Crop Explorer - Production Briefs - Southern Asia


May 12 2020 | India Cotton: 2019/20 Production Revised Upward
USDA estimates India cotton production for 2019/20 at 30.5 million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent from last month and up 18 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 13.3 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month and nearly 6 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 499 kilograms per hectare, up 1 percent from last month and up almost 12 percent from last year. This 3 percent revision in production from last month is based on the India Ministry of Agriculture’s higher estimates in Telangana. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)

Mar 10 2020 | India Rice: Record Yields Boost Production
USDA estimates India rice production for 2019/20 at a record 118.0 million metric tons (milled basis), up 2.6 percent from last month and up 1 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 44.0 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month and up marginally from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 4.02 tons per hectare, up 1 percent from last month and nearly 1 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)

Mar 10 2020 | India Corn: Yields Boost Production to Near Record Levels
USDA estimates 2019/20 India corn production at 28.5 million metric tons, down nearly 2 percent from last month but up 3 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.3 million hectares (mha), down 2 percent from last month, but up 1 percent from last year. The 2 percent decrease is based on India’s Ministry of Agriculture Second Advance Area Estimate. Yield is estimated at 3.06 metric tons per hectare, marginally up from last month, but up nearly 3 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)

Dec 10 2019 | Pakistan Cotton: Production Revised Down on Lower Arrival Data
USDA estimates Pakistan cotton production at 6.2 million 480-pound bales, down 0.8 million bales (11 percent) from last month, and down 1.4 million bales (18 percent) from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.2 million hectares (9 percent) from last year. The yield is estimated at 540 kilograms per hectare, down 12 percent from last month and down 25 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)

Dec 10 2019 | India Peanuts: Yields at Near-Record Levels
USDA estimates production will reach 6.2 million metric tons, up 31 percent from 2018. This 31 percent increase in production is due to ideal weather conditions in the main peanut producing area of Kutch, Gujarat. Harvested area is estimated to reach 4.7 million hectares, down nearly 6 percent from last year, but up 4 percent from last month. The 4 percent area increase is due to slightly higher planting in Gujarat and higher rabi estimates. Yield is estimated to reach 1.32 metric tons per hectare up 39 percent from last year’s low. (For more information please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)

Nov 8 2019 | India Cotton: Heavy Rains Negatively Impact Yields
USDA estimates India cotton production for 2019/20 at 30.0 million 480-pound bales, down nearly 2 percent from last month, but up 13 percent from the previous year. The year-to-year production increase is due to record area in the major cotton regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra, however, the month-to-month decrease is due to recent heavy rains. Harvested area is estimated at 13.0 million hectares, up slightly from the previous month and up 3 percent from 2018/19. Yield is estimated at 502 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from last month, but up nearly 10 percent from last year. (For more information please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)

Nov 8 2019 | Pakistan Cotton: Production Revised Down on Lower Arrival Data
USDA estimates Pakistan’s cotton production at 7.0 million 480-pound bales, down 0.6 million bales from last month, and down 0.6 million bales from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.2 million hectares from last year. The yield is estimated at 610 kilograms per hectare, down 8 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@usda.gov.)

Nov 8 2019 | India Soybeans: Above-Average Rainfall Negatively Impacts Yields
USDA estimates India 2019/20 soybean production at 9.0 million metric tons, down 18 percent from last month and last year. Area is estimated at 11.3 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month but down slightly from last year. Yield is estimated at 0.80 metric tons per hectare, down 20 percent from last month, and down 17 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)

Oct 10 2019 | India Cotton: Record Area Harvested
USDA estimates India cotton production for 2019/20 at 30.5 million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent from last month and up 15 percent from the previous year. The increase is based on improved weather conditions and record planted area in the major cotton regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra. Harvested area is estimated at 12.9 million hectares, up nearly 2 percent from the previous month and up 2 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 515 kilograms per hectare, up 12 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@usda.gov.)

Sep 12 2019 | India Cotton: Forecast Production Up 11 Percent from Last Year
USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2019/20 at 29.5 million 480-pound bales, up nearly 2 percent from last month and up 11 percent from the previous year. The increase is based on improved weather conditions in the major cotton areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra. Harvested area is estimated at 12.7 million hectares, up slightly from last month and last year. Yield is forecast at 506 kilograms per hectare, up 10 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Sep 12 2019 | India Soybeans: Yield Revised Up from Last Month
USDA forecasts India 2019/20 soybean production at 11.0 million metric tons, up nearly 7 percent from last month, but down 4 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 11.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and last year. Yield is forecast to increase to 1.00 metric ton per hectare, up 7 percent from last month, but down nearly 4 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Jul 11 2019 | India Cotton: Yield Up 9 Percent from Last Year
USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2019/20 at 29.0 million 480-pound bales, up 2 percent from last month and 9 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is forecast at 12.6 million hectares, up 2 percent from last month and unchanged from last year. The increase is based upon an assumption of a normal southwest monsoon and increased area in the northern states. Yield is forecast at 501 kilograms per hectare, up 9 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Jun 11 2019 | India Wheat: Wheat Estimated at Record Production
USDA estimates 2019/20 India wheat production at 101.2 million metric tons, up 1 percent from last month and from last year. Area harvested is estimated at 29.8 million hectares, up slightly from last year. This minor revision from last month is based on the India’s Ministry of Agriculture third advance estimates. Yield is estimated at a record 3.39 metric ton per hectare, up about 1 percent from last year. Ideal growing conditions boosted yields and led to record production. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

May 10 2019 | India Wheat: 2019/20 Estimated at Record Production
USDA estimates 2019/20 India wheat production at 100.0 million metric tons, up slightly from the previous year because of ideal growing conditions which boosted yields. Area harvested is estimated at 29.8 million hectares, down slightly from 2018. Yield is estimated to reach record levels or 3.35 metric tons per hectare, up about 1 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov).

Mar 8 2019 | India Corn: Production Forecast Revised Up
USDA forecasts 2018/19 India corn production at 27.8 million metric tons, up nearly 7 percent from last month but down 3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 9.2 million hectares (mha), unchanged from the previous forecast and down slightly from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.02 metric tons per hectare, up nearly 7 percent from last month but down 3 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov).

Mar 8 2019 | India Rice: Production Revised Up
USDA estimates 2018/19 India rice production at 116.0 million metric tons (milled), up 5 percent from the previous estimate and up 3 percent from last year. Area planted is forecast at 44.5 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month and up 2 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 3.91 metric tons per hectare, up about 1 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov)

Mar 8 2019 | India Rapeseed: Ideal Weather Boosts Expected Production
USDA forecasts 2018/19 India rapeseed production at 6.6 million metric tons, up 10 percent from the previous forecast, and up 2 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 6.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and last year. Yield is forecast at 1.10 metric tons per hectare, up 10 percent from last month and up 2 percent from last year. The 2- percent increase in yield is due to ideal growing weather in northern India. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Feb 8 2019 | India Cotton: Weak 2018 Southwest Monsoon Results in Lower Cotton Production
USDA estimates 2018/19 India cotton production at 27.0 million 480-pound bales, down nearly 7 percent from 2017/18. The area is estimated at 12.3 million hectares, down almost 2 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 480 kilograms per hectare, down slightly from December and down 5 percent from last year. The yield adjustment is due to the rainfall deficit and pest infestation in the major cotton producing areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Dec 11 2018 | India Rapeseed: Production Forecast Down due to Drop in Area
USDA forecasts 2018/19 India rapeseed production at 6.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.45 mmt from 2017. Area is forecast at 6.0 million hectares (mha), down 0.5 mha from last month and unchanged from last year. This nearly 8- percent drop in area is due to drier and warmer conditions at planting. Yield is forecast at 1.0 metric ton per hectare, unchanged from last month and down nearly 7 percent from last year. As of November 11, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that rapeseed planting is 95 percent complete at 5.78 mha. The major rapeseed producers are Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Nov 8 2018 | India Soybeans: Record Yields Boost Production
USDA estimates 2018/19 India soybean production at 11.0 million metric tons, up nearly 32 percent from 2017/18. Area is estimated to reach 11.0 million hectares, up 6 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.0 ton per hectare, up 25 percent from both last year and the 5-year average. The high yield is attributed to favorable weather in the major soybean producing areas. (For more information please contact, Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Oct 11 2018 | India Cotton: Weak 2018 Southwest Monsoon Impacts Production
USDA estimates 2018/19 India cotton production at 28.7 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from 2017. Area is estimated at 12.3 million hectares, up 3 percent from last month and down slightly from last year. The 3-percent increase in area is due mainly to favorable prices during planting. Yield is estimated to drop to 508 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down slightly from last year. The yield adjustment is due to the rainfall deficits in the major cotton producing areas of Gujarat and Maharashtra. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Oct 11 2018 | India Peanuts: Below-Average Monsoon Impacts Peanut Production
USDA estimates 2018/19 India peanut production at 4.7 million metric tons, down 18 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year. The month-to-month decrease of over 1 million tons is due to reduced area and lower yields stemming from drought conditions in the main peanut producing area of Kutch in northwestern Gujarat. Area harvested is estimated at 4.7 million hectares, down 6 percent from last month. Yield is estimated to reach 1.0 metric ton per hectare, down 23 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Jun 12 2018 | India: Wheat Production Boosted by Record Yields
USDA estimates 2018/19 wheat production at 97.0 million metric tons, up 2 percent from last month but down 2 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 30.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and down 3 percent from last year because of less than ideal planting conditions in unirrigated wheat area. Farmers delayed planting and switched to less water intense crops such as chickpeas and other pulses in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan because of the dry and warm conditions during the planting in November. The major wheat areas of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh planted 2 percent and 16 percent less wheat than last year. Year-toyear harvested area was unchanged in Punjab. However, record yields in irrigated wheat areas compensated for lower yields and the lower area. Yield is estimated at 3.23 tons per hectare, up 1 percent from the 2017/18 record. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov).

May 10 2018 | India Cotton: 2018/19 Production Forecast Unchanged Despite a Decrease in Area
USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2018/19 at 28.5 million 480-pound bales (6.21 million metric tons), unchanged from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 11.8 million hectares, down 4 percent from last year. Farmers are less optimistic after a 2017/18 pink bollworm infestation that negatively impacted cotton in central and southern India. Farmers are expected to switch from cotton to soybeans and rice. Yield is estimated at 526 kilograms per hectare, up 4 percent from last year. Meteorologists are forecasting a normal monsoon season for 2018/19. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov).

Apr 10 2018 | India Soybeans: Estimated Production Revised Down
USDA estimates India soybean production for 2017/18 at 9.0 million metric tons, down 18 percent from 2016/17. Yield is estimated at 0.86 tons per hectare down 12 percent from last year. The decrease in yield is due to dry conditions during the vegetation and flowering stages in the main soybean areas. Harvested area is estimated at 10.5 million hectares, down 7 percent from last year as farmers switched to higher-priced crops such as cotton. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov)

Mar 8 2018 | India Corn: Production Up Despite Lower Area
USDA estimates corn production for 2017/18 at 27.2 million metric tons, up nearly 5 percent from last year. The increase is due to the favorable monsoon and the increased use of hybrid seed which has boosted yields in the main corn producing areas. The use of hybrid seed has risen since 2000 to 70 percent of plantings. Harvested area is estimated at 9.6 million hectares, down 3 percent from last year. The decrease is due to lower domestic prices and farmers switching to higher return crops such as rice and pulses. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Feb 8 2018 | India Cotton: Pink Bollworm Impacts Yields
USDA estimates 2017/18 India cotton production at 28.5 million 480-pound bales, down nearly 3 percent from last month but still up 6 percent from 2016/17. Harvested area is estimated at 12.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 13 percent from last year. The year-to-year increase in area was due to farmers’ optimism over a generally favorable monsoon and more favorable returns than oilseeds and pulses. Yield is estimated at 504 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from the 5-year average and down 7 percent from 2016/17, which was a record yield. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Feb 8 2018 | India Soybeans: Dry Conditions Negatively Impact Yields
USDA estimates India soybean production for 2017/18 at 9.5 million metric tons (mmt), down 5 percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 10.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down nearly 8 percent from last year. The year-to-year decrease is due to farmers switching to cotton and pulses. Yield is estimated at 0.90 tons per hectare, down about 5 percent from last month but 4 percent above the 5-year average. Dry conditions during planting negatively impacted vegetative growth and pod development. During field travel in mid- September, USDA/FAS personnel observed smaller-than-average seed size in Maharashtra, a major soybean area. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Jan 12 2018 | India Cotton: Production Forecast to Decrease Slightly due to Pest Infestation in Cen
USDA estimates 2017/18 cotton yield to decrease to 519 kilogram per hectare, down slightly from last month and down 4 percent from last year due to pink bollworm infestation, which has been reported in 50 percent of the second and third picking in Maharashtra. Gujarat, however, which produces 30 percent of total production, has reported no incidence of pest infestation. Area is expected to reach a near record at 12.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 13 percent from last year. Planted area increased due to higher domestic prices compared to other crops. Cotton production is forecast at 29.3 million bales (480- pound bales), down less than 1 percent from last month but up 9 percent from 2016/17. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Jan 12 2018 | Pakistan Wheat: Record Production and Yield
USDA estimates Pakistan’s 2017/18 wheat production at a record 26.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.8 mmt from last month and up 0.9 mmt or 4 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.05 million hectares (mha), unchanged from last month but down 0.15 mha or 2 percent from last year. These figures are in accordance with the Government of Pakistan’s latest estimate. This month’s revision is primarily based on recent observations and reporting by USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service Office of Agricultural Affairs (FASOAA) in Islamabad, Pakistan. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)

Dec 12 2017 | Pakistan Cotton: Estimated Output Decreased Based on Arrival Data
USDA estimates Pakistan’s 2017/18 cotton production at 8.2 million 480-pound bales, down 0.95 million bales from last month, but up 0.5 million bales from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.4 million hectares from last year. The yield is estimated at 638 kilograms per hectare down 10 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Jame.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.)

Dec 12 2017 | India Cotton: Estimated Production Decreases Despite an Increase in Harvested Area
USDA estimates India cotton harvested area for 2017/18 at a near record level of 12.3 million hectares, up slightly from last month and up 13 percent from last year. This area increase is due to higher domestic prices compared to other crops. Despite near record area, production is forecast to decrease to 29.5 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from last month’s forecast and up 9 percent from 2016/17. Yield is forecast at 522 kilograms per hectare, down about 2 percent from last month and down 4 percent from the previous year. The 2 percent decrease is due to less than ideal growing conditions which impacted the crop. Untimely rains affected crop yields in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Pink bollworm and sucking pests have been reported in Maharashtra and Telangana. In Gujarat, however, which produces 30 percent of total production, no pests have been reported. (For more information please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Dec 12 2017 | India Rapeseed: Harvested Area Forecast to Decrease By 10 percent
USDA forecasts India rapeseed harvested area for 2017/18 at 6.5 million hectares, down 10 percent from the last month and down 8 percent from last year. Despite favorable domestic prices and higher import duties on eligible oil, planting progress declined by 20 percent from the same period the previous year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, planting progress in Rajasthan on November 30 lagged by 25 percent from the same period last year. Additionally, industry sources reported higher than average temperatures in northern India, which also discouraged planting. Yield is forecast at 1.0 metric ton per hectare, down 8 percent from last year and unchanged from last month. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Nov 9 2017 | India Rice: Estimated Rice Production Slightly Down
USDA estimates India rice production for 2017/18 at 107.5 million metric tons (milled), down about 2 percent from last year’s record crop. The decrease was mainly due to a drop in harvested area. Harvested area is estimated at 42.7 million hectares, down 4 percent from last month but up 1 percent from last year. Rough yield is estimated at 3.78 kilograms per hectare, down 1 percent from the previous year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Nov 9 2017 | India Peanuts: Production Revised Up
USDA estimates 2017/18 India peanuts production at 6.5 million metric tons, up 18 percent from last month but down 3 percent from last year’s bumper crop. This revision is due to reports of a large crop in Gujarat, which accounts for 47 percent of total kharif production. The Gujarat harvest may offset declines in the other states. A normal monsoon season was reported in Gujarat, but persistent dryness during the planting and vegetative growth stages was reported in the other major peanut states of Andra Pradesh, Madhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra which negatively impacted yields. Yield is estimated at 1.30 metric tons per hectare, up 18 percent from last month and up 3 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 5.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 6 percent from last year due to farmers switching to cotton. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Oct 12 2017 | India Wheat: Production Estimated at a Record Level
USDA estimates wheat production for 2017/18 at a record 98.4 million metric tons, up 13 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record level of 3.22 tons per hectare, up nearly 12 percent from last year. The increase is due to favorable weather, boosting yields in the main wheat producing areas. Harvested area is estimated at 30.6 million hectares, up slightly from last year. The increase in area is attributed to strong domestic prices resulting from tight domestic supplies. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov)

Sep 12 2017 | India Rice: Production Up Slightly from Last Year
USDA forecasts India rice production for 2017/18 at 110.0 million metric tons (milled basis), up 2 percent from last month and nearly unchanged from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 44.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 4 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.71 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last year, as area has expanded into marginal lands. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.)

Sep 12 2017 | India Cotton: Cotton Acreage Up 12 Percent from 2016/17
USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017/18 at 30.0 million 480-pound bales, up 11 percent from last year due to expanded planted area. Harvested area is forecast at 12.2 million hectares, up 12 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 535 kilograms per hectare, down 1 percent from last year. The year-to-year decrease is due to erratic monsoon rainfall, unfavorable temperatures and pest problems. India’s main cotton regions (north, central, and south) have all reported increases in planted area relative to last year. Both the north and south reported a 35-percent increase in planting from 2016. The major cotton areas in central India (Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh) reported planting area up by 8 percent from 2016. The southern cotton areas are still sowing cotton.

Aug 10 2017 | India Soybeans and Peanuts: Estimated Area Revised Downward
USDA forecasts India’s 2017/18 soybean area at 10.5 million hectares (mha), down 13 percent from last month and down nearly 8 percent from last year. Peanut harvested area is estimated at 5.0 mha, down 17 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year. The India Ministry of Agriculture reports peanut sown area down nearly 13 percent and soybean sown area down by nearly 10 percent from last year. The decrease is attributed to farmers switching to more profitable pulses and cotton.

Jul 12 2017 | India Cotton: Acreage Up 14 percent from Last Year
USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017/18 at 29 million 480-pound bales, up 7 percent from the previous year. The increase is due to expanded planted area. Harvested area is forecast at 12 million hectares, up 14 percent from the previous year. Yield is forecast at 526 kilograms per hectare, down nearly 6 percent from last year.

Jul 12 2017 | India Rice: Forecast Rice Production Up due to Acreage Expansion
USDA forecasts India rice production for 2017/18 at 108.0 million metric tons (milled), up about 2 percent from last month and unchanged from the previous year. Harvested area is forecasted at 44.5 million hectares, up 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.64 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from the previous year. The decrease is based on area expansion on marginal lands which will likely have a negative impact on the overall yields.

Jun 9 2017 | Pakistan Cotton: Production Estimate Increases
USDA estimates Pakistan's 2017/18 cotton production at 9.3 million 480-pound bales, up 0.8 million bales or 9 percent from last month and up 1.6 million bales or 21 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.85 million hectares, up 0.25 million hectares or 10 percent from last month, and up 0.45 million hectares or 19 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 710 kilograms per hectare, essentially unchanged from last month, but up 2 percent from last year. Cotton is typically sown from April to mid-June. Sowing progress is principally influenced by the pace of the preceding wheat harvest progress and irrigation water availability. The Government of Pakistan's Central Cotton Committee (PCCC) has established an area target of 3.11 million hectares for the 2017/18 season. As of June 2 the PCCC estimated that 2.6 million hectares had been sown. At the current planting pace, USDA estimates that sowing will only reach 92 percent of the target for the season. This will result in a final area of 2.85 million hectares. A trend yield of 710 kilograms per hectare results in a production forecast of 9.3 million bales. The monsoon season accounts for about 70 percent of the total annual precipitation. The extent and distribution of monsoon rainfall during July through September is critical for the production of kharif season crops, including cotton. Approximately 75 percent of Pakistan’s total cotton crop is produced in Punjab; Sindh produces 25 percent. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov).

Jun 9 2017 | India Wheat: Production Lowered
USDA estimates 2017/18 wheat production at 96.0 million metric tons, down 1 percent from last month but up 10 percent from last year. The decrease is based on a reduction in area and official harvest reports. Harvested area is estimated at a near record 30.7 million hectares, down nearly 3 percent from last month, but up 2 percent from last year due to strong domestic prices and tight domestic supplies. Both Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which account for about 50 percent of India’s total wheat production, expanded planted area by 6 and 14 percent, respectively, from last year. Yield is estimated at a near-record 3.12 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 8 percent from last year. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov).

May 10 2017 | India Cotton: 2017/18 Area Rebounds to a Record Level
USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017/18 at 28.0 million 480-pound bales, up nearly 6 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 11.5 million hectares, up 10 percent from last year. Following a two-year decline in production, farmers are expected to expand area because of higher domestic cotton prices compared to other crops such as rice and pulses. Farmers are also optimistic about government programs to control disease and pest infestation. These programs were effective in controlling white fly infestation last season in northern India and pink boll worm infestation in Gujarat. In addition, Indian meteorologists are forecasting a favorable 2017 monsoon season, which is encouraging expansion.

