | TURKEY: WHEAT AND BARLEY CROPS REDUCED BY DROUGHT
According to the U.S. agriculture counselor and FAS analyst that recently returned from crop travel, the 1999/2000 wheat production is forecast at 16.5 million tons, down 1.0 million tons this month, while the barley crop is lowered 0.4 million tons to 7.0 million. Unfavorable dry weather from late-April through June across southeast Anatolia and sunni bug damage reduced wheat and barley yield prospects. Around 10 percent of the country's both wheat and barley production is produced in the southeast region. Southeast Anatolia produces significant quantities of durum wheat. Crops in the northern and western parts of Turkey are reported to be normal.

Dec 1 2002 | Iranian 2002/03 Wheat Harvest Highest in Four Years Due to Near-Normal Rainfall
Iranian wheat production for 2002/03 is estimated at 11.0 million tons, up 0.5 million or 5 percent from last month and up 2.5 million or 29 percent from last year. Increased production is largely attributable to favorable weather during the growing season and increased yields. In many of the wheat growing areas, seasonal rainfall totals reached near-normal to above-normal levels after three years of drought. In addition, guaranteed prices encouraged farmers to raise domestic production as part of a government plan to move toward self-sufficiency in wheat.

Mar 1 2003 | Iran: 2002/03 Wheat and Rice Production Higher due to Good Weather
Irans 2002/03 wheat production is estimated at 12 million tons, up 1 million or 9 percent from last month and 30 percent higher than last years drought-affected crop. Wheat area is estimated at 6.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month and 3 percent higher than last year. Rice production is estimated at 1.8 million tons (2.7 million, rough basis) up 0.4 million tons or 28 percent above last month and 36 percent above last years output. Rice area is revised upward to 0.6 million hectares, 17 percent above last year. Producers irrigate all rice areas and 70 percent of the wheat area. Despite deficits in irrigation supplies created by multiple years of drought, crops benefited from early season rainfall that occurred in the irrigated wheat regions in the west and in the rice regions along the Caspian Coast. Rainfall in most of the northern and northwestern rain-fed wheat regions was abundant and timely. Reports indicate that higher quality seeds and improved cultivation contributed to the higher production.

Apr 1 2003 | Turkey: 2002/03 Wheat Production Lower Than Expected
Turkeys 2002/03 wheat output is estimated at 17 million tons, down 1.5 million or 8 percent from last month, but up 10 percent from last years below-average output that resulted from localized drought. Wheat area for 2002/03 is estimated at 8.6 million hectares down slightly from last month, but up less than 1 percent from last year. The crop was planted late due to delayed rains in October 2001. Although above average winter rainfall raised prospects for the crop, warmer-than-normal weather induced crops out of dormancy earlier than usual in March. Critical spring rainfall was below normal in parts of the major grain region of Central Anatolia. Vegetation vigor derived from satellite data indicated that crop conditions in the region were similar to or only slightly better than the previous year and far below conditions in 2000/01 when a record wheat crop was harvested. (Maria Anulacion, 202/690-0139)

Oct 1 2003 | Iraq: Higher Area and Favorable Weather Raise 2003/04 Wheat Production
Iraq's 2003/04 wheat production is estimated at 2.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 0.2 million or 11 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 1.8 million hectares, up 0.6 million or 50 percent from last month and unchanged from last year. The large month-to-month production increase is primarily the result of revision in 2002/03 estimates as well as slight increases in both yield and area for 2003/04. Favorable rainfall in the north and increased water supplies for irrigated crops raised overall yields. Area and production estimates for 2003/04 and 2002/03 were revised higher based on data obtained by the Food & Agricultural Organization (FAO) Crop Assessment Mission to Iraq in June-July 2003. Higher FAO estimates are due in part to an accounting of production levels beyond recorded sales to silos, which had been the basis of earlier estimates. The report indicates that the effects of the war on cultivation and harvest of winter grains were nonexistent in the north and minimal elsewhere. (For more information, contact Maria Anulacion at 202-690-0139.)