May 10 2017 | India Wheat: 2017/18 Production Estimated at a Record Level
USDA estimates wheat production for 2017/18 at 97.0 million metric tons, up 11 percent from last year. The increase is due to favorable weather, boosting yields in the main wheat producing areas. Harvested area is estimated at 31.8 million hectares, up 5 percent from last year. The increase in area is attributed to strong domestic prices resulting from tight domestic supplies. Both Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which account for approximately 50 percent of India’s total wheat production, expanded planted area by 6 and 14 percent, respectively, from last year.

Feb 9 2017 | Pakistan Cotton: Production Estimate Decreased Three Percent
USDA estimates Pakistan's 2016/17 cotton production at 7.7 million 480- pound bales, down 0.2 million bales or 3 percent from last month but up 0.7 million bales or 10 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.4 million hectares or 14 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 699 kilograms per hectare, down 3 percent from last month, but up 28 percent from last year’s pestravaged crop. Harvest of the main crop (planted in June) began in September, with peak harvest in October. Harvest is complete, but seed-cotton arrivals will continue to trickle in at a slow pace over the next couple weeks. According to the January 15, 2017 Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA) report, seedcotton arrivals to date are up 11 percent over last season. At the provincial level, reported arrivals are up 17 percent in Punjab, which accounts for approximately 80 percent of Pakistan’s total cotton crop. Cumulative market arrivals for the month of December are lower than the same period last year and confirm the trend of diminishing supplies. In recent years farmers have faced increased prices of agricultural chemicals and relatively lower cotton prices. (For more information, please contact James.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov).

Jan 12 2017 | Pakistan Cotton: Production Estimate Decreased Based on Arrival Data
USDA forecasts Pakistan's 2016/17 cotton production at 7.9 million 480-pound bales, down 0.35 million bales or 4 percent from last month but up 0.9 million bales or 13 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.4 million hectares or 14 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 717 kilograms per hectare, down 4 percent from last month, but up 32 percent from last year’s pest-ravaged crop.

Dec 9 2016 | India Cotton: Yields Estimated to be Above Average
USDA estimates 2016/17 India cotton production at 27.0 million bales, unchanged from last month and up 2 percent from last year. Area harvested is estimated at 10.5 million hectares, down 2 percent from last month and down nearly 12 percent from 2015/16 due to a decline in area planted in northern India, which comprises about 10 percent of total cotton production. Yield is estimated at 560 kilograms per hectare, up 6 percent from the 5-year average. The increase in yield is chiefly due to a normal monsoon and improved pest and disease management. Last season, white fly and disease negatively impacted yields in northern India. Minimal damage from white fly has been reported this year because of better plant protection measures.

Dec 9 2016 | India Soybean: Yields Above Average
USDA estimates India soybean production for 2016/17 at 11.5 million metric tons, up 19 percent from last month’s estimate, up 61 percent from last year. The increase is based on better than expected harvest. Harvested area is estimated at 11.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month, down 2 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 1.01 tons per hectare up 15 percent from last month and 2 percent above the 5-year average.

Nov 9 2016 | India Cotton: Above-Average Yields Reported
USDA forecasts 2016/17 India cotton production at 27.0 million 480-pound bales, up nearly 2 percent from last month and last year. Harvested area is estimated at 10.7 million hectares, down slightly from last month and down 10 percent from 2015/16 due to a decline in planted area in northern India, which accounts for 10 percent of India’s cotton production.

Sep 12 2016 | India Cotton: Area Revised Slightly Downward
USDA forecasts 2016/17 India cotton production at 26.5 million 480-pound bales, down 0.5 million bales from last month but up slightly from 2015/16. Harvested area decreased marginally to 10.9 million hectares, and down 8.4 percent from last year. Reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate the pace of cotton is slowing as the planting window comes to an end. The year-to-year decrease is due to grower’s concerns about the erratic monsoon rainfall and farmers switching to more profitable crops such as peanuts and pulses. Yield is forecast at 529 kilograms per hectare, on par with the 5-year average. While overall the monsoon has been generally favorable across the country, rainfall in major cotton areas has been below normal.

Sep 12 2016 | India Peanuts: Production Expected to Increase due to Higher Area
USDA forecasts 2016/17 India peanut production at 5.5 million metric tons, up 10 percent from last month and up 23 percent from 2015/16 because of an increase in estimated area. Area is estimated at 5.3 million hectares, up 10 percent from last month and up 16 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.04 tons per hectare.

Sep 12 2016 | India Soybeans: Production Forecast Revised Downward 15 percent
USDA forecasts India soybean production for 2016/17 at 9.7 million tons, down 15 percent from last month but up 38 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 0.85 tons per hectare, down 12 percent from last month and down 5.6 percent from the 5-year average. The decrease in forecast yield is due to excessive rainfall in the main soybean areas. Harvested area is forecast at 11.4 million hectares, down 2.5 percent from last month because wet of planting weather.

Aug 12 2016 | India Cotton: Production Forecast to Increase Despite a Lower Area
USDA forecasts 2016/17 India cotton production at 27.0 million 480-pound bales, down 0.5 million bales from last month but up 2.3 percent from 2015/16. Area harvested is estimated to decrease to 11.0 million hectares, down 7.5 percent from 2015/16, because farmers switched to more profitable crops such as pulses. Additionally, grower concerns about the erratic monsoon contributed to the lower area. Yield is forecast at 534 kilograms per hectare, up 2.9 percent from the 5-year average.

Jul 12 2016 | India Cotton: Production Forecast Decreases Due to Lower Area
USDA forecasts 2016/17 India cotton production at 27.5 million bales (480-pound bales) down 0.7 million bales from 2015/16. Area harvested is estimated to decrease to 11.5 million hectares, down 3.4 percent from 2015/16 due to a decline in area planted in northern India which comprises about 10 percent of total cotton production. The forecast yield this month is 521 kilograms per hectare.

Jul 12 2016 | Pakistan Cotton: Estimated Production Down 11 Percent
USDA reduces Pakistan's 2016/17 cotton production forecast to 8.0 million bales (480-pound bales), down 1.0 million bales or 11 percent from last month, but still up 1.0 million bales or 14 percent from last year. Area harvested is estimated at 2.5 million hectares (mha), down 0.2 mha or 7.4 percent from last month, and down 0.3 mha or 11 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 694 kilograms per hectare, down 4.4 percent from last month, but up 28 percent from last year. Growers have sown more corn and sugarcane this season and reduced cotton acreage. Corn and sugarcane producers benefit from tariffs that insulate domestic market prices from the international market, while cotton producers face lower prices and competition from cotton imports. Yield is forecast to rebound this season as farmers exercise greater caution not to repeat last season’s attempts to lower input costs in response to low market prices. In 2015/16 growers reduced pesticide applications which resulted in a 30 percent decrease in yield due to severe whitefly infestations. Yields in 2015/16 were 544 kilograms per hectare, the lowest in the past 17 years.

Jun 11 2016 | Pakistan Wheat: Harvest Complete
The harvest of Pakistan’s 2016/17 wheat crop was completed in May 2016. USDA estimates production at 25.3 million tons, unchanged from last month and up 0.2 million or 0.8 percent from last year. Area is estimated at a record 9.23 million hectares, up marginally from last year’s 9.20 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 2.74 metric tons per hectare and is similar to last year’s yield. Growing conditions were favorable in Punjab, where the wheat crop benefitted from timely precipitation during the warmer than normal season. A large portion of Punjab’s wheat received abundant rainfall in mid-March, coinciding with the flowering stage. Overall, the weather conditions during the Rabi (winter crop) period supported near average yields.

May 10 2016 | India Soybeans: 2016/17 Production Expected to Rebound from Last Year
USDA forecasts India soybean production for 2016/17 at 11.70 million tons, up 58 percent from last year. The increase is based on the assumption of normal yields. Yield is forecast at 0.97 tons per hectare, up nearly 50 percent from last year and up 5.0 percent from the 5-year average. Harvested area is forecast at 12.0 million hectares, up 5.3 percent from last year.

Apr 12 2016 | India Soybeans: Yield Forecast to Drop to Historic Low
India’s soybean production is estimated at 7.5 million metric tons, down 6.3 percent from the last month and down nearly 14 percent from last year due to abnormal growing conditions. Harvested area is estimated at 11.4 million hectares, down 2.1 percent from last month but up 4.5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 0.66 tons per hectare, down 4.5 percent from last month and down 17.5 percent from last year.

Mar 9 2016 | India Cotton: Estimated Production Decreased on Low Market Arrivals
USDA estimates India’s 2015/16 cotton production at 26.8 million bales (480-pound bales), down 3.6 percent or 1 million bales from last month and down 9.2 percent from last year. The downward revision is based on reports of low market arrivals. Harvested area is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, same as last month, and down 7.1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a 5-year low of 494 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down 3.7 percent from last month and down 2.4 percent from last year. In the past five years India’s cotton area and yields have averaged 11.95 million hectares and 530 kg/ha, respectively.

Feb 9 2016 | India Cotton: Estimated Production Down Slightly
USDA estimates India’s 2015/16 cotton production at 27.8 million bales (480-pound bales), down slightly from last month and down 5.8 percent from last year. Area harvested is estimated at 11.8 million hectares, same as last month, and down 7.1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 513 kilograms per hectare, down slightly from last month, but still up 1.4 percent from last year.

Jan 12 2016 | Pakistan Cotton: Estimated Output decreased based on Arrival Data
USDA estimates Pakistan’s 2015/16 cotton production at 7.2 million bales (480-pound bales), down 0.8 million bales from last month and down 3.4 million bales from last year. Area harvested is estimated at 2.8 million hectares, same as last month, and down 0.15 million hectares from last year. The yield is estimated at 560 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), down 10 percent from last month, down 28 percent from last year, and down 22 percent from the 5-year average.

Dec 9 2015 | India Soybean: Low Record Yields Significantly Reduce Production
USDA estimates 2015/16 India soybean production at 8 million metric tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month, and down 0.7 million tons from last year. The decrease is attributed to continued reports of deteriorating yield prospects. Harvested area is estimated at 11.65 million hectares, same as last month, up 6.8 percent from last year, and the second largest on record. Yield is estimated at 0.69 tons per hectare, down 16.3 percent from last month, down 14 percent from last year, and is the lowest in 10 years.

Dec 9 2015 | Pakistan Cotton: Early Market Arrivals Indicate Significantly Lower Yields
USDA forecasts Pakistan's 2015/16 cotton production at 8.0 million 480-pound bales, down 1.0 million bales from last month and down 2.6 million bales from last year.

Dec 9 2015 | India Rice: Early Harvest Returns Indicate Reduced Productivity
India's 2015/16 rice production is forecast at 100 million metric tons, down 3.5 million tons from last month and down 4.8 million tons from last year. Area is forecast at 43 million hectares, the same as last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.49 tons per hectare, down 4.6 percent from last year

Dec 9 2015 | India Rapeseed: Lowest Planted Area in Five Years Projected
India's 2015/16 rapeseed production is forecast at 6 million metric tons, down 1.15 million tons from last month and down 0.3 million tons from last year. Area harvested is forecast at 6.0 million hectares, down 1.0 million hectares from last month, and down 0.6 million hectares from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.0 ton per hectare, up 4.6 percent from last year.

Nov 10 2015 | India Soybean: Low Yields Reduce Production
USDA estimates 2015/16 India soybean production at 9.5 million metric tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month, but up 0.5 million tons from last year. The major factor shaping the current estimate is continued reports of lower-than-expected yields.

Oct 9 2015 | India Soybeans: Estimated Production Reduced Due to Decline in Yields
USDA/FAS estimates 2015/16 India soybean production at 11 million metric tons, down 4.3 percent from last month, but up 22 percent from last year. The major factors shaping the current estimate are the increase in harvested area and overall decline in yields. Area is estimated at 11.65 million hectares, up 1.3 percent from last month and up 6.8 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 0.94 tons per hectare (MT/Ha), down 5.6 percent from last month but up approximately 14 percent from last year. In the past five years India’s soybean area and yields have averaged 10.7 million hectares and 0.99 MT/Ha, respectively.

Oct 9 2015 | India Corn: Lower-than-Expected Yields Reduce Estimated Production
India's 2015/16 corn production is forecast at 23.0 million metric tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month and down 0.67 million tons from last year. Area is forecast at 9.2 million hectares, down 1.1 percent from last year.

May 12 2015 | India Cotton: Lower Area Forecast for 2015/16
USDA forecasts 2015/16 India cotton production at 29.5 million bales (480-pound bales), down 0.5 million from last year. Area is forecast at 12.0 million hectares, down 5.5 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 535 kilograms per hectare, up 4.1 percent from last year. In the past 5 years India’s cotton area and yield have averaged approximately 11.95 million hectares and 533 kilograms per hectare, respectively. The year-to-year decrease in estimated area is based on unfavorable prices for the 2014/15 crop, which fell below government established minimum support prices. The major cotton growing states are Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. Cotton is grown during the kharif (monsoon) season, from June through September. In some northern regions (including Punjab and Haryana), the planting of irrigated cotton begins in April or May. The current outlook is based on the assumption of normal weather during the upcoming growing season. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov.)

May 12 2015 | India Wheat: Declining Prospects for 2015/16 Production
The harvest of India’s 2015/16 wheat crop is in progress and will continue through May. USDA estimates production at 90.0 million tons, down 5.85 million tons or 6.1 percent from last year’s record. Output is projected to be the lowest in the past 3 years. Area is forecast at 30.6 million hectares, down 3.0 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.94 tons per hectare, down 3.3 percent from last year. The month-to-month reduction is based on reports of excessively wet conditions and hailstorms that resulted in delayed harvest and poor harvesting conditions (including lodging). The major wheat areas in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh experienced favorable weather during most of the growing season. Planting was completed earlier than usual and conditions remained favorable for the major part of the growing period. Satellite-derived vegetation indices indicated higher-than-previously expected yields in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and northern parts of Madhya Pradesh. Excessive rainfall in February and March, however, resulted in excessively wet field conditions during the grain-fill stage and harvest. April harvest reports indicated a significant reduction in potential yield in north-west Uttar Pradesh and south-east Haryana. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov.) Thailand Rice:

Apr 9 2015 | Pakistan Wheat: Production Estimate Increased
USDA estimates the 2014/15 wheat production at a record 25.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month, and up 1.5 million tons from last year. Area is estimated at a record 9.1 million hectares, up 5.3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.8 tons per hectare, 0.8 percent more than last year. Harvest was completed in May 2014, and the crop has been delivered to markets and bulk handlers. This month’s revision is primarily based on recent observations and reporting by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Office of Agricultural Affairs (FAS-OAA) in Islamabad, Pakistan. According to FAS-OAA the increase in estimated production is due to timely planting, greater availability and use of irrigation water, improved quantity and quality of inputs, an increase in the Government-established wheat support price and favorable weather. The current estimates are consistent with USDA’s 2014/15 seasonal monitoring of crop and weather conditions that indicated good-to-excellent conditions across the major growing provinces, Punjab and Sindh. Overall the seasonal conditions were characterized by favorable soil moisture during the optimal planting period (October-December), good-to-excellent conditions during grain formation and maturity in January-March, and almost ideal (cool) temperatures during grain maturity stages. February-March satellite data observations indicated average-to-above-average NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) in Punjab and Sindh provinces, suggesting higher-than-expected yields. The crop outlook prior to March-April indicated that chances of an above-median wheat yield were above average across the region. Wheat is one of the main agricultural crops in Pakistan, with 80 percent of farmers growing it on an area of around nine million hectares (close to 40 percent of the country’s total cultivated land) during the winter or rabi season. This crop contributed about 10 percent of the country’s agricultural product and 2.2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov).

Mar 10 2015 | India Rice: End of Season Favorable Conditions Increase Prospects
India's 2014/15 rice production is forecast at 102.5 million tons, up 0.5 million metric tons or 0.5 percent from last month but down 3.8 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 43.0 million hectares, down 2.1 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.58 tons per hectare, down 1.8 percent from last year. The kharif rice harvest is almost complete. The final estimates of kharif rice output are converging to around 89.5 million tons. Approximately 85 percent of India’s rice is grown during kharif season (southwest monsoon season, May-September) mainly in Punjab, Haryana, and Utter Pradesh. About 50 percent of kharif rice is irrigated using canals and tube wells. The rest of the rice crop is grown under irrigation during the rabi season (winter season, November-March). With the rabi rice planting nearing completion, the prevailing average seasonal weather and soil moisture conditions indicate average rice yields across most of the major rabi rice cropping regions, with output up to 13 million tons. The rabi crop is predominantly grown in the south-eastern states of West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. (For more information, please contact Dath.Mita@fas.usda.gov).

Jan 12 2015 | India Corn: Increase in Rabi Season Corn Area Raises Production Forecast
India's 2014/15 corn production is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month but down 2.2 million from last year. Area is forecast at 9.0 million hectares, up 0.4 million hectares from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.44 ton per hectare, unchanged from last month, down 4.1 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from the 5-year average.

Jan 12 2015 | India Soybeans: Yields Forecasted Below 5-Year Average
USDA forecasts 2014/15 India soybean production at 10.5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month but up 1.0 million from last year. Area is forecast at 11.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 1.2 million hectares from last year’s record. Yield is forecast at 0.95 tons per hectare, up 23 percent from last year, but 6.8 percent below the 5-year average.

Oct 10 2014 | India Rice: Prospects for Production Continue to Decline
India's 2014/15 rice production is forecast at 102 million tons, down 1 million metric tons or 1.0 percent from last month and down 4.3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 43.5 million hectares, down 1.0 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.52 tons per hectare, down 3.4 percent from last year.

Jun 11 2013 | India Wheat: Harvest Reports Indicate Record Crop
USDA estimates the 2014/15 wheat production at a record 95.85 million tons, up 1.85 million or 2.0 percent from last month, and 2.34 million or 2.5 percent above last year. Area is estimated at 30.6 million hectares, up 2.0 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.13 tons per hectare, up slightly from last year. This month’s revision is primarily based on the latest Government of India’s estimates of production report. Harvesting is almost complete.

Jun 11 2013 | India Millet: Higher Production Estimate for 2013/14 and 2014/15
India's 2013/14 millet production has been revised to 11.52 million tons, up 8.7 percent from last month’s estimate, based primarily on the latest Government of India estimates of production report. Harvested area is estimated at 9.2 million hectares and yield is estimated at a ten-year record of 1.25 ton per hectare. USDA’s projection of 2014/15 India millet has increased to 12 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Harvested area is projected at 9.5 million hectares. Yield is forecast at a record 1.26 tons per hectare. There has been a strong trend of yield increases for India millet. Sowing starts in June and is completed by August.

Jun 11 2013 | India Cotton: Improved Prospects for 2013/14
USDA has raised the estimate for the 2013/14 India cotton production to a record 30.5 million bales (480-pound bales), up 1 million bales from last month. The increase reflects the latest Government of India’s estimates of production and the latest ginning data. According to USDA’s Office of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, cotton arrival data continue to support a crop estimate larger than previously estimated, especially in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Harvested area is estimated at 11.7 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 568 kilograms per hectare, close to a ten-year record of 570 achieved in 2007/08. Cotton harvesting operations are almost complete and marketing is in progress.

Aug 12 2013 | India: Excessive Monsoon Rainfall Raises Concerns for 2013/14 Soybean Yield
India's 2013/14 soybean production is forecast at a record 12.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 2.5 percent from last month and up approximately 7 percent from last year. The area is forecast at a record 11.9 million hectares, up 8 percent from last month, and up 10 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.03 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month, and down 2.5 percent from last year.

Sep 12 2013 | India Peanuts: Favorable Prospects for the 2013/14 Crop
The USDA forecast India's 2013/14 peanut production at 5.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 10 percent from last month and up 10 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 5.4 million hectares, up 0.4 million hectares or 8 percent from both last month and last year. The yield is forecast at 1.02 tons per hectare, up 1.8 percent from both last month and last year.

Nov 8 2013 | India Rice: Declining Prospects for Kharif (summer) Crop Production
India's 2013/14 rice production is forecast at 105 million tons, down 3.0 million metric tons or 2.8 percent from USDA’s September forecast, but up 0.6 percent from last year’s output. Area is forecast at 43.5 million hectares, 2.2 percent down from the September estimate, but up 2.6 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.62 tons per hectare, down 1.9 percent from last year.

Nov 8 2013 | India Soybeans: Estimated Production Decreased Following Excessive Rain
The USDA forecast of India's 2013/14 soybean production is 11.8 million tons, down 0.5 million or 4.1 percent from the September forecast and up 2.6 percent from last year. The area is forecast at a record 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from September and up 13 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 0.97 tons per hectare, down 4.1 percent from the September estimate, and down 9.2 percent from last year, and below the long term average. India’s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season) under rainfed conditions.

Sep 11 2014 | India Cotton: Higher Prospects for 2014/15
USDA forecasts the 2014/15 India cotton production at 30.0 million bales (480-pound bales), up 3.4 percent or 1.0 million bales from last month. The revision is primarily based on field observations, continued favorable improvement in rainfall, and sowing progress across the main growing regions. Estimated area is forecast at a record 12.5 million hectares, up 2.5 percent from last month. Yield is forecast at 523 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), up 1.0 percent from last month. For the past five years India’s cotton area and yields have averaged approximately 11.5 million hectares and 530 kg/ha, respectively. FAS analysts traveled to India in early September. Field observations and discussions with farmers revealed that area planted is close to a record and overall crop conditions are favorable.

Dec 10 2013 | India Rice: Production Prospects Continue to Decline
India's 2013/14 rice production is forecast at 103 million tons, down 2 million metric tons or 1.9 percent from USDA’s November 2013 forecast and down 1.3 percent from 2012/13 output. The area is forecast at 43.5 million hectares, up 2.6 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.55 tons per hectare, down 3.8 percent from last year.

Aug 12 2014 | India Soybeans: Area Declines from Dry Weather during Planting Season
USDA forecasts 2014/15 India soybean production at 11 million tons, down 5 percent from last month and unchanged from last year. Area is forecast at a record 11 million hectares, down almost 5 percent from last month, and down 9.8 percent from last year’s record level. Yield is forecast at 1.0 tons per hectare, up 11 percent from last year. In the past five years, India’s soybean area and yields have averaged 10.43 million hectares and 1.02 tons per hectare, respectively. India’s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon) season under rainfed conditions. Most of the soybean crop is grown in northwest and central India where the main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). The season started as one of the driest resulting in significant planting delays. Optimum planting is the third week of June to the second week of July, but the window of opportunity for planting extends until early August.

Aug 12 2014 | India Rice: Production Prospects Continue to Decline from Reduced Area
India 2014/15 rice production is forecast at 103.0 million tons, down 1.0 percent from last month and down 4.94 million or 3.1 percent from last year’s record. Area is forecast at 43.4 million hectares which is 0.54 million less than last year. Yield is forecast at 3.56 tons per hectare, down 1.9 percent from last year. Rice transplanting is in progress although there were delays in some regions due to the late start, erratic beginning, and poor distribution of the monsoon rainfall. The recent boost in rainfall over eastern India (Bihar, Utter Pradesh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal) promoted a better environment for transplanting and early crop development. Overall the majority of key rice growing areas in the eastern states have experienced below normal to approximately normal rainfall. Above-average rainfall is needed during the next few weeks to promote further transplanting and improve the current crop yield expectations. The southwest monsoon accounts for 70 percent of annual rainfall in India. This year’s monsoon was delayed by more than two weeks. India’s rice is produced throughout the calendar year starting with kharif rice that accounts for 85 percent of total rice production and is grown in March – February, followed by rabi rice accounting for 15 percent and grown in November-June. Almost 50 percent of kharif rice is irrigated and mainly produced in the northwest (Punjab, Haryana, Utter Pradesh), northeast and in the Southern Peninsula. Rabi rice is 100 percent irrigated and is produced mainly in the east and northeast states (West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Assam, and Tamil Nadu). The majority of irrigation is by the use of canals, tube wells and diesel pumps.

Aug 12 2014 | India Corn: Area Declines from Dry Weather during Planting Season
India's 2014/15 corn production is forecast at 21 million tons, down 4.1 percent from last month and down 3.19 million or 13 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 8.6 million hectares, down 4.4 percent from last month and down 9.5 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.44 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, down 4.3 percent from last year, and 1.2 percent higher than the five-year-average. Roughly 80 percent of India’s corn is produced during the kharif or monsoon season (June-October) and the rest is grown during the rabi season (September-April). According to the Government of India’s Meteorological Department, the advance of the 2014 southwest monsoon into the major cotton growing areas of north central and northwestern India improved during the month of July from 35 percent to approximately 25 percent below normal. This year’s monsoon was delayed by more than two weeks. At the end of July, regional monsoon rainfall deficits are reported at 49 percent of normal in northwest India, 47 percent in central India, 26 percent in the Southern Peninsula, and 22 percent in northeast India. Generally, the Indian monsoon is characterized as normal at 95 to 105 percent of the long-term-average (LTA), below normal at 90 to 95 percent, and drought at less than 90 percent. Across the majority of corn growing states (Rajasthan, Karnataka, Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Gujarat), the season started as one of the driest resulting in significant planting delays due to the late start and poor distribution of the rainfall. Estimated area is substantially decreased this month as the window of planting opportunity closes.

Apr 9 2014 | India Millet: Production Less Than Previously Projected
India's 2013/14 millet production is estimated at 10.6 million tons, down 7.8 percent from last month and down 1.5 percent from last year. The production has been revised down primarily due to decline in area harvested. The harvested area is estimated at 9.2 million hectares, down 8.0 percent from last month and down 1.1 percent from last year. The final yield estimate is slightly above the 5-year average at 1.15 tons per hectare. India’s millet (including bajra, ragi, and small millets) is grown during the kharif (monsoon) season (June-September). In recent years millet production has been facing competition from other summer crops such as cotton, soybeans, and pulses, which that has led to a decline in area. The 2013 monsoon rainfall was characterized as normal and most major millet growing regionsreceived favorable rainfall. During the months of June-July, cumulative rainfall in these states was very favorable compared to last year, promoting good crop growth and development. Millet is mainly produced in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Utter Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Haryana.

Jul 11 2014 | India Cotton: Poor Monsoon Rainfall Distribution Lowers Prospects for 2014/15
USDA has revised the forecast for the 2014/15 India cotton production to 28 million bales (480-pound bales), down 0.5 million bales from last month. The revision is primarily based on reports of significant delays in planting due to the late start and generally poor distribution of the 2014 monsoon rainfall across the country. Cotton sown area is forecast at 11.8 million hectares. Yield 4 July 2014 is forecast at 517 kilograms per hectare (kg/Ha), down 1.7 percent from last month. In the past five years India’s cotton area and yields have averaged 11.5 million hectares and 530 kg/Ha. According to the Government of India’s Meteorological Department, the advance of the 2014 southwest monsoon into the major cotton growing areas of north central and northwestern India is now delayed by more than two weeks. Overall, at the end of June, the monsoon rainfall was 93 percent of normal across India. Regional estimates indicate that the monsoon is at 85 percent of normal in northwest India, 94 percent in central India, 93 percent in Southern Peninsula, and 99 percent in north east India. Generally, the Indian monsoon is classified as normal at 95 to 105 percent of the long-term-average (LTA). Below normal is defined at 90-95 percent of LTA and brought as less than 90 percent of LTA. The late start, somewhat erratic beginning and poor distribution of the monsoon rainfall is generally resulting in delayed planting of almost all kharif (monsoon) season crops including cotton. However, it is still too early to make objective and reliable seasonal planting predictions because the window of opportunity for cotton planting extends through July. The mid-July planting progress data and observations will be critical in estimating the 2014 cotton area planted.

Jun 17 2014 | India Wheat: Harvest Reports Indicate Record Crop
USDA estimates the 2014/15 wheat production at a record 95.85 million tons, up 1.85 million or 2.0 percent from last month, and 2.34 million or 2.5 percent above last year. Area is estimated at 30.6 million hectares, up 2.0 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.13 tons per hectare, up slightly from last year. This month’s revision is primarily based on the latest Government of India’s estimates of production report. Harvesting is almost complete. Conditions were good-to-excellent across the growing states. Overall, India benefited by favorable soil moisture conditions during the optimal planting period (October – December), good-to-excellent conditions during grain formation in January to March, and cool temperatures during maturation. Some areas, however, received excessive rain and hailstorm, causing delays in harvesting.

Jun 17 2014 | India Millet: Higher Production Estimate for 2013/14 and 2014/15
India's 2013/14 millet production has been revised to 11.52 million tons, up 8.7 percent from last month’s estimate, based primarily on the latest Government of India estimates of production report. Harvested area is estimated at 9.2 million hectares and yield is estimated at a ten-year record of 1.25 ton per hectare. USDA’s projection of 2014/15 India millet has increased to 12 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Harvested area is projected at 9.5 million hectares. Yield is forecast at a record 1.26 tons per hectare. There has been a strong trend of yield increases for India millet. Sowing starts in June and is completed by August. India’s millet (including bajra, ragi, and small millets) is grown during the kharif (monsoon) season (June-September). In recent years millet production has been facing competition from other summer crops such as cotton, soybean, and pulses, leading to a decline in millet area. The 2013 monsoon rainfall was characterized as normal and most major millet growing regions received favorable rainfall. The favorable rainfall resulted in above-average yields. Millet is mainly produced in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Utter Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Haryana. During the months of June and July in 2013, cumulative rainfall in these states was very favorable compared to the previous season.

Jun 17 2014 | India Cotton: Improved Prospects for 2013/14
USDA has raised the estimate for the 2013/14 India cotton production to a record 30.5 million bales (480-pound bales), up 1 million bales from last month. The increase reflects the latest Government of India’s estimates of production and the latest ginning data. According to USDA’s Office of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, cotton arrival data continue to support a crop estimate larger than previously estimated, especially in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Harvested area is estimated at 11.7 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 568 kilograms per hectare, close to a ten-year record of 570 achieved in 2007/08. Cotton harvesting operations are almost complete and marketing is in progress. During the 2013/14 season most cotton-growing regions across the country experienced favorable monsoon rainfall that encouraged cotton plantings. Most regions saw significant improvements including North West, Central India, South Peninsula, and the East. Continued beneficial rainfall encouraged growers to continue planting as indicated by the Government of India’s sowing progress reports.

Apr 10 2013 | Pakistan Rice: Output Projected Smaller than Expected
Pakistan’s 2012/13 rice production is estimated at 6 million tons (milled), down 0.8 million or 11.8 percent from last month and down approximately 3 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 2.7 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 1.8 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.33 tons per hectare, down 11.8 percent from last month and down 1.4 percent from last year. Rice harvest operations are completed and current data on harvest returns indicate significantly lower output than previously projected. The substantial production decline is attributed to decline in area planted and below-average yield returns. Annual decline in area planted was primarily due to early season poor rains, poor irrigation water availability and a slow sowing rate due to unseasonably low temperatures. The major rice growing provinces, Punjab and Sindh, reported 0.6 and 9 percent less area planted compared to last year, respectively. In addition to the poor moisture conditions at the start of the growing season, yield prospects were also affected by excessive rainfall and flooding in some parts of the country during August-September. In particular, excessive precipitation triggered overland floods and river flooding in Baluchistan and Sindh provinces. Preliminary satellite-based flood damage assessment and crop outlook indicated low-to-moderate loss of cropland and crop damage. However, more recent analysis of crop maturity indices and harvest output data shows that the rice crop in Baluchistan and Sindh experienced severe yield penalties. Excessive rainfall and flooding at advanced crop stages resulted in overall 5 percent lower yields than the 5-year average. Late season improvements in soil moisture and crop conditions were not enough to offset the poor yield prospects. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202 720 7339)

Mar 8 2013 | India Rice: Kharif Rice Outturn Raises Prospects
India's 2012/13 rice production is forecast at 101.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 2 percent from last month and down 4 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 43.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 2.5 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.52 tons per hectare, down 1.6 percent from last year. Rainfall from the 2012 monsoon arrived late across India and was characterized as erratic and below normal in some regions, especially during June, July and early August. Overall rainfall deficits were 29 percent in June, 39 percent in July and 20 percent in early August. These conditions raised serious concerns about the 2012/13 crop prospects. However, rainfall and soil moisture conditions significantly improved in August and September and were categorized as normal, raising yield prospects. Despite the low early and mid-season rainfall, reported yields for the kharif rice crop are higher than expected and have boosted prospects for India’s 2012/13 rice crop. About 85 percent of India’s rice is grown during the kharif (summer) season, from May through September, mainly in Punjab, Haryana, and Utter Pradesh. It is estimated that 50 percent of kharif rice is irrigated using canals and tube wells. The rest of the rice is grown under irrigation during the rabi (winter) season, from November through March. The rabi crop is predominantly grown in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. The harvest of the kharif crop is almost complete and rabi rice planting is about to finish. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

Sep 12 2012 | India Cotton: Improved Prospects for Crop
USDA has increased forecasts for the 2012/13 India cotton production to 24.5 million bales (480-pound bales), up 4.3 percent from last month, but down 3.0 million or 11 percent from last year. The increase is primarily due to higher than previously projected harvested area following improved monsoon rainfall in August and early September that encouraged plantings. Based on recent sowing progress reports USDA forecasts harvested area at 11.5 million hectares, up 0.7 million hectares or 6.5 percent from last month, but down 5.7 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 464 kilograms per hectare, down 2.1 percent from last month and down 5.5 percent from last year.In August and early September the majority of cotton growing areas experienced improvements in monsoon rainfall. Overall monsoon rainfall across India improved to 14 percent below average compared to 22 percent the previous month. Most regions saw significant improvements including North West, Central India, South Peninsula, and the East. Rainfall encouraged growers to continue planting as indicated by the Government of India’s sowing progress reports.Cotton planting is in progress and is expected to continue through September. This season, July through August was a very critical planting period across the country and the monsoon rains remained a major concern. According to the latest provisional planting estimate from the Ministry of Agriculture in India, total cotton planting at the end of August is reported at 11.15 million hectares, down from 11.77 million hectares compared to the same time last year. Planting progress continues to lag in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat which produce 21 and 28 percent of total India cotton respectively.The majority of the early planted crop is at squaring and first blooming stages. Inadequate rainfall, delayed planting and periodic moisture stress are likely to result in the significant year-to-year yield reduction. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

Aug 10 2012 | India Peanuts: Declining Prospects for the Kharif Peanut Crop
The USDA forecasts India's 2012/13 peanut production at 4.95 million tons, down 0.85 million or 14.7 percent from last month and down 10 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 5.0 million hectares, down 0.6 million from last month or 11 percent, and down 0.3 million or 6 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 0.99 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month and from last year.India is experiencing poor southwest monsoon rainfall for this 2012 kharif season. The monsoon rainfall accounts for 70 percent of India's annual rainfall and is crucial for 75 percent of peanut production. Cumulative rainfall for the season since June is 22 percent below normal for the country as a whole. Regional deficits are 39 percent in the North West, 22 percent in the Central region, 24 percent in South Peninsula, and 9 percent in East and North East. The dry soil moisture conditions coupled with hot temperatures in most peanut producing regions in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are raising concerns about the 2012/13 area and yield prospects.An estimated 75 percent of India’s peanut crop is grown during kharif season (monsoon-summer)and 25 percent is produced during the rabi (winter) season. The current kharif sowing progress reports indicate a 22 percent decrease from the corresponding period last year, that is, 2.55 million hectares compared to 3.31 last year. The average area for kharif peanut crop is 3.7 million hectares and the average rabi crop is 1.25. The major production states are Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. (For more information, contact Dr. Dath Mita at 202 720 7339.)

Aug 10 2012 | India Cotton: Poor Monsoon Rainfall Lowers Prospects
The USDA/FAS forecasts the 2012/13 India cotton production at 23.5 million bales (480-pound bales), down 2.1 percent from last month, and down 3.0 million or 11.3 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecasted at 10.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 11 percent from last year. The yield is forecasted at 474 kg/ha, down 2 percent from last month but nearly unchanged from last year.The majority of cotton growing areas have experienced poor 2012 monsoon rainfall. At the end of July country-wide seasonal rainfall is at 22 percent below the long-term-average. Regional deficits are 39 percent in the North West, 22 percent in the Central region, 24 percent in South Peninsula, and 9 percent in East and North East. These rainfall deficits are raising serious concerns about planted area and yield prospects across the country.Cotton planting is in progress and is expected to continue through August. July is typically the most critical planting period across the country and the monsoon rains remained a major concern. According to the latest provisional planting estimate from the Ministry of Agriculture in India, total cotton planting at the end of July is 7 percent less than the corresponding period last year, that is, 9.7 million hectares compared to 10.45 million hectares last year. Planting progress is especially poor in the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat that produce 21 and 28 percent of total India cotton respectively.The majority of the early planted crop is at squaring and first blooming stages. The inadequate rainfall, delayed planting and periodic moisture stress is projected to result in significant yield penalties. (For more information contact Dr. Dath Mita at 202 720 7339.)

Aug 10 2012 | India Rice: Poor Monsoon Rainfall Lowers Prospects
The USDA forecasts India's 2012/13 rice production at 98.0 million tons, down 2 million tons or 2 percent from last month and down 6.3 million or 6.1 percent from last year. The 2012/13 production level is a significant decrease from last year’s record production of 104.32 million tons. This is primarily due to projected significant reduction in planted area and lower yield potential as a result of late, deficient, and poorly distributed monsoon rainfall. Area is forecast at 43.0 million hectares which is 1.4 million below last year. Yield is forecast at 3.42 tons per hectare, down 4 percent from last year.India is experiencing poor southwest monsoon rainfall for this season. Cumulative seasonal rainfall since June is 22 percent below normal for the country as a whole. Regional deficits are 39 percent in the North West, 22 percent in the Central region, 24 percent in South Peninsula, and 9 percent in East and North East. The hot weather and low soil moisture in the major rice producing regions (northwest and northeast India) are raising serious concerns about the 2012/13 crop prospects.Rice sowing progress reports show a 9 percent shortfall compared to the area sown last year for the same period. The largest decline in planted area is mainly from key rice regions in the states of Bihar, Utter Pradesh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. Transplanting operations are continuing in the eastern states of West Bengal, Orissa, and Andhra Pradesh. In the northwest and northeastern states, the crop is at advanced growth stages (tillering, booting, and flowering). Above average rainfall is needed during the next few weeks to promote further transplanting and improve the current crop yield expectations. (For more information, contact Dr. Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Jul 11 2012 | Pakistan Cotton: Slow Start to the Production Season
The USDA forecasts Pakistan's 2012/13 cotton production at 9.7 million bales (480-pound bales), down 3 percent from last month and down 8.5 percent from last year. Area harvested is estimated at 3 million hectares, down 3.2 percent from last month, and down 6.3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 704 kilograms per hectare, up 0.3 percent from last month, but down 2.4 percent from last year.Cotton sowing is almost complete in most regions. There has been a slow start to the 2012/13 planting season in part due to delayed and less-than adequate pre-monsoon rainfall. Satellite observations also indicated low water levels in most reservoirs resulting in shortage of irrigation supplies. The Indus River System Authority reported a 15-percent water shortage for this year's summer sowing season. In some areas the drier-than normal conditions have also affected early plant growth and development.In Pakistan the monsoon rainfall typically starts in early July and continues through September. The monsoon season accounts for about 70 percent of the total annual precipitation. The Pakistan Metrological Department has issued a forecast of a normal monsoon season, which is expected to peak in July. The extent and distribution of monsoon rainfall during the July-September period is critical in determining the production of kharif season crops (cotton, rice, millet, sorghum, corn, and sugarcane).Approximately 80 percent of the total Pakistan cotton crop is produced in Punjab province. According to recent local reports, at the end of June planted area was 7 percent lower than the same period last year. Last season (2011/12) Pakistan witnessed record cotton area due to favorable planting conditions in Punjab and Sindh. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202 720 7339.)

Apr 10 2012 | India Cotton: Favorable Prospects for Current Crop
USDA estimates 2011/12 India cotton production at a record 26.5 million bales (480-pound bales), down 2 percent from last month, but nearly unchanged from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 10 percent from last year. The yield is estimated at 473 kilograms per hectare, down 2 percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year.The major factor shaping the current estimate is the apparent rate of seed cotton arrivals at ginning facilities. Seed cotton arrivals in November through February were averaging 25 percent lower than last year. At the end of March the nationwide arrivals improved and the current estimates are 9 percent lower than the same period last year. According to the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), arrivals in Maharashtra are down 27 percent and in Gujarat they are up 4 percent compared to the same time last year. Combined, these states produce approximately 49 percent of India cotton. On the other hand, arrivals in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are up 3 and 8 percent, respectively.Late harvest and farmer holding (anticipating higher prices) were the primary reasons for the relatively low seed cotton arrivals at the beginning of the marketing season. As the season progresses, it is apparent that lower-than-expected yields are also a significant contributing factor, especially in Maharashtra. The monsoon season started at a relatively slow rate in May-June with localized drier-than-normal rainfall. Conditions improved significantly in July-August resulting in an extended planting window and a boost to plantings. The early season drier-thannormal conditions coupled with expansion into low rainfall regions with limited or no supplemental irrigation supplies, raised concerns about overall potential yields. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

Feb 9 2012 | India's Rice Production Projected at Record Levels
India's 2011/12 rice production is forecast at 102 million tons, up 2 percent from last month, and up 6 million or 6.3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 45.2 million hectares, up 0.4 percent from last month, and up 5.9 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at a record 3.39 tons per hectare, up 1.5 percent from last month and 0.4 percent from last year. The major factors shaping the current crop outlook include the better-than-expected Kharif rice production. Favorable 2011 monsoon rains coupled with overall weather conditions in the major rice growing areas supported higher kharif rice acreage (3.0 million hectare above last year) and productivity leading to a record rice production as reflected by strong market arrivals of kharif paddy. According to the recent Government of India’s estimate report the Kharif rice production is now estimated at 87 million tons, a significantly larger crop than previously forecasted. In addition, the Rabi rice crop is now forecast at approximately 15 million tons based on encouraging Rabi rice sowing progress reports. The Kharif rice harvesting is almost complete in most regions especially in the north and south peninsular regions. The Kharif rice crop represents approximately 85% the total India rice production, and early planting is normally in March-May and is harvested in June-October. Late Kharif planting is in June-October and the crop is harvested in November-February. The major Kharif rice producing states are Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. The Rabi rice crop accounts for 15 percent of total India rice production. The crop is planted in November-February and harvested in March-June. The major Rabi rice producing states are West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Feb 9 2012 | High Prospects Projected for the Pakistan Cotton
The USDA estimates Pakistan’s 2011/12 cotton production at 10.4 million bales (480-pound bales), a 4 percent increase from last month and up 18 percent from last year. If achieved this will be the second largest harvest on record. Area harvested is estimated at 3.2 million hectares, the same as last month, and up 10 percent from last year. The yield is estimated at 708 kg/ha, up 4 percent from last month, and up 7 percent from last year.Cotton harvest in Pakistan is almost complete. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA) cumulative seed cotton arrivals at factories show significant improvement compared to the same time in the last two years. At the end of January consolidated cotton arrivals at ginning factories were estimated at approximately 10 million bales, 23 percent higher than the same period last year. There is wide consensus that a significant quantity of cotton is still left with growers, raising prospects that the season’s output will be in excess of the previous estimate of 10 million bales. Historic averages of seed cotton arrivals for the remainder of season (February-May) tend to be around 400,000 bales, which is the basis of the current projection of the final estimate. The major cotton regions of Punjab and upper Sindh experienced favorable conditions during peak vegetative and maturity stages. Favorable monsoon rainfall was reported throughout the season in Punjab province. Sindh province received heavier-than-normal and persistent rains from mid-August to mid-September. General observations and analysis indicated that flooding occurred in a few provincial districts in southeast Sindh including Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, Umarkot, and Badin. The northern Sindh districts were least affected. In contrast, the torrential rains did not cause significant flooding in Punjab province, and in most areas was actually beneficial to maturing cotton and rice crops resulting in above-average crop performance and yields. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202720-7339.)