Dec 1 2004 | Iran: Another Year of Bumper Wheat and Rice Crops for 2003/04
Irans 2003/04 wheat production is estimated at 12.4 million tons, up 1.4 million or 13 percent from last month and equal to last years record crop. Wheat area is estimated at 6.3 million hectares, up 2 percent from last year. Rice production is estimated at a record 2.2 million tons (3.3 million, rough basis), up 0.7 million tons or 47 percent above last month and 5 percent above last year. Rice area is revised upward to 0.63 million hectares, 5 percent above last year. The bumper crops are the result of a second consecutive year of good weather following the 1999-2001 drought. Rainfall during the season was again abundant and timely in most growing areas. Irans wheat production returned to its pre-drought production level last year, increasing by more than 25-30 percent from the previous three years drought-reduced crops. Producers are being encouraged to raise domestic wheat production to levels of self-sufficiency for domestic needs through intensified government support. Rice production has similarly benefited from two years of good weather and increased government support. Last years rice production jumped nearly 60 percent from drought-levels and was 12 percent higher than the previous record. (For more information, contact Maria Anulacion at 202-690-0139)

Feb 1 2004 | Turkey: Bumper Corn Crop on Record Area
Turkeys 2003/04 corn crop is estimated at a record 2.8 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month and 0.7 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 4.0 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last year. Area is estimated at a record 0.7 million hectares, up 0.13 million or 22 percent from last month and up 27 percent from last year, due to higher plantings of second crop corn. The second crop corn in the Aegean and Cukurova regions is planted after wheat is harvested in mid-June, and is irrigated. Corn output is highly dependent on the second crops harvest area in the Cukurova region, which typically produces nearly 40 percent of the nations corn. Cukurovas second crop corn increased significantly in 2003 as farmers planted more area to corn in former cotton areas. The cotton area in this region has been declining in recent years as new irrigated land became available for cotton in the Southeast Anatolian (GAP) region. Spring precipitation was normal to above-normal in the corn growing regions, providing sufficient moisture at planting and germination of the first crop and boosting the irrigation supply for the second crop. A dry and warmer than normal summer increased moisture requirements in the Eastern Marmara (30 percent of total corn production) and Cukurova regions but had no significant negative impact on total yield. (For more information, contact Maria Anulacion at 202-690-0139.)

May 1 2004 | Turkish wheat and barley production are estimated up slightly over last year
Turkish wheat and barley production are estimated up slightly over last year. Last years yields were reduced by late season hot, dry weather and wet harvest weather. This season, precipitation in the major grain growing region of Central Anatolia has been near- to above-normal. During March, dry and warmer-than-normal weather stressed crops and may have reduced yield potential in some areas. Near normal rainfall returned in April. May rainfall will be critical for good yields. Similarly in Syria, seasonal rainfall was near normal until March when dry weather prevailed. Rains returned in mid-April and provided some relief, but were too late for the barley crop, which did not develop properly. Syrias barley production is estimated lower, but wheat output is estimated similar in size to last years, provided the rains continue. The wheat crop was less affected since 60 percent is produced in irrigated areas. Irrigation supplies are reported to be adequate. Last year, Syrias wheat crop suffered from yield-reducing extreme temperatures during grain formation. In Iran, autumn weather was favorable for planting and establishment. Soil moisture has been adequate throughout this season, which is wetter and warmer than last year. The favorable growing conditions are expected to produce another large wheat crop for Iran. Iraq is also experiencing a wetter season this year compared to last. The favorable higher rainfall in the rainfed north, where most of the wheat and barley are produced, raises potential output over last year. Production in Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel is estimated stable at the same level as last year.