Jan 12 2012 | India Cotton: High Production Projected for the 2011/12 Crop
The USDA estimates 2011/12 India cotton production at a record 27.0 million bales (480-pound bales), down 2 percent from last month, but up 1.6 million or 6 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 10 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 482 kilograms per hectare, down 2 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year.The 2011 monsoon season started at a relatively slow rate in May, but conditions improved significantly in July and August. Despite a slow start to the season, favorable planting conditions in July and August extended the planting window and boosted plantings in all major growing areas. Rainfall throughout the season progressed well and provided favorable conditions for crop growth and development. The ideal planting conditions, high domestic prices, and anticipated export demand encouraged record cotton plantings in the major growing areas of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. But in some areas, especially Maharashtra, observers are concerned about possible yield reductions caused by below-normal rainfall at the beginning of the planting season and limited irrigation supplies in the areas that typically rely on supplemental irrigation.Seed cotton arrivals from November through early January are averaging 25 percent lower than last year. The largest shortfalls, at approximately 40 percent less than the same time last year, are in Maharashtra, the state that contributes about 20 percent of national production. The delayed start to the harvest campaign and farmer holding (anticipating higher prices) are the primary suspects for the low arrivals, but lower yields may be a significant contributing factor as well. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

Dec 9 2011 | India: Record 2011/12 Soybean Production
The USDA forecasts India's 2011/12 soybean production at a record 11.0 million tons, up 0.4 million or 4 percent from last month and up 12 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 10.27 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 10 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.07 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last month, and up 2 percent from last year. The 2011 monsoon rainfall was normal to above normal across the major soybean regions for most of the season, June to September. The majority of soybean growing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra received adequate-to-excessive rainfall. There were a few isolated regions of drier-than-normal conditions in some areas including southern Rajasthan. The favorable rainfall conditions boosted planted area in many regions. September sowing progress reports indicated sown area at 10 million hectares compared to 9.32 for the corresponding period last year. Satellite imagery analysis indicated increased plantings and excellent crop conditions across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Harvest progressed very well and market arrivals significantly picked up in October and November compared to the same period last year. India's soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon) season under rainfed conditions. The ideal sowing window is early to mid-June and typically commences with the arrival of the monsoon. Some farmers are able to provide supplemental irrigation, though this practice is limited by water reserves and equipment. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

Sep 14 2011 | India Soybeans: Record Crop Projected for 2011/12
The USDA estimates India's 2011/12 soybean production at 10.5 million tons, up 0.7 million or 7 percent from last month and up 7 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 10.27 million hectares, up 0.67 million or 7 percent from last month, and up 0.97 million or 10 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.02 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month but down 3 percent from last year. The 2011 monsoon season started at a relatively slow rate in May, but rainfall conditions improved significantly in July and August. Despite a slow start to the season, favorable planting conditions have prevailed for the major part of the summer season so far. Most soybean regions experienced an extended planting window that resulted in higher overall acreage. The majority of soybean growing areas in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are reporting higher planted area than previously forecast. Beneficial rainfall is continuing, providing very favorable conditions for crop growth and development. End of August planting progress reports indicate sown area at approximately 10.2 million hectares compared to 9.28 for the corresponding period last year. Increased plantings and excellent crop conditions are reported in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. In general, the crop is at advanced podding to harvesting stages and market arrivals are expected to start in mid-October. India's soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon) season under rainfed conditions. The ideal sowing window is early to mid-June and typically commences with the arrival of the monsoon. Some farmers are able to provide supplemental irrigation, though this practice is limited by water reserves and equipment. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)

May 11 2011 | India Cotton: Favorable Prospects for 2011/12 Cotton
The USDA forecasts 2011/12 India cotton production at a record 27 million bales (480-pound bales), up 13 percent from last year. The current estimate is based on a projected 8-percent increase in planted area to 12 million hectares, and a forecast 8-percent increase in yield, to 490 kilograms per hectare. Cotton planting is conducted during May and June. India’s meteorological department recently issued a forecast of normal weather for the 2011 monsoon. If the forecast is correct, the monsoon will provide adequate rainfall for plant development. Normal planting conditions, high domestic prices, and anticipated export demand are likely to encourage record cotton plantings in the major growing areas of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. (For more information contact Dr. Dath Mita, at 202 720 7339, dath.mita@fas.usda.gov)

Mar 10 2011 | India's Cotton Production Revised Downward
India's 2010/11 cotton production is estimated at 25.0 million 480-pound bales, down 4 percent from last month, but up 2 million or 9 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 11 million hectares, a 7 percent upward change from last year. The yield is 495 kilograms per hectare, slightly up from last from last year.The 2010 monsoon rainfall progressed well. In general, cumulative rainfall was very favorable compared to the previous year, promoting good crop development. According to the provisional planting estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture in India, cotton plantings in the major producing areas increased from last year. Encouraged by relatively favorable early-season rainfall, high domestic prices, and anticipated export demand, cotton growers in the States of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh significantly increased planted area compared to last year. As of December, the majority of the crop was in advanced maturity stages and rated in mostly fair to good condition. Harvest is underway and progressing well in most areas. Deliveries to ginning facilities are higher than last year in several states, including Punjab, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh, although recent market arrivals indicate a smaller crop than previously projected. This is due in large part to drier-than-normal weather toward the end of the season, especially in Gujarat. The poor late-season weather has resulted in declining yield prospects. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339)

Dec 10 2010 | India: Corn Crop Projected To Be a Record Crop
India's 2010/11 corn production is forecast at a record 21 million tons, up 5 percent from last month, up 4.32 million or 26 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 8.5 million hectares, 4 percent upward from last month, and up 6 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 2.47 tons per hectare, 1 percent higher than last month and up 18 percent from last year. The current yield is 16 percent more than the five-year average. Roughly, 80 percent of India's corn is produced during the Kharif or monsoon season (June-October) and the rest is grown in Rabi season (September-April). The 2010 monsoon rainfall was characterized as normal-to-above normal in most of the major corn producing areas of Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Gujarat. During the months of June-July, cumulative rainfall was very favorable compared to last year, promoting good crop growth and development. Kharif corn harvesting occurs after the rains end in October and is almost complete. The Rabi planting is underway. According to the recent planting report released now by the Ministry of Agriculture in India, Kharif corn area in August was estimated at 7.2 million hectares compared to 6.88 during the corresponding period last year. Rabi plantings continue to show positive progress with approximately 0.32 million hectares planted by the end of August. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Oct 8 2010 | India's Soybean Production Prospects Improving
India's 2010/11 soybean production is forecast at 9.2 million tons, up 0.4 million or 5 percent from last month. Area is forecast at 9.5 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month, but down 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 0.97 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month, but up 6 percent from last year.The 2010 monsoon rainfall for the country as whole was 4 percent above normal with central India (the major soybean region) receiving 6 percent above normal for the period between June and September. The majority of soybean growing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra received adequate to excess rainfall. There were a few isolated regions of drier-than-normal conditions in northern Madhya Pradesh and in southern Rajasthan, which contributed to a slightly lower planted area compared to last year.End-of-September sowing progress reports indicate sown area at approximately 9.3 million hectares compared to 9.5 for the corresponding period last year. Increased plantings and excellent crop conditions are reported in Maharashtra and Karnataka. In general, the crop is at advanced podding to harvesting stages and market arrivals are expected to pick up in mid-October.India's soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season) under rainfed conditions. The ideal sowing window is early to mid-June and typically commences with the arrival of the monsoon. Some farmers are able to provide supplemental irrigation, though this practice is limited by water reserves and equipment. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Sep 13 2010 | Pakistan: Rice and Cotton Production Regions Damaged by Floods
From late July through August, Pakistan received abundant to excessive monsoon rainfall across the country including many of the major rice and cotton growing areas. The excessive precipitation triggered severe overland and river flooding. The impact of the floodwater is most severe in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (N.W.F.P), Baluchistan, Punjab, and the northern districts of Sindh. These provinces have experienced significant loss of cropland and damage to agricultural infrastructure. The major kharif season (June-November) crops are rice and cotton, but a substantial amount of corn, millet, and sorghum is grown during the kharif season as well. The floodwaters are receding in the mid- and upper-reaches of the Indus Valley but continue to expand in the southern district of Sindh. The final extent of the floodwaters and the resulting damage to crops is still uncertain. The USDA's preliminary assessment, based primarily on satellite imagery, indicates significant crop damage in major rice and cotton areas along the Indus River in Punjab and Sindh provinces.The USDA forecasts 2010/11 Pakistan rice production at 5.3 million tons, down 19 percent from last month, and down 1.5 million or 22 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, 14 percent down from last month, and down 0.4 million or 14 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.31 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year. USDA damage estimates, based primarily on satellite imagery, indicate rice cropland losses of 400,000 hectares. The rice crop is at various development stages ranging from the early vegetative to the reproductive stage. Satellite-derived vegetative indices indicate that upland cropping areas will benefit from abundant soil moisture, where flooding did not occur.Cotton production is forecast at 9.3 million 480-pound bales, down approximately 2 percent from last month, and down 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.0 million hectares, 2 percent down from last month, and the same as last year. Yield is forecast at 675 kilograms per hectare, down 0.4 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. Analysis of satellite imagery suggests cotton cropland losses at around 200,000 hectares. The crop is at various development stages ranging from early vegetative to advanced maturity, and vegetative indices indicate that most upland cropping areas, away from the flooded areas, benefited from abundant soil moisture profiles. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Aug 12 2010 | High Prospects for India Cotton
India's 2010/11 cotton production is forecast at 26.0 million 480-pound bales, up 4 percent from last month, up 2.5 million or 11 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 10.7 million hectares, a 4 percent upward change from last month and up 4 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 529 kilograms per hectare, slightly up from last month and up 6 percent from last year, and up 3 percent from the five-year average.The 2010 monsoon rainfall has progressed well over the cotton regions. During the month of July, cumulative rainfall has been very favorable compared to last year, promoting good crop growth and development. Cotton planting in the major producing areas is nearly complete. According to the latest provisional planting estimate from the Ministry of Agriculture in India, total cotton planting progress through the first week in August is at 10.33 million hectares compared to 9.50 million hectares during the corresponding period last year. Currently, planting is reported higher this year in the states of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat. Given that most of the cotton growing areas have received good rains and the planting is progressing in a timely fashion, the 2010/11 yields are expected to be better than last year. Even with good yield expectations for now, continued seasonal showers to supplement the early, timely planting moisture will be required for the crop to exceed previous production years. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Aug 12 2010 | Excess Monsoon Rainfall Lowers Prospects for Pakistan Cotton
The USDA's current forecast for the 2010/11 Pakistan cotton production is 9.5 million bales,down 7 percent from last month, and down 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 3.1 million hectares, 5 percent down from last month, but up 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 678 kilograms per hectare, down 2 percent from last month.Abundant to excessive southwest monsoon rainfall has occurred across Pakistan including within some of the major cotton growing areas. The excessive monsoon rainfall triggered severe inland flash floods and river flooding. According to recent reports, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formally known as Northwest Frontier Province), Baluchistan, and Punjab have been the provinces most affected. Thousands of people have lost their lives, homes and livelihoods. Crops have been destroyed, and roads and bridges damaged.The major kharif season (June-November) crops are cotton and rice in Pakistan. In addition,production of corn, millet, and sorghum is also substantial during this time. At this point, however, it is too early to have a realistic assessment of the exact impact on crop production through the affected regions. The extent of the floodwaters and the damage to all crops including cotton won't be accurately determined until flood waters recede. The preliminary assessment is that significant damage has occurred, particularly to the major cotton areas in Punjab and Sindh. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

May 11 2010 | World Cotton: Many Countries Contribute to 2010/11 Production Increase
World cotton production is forecast to increase to 113.9 million bales in 2010/11, up 11 percent from 2009/10. Harvested area is forecast to increase to 32.3 million hectares, up 7 percent from the previous year. Yields are forecast at 768 kilograms per hectare, up from 739 kilograms in 2009/10 and compared to the 5-year average of 759 kilograms.Many producing countries are contributing to the increase. U.S. output is forecast at 16.7 million bales, up 4.5 million from last year, and India production is forecast at 25.0 million bales, up 1.5 million. Brazil's output is forecast 0.95 million bales higher, with Pakistan up 0.7 million, Uzbekistan up 0.5 million and Turkey up 0.4 million.After the cotton industry faced excess cotton stocks for the 2008/09 marketing year and low prices starting in late 2008, the industry saw a reversal with diminished stocks in 2009/10 and higher prices from mid-2009. An improving world economy, especially in Asia, resulted in increased demand which has kept world cotton prices attractive and induced the rising output levels projected for 2010/11. World average yield decreased in 2009/10 with relatively poor crops in Australia, the United States, India, the EU-27, and Burkina. Closer-to-trend yields are forecast for the 2010/11 crop. (For further information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0873.)

May 11 2010 | India Cotton: Record Production Projected for 2010/11
India's 2010/11 cotton production is forecast to increase to a record 25.0 million 480-pound bales, up 6.4 percent from the 2009/10 season. The production level is based on projected improvement in potential yields and record area. The area is forecast at10.3 million hectares, up slightly (0.4 percent) from last year. Yield is forecast at 528 kg/ha, up 6 percent from last year. The major factors shaping the 2010/11 crop outlook are both market- and weather-related.Growers are expected to be encouraged by continued high domestic cotton prices and an anticipated rise in export demand. In addition, farmers' planting intentions are being encouraged by recent official forecasts of normal-to-above-normal 2010 southwest monsoon season rainfall. If the weather forecast holds, it will be in contrast to last year's unfavorable monsoon season. In most cotton growing regions, the 2009 monsoon season was characterized by a delayed start, and inadequate and uneven rainfall distribution.Cotton planting commences in May in the southern growing regions and will start in June in the central and northern regions. (For more information, contact Dr. Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

May 11 2010 | India's 2010/11 Rice Production Projected to Increase
India's 2010/11 rice production is projected to increase to 99.0 million tones (milled), up 13 percent from 2009/10. The projected increased production level is, in large part, based on an expected increase in planted area and continued improvement in yields. The area is forecast at 45.0 million hectares, up 10 percent from last year. The yield (rough) is forecast at 3.3 tones per hectare, up 3 percent from last year. The major factors shaping the 2010/11 crop outlook are both market- and weather-related.Growers are expected to be encouraged by the continued favorable government rice procurement program. Last season the government increased the procurement price for most rice grades. Farmers expect the procurement prices to improve or remain firm. In addition, farmers' planting intentions for the upcoming Kharif (summer) season are being encouraged by recent official forecasts of normal-to-above-normal 2010 southwest monsoon rainfall. The monsoon rainfall is critical for the rainfed dependent Kharif crop, but the seasonal rains are also important in replenishing irrigation reservoirs vital for Rabi (winter) crop irrigation. If the current weather forecast holds, it will be in contrast to last year's unfavorable monsoon season. The 2009/10 India rice crop was significantly reduced to a 5-year-low by the poor monsoon rainfall. The 2009 southwest monsoon season (May-September) was characterized as the worst in many years in several aspects including a delayed start, inadequate precipitation and uneven rainfall distribution.The Kharif rice crop represents approximately 85 percent of the total India rice production. Early planting is normally in March-May and is harvested in June-October. Late Kharif planting is in June-October and the crop is harvested in November-February. The major Kharif rice producing states are Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. The Rabi rice crop accounts for 15 percent of total India rice production. The crop is planted in November-February period and harvested in March-June. The major Rabi rice producing states are West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. (For more information, contact Dr. Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Mar 11 2010 | USDA Forecast a Decline in India's 2009/10 Corn Production
The USDA's current forecast of India's 2009/10 corn production is at18 million tons, down 0.5 million or 3 percent from last month and down 1.29 million or 7 percent from last year. The area harvested is forecast at 8 million hectares, down 0.4 million or 5 percent from last month, but similar to area planted in 2008/09. This season's Kharif area planted is estimated at approximately 7 million hectares and Rabi forecasted at 1 million hectares. Yield is forecast at 2.25 tons per hectare, down 7 percent from last season. The 2009/10 corn crop was significantly reduced by the poor monsoon rainfall. The 2009 southwest monsoon season (May-September) was generally poor in almost all the major growing areas including Rajasthan, Karnataka, Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar. Over 83% of the corn is grown during the southwest monsoon season. The southwest monsoon rainfall usually starts in May-June and in 2009 eight weeks into its cycle, the country received below normal rains for six of those eight weeks. The poor timing and distribution of the monsoon rainfall resulted in significant reductions in area planted and potential yields. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339).

Mar 11 2010 | USDA Forecast an Increase in India's 2009/10 Sorghum Production
The USDA's current forecast of India's 2009/10 Sorghum production is 6.4 million tons, up 0.4 million or 7 percent from last month and down 0.9 million or 12 percent from last year. The area harvested is forecast at 7 million hectares, down 0.8 million from last month or 10 percent, and down 0.7 million or 9 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 0.914 tones per hectare, down 4 percent from last year. Sorghum is grown both during the Kharif (May-December) and Rabi (September-April) season and the key growing states include Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh. Usually early-sown varieties are planted in September-October and late maturing varieties are sown through mid-November. Harvesting of the Kharif crop is almost complete and the majority of the Rabi season early sown crop is at booting stage. The latest official country data indicate that Sorghum plantings declined due to the drier-than-normal September soil moisture conditions that slowed planting operations. Significant planted area declines have been reported in Maharashtra and Karnataka. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339).

Mar 11 2010 | India's 2009/10 Rice Production Better Than Previously Expected
India's 2009/10 rice production is forecast at 87 million tons, up 3 percent from last month, but down 12 million or 12 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 41 million hectares, up 5.7 percent from last month, but down 7 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 3.18 tones per hectare, down 2.6 percent from last month and down 2.8 percent from last year.The major factors shaping the current crop outlook include the better-than-expected Kharif rice production. According to the recent Government of India's Second Advance Estimate report the Kharif rice production is now estimated at 72.87 million tons, a significantly larger crop than previously forecasted. In addition, the Rabi rice crop is now forecast at approximately 15 million tons based on encouraging Rabi rice sowing progress reports. The 2009/10 India rice crop was significantly reduced by the poor monsoon rainfall. The 2009 southwest monsoon season (May-September) was characterized as the worst in many years (37 years by some estimates). The southwest monsoon usually starts in May-June and this year, eight weeks into its cycle, the country received below normal rains for six of those eight weeks. The monsoon rainfall is critical for the rainfed dependent Kharif(summer) crop, but the seasonal rains are also important in replenishing irrigation reservoirs vital for Rabi (winter) crop irrigation. The Kharif rice harvesting is almost complete in most regions especially in the north and south peninsular. The Kharif rice crop represents approximately 85% of the total India rice production, and early planting is normally in March-May and is harvested in June-October. Late Kharif planting is in June-October and the crop is harvested in November-February. The major Kharif rice producing states are Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. These states experienced the worst monsoon rainfall conditions in 2009. The Rabi rice crop accounts for 15% total India rice production. The Rabi crop planting is in the final stages. The crop is planted in November-February period and harvested in March-June. The major Rabi rice producing states are West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339).

Dec 10 2009 | India: Lower Cotton Production for 2009/10
India's 2009/10 cotton production is forecast at 23.8 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from last month but up 1.2 million or 5 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 10.26 million hectares, up 3 percent from last month and up 9 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 505 kilograms per hectare, down 4 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. The current yield is slightly less than the five-year average. Despite the overall inadequate and uneven distribution of this season's monsoon rainfall, record planted area is expected because growing areas in the Central Zone experienced less rainfall deficiencies compared to other parts of the country. Encouraged by relatively favorable rainfall, high domestic prices, and anticipated export demand, cotton growers in the States of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are reported to have significantly increased planted area compared to last year.Significant yield decline is expected due to delayed planting, uneven seasonal rainfall distribution, and expansion of dryland cotton. In addition, excessive rainfall due to the tropical cyclone in mid-October is estimated to have caused limited crop damage and delayed early harvest in some regions. As of November, the majority of the crop was in advanced maturity stages and rated in mostly fair to good condition. Harvesting operations are progressing well. Cotton deliveries to ginning facilities are picking up in several states, including Punjab, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339, mita.dath@fas.usda.gov.)

Dec 10 2009 | India: Rapeseed Production for 2009/10 Forecast to Decrease
India's 2009/10 rapeseed production is forecast at 6.6 million tons, down 0.5 million or 7 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 6 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 6.5 million hectares, down 0.5 million or 7 percent from last month and down 0.1 million or 2 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.02 tones per hectare, down 4 percent from last year. Rapeseed planting is nearly complete in key growing states of Rajasthan, UtterPradesh, and Haryana. Early-sown varieties usually are planted in September and October and late-maturing varieties are sown through mid-November.The latest official data indicate that rapeseed plantings stand at approximately 6.0 million hectares, up slightly from the same time last year. However, lower planted area is reported in Rajasthan, the state responsible for 42 percent of total rapeseed production in India. Earlier expectations of higher rapeseed production are declining, in part, due to drier-than-normal conditions at the onset of planting and acreage competition with wheat. Wheat continues to sustain relatively high government minimum support prices (MSP). (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339, mita.dath@fas.usda.gov.)

Sep 11 2009 | India: Peanut Production Estimated Lower Due to Insufficient Southern Rainf
India's total peanut production for 2009/10 is forecast at 5.2 million tons, down 1.6 million or 24percent from last month and down 17 percent from last year. Despite improved rainfall in somekey peanut growing areas by the end of August, the USDA is forecasting slightly below-averageyield, at 0.96 tons per hectare, due to extended dry spells earlier in the summer during cropestablishment and development growth stages. India's monsoon rainfall pattern has been erraticthis year with many regions receiving inadequate and uneven rainfall distribution. Cumulativerainfall for the season is 25 percent below normal for the country as a whole. The low rainfallhas resulted in reduced sown area and lower potential yields, particularly in key peanut growingregions in the south and northwest. By the end of August, planting progress reports indicated that'sown area was approximately 24 percent lower than last year. The area decline was mainly inAndhra Pradesh and Gujarat, the nation's two largest producers. (For more information, contactDath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Sep 11 2009 | India: Lower Soybean Production Forecast
India's soybean production for 2009/10 is forecast at 9.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 10percent from last month, and down 0.1 million or 1 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 9.5million hectares, down 0.3 million or 3 percent from last month, and down 0.1 million or 1percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 0.95 million tons per hectare, down 7 percent fromlast month but unchanged from last year. Despite this season's inadequate, erratic and unevenlydistributed monsoon rains, India's soybeans were planted under generally favorable conditions.Planting was complete by mid-August, with area reported at approximately 9.5 million hectares.Crop area has reportedly increased in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. India's'soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (summer monsoon) season under rainfedconditions, but some farmers are able to provide supplemental irrigation, depending on availablewater reserves and equipment. Unusually hot weather in late August, during the temperaturesensitivepod-development stage, has reduced yield prospects in India's main soybean region.The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (with 53 percent of total output), Maharashtra(34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). (For additional information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Sep 11 2009 | India: Estimated Cotton Production Reduced Following Hot, Dry August Weathe
India's 2009/10 cotton production is forecast at 24.0 million bales, down 1.0 million or 4 percentfrom last month, but up 1.5 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 9.9 millionhectares, up 0.25 million or 3 percent from last month, and up 0.5 million or 6 percent from lastyear. Yield is forecast at 528 kilograms per hectare, down 6 percent from last month, but up 1percent from last year. The 2009/10 monsoon pattern has been characterized by inadequate anduneven rainfall distribution, with seasonal precipitation 20 percent below normal in key cottongrowingregions of central India. Cumulative rainfall within 20 percent of the long-term averageis not considered to be especially unusual, however, and conditions in cotton growing areas arerelatively favorable. Favorable weather enabled sowing to progress rapidly in July. Accordingto in-country reports, cotton sowing progress is currently 12 percent above this time last year. Inparticular, area is up in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka.Although sown area has increased and the crop is progressing well, there were concerns inAugust that the hot and dry conditions in some major cotton producing regions would loweryield prospects. (For additional information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Aug 19 2009 | India: Favorable Weather Boosts Wheat Yields and Production
India's 2009/10 wheat production is estimated at 80.6 million tons, up 3.0 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 2.0 million or 3 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 27.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 1 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 2.90 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last year. Favorable weather conditions, particularly cool temperatures during the growing period, benefited the crop. India's 2009/10 wheat crop was sown from September-October 2008 and harvest was completed in the May-June 2009 period. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Aug 19 2009 | India: Poor Monsoon Rainfall Lowers Rice Production Expectations
India's 2009/10 rice production is estimated at 84.0 million tons, down 15.5 million or 16 percent from last month and down 15.4 million or 15 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 40.0 million hectares, down 4.1 million or 9 percent from both last month and last year. The Indian Meteorological Department's long range forecast for this year's Southwest Monsoon (June-September) is for near-normal total precipitation (93 percent). However, most regions of the country have experienced below-normal rainfall during the June and July, with the countrywide rainfall deficiency standing at 19 percent as of the end of July. India's major rice growing regions have suffered the most from the moisture deficiency, with northwestern and northeastern states experiencing the largest rainfall deficiencies: 30 to 42 percent respectively. Recent satellite imagery over the country indicates significantly reduced crop vegetation compared to last year, especially in the predominant rice growing states of northern India. Broadly, sowing of kharif or summer crops was reported at 46 percent of the area that would be normal as of July 31. The largest reported decline in summer crop area this year is attributed to rice. Total rice area is projected to decline significantly in key growing regions in the north and northeast (Punjab, Haryana, and Utter Pradesh). In some areas authorities have advised farmers to consider planting short-duration paddy or alternate crops such as sorghum and pearl millet. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Apr 9 2009 | India's Rapeseed Production Boosted
The USDA forecasts India's 2008/09 rapeseed production at 7.0 million tons, up 0.42 million or 6 percent from last month, and up 1.55 million or 28 percent from last year. The area harvested is forecast at 6.6 million hectares, down 0.4 million from last month or 6 percent, but up 0.9 million or 16 percent from last year. A record yield is forecast at 1.06 tones per hectare, up 0.1 from last year or 11 percent. The latest government of India data indicates that rabi or winter season rapeseed planting is up from last year. The government's sowing progress report of March 13, 2009 shows the area planted estimated at 6.6 million hectares, compared to 5.98 million for the same time last season. USDA-FAS analyst's in-country field observations and discussions conducted in March, 2009 indicated that approximately 80 percent of the crop has been harvested. The estimated record yield and increase in rapeseed area from last season is due to favorable weather conditions throughout the growing season. In addition, farmers continue to respond to the strong Minimum Support Price (MSP) policy. Large harvests are expected in key production regions of Rajasthan, Utter Pradesh, and Haryana. (For more information, contact, Dath Mita at 202-720-7339.)

Jan 12 2009 | India Cotton Production for 2008/09 Revised Downward
India's 2008/09 cotton production is estimated at 23.0 million bales, down 1.0 million or 4percent from last month, and down 1.6 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is estimated at9.35 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last year, and yield is estimated at 536kilograms per hectare, down 4 percent from last year. According to the FAS Office ofAgricultural Affairs in New Delhi, this season's planted area decreased compared to last seasonbecause of delayed planting and a shift to other crops. In parts of central and southern India,planting was delayed due to insufficient July rainfall. The delays resulted in a relatively shorterplanting window. Additionally, farmers in some parts of the country, including Gujarat andMaharashtra, decided to plant short-season, early-maturing cotton varieties instead. In general,'such varieties are lower yielding than full-season varieties. In the mainly irrigated northerngrowing states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, planted area is estimated down 17 percent ona year-to-year basis due chiefly to a shift from cotton to other crops such as coarse grains.Harvesting continues to progress very well, facilitated by mild, dry weather conditions.However, market arrivals are slow compared to the same period last year. Cotton Corporation ofIndia reports that cumulative cotton arrivals through January 3, 2009 are estimated at 9.98million US bales, down 21 percent compared to 12.7 during the same period last year. Thedecline in arrivals is significantly larger in the major cotton producing states of Gujarat,Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Dec 11 2008 | Pakistan Cotton Production Improved
Pakistan's 2008/09 cotton production is estimated at 9.4 million bales, up 0.4 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 2.9 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.1 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 706 kg/ha, up 4 percent from last month and above the 5-year average. Harvesting continues to progress very well, facilitated by mild, dry weather conditions. As of December 1, 2008/09, arrivals were 15 percent ahead of last year. According to Pakistan Cotton Ginning Association's arrival and ginning data, 6.5 million bales have arrived thus far compared to 5.7 million by the same time last year. This is 0.8 million bales more than last season. Analysis of historical arrival and ginning data (1999 - 2007) indicates that cumulative arrivals through December 1 represent 65 to 70 percent of the total crop. According to a U.S. agricultural attaché report, this season's favorable yield factors included early sowing and reduced pest pressure. Cotton farmers in the largest producing state of Punjab planted earlier than normal. Relatively dry weather conditions suppressed insect reproduction resulting in marginal pest infestations that were easily controlled through pesticide applications. (For more information, please contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Oct 10 2008 | India: Cotton Production Forecast at a Record High
India's 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at a record 25.0 million bales, up 0.5 million fromlast month, and up 0.4 million from last year. Area is forecast at 9.4 million hectares, up 0.2million from last month but down 0.15 million from last year. According to the FAS Office ofAgricultural Affairs in New Delhi, the latest 2008/09 cotton planting progress report from thegovernment of India indicated a steady increase in progress from last month but at a rate slightlybehind last season. Planted area for 2008/09 is likely to be lower than last year due partly to lateplanting in Maharashtra and Gujarat, the major cotton growing states, and due partly to expectedarea shift to other crops. Cotton planting is complete in most areas except in the southern statesof Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. September rainfall was normal to above normal in the majorgrowing areas, raising concerns of delayed harvest in the northern states of Punjab and Haryana.Continued improvements in cotton yields are expected largely as a result of the increasingadoption of Bt cotton varieties. It is anticipated that Bt cotton planting in 2008/09 will accountfor more than 70 percent of the expected cotton area. During the previous two years, thegovernment of India approved 62 new insect-resistant Bt varieties for commercial cultivation. Inaddition to the officially approved varieties, there are over 50 Bt cotton hybrids unofficially bredand marketed by farmers and seed companies at lower prices. The use of Bt cotton varieties islargely responsible for the forecast record yield of 579 kilograms per hectare this season. (Formore information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Sep 12 2008 | India: Cotton Production Forecast Increased
India's 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at 24.5 million bales, up 0.5 million or 2 percentfrom last month, and down 0.1 million from last year. Area is forecast at 9.2 million hectares, up0.1 million from last month, and down 0.35 million or 4 percent from last year. The kharif'season (June-November) for 2008/09 cotton planting in India is almost complete. Planting isnormally over by mid-August in the central states (Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh)and by the end of August in most southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu). Themajor cotton growing areas experienced significantly below normal rainfall from July throughmid-August. The rainfall situation improved considerably in late August and provided a boost tocotton planting progress. Despite delayed planting, yield prospects remain favorable due to arelatively higher proportion of Bt cotton varieties and absence of major pests and diseases.September rainfall is needed to maintain crop prospects in the southern growing states. (For moreinformation, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Sep 12 2008 | Pakistan: Poor Monsoon Rains Reduce Estimated Cotton Production
Pakistan cotton production for 2008/09 is forecast at 9.0 million bales, down 0.4 million fromlast month, but up 0.1 million from last year. Area is estimated at 2.9 million hectares, down 0.2million from last month, and down 0.1 million from last year. Late planting, resulting frominsufficient monsoon rainfall in key cotton growing areas, is the major cause for the reduced areaand production estimates. Eighty percent of the cotton crop is grown in the state of Punjab and20% in Sindh. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071)

Aug 12 2008 | India: Record Cotton Yield Forecast for 2008/09
India's 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at 24.0 million bales, down 1.5 million or from last month and down 0.8 million from last year. Area is forecast at 9.1 million hectares, down 0.25 million from last month and down 0.45 million from last year. According to the FAS Office of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, cotton planting for the 2008/09 season is forecast to decrease from last season as a result of a shift to rice, coarse grains, and other crops. Sowing in the mainly irrigated northern growing states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan was completed several weeks ago. Cotton area in this region is estimated down 17 percent on from last year. Planting was delayed in parts of central and southern India due to insufficient July rainfall, but recent rains in Gujarat and Maharashtra enabled sowing to resume. It is widely accepted that the strong upward trend in India's cotton yield in recent years is largely a result of the increasing adoption of Bt cotton. It is estimated that Bt cotton will account for more than 70 percent of total 2008/09 cotton area. During the previous two years, the government of India approved 62 new insect-resistant Bt varieties for commercial cultivation. In addition to the approved varieties, there are over 50 Bt cotton hybrids, illegally bred and marketed by farmers and seed companies, which are available at lower prices versus the officially approved varieties. Given the year-toyear increase of Bt cotton area, a record yield of 574 kilograms per hectare is forecast for the season. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Aug 12 2008 | India: Wheat Production at Record Levels
India's 2008/09 wheat production is estimated at 78.4 million tons, up 1.6 million or 2 percent from last month, and up 2.6 million or 3 percent from last year. The area estimate is 28.0 million hectares, up 0.3 million or 1 percent from last month, but unchanged from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 2.8 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last year. Favorable weather conditions, particularly cool temperatures during the growing period, are primarily responsible for the reported record output this year. The 2008/09 India wheat crop was sown during November 2007 and harvested by May 2008. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

Jul 11 2008 | India Cotton: Record Crop Remains Forecast for 2008/09
India's 2008/09 cotton production is forecast at a record 25.5 million bales, down 1.0 millionfrom last month, but up 0.2 million from last year. The area is forecast at 9.35 million hectares,down 0.3 million from last month, and down 0.18 million from last year. According to the FASOffice of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, cotton planting for the 2008/09 season is expectedto decrease from last season as a result of a shift to oilseeds and coarse grains. The major portionof the area shift is expected in the state of Gujarat as farmers move back into the more profitablepeanut. Sowing in the mainly irrigated Northern Zone has been completed for several weeks;however, rains in Andhra Pradesh have so far been insufficient to initiate widespread planting.Recent light rains in the western growing state of Gujarat followed by heavier rains have allowedthe resumption of cotton sowing. It is widely accepted that the strong upward trend in India'scotton yield in recent years is largely a result of the increasing adoption of Bt cotton. It isanticipated Bt cotton planting in 2008/09 will account for more than 70 percent of the expectedcotton area. During the previous two years, the government of India approved 62 new insectresistant Bt varieties for commercial cultivation. In addition to the approved varieties, there areover 50 Bt cotton hybrids, illegally bred and marketed by farmers and seed companies, which areavailable at lower prices versus the officially approved varieties. Given the year-to-year increaseof Bt area, a record yield of 594 kilograms per hectare is forecast for the season. (For moreinformation, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jul 11 2008 | India Soybean: Second Largest Crop Forecast
India's 2008/09 soybean production is forecast at 8.7 million tons, unchanged from last month,but down 0.6 million or 6 percent from last year. The area is forecast at a record 9.1 millionhectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. Highergovernment support prices for soybeans and increasing government capacity in oilseedprocurement will fuel increased plantings. Better soybean returns received by farmers last'season as compared with competing crops are also expected to result in a record area this season.The major growing areas of central and eastern Madhya Pradesh received excellent rainfall for'sowing, in contrast to parts of western Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra where there has beenbelow normal rainfall as of July 5. Currently the 2008/09 forecast production will be secondonly to last season's record production. Yield for 2008/09 is forecast above average but belowthe record set partly because of last season's abundant July rainfall. Soybeans are grownexclusively in the kharif season under mostly rainfed conditions. The ideal sowing window isearly to mid-June and typically commences with the arrival of the monsoon. Some farmers areable to provide supplemental irrigation, though this practice is limited by water reserves andequipment. The main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53%), Maharashtra (34%), andRajasthan (8%). (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jul 11 2008 | India Corn: Production Forecast at Near Record Level
The USDA forecasts 2008/09 India corn production at 18.5 million tons, up 1.0 million or 6percent from last month, but virtually unchanged from last season's record production of 18.54million tons. Area is forecast at a record 8.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up1 percent from last year. The higher estimated production is attributed to a forecast record areaand an above average yield following favorable sowing conditions in major growing states ofUttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. In addition, the increasing use of hybrid'seeds is expected to result in above average yields. According to the government of India,'sowing progress is outpacing last season. As of July 4, sown area was 26 percent greater than atthe same time last year, and planting was estimated to be 32 percent complete. (For moreinformation, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Apr 9 2008 | India Cotton: Increasing Use of Bt Varieties Boosts Yield
India cotton production for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 25.0 million bales, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month and up 3.2 million or 15 percent from last year. The year-to-year increase is attributed to higher sown area, generally favorable monsoon rainfall, and a forecast record yield. Area is estimated at a record 9.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million or 4 percent from last year. According to the U.S. agricultural attaché in New Delhi, the record area is the result of strong cotton prices and positive returns received by farmers in 2006/07. It is widely acknowledged by officials and other specialists that the strong upward trend in India's cotton yield in recent years is due largely to the increasing adoption of insect-resistant Bt cotton. In 2006/07, the government of India approved 62 new Bt varieties for commercial cultivation; in 2007/08 Bt cotton will likely account for more than 60 percent of the total cotton area. Given the year-to-year increase in Bt area, 2007/08 yield is forecast to reach a record 573 kilograms per hectare. Harvest of the 2007/08 crop is underway, and a report from the Cotton Corporation of India indicates that 21.9 million bales had arrived at ginning facilities by April 6. By the same date last season, arrivals had reached 18.7 million bales, or 86 percent of final 2006/07 output. (For additional information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 11 2008 | India Corn: Production Forecast at Record Level
The USDA forecasts India corn production for 2007/08 at a record 16.8 million tons, up 0.5 million or 3 percent from last month and up 1.7 million or 11 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 8.3 million hectares, down 0.3 million or 2 percent from last month. The higher estimated production is attributed to a forecast record yield following favorable growing conditions in major growing states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and increasing use of hybrid seeds. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 11 2008 | India Rice: Generous Monsoon Rains Boost Estimated Production
The USDA forecasts India rice production for 2007/08 at a record 94.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 2 percent from last month and up 0.65 million or 1 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 44.0 million hectares, 1.5 million above the five-year average. The government of India's preliminary estimate placed the 2007/08 kharif (fall and early winter harvested) crop of rice production at 81.5 million tons, about one million tons higher than the 2006/07 kharif output. Production of the mostly-irrigated rabi (spring-harvested) rice is forecast to reach 12.5 million tons, boosting total 2007/08 rice production to an estimated 94.0 million. Often in years of above-average monsoon rainfall, rice yield in India sets a new record. Yield for 2007/08 is forecast at a record 3.21 tons per hectare. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Feb 8 2008 | India Rapeseed Revised Up
India's 2007/08 rapeseed production is estimated at 5.5 million tons, up 0.1 million or 2 percent from last month and down 0.3 million from last year. Area is forecast at 5.9 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and down 0.7 million from last year. According to the latest Indian government data, the rabi or winter season rapeseed planting is down from last year. The estimated decline in rapeseed area from last season is because of dry conditions and changes in support price policy announced in October 2007. Area is down this season, as rapeseed area was shifted into wheat in Haryana and Rajasthan. The change reflects the recent Minimum Support Price (MSP) or procurement price established by the Government of India favoring wheat over rapeseed this season. The wheat MSP was lifted from 750 Rupees (per 100 kilograms) to a new high of 1000 Rupees for the current season. This results in a 33 percent increase on a year-toyear basis for wheat; in contrast, the rapeseed MSP was bolstered only 6 percent year-to-year, from 1715 to 1800 Rupees. Yield was lowered from last month based on dry conditions in many growing areas since sowing began in early November. Yield is currently forecast at 932 kilograms per hectare and is similar to the five-year average. Rapeseed yield is heavily dependent on weather conditions through the flowering period, which occurs in February. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-013.)