May 1 2004 | The Balkans
The Balkans (Serbia and Montenegro, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Albania) have experienced mostly beneficial growing conditions since fall planting. This seasons wet and mild winter brought ample moisture and little frost damage to autumn-seeded crops, unlike a year ago when the area suffered from drought and high winterkill. The Balkan wheat crop is estimated at 10.9 million tons, compared to last years record low 6.4 million tons. The 5-year average is 11.3 million tons. Specifically, the biggest grain producers of the former Yugoslovia can expect near-normal crops. Serbia and Montenegro, Croatia, and Bosnia/Herzegovina, are recovering from a miserable drought and frost-reduced crop last year and are estimated to produce 2.0 million tons (1.4 million for 2003/04), 840,000 tons (600,000), and 250,000 tons (195,000) during 2004/05, respectively. In addition, the countries of Macedonia and Albania should produce near-average levels of wheat, about 280,000 and 300,000 tons, respectively. Romania and Bulgaria are also set to rebound from last seasons regional drought and winter damage. Romania is estimated to produce 4.5 million tons in 2004/05, far above last years record low 2.0 million. Similarly recovering, Bulgarias production is estimated at 2.7 million (1.7 million last year). Initially, Romania and Bulgaria experienced difficulties at planting with extended rain events hampering normal fall sowings. Planting activities later increased, however, with the return of drier weather during November. Recently, dryness has persisted in eastern Romania and Bulgaria during March, April, and into early May. The Black Sea Coast and Lower Danube Valley are big producers of wheat, corn, and sunflower, but are also prone to periods of drought. A continued lack of rain in this important agricultural area would certainly reduce overall wheat production for these countries.

Aug 1 2004 | Bumper Crops in Central Europe
Summer Crops Corn Production in theCentral European Region 2003/04 2004/05July (forecast) 2004/05August (forecast) ------- (million tons) --------- Bulgaria 1.0 1.1 1.4 Hungary 4.6 6.5 7.0 Romania 6.5 9.2 10.0 Serbia 3.8 5.2 5.7 Near-ideal weather has continued to bolster central European corn yields. Rainfall has been above average all season, providing beneficial soil moisture for summer crops in almost every growing region. July is the most critical month for corn as it goes through the sensitive silking stage. This years crop experienced July temperatures that averaged about normal, with no periods of extreme heat that could damage vegetation. Rainfall continued to increase the regions moisture reserves and the soil moisture supplies should last through late summer, providing favorable final development of corn and sunflowers. Harvesting is conducted from September through November. A lack of storage facilities for the bumper crop appears to be one of the regions largest concerns. Winter Crops Wheat Production in theCentral European Region 2003/04 2004/05July (forecast) 2004/05August (forecast) ------- (million tons) --------- Bulgaria 1.7 2.9 3.2 Czech Republic 2.6 3.9 4.2 Poland 7.9 8.7 9.5 Slovakia 0.9 1.6 1.7 The wheat harvest, now in its final stages, is also large. High yields are being recorded across central Europe. Unlike the bitter winter endured by last years crop, the 2004/05 crop emerged largely unscathed from a relatively mild winter. Normal temperatures and frequent rainfall during spring combined to further enhance yield prospects. Continued rainfall during summer, however, has made field operations difficult and has delayed the winter grains harvest by about 2 weeks. While a very large crop is being realized, the heavy rain has raised concerns about lodging, and has created concerns about crop quality. According to sources in the region, however, these problems appear minor. A regional crop analyst from FAS in Washington is currently traveling through these countries to assess crop conditions. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

May 1 2005 | The 2005/06 wheat production for Syria
The 2005/06 wheat production for Syria is forecast at 4.2 million tons, down 100,000 tons from last years crop. Wheat yield for Syria in 2005/06 is projected to be slightly lower than last years yield, and lower than the 5-year average, given that little rain has been received since early March 2005. The decrease in wheat production is somewhat buffered given that 60 percent of Syrian wheat is irrigated. Harvested area is expected to remain the same in 2005/06 as last year at 1.7 million hectares. Barley in Syria is 97-99 percent rain fed, thus the 2005/06 barley crop is expected to be reduced more than wheat from the dry weather. Syrian barley production is estimated at 0.9 million tons. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)

May 1 2005 | Turkish wheat production in 2005/06 is forecast at 17.0 million tons
Turkish wheat production in 2005/06 is forecast at 17.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last year. Yields are expected to be below average due to low precipitation in the fall of 2004, especially in Central Anatolia. While precipitation in January and February 2005 was normal, cumulative precipitation is still much lower than normal. Harvested wheat area is forecast to remain the same as last year at 8.6 million hectares. Similarly, the barley production estimate for Turkey has been lowered to 0.9 million tons, given less than normal precipitation. No change from last years harvested area of 1 million hectares is expected for the Turkish barley crop of 2005/06.


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