Jan 11 2008 | Pakistan: Insect and Disease Infestation Reduces Estimated Cotton Productio
Pakistan cotton production for 2007/08 is forecast at 8.2 million bales, down 0.3 million or 4 percent from last month and down 1.7 million or 17 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.25 million hectares which matches last year's record, and remains high as a result of favorable prices for cotton. Heavy rainfall during sowing, however, resulted in poor germination in some of the growing areas. Other areas were sown later than the optimal planting window due to irrigation water shortages. Estimated yield is down 17 percent from last year. High temperatures in August and September resulted in the shedding of bolls. More recently, damage from disease and pests has become apparent, including relatively widespread attack by cotton leaf curl virus and mealy bugs. As a result of the lower yields, gin arrivals are down 18 percent as of the beginning of January, with harvest approximately 90 percent complete. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jan 11 2008 | India: Record Cotton Production Forecast
India's 2007/08 cotton production is forecast at a record 25.0 million bales, up 1.0 million or 4 percent from last month, and up 3.2 million from last year. Area is estimated at a record 9.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million or 4 percent from last year. With the 2007 monsoon providing beneficial rainfall, yield is forecast to increase 11 percent over last season. According to the FAS Office of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, the increase in planted area is the result of strong cotton prices and positive returns received by farmers in 2006/07. It is widely accepted that the strong upward trend in India's cotton yield in recent years is a direct result of the increasing adoption of Bt cotton. For 2007/08, Bt cotton planting will likely account for more than 60 percent of the total planted area. In 2006/07, the government of India approved 62 new insect-resistant Bt varieties for commercial cultivation. In addition to the approved varieties, local specialists estimate there are over 50 Bt cotton hybrids, illegally bred and marketed by farmers and seed companies, which are available at lower prices versus the officially approved varieties. Due to increase in Bt-cotton area, a record yield of 573 kilograms per hectare is forecast for the season. A January 5 report from the Cotton Corporation of India indicates that 12.7 million bales have been delivered to gins thus far. By the same date last year, 10.3 million bales had arrived representing 47 percent of the final 2006/07 output. (For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Dec 11 2007 | India: Weather and Economic Conditions Lower Rapeseed Area Forecast
The USDA estimates India's 2007/08 rapeseed production at 5.4 million tons, down 0.3 millionor 5 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is forecastat 5.7 million hectares, down 0.3 million or 5 percent from last month and down 0.9 million or14 percent from last year. According to the latest government data, sown area as of November30 had reached 5.3 million hectares, as compared to 6.1 million for the same time period last'season when 92 percent of the harvested area was sown.

Nov 13 2007 | Pakistan Insect and Disease Infestation Threatens Cotton Crop
Pakistan cotton production for 2007/08 is forecast at 9.75 million bales, down 1.25 million or 11percent from last month and down 0.15 million from last year. Area is forecast at 3.25 millionhectares, unchanged from last month and unchanged from last year. Area remains forecast at lastyears record as a result of favorable prices for cotton. However, heavy rainfall during sowingresulted in poor germination in some of the growing areas. Other areas were sown later than theoptimal planting window due to irrigation water shortages. Growing conditions have been mixedthis season in part because of high temperatures in August and September which resulted inplants shedding bolls. More recently, damage from disease and pests have become moreapparent.

Nov 13 2007 | India Rapeseed Loses Ground to Wheat
India's 2007/08 rapeseed production is forecast at 5.7 million tons, down 1.4 million from lastmonth and down 0.1 million from last year. Area is estimated at 6.0 million hectares, down 1.4million from last month and down 0.6 million from last year. According to the latest governmentdata, the rabi/winter season rapeseed sowing progress is below that of last season for the sametime period. The drop in rapeseed area from last season is due to recent changes in support pricepolicy.

Sep 13 2007 | India Cotton: Record Production Forecast
India's 2007/08 cotton production is forecast at a record 23.5 million bales, up 0.5 million or 2percent from last month, and up 1.7 million or 8 percent from last year. Area is estimated at arecord 9.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.3 million or 4 percent from lastyear. With the 2007 monsoon providing mostly favorable rainfall, yield is forecast at a recordlevel. According to the FAS Office of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, cotton plantingincreased this year as a result of strong cotton prices and positive returns received by farmers in2006/07.

Jun 11 2007 | Fifth Consecutive Record For India Cotton Output
India's 2007/08 cotton production is forecast at a record 22.5 million bales, up 1.0 million fromlast year. The area forecast is a record 9.5 million hectares, up 0.4 million or 4 percent from lastyear. Assuming a normal 2007 monsoon, production is forecast to increase 5 percent over last'season due to a higher sown area and a forecast record yield.

Mar 12 2007 | India Cotton Production Rises to a New High
India's 2006/07 cotton production is estimated at 21.5 million bales, up 0.5 million from lastmonth and up 2.45 million or 13 percent from last year. The area forecast is 9.25 millionhectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.38 million or 4 percent from last year. The increase in estimated production is based on higher than expected market arrivals. Cottonarrivals to date have tracked above last season in all production regions. Total market arrivalsfor India through March 3, 2007, are estimated at 16.8 million bales compared to 14.1 millionbales for the comparable period last year. The area estimate of 9.25 is the compilation of Stategovernment data. According to FAS/New Delhi Office of Agricultural Affairs, cotton plantingfor the 2006/07 season increased to 9.25 million hectares as a result of strong cotton prices andpositive returns received by farmers in 2005/06.It is widely accepted that the strong upward trend in Indias cotton yield in recent years is adirect result of the increasing adoption of Bt cotton. Given the continuing development ofoptimally suited Bt varieties for the various production zones within India and the year-to-yearincrease of Bt area, a record yield of 506 kilograms per hectare is forecast for the season. Btvarieties are not typically higher yielding than other quality hybrids or non-GMO varieties, but ayield advantage is realized in India and other developing countries through the significantreduction of yield losses due to bollworms. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at202-690-0135.)

Jan 12 2007 | India Rapeseed Loses Ground to Wheat
India's 2006/07 rapeseed production is estimated at 6.2 million tons, down 0.3 million or 5percent from last month, and down 0.6 million or 9 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 6.7million hectares, down 0.4 million or 6 percent from last month, and down 0.6 million or 8percent from last year.According to the latest government data, 2006/07 rabi/winter season rapeseed planting is downfrom last season. As of December 29, 2006, rapeseed had been sown on 6.6 million hectares, ascompared to 7.2 million at the same time last season when 98 percent was sown. Assuming a'similar pattern this year, the total sown area is forecast to reach 6.7 million hectares.The decline in rapeseed area from last season is due to recent changes in support price policy.Area is down this season, as rapeseed area was shifted into wheat in Haryana and Rajasthan, andto chickpeas in Madhya Pradesh. The Minimum Support Price (MSP) established by theGovernment of India favors wheat over rapeseed this season. The wheat MSP for the current'season was raised from 650 rupees per 100 kilo to a new high of 750 rupees. This is a 15 percentincrease year-to-year; in contrast, rapeseed MSP remained flat on the year.Yield is currently forecast at 925 kilograms per hectare and is marginally below the five-yearaverage. Rapeseed yield is heavily dependent on weather conditions from now until theflowering period, which typically occurs in February. Sowing for the 2006/07 India rapeseedcrop was primarily accomplished in November 2006. The main harvest will take place in March2007. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Sep 12 2006 | Pakistan Cotton Reduced by Heavy Rains
Pakistan's 2006/07 cotton production is forecast at 10.1 million bales, down 0.4 million from last month, but up 0.25 million from last year. Area is forecast at a record 3.25 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.15 million from last year. Area is estimated above last season because of favorable prices received by farmers in the 2005/06 season. Cotton, predominantly a monsoon season crop, is planted from the end of April in the Sindh province and into July in Punjab, the largest producing province. The 2006/07 season had a good start, with near normal weather accompanied by a sufficient supply of inputs. Above normal rainfall at the end of August and early September is anticipated to have reduced yield. The heaviest rainfall fell in the Sindh province, resulting in flooding and highly saturated soil for over 2 weeks. Sindh accounts for 15 percent of the total Pakistan crop. Heavy rains in central Punjab may also lower production in this province. The province of Punjab accounts for approximately 85 percent of the cotton produced in Pakistan. September rainfall in the Punjab is frequently associated with higher pest pressure. A better assessment of the situation will be known by the end of September. Dry and sunny conditions are now needed throughout the cotton regions until harvest is completed.(For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield, 202-690-0135.)

Jun 9 2006 | Third Consecutive Record For India Cotton Output
India's 2006/07 cotton production is forecast at a record 20.0 million bales, up 1.0 million from last year. The area forecast is 9.0 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last year. Assuming a normal 2006 monsoon, production is forecast to increase 5 percent over last season due to a higher sown area and a forecast record yield. According to FAS/New Delhi, cotton planting for the 2006/07 season is forecast to increase to 9.0 million hectares as a result of strong cotton prices and positive returns received by farmers in 2005/06. FAS/Post anticipates the Bt cotton planting in 2006/07 to climb to 4.2 million hectares, thereby accounting for almost half of the expected cotton area. The Government of India (GOI) recently approved 20 new Bt varieties for commercial cultivation. The new approvals include two varieties that include a Bt gene developed by a local university and two varieties with a Bt gene sourced from China. The other varieties have the Bt (Cry1Ac) gene developed by Monsanto that was approved in MY 2002/03. It is widely accepted that the strong upward trend in India's cotton yield in recent years is a direct result of the increasing adoption of Bt cotton. Given the continuing development of optimally suited Bt varieties for the various production zones within India and the year-to-year increase of Bt area, a record yield of 484 kilograms per hectare is forecast for the season compared to last year's of 468 kilograms. Bt varieties are not typically higher yielding than other quality hybrids or non-GMO varieties, but India and other developing countries have a yield advantage because of the significant reduction of yield losses due to bollworms. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield, 202-690-0135).

May 12 2006 | India's 2006/07 rice output
Assuming a normal Southwest Monsoon, India's 2006/07 rice output is forecast at 90.0 million tons (milled basis), up 2.1 million or 2 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 44.0 million hectares, up 0.6 million or 1 percent from last year. Area and yields have plateaued in recent years. Use of high-yielding seed varieties is largely confined to the states that use irrigation. Fertilizer application at the national level is not high, but is near optimum in the top producing states. The area under hybrid rice cultivation in India is estimated to have increased from 10,000 hectares in 1995 to around 500,000 hectares in recent years, mostly in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkand, and Chattisgarh. Several hybrid seed varieties with specific consumer-preferred quality characteristics are reportedly under development, which should accelerate hybrid rice adoption by Indian farmers. Although efforts are underway to develop genetically modified varieties of rice (Golden rice), approval and commercialization of these are still years away. Some of the surplus rice growing states in the north are attempting to diversify the intensive rice/wheat rotation due to ecological concerns, but a significant shift is not imminent in the absence of a more profitable rotation. The kharif, or fall harvested rice crop contributes approximately 86 percent of the total crop, and the rabi, or summer harvested, rice crop is normally about 14 percent of the total. The top four producing states are West Bengal (16 percent), Uttar Pradesh (14 percent), Andhra Pradesh (12 percent) and Punjab (10 percent). (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 203-690-0135.)

May 12 2006 | India's 2006/07 wheat production
India's 2006/07 wheat production is estimated at 68 million tons, down 4.0 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 25.0 million hectares, down 1.3 million or 5 percent from last year. This crop was planted in November 2005 and corresponds to the USDA Marketing Year (MY) 2006/07 and the Indian MY of 2005/06. The majority of the wheat is harvested in late April through May 2006. Wheat sowing operations initially benefited from favorable soil moisture levels and cool temperatures; however, these early beneficial conditions were offset by drier conditions from December through February. This season's above-average February temperatures and heavy March rainfall reduced yield potential and affected quality. Yield is estimated near the five-year average. The wheat area estimate is based on analysis of satellite data. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as measured over the major wheat producing states of India indicates a below average area for the crop. Ministry of Agriculture harvested area estimates will be available later this season. The rain-fed areas of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra likely had the greater portion of the losses. Better conditions have prevailed in Pakistan's wheat growing regions. Pakistan's wheat crop for marketing year 2006/07 was sown just after cotton picking operations were completed in late October 2005. Production is forecast at 21.0 million tons, 0.6 million lower then last year's record production of 21.6 million. A dry spell early in the growing season and rise in temperature during February lowered the production potential. On the positive side, there were increased availability of irrigation water, good management practices, and an increased application of fertilizers and herbicides. Overall however, this year's crop is the second largest crop on record. (For more information on India and Pakistan, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Apr 10 2006 | India Rice Production Boosted by Mid-Monsoon
India's 2005/06 rice output is estimated at 87.9 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month and 2.6 million from last season's crop. The area forecast is 43.4 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.1 million from last year. The 2005/06 Kharif, or fall harvested crop, contributes approximately 86 percent to the total crop, and the Rabi, or the summer harvested crop, is normally about 14 percent of the total. A late monsoon arrival delayed sowing operations in some regions; however, a mid-monsoon season revival allowed sowing to continue later than normal for the Kharif crop. The top four producing states are West Bengal (16 percent), Uttar Pradesh (14 percent), Andhra Pradesh (12 percent), and Punjab (10 percent). Increased government rice procurement supports the higher production figure. Government procurement for 2005/06 (Oct-Sep) was 21.1 million tons through March 20, compared with 19.1 million tons in 2004/05. All major rice-producing states, except Punjab, have registered higher procurement this year. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Apr 10 2006 | Pakistan Wheat Crop at a Record High Due to Favorable Weather
Pakistan's 2005/06 wheat output is estimated at a record 21.6 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month and up 2.1 million from last season's crop. The area forecast is 8.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1 percent from last season. The wheat crop was sown during November 2004 and harvested in April 2005. USDA refers to this crop as part of the 2005/06 marketing year, while in Pakistan it is accounted for in the 2004/05. The recently released data from Pakistan's Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Livestock reveals a record production for the crop harvested in April 2005. The record yield of 2.6 tons per hectare is 4 percent higher than the previous record set in 2000/01. The higher yield is attributable to largely positive seasonal conditions, adequate irrigation water, good management practices and an increased application of fertilizers and herbicides. The province of Punjab accounts for the bulk of Pakistan's wheat production, and produces, on average, about 80 percent of the total crop. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 10 2006 | India Millet: Monsoon Rains Increase Crop Output
India's 2005/06 millet output is estimated at 10.3 million tons, up 1.3 million from last month and up 0.9 million from last season's crop. Area is estimated at 12.0 million hectares, up 2.2 million from both last month and last year. The 2005/06 millet crop, also known as bajra, is predominantly grown during the monsoon or kharif season. A late monsoon arrival delayed sowing operations in some regions; however the revival of the monsoon later in the season spurred additional sowing. The four states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Maharashtra account for nearly 80 percent of India's total production. Millet is an important food grain in some parts of India. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 10 2006 | India Corn: Monsoon Boosts Corn Production
India's 2005/06 corn output is estimated at 14.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 0.9 million from last year. Area is estimated at 7.4 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.4 million from last year. The 2005/06 kharif, fall harvested corn crop, contributes approximately 85 percent of the total crop and the rabi, summer harvested corn crop, is normally about 15 percent of the total. A late monsoon arrival delayed sowing operations in some regions; however, a mid-monsoon season revival allowed sowing to continue later than normal for the kharif crop. Higher prices and strong demand have contributed to an increase in rabi production. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 10 2006 | Foreign Corn: Smaller Crops for Major Competitors in 2005/06
Foreign corn production in 2005/06 is estimated at 401.6 million tons, similar to last month, but down by 7.5 million from last year due to reduced production from major countries/regions such as European Union (EU), Argentina, and South Africa. For 2005/06, EU output decreased by 5.3 million tons to a total of 48.2 million, due to lower area and drought-reduced yields in France--largest producer in the EU. In Argentina and South Africa, below-average crops of 15.5 million tons and 7.5 million are expected this year, 5 million and 4 million lower than last year's record crops, respectively. The drop in Argentina's crop is due to lower area and unfavorable growing conditions, while in South Africa it is due entirely to lower area. The decrease in area in South Africa is attributable to lower prices, higher stocks, and reduced credit from banks and cooperatives. For this month, increases for India and Romania were almost completely offset by smaller crops in Brazil and Mexico. Larger harvested area in India and higher yields due to better weather in both India and Romania have been major contributors to the increase in production. (For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at 202-720-7339.)

Dec 1 2005 | India Cotton Production Estimate Scaled Back
India's 2005/06 cotton production is estimated at 18.6 million bales, down 0.4 million from last month and down 0.4 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast is 8.9 million hectares, down slightly from last year. The decrease in estimated production is due to lower estimated planted area and likely yield losses due to heavy late-season rains in some growing areas. Harvested area is estimated at 8.9 million hectares based on State Government estimates. Heavy rains during October and November in central and southern India caused some damage to the standing cotton crop in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu. Although crop losses due to late rains are expected in the south, improved yield prospects in India's largest producing state of Gujarat and the main northern zone producing state of Punjab will partially offset these losses. Additional details of the rain damage should emerge in late December as arrivals from the southern areas increase. As of Dec. 3, 2005, arrivals totaled 4.0 million bales, down 2 percent from the same date last year. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Oct 1 2005 | India: Millet Production Revised Down
India's 2005/06 millet output is estimated at 9.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 0.4 million from last seasons crop. The area forecast is 9.8 million hectares, down 0.2 from last month, but unchanged from last year. The 2005/06 millet crop, also known as Bajra, is predominantly grown during the monsoon or Kharif season. A late monsoon arrival delayed sowing operations in some regions. Extended dry periods this monsoon (June 2005 to September 2005) may have reduced yield prospects. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Oct 1 2005 | India: Corn Production Revised Down
India's 2005/06 corn output is estimated at 13.5 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and down 0.1 million from last seasons crop. The area forecast is 7.2 million hectares, down 0.2 from last month, but up 0.2 million from last year. The 2005/06 Kharif, or fall harvested corn crop, accounts for approximately 85 percent of the total crop, and the Rabi, or summer harvested corn crop, is normally about 15 percent of the total. A late monsoon arrival delayed sowing operations in some regions. Yields are expected to be lower due to extended dry periods this monsoon (June 2005 to September 2005). (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Oct 1 2005 | Pakistan: Cotton Production Forecast Revised Down
Pakistan's 2005/06 cotton production is forecast at 9.5 million bales, down 0.5 million percent from last month and down 1.3 million from last year. The area forecast is 3.15 million hectares, unchanged from last month. Above-average rainfall received in key growing regions in the Punjab during late September has resulted in reduced output. Field reports indicated crop condition was satisfactory to very good prior to September. The subsequent wetter-than-normal conditions during harvest was compounded by a lack of quality pesticide availability resulted in a pest-vulnerable crop. This season a pest infestation has reduced cotton yield. The full extent of damage will become more apparent as Pakistan gin arrival data, published every 15 days during harvest, is published. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Sep 1 2005 | India: Cotton Production Increased
India's 2005/06 cotton production is forecast at 18.4 million bales, up 1.4 million from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. The area forecast is 9.1 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month, but up 0.1 million from last year. Indian cotton area is expected to increase this season in response to last years success experienced by cotton farmers in several states. The northern zone states of Punjab, Haryana , and Rajasthan were the first to complete their sowing operations, which typically conclude at the end of May. In the rainfed central zone cotton states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, sowing began 7 - 14 days later than normal in some areas due to the delayed monsoon arrival; however, sowing operations were completed by the third week of August. Cotton planting for 2005/06 will be completed in India after sowing operations are finalized in the southern producing states of Andrah Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Yield prospects are positive due to favorable weather and low pest incidence in the major cotton growing areas. India is expected to produce a bumper cotton crop for the third consecutive year. The adoption of improved varieties and, particularly, Bt cotton will be the significant factor for this seasons large production. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Aug 1 2005 | India: Rice Production Forecast Lower on Monsoon Delay
The USDA estimates India rice production for 2005/06 at 84.5 million tons on a milled basis, down 5.5 million tons from last month and down 0.8 million tons from last year. Likewise, harvested area is forecast lower at 42 million hectares, down 2.5 million hectares from last month and 0.3 million from last year. According to preliminary data from the Government of Indias Ministry of Agriculture, sowing progress has lagged behind last season and as of early August, remains lower than the 2004/05 crop during the same period last year. Currently 19.7 million hectares are sown. Compared to previous seasons, this implies final kharif area in the range of 37 to 39 million hectares. Assuming an average yield and a normal size rabi crop, then total production will be 84.5 million milled tons. The area reduction this season is due to the pace of sowing being hampered by the delayed monsoon in several rice growing states. However, in recent weeks, rainfall has significantly increased and the rate of sowing has increased but remains below last season. Kharif rice production accounts for approximately 87 percent of Indias total rice crop and is largely dependent on monsoon rainfall. The rabi rice crop planted in November accounts for the remaining 13 percent and is mostly irrigated. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135)

Jul 1 2005 | India: Cotton Production Increases With New Varieties and Favorable Rains
India's 2005/06 cotton production is forecast at 16.75 million bales, up 1.25 million from last month, but down 1.85 million from last year. The area forecast is 9.25 million hectares, up 0.5 million from last month and up 0.25 million from last year. India cotton area is expected to increase this season in response to last year's success experienced by cotton farmers in several states. The northern zone states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan have nearly completed their sowing operations. Reports from trade and state agricultural departments estimate the area in the mostly irrigated northern zone has increased by 8 to 10 percent. In the rain-fed central zone cotton states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh sowing began 7 to 14 days later than normal in some areas due to the delayed monsoon arrival. Unusually heavy rainfall during the last week of June will necessitate replanting in some areas of Gujarat. Overall, since the third week of June the monsoon's resurgence has brought significant rainfall amounts to most growing regions, and sowing operations have accelerated. The adoption of improved varieties and particularly Bt cotton will continue to rise this season. The official estimates of area sown to Bt in 2004/05 are believed to be underestimated. It was apparent from farmer surveys, and meetings between agricultural officials conducted by analysts of the Foreign Agricultural Service in March 2005, that farmers will aggressively shift more acreage to Bt cotton. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jul 1 2005 | India: 2005/06 Wheat Production Is Forecast Lower
The 2005/06 India wheat production is forecast at 72 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month and down 0.06 million from last year. The area forecast is 26.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.3 million from last year. The downward revision is based on the latest available reports from several producing states and the trend in government wheat procurement. Wheat procurement is generally correlated with production. With the procurement season already over, the government has procured only 14.8 million tons of wheat, the lowest level in six years, compared with 16.8 million in 2004. There has been a significant decline in wheat procurement in most states, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Aug 1 1997 | INDIA: COTTON CROP PROGRESSING WELL
India's 1997/98 cotton crop is forecast at 12.5 million bales, 5 percent lower than the record crop of 13.1 million produced in 1996/97, but 0.5 million higher than last month's estimate. Area is forecast at 9.0 million hectares, virtually unchanged from last season's record level and slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 8.8 million hectares. The monsoon arrived two weeks later than normal this year, generating concerns of widespread dryness for many areas. Since that time, the rains have progressed but have not been consistent in all areas. The return of monsoon rains in late July led to resumption of planting in the previously moisture stressed areas of Maharastra and Karnataka. Recent crop surveys, in the State of Maharastra suggest that planting this year may surpass the previous state record cotton area by as much as 4 percent. This has offset a reported decline in area planted in Punjab. By late July all the major cotton-growing areas, except for coastal Andra Pradesh. Had received sufficient rains. The national picture will become clearer in the next couple of weeks when planting in the central and southern states is completed.

Sep 1 1997 | INDIA: COTTON CROP PROGRESSING WELL
India's 1997/98 cotton crop is forecast at 12.8 million bales, 5 percent lower than the record crop of 13.5 million produced in 1996/97, but 0.3 million higher than last month's estimate. Area is forecast at 9.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but 2 percent less than last year's record of 9.2 million. The forecast yield is 3 percent lower than last year's record of 321 kilograms per hectare, but 2 percent higher than the five year average. This year's monsoon arrived two weeks later than normal, generating concerns of dryness for some crop areas. Since that time, the rains have proved adequate and barring early withdrawl, the 1997 monsoon is expected to be declared normal. Monsoon rains have been beneficial for proper plant growth and have encouraged additional late-season planting activity in the central and southern states. The last areas planted are small pockets in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, which are typically sown during August and September. India's cotton crop continues to progress well under favorable weather across all major cotton growing areas. There are no reports of any major insect attacks except for some minor incidence of heliothis (boll worm) and white fly in the northern region.

Sep 1 1997 | PAKISTAN: COTTON CROP PROGRESSING WELL
Pakistan's 1997/98 cotton crop is forecast at 8.0 million bales, up 0.3 million from last month's estimate and 10 percent greater than last year's crop. Record production occurred in 1991/92 with 10.0 million bales. Area is forecast at 3.2 million hectares, unchanged from last year. Yield is forecast substantially higher than last year's insect reduced crop, leading to an estimated harvest of 8.0 million bales. This year's forecast yield of 544 kilograms per hectare is slightly above the five year average of 526 kilograms. Weather, water availability, and low insect pressure have been favorable for crop development and fruit formation compared to last year. Irrigation water has generally been adequate. The availability of tube-well water compensated for the shortages in some pockets of Punjab caused by a canal breach. Widespread and well-spaced monsoon rains from mid-July through August supplemented water requirements. Recent floods initially generated stories of extensive damage; however, recent assessments indicate damage to be minor and isolated along river flood plains. Earlier rainfall and the widespread monsoon across the cotton growing areas reduced white fly populations, especially compared to 1996/97 crop. Farmers are successfully using specific pesticides to control white fly and heliothis (boll worm) attacks. Despite the flood losses, crop conditions are significantly better than last year.

Oct 1 1997 | INDIA: RICE CROP AT RECORD LEVEL, SORGHUM OUTPUT LOWER
Indian rice production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 81.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month and 1.0 million larger than last year's crop. Total kharif season (fall and early winter harvest) rice production is estimated to exceed last year's production, while the rabi (winter) rice output is forecast at a near-normal level of 8.5 million tons. Area is estimated at 42.2 million hectares, a decrease of 0.6 million from last month. The area reduction is due in part to heavy rains and flooding. Production is increased as a result of good rainfall distribution in several key states, with the exception of Andhra Pradesh where production is expected to decrease due to weak monsoonal activity in southern growing areas. September rainfall was well distributed in the larger rice growing states of Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal, Punjab, and Haryana. India's 1997/98 sorghum forecast is revised to 9.0 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month and 14 percent lower than last year. Area is estimated at 11.2 million hectares, down 0.5 million from last year. The production decrease is a result of a lower planted area and reduced yields due to dry conditions. Growing conditions declined in September due to an erratic distribution of rainfall in the major sorghum-growing regions of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka.

Oct 1 1997 | INDIA: SOYBEAN RECORD CROP LIKELY
India's 1997/98 soybean crop is forecast at 5.0 million metric tons, 12 percent higher than the record 4.48 million tons produced in 1995/96. This is an increase of 0.5 million tons from last month's forecast. Area is forecast at a record 5.5 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month and 0.5 million hectare increase over the record area of 1996/97. Higher soybean prices last year resulted in a further expansion of soybean area in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. Planting operations were completed on time under mostly good conditions. The 1997 monsoon performed well in nearly all the major soybean-growing regions. An increase in soybean yield is expected as the result of excellent growing conditions. The rainfall was well distributed, except for Maharastra, and the crop received timely rains during critical growth stages and pod development. In Maharashtra, below-normal rainfall in soybean-growing areas is likely to reduce yield, which will be more than offset by increased area. There are no reports of widespread disease or pest problems. The soybean harvest has begun in some areas, the peak harvest season will occur at the end of October.

Oct 1 1997 | INDIA: COTTON PRODUCTION FIGURES REVISED TO INCLUDE LOOSE COTTON
The production estimates for 1995/96-1997/98 have been revised to reflect the new policy of including loose cotton in USDA estimates. The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) of India recently decided to include 500,000 Indian bales, or about 400,000 U.S. bales, of loose cotton in the annual production estimates beginning in 1995/96. The USDA has revised its estimates accordingly. Cotton production estimate for 1997/98 has been revised to 13.1 million bales to account for the additional loose cotton. The new component in the CAB's cotton production estimate, consists of cotton that is not pressed into bales. The CAB and other agencies involved in the cotton production estimate formerly considered only pressed and baled cotton. Loose cotton consumption is mostly confined to small scale open-end spindle units, handloom units and for non-spinning purposes, including the production of mattresses, quilts and pillows. The East India Cotton Association (EICA) had initiated a study to estimate the use of loose cotton by various segments of the industry. The study was prompted by concerns in the industry that production was being under estimated. The final report of the survey is not yet available, but preliminary results indicate loose cotton production of 500,000-700,000 Indian bales, or approximately 400,000-550,000 U.S. bales. Until EICA releases further results, USDA will use the lower estimate of 400,000 bales in its production estimates.

Nov 1 1997 | PAKISTAN: COTTON CROP SUFFERS STORM DAMAGE
Pakistan's 1997/98 cotton crop is forecast at 7.7 million bales, down 4 percent or 0.3 million bales from last month, but up 5 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 3.2 million hectares, unchanged from last year. Yield is forecast at 524 kilograms per hectare, only slightly below the 5-year average of 526 kilograms. This month's reduction in forecast yield resulted from severe rain storms which occurred in late October in northern Punjab. The recent heavy rains and floods have generated stories of extensive damage; however, recent assessments indicate only limited damage. Despite some losses, crop conditions are significantly better than last year.

Mar 1 1998 | INDIA: RICE PRODUCTION FORECAST AT A RECORD
Rice production in India for 1997/98 is estimated at 82.0 million tons (milled basis), 0.5 million higher than last month and 1 percent higher than the record crop of 81.2 million produced in 1996/97. Area is forecast at 42.2 million hectares unchanged from last month, but 1 percent less than the record area of 42.7 million hectares in 1996/97. Yield is forecast at a record 2.92 tons per hectare. Production reached record levels in the major surplus rice producing states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, however some qualitative losses occurred due to heavy rains at harvest time. Also, higher production is reported in the larger non-irrigated rice growing states of Orissa, Bihar and West Bengal due to well-distributed kharif-season rains. In Andhra Pradesh, early-season drought and untimely heavy rains at harvest time constrained yield potential.

Mar 1 1998 | INDIA: COTTON PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED DUE TO RAIN DAMAGE
The 1997/98 Indian cotton crop is forecasts at 11.7 million bales, 15 percent lower than the record crop of 13.8 million produced in 1996/97, and 1.1 million lower than last month's estimate. Area is forecast at 9.0 million hectares unchanged from last month, but 2 percent less than last year's record of 9.2 million. The forecasted yield is 14 percent lower than last year's record of 330 kilograms per hectare, and 8 percent less than the five-year average. This year's cotton crop had beneficial growing conditions during the first part of the season. However, during the second half of the season, untimely rains and pest attacks caused extensive damage in major cotton growing states. A recent assessment of the 1997/98 cotton crop by the Cotton Advisory Board of India revealed higher losses than previously estimated. Unusually heavy rains in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and late-season rains in Punjab and Haryana accompanied by pest attacks were cited for the production decreases. In addition, the above average precipitation precludes additional late-season harvesting. In previous seasons, 1995/96 and 1996/97, dry weather and sunny conditions were conducive to additional pickings, thereby increasing yields.

Oct 1 1998 | INDIA: COARSE GRAIN AND RICE PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
India's 1998/99 corn and millet production is estimated to fall below last year's level due to floods in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and the erratic distribution of rainfall in Rajasthan. Millet production is estimated at 9.7 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month and down 21 percent from the record crop of 12.3 million tons produced in 1992/93. Area is unchanged from last month, while yield is lowered to 0.73 tons per hectare -- nearly equal to the 5-year average. Corn production is estimated at 9.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month and down 11 percent from the record crop of 10.6 million tons produced in 1996/97. Area is estimated at 6.1 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month. Corn yield is estimated at 1.56 tons per hectare, down slightly from last month and near the 5-year average. The 1998/99 rice crop is estimated at 81.5 million tons (milled basis), down 1.5 million from last month and 2 percent lower than the record crop of 83.5 million produced in 1997/98. Area is forecast at 42.3 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month. Yield is estimated at 2.89 tons per hectare or slightly above the 5-year average. The decrease in output is based on a government report citing damage to the kharif crop in several important regions. The reduction stems from adverse weather, including drought in parts of Central and West India, floods in the Gangetic Plain, and harvest rains in the surplus producing states of Punjab and Haryana, where quality is likely to suffer. The outlook for most southern states, especially Andhra Pradesh, remains excellent.

Dec 1 1999 | INDIA: RICE PRODUCTION DOWN DUE TO EXCESS RAIN
For India, the 1998/99 rice output is estimated at 81.0 million tons (milled basis) down 0.5 million tons from last month and 1 percent below the revised estimate of last year's crop. Area is revised higher to 42.7 million hectares from 42.3 million. Heavy, late-season and post-monsoon rains coinciding with the harvesting and marketing of rice in Punjab and Haryana have reportedly caused significant losses and aggravated quality problems, according to the U.S. agriculture attache in New Delhi. Andhra Pradesh, the major rice growing state in south India also experienced heavy rains and flooding in mid-October, tempering rice production prospects. In addition, based on data received from various state governments, the Ministry of Agriculture has revised its 1997/98 rice production estimate downward to 82.1 million tons, (71.9 million during the kharif (fall harvested) season and 10.2 during the rabi (spring harvested season) from its earlier estimate of 83.5 million. Area increased from 42.2 million hectares to 43.1 million.

Apr 1 1999 | PAKISTAN: COTTON GIN ARRIVALS INDICATE LOWER OUTPUT
Cotton production for 1998/99 is estimated at 6.5 million bales, down 0.4 million bales from last month. Cotton gin arrival data reveals a 13 percent lag behind last season's arrivals for the same March through April period. This suggests late-season production losses were greater than expected, though under reporting by gin operators has contributed to the reduction in arrivals. The 1998/99 estimate is 0.7 million bales less than last year and is the lowest production since 1994/95 of 6.3 million bales when the crop was reduced by leaf curl virus and white fly. USDA reduced its initial production estimate of 7.5 million bales over the past three months by a total of 1.0 million bales as reports confirm continued yield losses because of crop disease and insect problems.

Jan 1 2000 | PAKISTAN: COTTON PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RISES
Pakistans cotton production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 8.0 million bales, up 0.2 million from last month and up 1.7 million from last years weather and insect reduced crop. The increase is based largely on early arrival data, good growing weather and the absence of major pest problems. Through January 1, 2000; cotton arrivals at gins were reported 34% above last years arrivals. The faster pace is due to the early maturation of the crop, a shift to early season varieties, and hot temperatures earlier in season. Observers expect a marginal third picking, due to less fertilizer use and early onset of wheat planting this season. Weather through the beginning of January has been favorable for cotton harvesting.

Feb 1 2000 | India: GOI Revises Wheat Area and Production Figures
Wheat production forecasts were reassessed based on recently released data from the Government of India (GOI). The government recently lowered 1999/2000 wheat production to 70.8 million tons from the earlier estimate of 71.0 million. The 1998/99 wheat production was revised to 66.35 million from the earlier 65.90. Harvesting of the 1999/2000 crop was completed in April 1999. Northern India enjoyed below normal temperatures and plentiful sunshine during February-March 1999, beneficial for grain development. Water (rainfall and irrigation) was adequate during critical growth stages, and despite some temporary shortages of phosphatic fertilizer, applications were higher than a year ago. The only significant problem was weeds (mainly phalaris minor), which also enjoyed optimal growing conditions and proved difficult of control. Hot, dry weather at harvest minimized losses, leaving grain in good condition for storage.

Mar 1 2000 | Pakistan: Record Rice Harvest Projected
The 1999/2000 Pakistan rice crop is estimated at a record 5.1 million tons (milled basis), up 0.3 million from last month and up 9 percent from last season. Harvested area is currently estimated at 2.5 million hectares, up 50,000 hectares from last month. The weather during much of the growing season provided better than expected growing conditions. Pakistan sources expect relative farm returns for rice production will remain attractive and therefore area loss to sugarcane will be minimal. Stability among rice varieties is expected to remain with 52 percent of Pakistans rice area is estimated be Basmati, and the remainder being non-fragrant (IRRI and other local varieties).

Apr 1 2000 | India: Rice Production Rises to Record Level
Indias 1999/2000 rice crop is estimated at a record 86.5 million tons (milled basis), 1 percent higher than the previous high of 86.0 million tons produced last season. Area is forecast at 44.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and near the record 1998/99 area of 44.6 million. The forecast yield of 2.92 tons per hectare is also a record. This increase is a result of record production in major rice producing states, and improved production outlook for the spring/summer harvested paddy. The increase more than offset the rice crop loss from cyclone 05B in Orissa.

May 1 2000 | India: Rapeseed Production Decreases Due to Drought
Indian rapeseed production for 1999/2000 is forecast to be 5.3 million tons. While this is a reduction of 0.4 million tons from last months forecast, it remains 0.4 million increase over last years production of 4.9 million. The 1999/2000 harvested area is estimated at 6.4 million hectares, down 0.3 million hectares from the five-year average of 6.7 million. Reduced production is a result of persistent dry conditions in the main rapeseed regions during the October-April growing season. The states of Gujarat and Rajasthan typically account for 52% of rapeseed production and have experienced dry conditions since last fall. Despite being heavily irrigated (Gujarat 98 percent and Rajasthan 73 percent), the weak 1998/99 monsoon resulted in low irrigation supplies. Coupled with low winter rainfall, the ensuing drought conditions in the western and central growing regions have lowered both rainfed and irrigated rapeseed yield potential.

May 1 2000 | India: Wheat Area Reduced, Slows Production Growth
India wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 70.0 million tons, down 0.8 million from last seasons record 70.8 million. Area is estimated at 26.5 million hectares, down 0.9 million from last years record 27.4 million due to dry conditions at planting in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Indias 2000/01 winter grain season has been characterized by generally good conditions, with precipitation levels generally more favorable than last year and cooler-than-average temperatures in the main producing areas. Satellite derived vegetation indexes indicate a delayed crop compared to last season as result of the cooler weather. The majority of Indias wheat planting took place during the optimal planting period (mid-October to mid-December). About 80 percent of India's wheat crop receives some irrigation, with irrigation facilities concentrated in the larger producing states. Favorable conditions in the major grain belt (irrigated), partially offset the drier conditions that have prevailed in the rain-dependent marginal growing areas of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh.

May 1 2000 | Pakistan: Wheat at Record Area, But Dry Conditions Tempers Yield
Pakistan wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 18.0 million metric tons, down 0.7 million from last seasons record 18.7 million. Area is estimated at a record 8.5 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last season. Area planted has increased given the Government of Pakistan's 25 percent boost in wheat procurement price for this growing season to Rs. 7,500 (about $145) per metric ton. Close to 80 percent of Pakistans wheat is irrigated; however, prospects for a strong harvest have dimmed during the season as dry conditions persisted. Rainfall in the growing region was below normal from January to the end of March, and cool temperatures resulted in less runoff from mountain snow pack melt, reducing irrigation supplies during the critical crop pollination stage (February through mid-March). While preliminary information indicates that yield will be average to slightly below average, total production prospects are balanced by an increase in area. Harvest in Sindh began in mid-March. Punjab harvest typically begins during April, but this season's cooler temperatures may cause minor delays.

Jun 1 2000 | Pakistan: Cotton Crop Estimated Higher
Pakistans 1999/2000 cotton crop is estimated at 8.4 million bales, up 0.2 million from last month and up 2.1 million or 33 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.1 million or 3 percent from last year. Despite dryer than normal conditions in cotton areas during the monsoon season, higher than expected gin arrivals have been reported. A comparison of the final production number versus arrival figures since the general sales tax was applied to cotton lint sales in 1995/96 reveals an increasing amount of unreported cotton (final minus arrival). Assuming a percentage similar to the two previous seasons unreported sales and applying this percentage (10.5%) to the latest arrival data results in the current production figure.

Jun 1 2000 | India: Wheat Benefits from Favorable Growing and Harvest Conditions
Indian wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at a record 71.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Area is estimated at 26.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month. An expected decline in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to drought is being offset by higher production in other states. Wheat fields across northern and most of central India experienced favorably cool weather and abundant sunshine during much of February and March; moreover, rainfall and the availability of irrigation were adequate during critical growth stages. The vast majority of wheat production in India occurs under irrigation. April harvesting conditions were ideal with temperatures hovering above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain or hail.

Jun 1 2000 | Pakistan: Wheat Estimated Higher
Pakistan wheat production for 2000/01 is estimated at 20.0 million metric tons, up 2.0 million from last month and 1.3 million from the previous record set in 1997/98. Area is estimated at 8.6 million hectares, an increase of 0.1 million from last month and 0.2 million above the previous record set in 1995/96. Yield is estimated at 2.33 tons per hectare, 10 percent higher than last month's estimate. Exceptionally high wheat yields were a result of a number of factors, including more timely planting, higher seeding rates, increased input usage, and nearly ideal weather. Over 80 percent of Pakistans wheat is irrigated.

Jul 1 2000 | Pakistan: Wheat Production Up, Despite Widespread Drought Conditions
The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock has revised Pakistans MY 2000/01 wheat production forecast to 21 million tons, based on better-than-expected yields in the major wheat-growing areas of the Punjab. Initially, the forecast had been lower due to erratic irrigation supplies in the Sindh, but this occurred mostly at the end of the growing season and the effect on yields was minimal. The Punjab region received adequate irrigation supplies and temperatures remained mild throughout the growing season. Farmers in the Punjab reported record yield increases of 20 percent and higher above last years levels as a resulting from a number of factors, including timely planting, higher seeding rates, increased input usage and nearly ideal weather. Harvesting conditions were nearly ideal through May with temperatures near 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain.

Jul 1 2000 | India: Record Wheat Harvest Despite Severe Drought in Western And Central Areas
The Government of India revised the production estimate for the 2000/01 wheat crop to a new record of 74 million tons. An expected decline in drought affected Gujarat and Rajasthan was reportedly offset by higher production in the other producing states. Wheat regions across northern and most of central India experienced favorably cool weather and abundant sunshine during much of February and March resulting in higher yields. Rainfall and the availability of irrigation were adequate during critical growth stages in most of the irrigated areas. Harvesting conditions were ideal through May with temperatures hovering above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and no rain. There were relatively few reports of lodging this season and Ministry of Agriculture reported test weights higher than a year ago.

Sep 1 2000 | Pakistan: Rice Estimated Lower on Reduced Irrigation Supplies
Pakistans 2000/01 rice crop is estimated at 4.3 million tons milled basis, down 0.6 million from last month and down 0.9 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.25 million hectares, down 0.15 million from last month and down 0.27 million from last year. Rice area was reduced in the Sindh, as farmers planted less rice this season due to low irrigation supplies at the start of the season, and as they shifted to more sugarcane because relative prices favored sugarcane over rice. Yield is also forecast to decline slightly due to a delayed start of the planting season.

Sep 1 2000 | Pakistan: Cotton Estimated Higher on Increased Area
Pakistans 2000/01 cotton crop is estimated at 7.7 million bales, up 0.4 million from last month, but down 0.7 million or 8 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.95 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last month and unchanged from last year. Despite dryer than normal conditions in the cotton areas, the vast majority of the irrigated areas have received sufficient irrigation supplies thus far this season. Harvesting in the Sindh is well underway, while the peak harvesting period in the Punjab will begin in mid-September.

Oct 1 2000 | Pakistan: Cotton Output Rises on Yield Increase
Cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 8.3 million bales, up 0.6 million from last month, but down 0.3 million from last years revised crop of 8.6 million bales (from 8.4 million). The harvested area of 3.0 million hectares is up slightly from last month and last year. The estimated yield of 605 Kg/Ha is higher than last month and much higher than the 5-year average, but lower than last year. Despite drier than normal conditions in the cotton areas, irrigation supplies were adequate this season. Favorable rainfall and lower temperatures at planting time, increased sowing of early-maturing varieties, and limited insect damage boosted yield prospects. The U.S. Agricultural Attaché in Pakistan reported that yields in the Punjab may be marginally higher than last year. This region accounts for about 80 percent of the crop. Yields were estimated to be about 25 percent lower in Sindh due to late planting and irrigation problems. Recent crop travel by FAS personnel through the Punjab area indicated that the cotton crop is in good to excellent condition, with potential yields close to last years 620 Kg/Ha.

Dec 1 2000 | India: Rapeseed Production Forecast Down on Prices and Crop Condition
India 2000/01 rapeseed output is estimated at 4.4 million tons, down 0.9 million or 17 percent from last month and down 1.1 million or 20 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised from 6.2 to 5.5 million hectares, down 0.7 million or 11 percent from last month and 0.9 million tons or 14 percent from last year. There has been a shift to wheat planting in irrigated areas as a result of relatively better expected prices. Additionally, drought in western India will result in reduced plantings of rapeseed in dryland areas and water availability problems for irrigated fields. The sown area in Rajasthan will be lower than last season where area has been shifted to low-rainfall tolerant crops including millet and sorghum. Planting of rapeseed will also be reduced in the drought stricken Saurashtra region of Gujarat. The rapeseed producing states of Madhya Pradesh and Haryana are also experiencing low soil moisture levels and water availability problems.

Dec 1 2000 | India: 2000/01 Cotton Production Forecast Decreased
Cotton production for 2000/01 is estimated at 11.9 million bales, down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised from 8.9 to 8.4 million hectares, down 0.5 million or 6 percent and down 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. The cotton estimate has been reduced due to continued adverse weather conditions in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, where high temperatures and low soil moisture reserves have limited the number of pickings. The harvest in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan was quite favorable, with the harvest being completed on schedule under optimum weather conditions. Harvest operations are underway in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Market arrivals through November 25 are estimated at 3.21 million bales, compared with 2.66 million for the same period last year.

Feb 1 2001 | India: 2000/01 Cotton Production Forecast Decreased
The 2000/01 cotton crop is estimated at 11.5 million bales, down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last month and down 0.7 million or 6 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised down from 8.4 to 8.3 million hectares. The lower 2000/01 cotton estimate is due to adverse weather conditions in the growing regions of western India. High temperatures and low soil moisture reserves precluded additional pickings in the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The light rains received during late December and early January were insufficient to improve the prospects for additional pickings. The slowdown in arrivals in drought-affected western states indicate a lower crop than earlier estimated. Furthermore, quality problems have been reported in the western cotton regions concerning fiber strength. Market sources expect arrivals from the central region to taper off by late March compared to the more-normal period of April/May.

Mar 1 2001 | India: Dry Conditions Reduce Rapeseed Production Forecast
The 2000/01 Indian rapeseed output is forecast at 4.2 million tons, down 0.2 million or 5 percent from last month and down 0.9 million or 18 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised from 5.4 to 5.1 million hectares, down 0.3 million or 6 percent from last month and 0.5 million or 10 percent from last year. Dry conditions during the planting window reduced the sown area in Gujarat and Rajasthan. This led to a partial shift to low-rainfall tolerant crops including millet and sorghum. Yields are anticipated to be lower this season, because of decreased seasonal rainfall, and reduced irrigation supplies in some areas.

Mar 1 2001 | India: 2000/01 Rice Forecast Falls Due to Poor Rabi Planting Conditions
The 2000/01 rice crop is forecast at 87.0 million tons, down 1.5 million or 2 percent from last month. The area forecast is unchanged at 44.6 million hectares. The Indian rice crop consists of two harvests from different seasons: the kharif and rabi. The current estimate of 87 million tons represents the two component estimates of 75 million tons previously harvested during the kharif season and 12 million from the rabi to be harvested in the early summer months. The rabi crop is expected to be reduced as planting conditions were unfavorable due to reduced water availability as water in reservoirs and storage tanks were low.

Apr 1 2001 | India: Cotton Area and Production Revised Downward
Indias 2000/01 cotton crop is estimated at 11.3 million bales, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month and down 7 percent from last year. Estimated area was reduced by 2 percent this month to 8.1 million hectares based on official area data from Indias Ministry of Agriculture. Estimated yield is 304 kilograms per hectare, up from 302 last month. The 7-percent year-to-year drop in production for 2000/01 is supported by updated market arrival data. After a strong start, arrivals have slowed sharply since January, particularly in the drought-affected states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. Arrivals have also slowed in the northern states, indicating a lower crop. However, arrivals have been strong in the southern states and are likely to continue for some months.

May 1 2001 | India: Rapeseed Production Forecast Decreased
Output or rapeseed in India in 2000/01 is estimated at 3.7 million tons, down 0.5 million or 12 percent from last month and down 1.4 million or 28 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised from 5.1 to 5.0 million hectares, down 0.1 million or 2 percent from last month and 0.6 million or 11 percent from last year. Farmers in the western growing states faced unfavorably dry planting conditions after the relatively weak June to September 2000 monsoon. Coupled with very low winter rainfall amounts, this resulted in a reduced sown area and lower yields. The mustard-rapeseed producing states which are affected are Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and the major producing state of Rajasthan. Rajasthani farmers have shifted to drought tolerant crops including millet and sorghum. There has also been a shift to wheat planting in areas of assured irrigation, resulting from relatively better price expectations.

May 1 2001 | India: Wheat Production Declines with Area
Indias wheat output for 2001/02 is forecast at 68.0 million tons, down 7.8 million or 10 percent from last seasons record crop of 75.8 million. Area is estimated at 25.0 million hectares, down 2.4 million, or 9 percent from last season. The production decline is largely a result of reduced plantings in the western drought-affected states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, and in Madhya Pradesh. Low soil moisture levels and inadequate irrigation water resulted in a sown area decline. These losses were partially offset by higher production in eastern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. In the major producing zone of Haryana and Punjab, the growing season endured unfavorably high temperatures briefly during early March and a week of rainy conditions at harvest in mid-to-late April. However, these events are estimated to have had only a minor impact on an otherwise favorable season in this intensely irrigated region of India.

Jun 1 2001 | India: Cotton Production Forecast Decreased
The 2000/01 cotton crop in India is estimated at 10.9 million bales, down 0.4 million or 4 percent from last month and down 1.3 million or 11 percent from last year. Estimated area is revised up slightly to 8.12 million hectares, based on figures released by the Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture. Adverse growing conditions in the western Indian states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra reduced the total output. Rains received during the winter and early spring were insufficient to improve the prospects of the drought-affected area, eliminating the second and third pickings that benefitted the 1999/2000 harvest. Conditions in other cotton producing areas were generally favorable.

Jul 1 2001 | India: Break in Monsoon Slows Kharif Peanut Crop
Indias 2001/02 total peanut production is forecast at 7.8 million tons, up 37 percent form last years crop. Harvested area is forecast at 8.2 million hectares, up 1 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 0.95 tons per hectare, up 36 percent from last year. After a timely arrival in June, the southwest monsoon rains have become somewhat erratic over Gujarat, northern Karnataka, interior Maharashtra, and coastal Andhra Pradesh, stressing crops. The states of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu together account for about 90 percent of Indias peanut production. Two crops of peanut are cultivated. The main (Kharif) peanut crop is planted during Mid-May to July and harvested during September to December. The secondary (Rabi) crop is planted during Mid-September to November, and harvested during March-April.

Jul 1 2001 | Pakistan: Wheat Output Estimated Higher
Pakistans 2001/02 wheat harvest is estimated at 19.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. Area is estimated at 8.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month. Production of 19.0 million tons is the second largest wheat crop produced in Pakistan, exceeded only by the 2000/01 harvest of 21.1 million tons. Higher wheat yields in the last two seasons are a result of more timely planting, higher seeding rates, increased input usage, and nearly ideal weather. Over 80 percent of Pakistan's wheat is irrigated.

Aug 1 2001 | India: 2001/02 Cotton Production Forecast to Increase
The 2001/02 cotton crop is estimated at 12.5 million bales, up 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month and up 1.6 million or 15 percent from last year. The 2001 monsoon season has brought timely and well-distributed rains in most cotton growing regions. Late-May and June rainfall provided good seeding conditions, which fostered a 7 percent year-to-year jump in area to 8.66 million hectares. Area increases occurred in the mostly rainfed central states of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. In the northern zone the relatively better returns from cotton compared with competing crops resulted in a shift to cotton in Punjab and Haryana. The timely onset of monsoon rains in the second week of June added to the low irrigation supplies in Rajasthan. Some areas in the rainfed southern zone received below normal June precipitation which delayed sowing operations; however, August rains in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka may encourage late-season planting. The small crop in Tamil Nadu is progressing well with adequate moisture. Pest pressure is reported to be light in all regions.

Sep 1 2001 | India: Rice Forecast Rises Slightly
The 2001/02 rice crop is forecast at 88.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1 percent from last month and up 1.7 million or 2 percent from last year. Forecast area is unchanged at 44.5 million hectares, but down 0.1 million from last year. Of the total production estimate, 76 million tons comes from the already-harvested kharif season, and 12 million is expected to be harvested during the summer season. In the major producing states of Punjab and Haryana, conditions are excellent in this mostly irrigated region. Prospects are satisfactory in the two largest summer rice growing states, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. Localized flooding in areas of Orissa and Bihar is not expected to significantly reduce output. However, the continuation of monsoonal rains during September and early October are essential for longer season varieties grown in Bihar, West Bengal, and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

Nov 1 2001 | India: Cotton Production Forecast Decreases
The 2001/02 cotton crop is estimated at 12.2 million bales, down 0.3 million or 2 percent from last month, but up 1.3 million or 12 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 8.74 million hectares, up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last month and up 0.6 million or 8 percent from last year. Lower production is anticipated in the northern cotton producing states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. The reductions are a result of pest damage brought on by a combination of factors including early planting, high humidity, and cloud cover. Early sown cotton from the north and central areas have begun arriving in the market at a slower pace due to boll weevil and white fly problems in the north, and rain delays in the central states. Overall, the 2001 monsoon season brought timely and well-distributed rain to most cotton growing regions. The crop in central producing states of Maharastra and Madhya Pradesh is reported as excellent due to increased rainfall in late August and early September. The southern producing state of Andrah Pradesh had localized flooding due to heavy rains in mid-October, but crop damage was negligible. It is likely that this rain further improved opportunities for additional late pickings. The other southern states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have received sufficient rains and the crop condition is good.

Nov 1 2001 | India: Rice Forecast Increased
The 2001/02 rice crop is forecast at 89.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 1 percent from last month and up 2.7 million or 3 percent from last year. The area forecast is 44.7 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 4 percent from last month, but down 0.1 million from last year. Output in the major surplus-producing states of Punjab and Haryana is forecast down slightly from last year due to a decline in planted area. Prospects in the other major rice growing states are positive. The current total forecast is made up of 76.4 million for the current kharif season and 12.6 million tons for the upcoming rabi season. The rabi crop is mostly irrigated and is grown in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.

Nov 1 2001 | India: Sorghum Production Forecast Falls
The 2001/02 sorghum output is forecast at 7.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 22 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 6 percent from last year. Estimated area is 9.7 million hectares, down 0.6 million or 6 percent from last month and down 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. Kharif sorghum typically provides the bulk of Indias sorghum crop with the rabi season producing a smaller share. This season kharif sorghum is estimated lower, production for June through September was 16 percent lower than for the same period last year.

Dec 1 2001 | India: Cotton Forecast Decreased
The 2001/02 cotton crop is forecast at 11.8 million bales, down 0.4 million or 3 percent from last month, but up 0.9 million or 8 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 8.7 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.6 million or 8 percent from last year. The production estimate has been lowered to 11.8 million bales due to heavy pest damage in Haryana and Gujarat. Above-normal temperatures and a lack of ground moisture are also cited as reasons for the decline in the central states of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. The southern crop grown in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu is progressing well. Light December rains could improve prospects for late picking in the rainfed cotton areas of central and southern India.

Dec 1 2001 | Pakistan: Cotton Forecast Declines
The 2001/02 cotton crop is estimated at 8.0 million bales, down 0.3 million or 4 percent from last month and down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.1 million hectares, down slightly from last month, but up 0.2 million hectares or 7 percent from last year. Pakistan cotton production will be reduced this season due to late season pest attacks. Pressure from bollworms in central and eastern Punjab between mid-September and mid-October will result in yield declines resulting in lower production than earlier estimated.

Dec 1 2001 | Pakistan: Rice Output Forecast to Fall
The 2001/02 rice crop is estimated at 4.1 million tons on a milled basis. This is down 0.4 million tons from last month and down 0.6 million or 13 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.0 million hectares, down 0.25 million or 11 percent from last month and down 0.35 million hectares or 15 percent from last year. The decline in production is mostly a result of water availability problems at planting time. Early-season irrigation problems and better returns from competing crops, primary cotton, reduced the Punjab planted area this season. Farmers in the Sindh are reported to have also planted less rice due to the lack of early-season irrigation supplies and prospects of better returns from sugarcane.

Dec 1 2001 | India: Corn Output Estimate to Fall
The 2001/02 corn crop is forecast at 11.3 million tons, down 0.7 million or 6 percent from last month and down 0.5 million or 5 percent from last year. The area is forecast at 6.4 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month and down 0.15 million or 2 percent from last year. The current forecast represents the combined production from the Rabi and Kharif seasons. The U.S. agricultural attache completed field travel and reported lower production in the major producing states of Kanataka and Andhra Pradesh. Adverse weather is responsible for this seasons decline. Indias poultry industry is the largest user of corn. The industry may be negatively affected by higher corn prices caused by the short fall of corn and low poultry prices due to over production.

Jan 1 2002 | Pakistan: Cotton Estimate Down on Reduced Arrivals
The 2001/02 cotton crop is estimated at 7.6 million bales, down 0.4 million or 5 percent from last month and down 0.6 million or 7 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.13 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.2 million hectares or 8 percent from last year. Pakistan cotton production will be reduced this season due to pest attacks. Pressure from heliothis and army bollworms in central and eastern Punjab between mid-September and mid-October will result in yield declines. Arrival data indicates a lower crop size than previously estimated. January 1, 2002 arrivals in the three past seasons consistently account for about 84 percent of the final crop excluding unreported cotton. January 1, 2002 arrivals are currently 6.1 million bales (480-pound). Arrivals are expected to continue for the next few months.

Jan 1 2002 | Pakistan: Water Shortage Reduces Rice Crop More Than Expected
The Pakistan 2001/02 rice crop is forecast at 3.74 million tons, down 0.36 million or 9 percent from last month and down 0.96 million or 20 percent from last year. The area forecast is unchanged at 2.0 million hectares. In its second estimate, the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock in Islamabad lowered its figure for Pakistan's MY 2001/02 rice crop output. Winter snowfall was lower than normal the last couple of years, and the shortage of irrigation reserves induced farmers to plant less of high yielding rice varieties

Mar 1 2002 | Pakistan: 2001/02 Cotton Forecast Increased
The 2001/02 cotton crop is estimated at 8.0 million bales, up 0.2 million from last month, but down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 3.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.2 million or 7 percent from last year. The 8.0 million bale forecast is based upon cotton arrivals at gins as of March 1. Cotton arrival data for March 1 typically account for 96 to 98 percent of the final arrivals. Applying a factor of 97 percent and including a small allowance for unreported production results in an estimate of 8.0 million bales.

Aug 1 2002 | India: Poor Monsoon Hampers Rice, Cotton, and Soybean Production
The 2002/03 Indian rice crop is forecast at 80 million tons, down 10.0 million or 11 percent from last month and down 11.6 million or 13 percent from last year (see figure at right). Production is revised downward based on a reduction in estimated planted area and expected lower yields, resulting from an erratic monsoon. Area is forecast at 42.5 million hectares, down 2.2 million or 5 percent from last month and down 2.3 million or 5 percent from last year. Area is revised lower as dry conditions in rice-growing areas have delayed or reduced sowings. In several rice growing states, yield potential is declining with the continued dryness, stressing the crop. The 2002 southwest monsoon began with a relatively good start over most of the rice growing areas. Since mid-July the monsoon precipitation has fallen below normal in many areas; especially hard hit are the kharif rice crop areas. This crop comprises approximately 88 percent of Indias total crop and is highly dependent on the monsoon rains. In the irrigated states of Punjab and Haryana, irrigation reserves are being depleted at a high rate due to the above normal temperatures, increased water use by the plants, and the absence of monsoon rains. Under similar weather in 1995, when major rice growing regions received poor rains until mid-July (but followed by satisfactory rains later), rice production declined by 5 million tons from the previous years level. The 2002/03 India cotton crop is forecast at 10.5 million bales, down 1.0 million or 9 percent from last month and down 1.8 million or 15 percent from last year. Production is revised downward based on a reduction in estimated planted area resulting primarily from low cotton prices and lower yields from an erratic and limited monsoon rainfall. In several cotton-growing states, yield potential has declined from lack of soil moisture and above-normal temperatures. The 2002/03 India soybean crop is forecast at 5.0 million tons, down 0.8 million or 14 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 7 percent from last year. Production is revised downward based on a reduction in estimated planted area and lower yields resulting from this seasons erratic rainfall. Following the late though adequate planting rains, a prolonged dry spell in parts of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan reduced yield potential for the recently established crop. Conditions in Maharastra are generally favorable. On average, Maharastra produces 13 percent of Indias total soybean crop; Madhya Pradesh, 74 percent; and Rajasthan, 10 percent. Overall rainfall for the soybean region remains significantly below normal. However, the distribution of the limited precipitation has been particularly well timed for the soybean crop. After a dry spell in late July, approximately 2 to 5 inches of precipitation fell August 3 over the entire soybean area, offsetting some of the negative impact of the previous hot and dry two weeks.

Jul 1 1999 | INDIA: OILSEEDS FORECAST HIGHER
India oilseed production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 26.8 million tons, up 1.05 million tons, or 4 percent from last year. Despite this year's lower prices, production of soybeans is forecast to increase 2 percent to 6.1 million tons as farmers in Rajasthan and Maharashtra are expected to shift area from less profitable coarse grains to soybeans. Peanut production in 1999/2000 is forecast to increase 8 percent to 8.0 million tons after last year's crop was diminished by unfavorable weather in peanut growing regions. Sunflowerseed production is forecast to increase 8 percent to 1.3 million tons in response to strong domestic demand for sunflowerseed oil. Rapeseed and cottonseed are also expected to increase, 3 percent and 2 percent to 6.0 and 5.4 million tons, respectively.

Aug 1 1999 | INDIA: COTTON AREA IS REDUCED DUE TO ADVERSE SEEDING CONDITIONS
Cotton production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 12.1 million 480 pound-bales. This is a reduction of 550,000 bales from last months 12.65 million and a 700,000 bale reduction from last years production of 12.8 million. The 1999/2000 area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, a drop of 300,000 hectares from lastyear due to weak monsoonal rains. Dry conditions during the planting windows in Gujarat, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh contributed to the decrease in area this season. Gujarats cotton areas are the most affected with most of the area drop occurring in this state as the dryness has continued during the monsoon season. In past seasons, Gujarat has contributed nearly 30 percent of Indias total cotton production. Due to the decline in area and crop stress, Gujarat is expected to contribute only 20 percent of the crop this season. The rainfed areas of the central and southern states will require a second round of monsoon rains in early September to sustain current progress. Another contributing factor to the area decrease is a slight shift from cotton to other crops in the northern states.

Aug 1 1999 | PAKISTAN: COTTON ESTIMATED HIGHER
Pakistans cotton production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 7.2 million bales, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.9 million from last years weather and insect reduced crop. The increase is based largely on good growing weather and the absence of major pest problems, thus far. Weather through the end of August generally has been favorable. Except the May cyclone in the lower Sindh, which damaged or destroyed about 50,000 hectares of cotton, no other weather-related problems have been reported. Irrigation supplies are adequate and monsoon rains have been widespread and well spaced since mid-July. Rainfall has helped to control white fly populations. However, some pockets of bollworm infestations were reported. Rains have helped to keep day time temperatures around normal levels. Pesticide supplies are reported to be adequate. Weather and insect infestation levels in September and into early October will be major determinants of the final output.

Aug 1 1999 | INDIA: POOR MONSOON RAINS DIMINISH PEANUT PRODUCTION
Groundnut conditions have improved slightly during the past month in Andrah Pradesh but remain poor in Gujarat. Indian peanut production for 1999/2000 is estimated lower at 6.9 million tons, down from 8.0 million tons. Area remains at 8.0 million hectares. The decrease is the result of a weak monsoon and resulting dryness in the major groundnut growing regions of Gujarat and southern Andhra Pradesh. The main Gujarat growing region of Saurashtra has received only 40 percent of normal rainfall during the current monsoon for the period up to August 25 thus creating very dry conditions in this predominantly rain fed area. The current crop is reported to be at flowering and pod formation stages and susceptible to moisture stress. Rainfall levels during September will be a significant determinant of final production levels.

Aug 1 1999 | INDIA: COARSE GRAIN OUTPUT REDUCED DUE TO DRY WEATHER
Indias 1999/2000 coarse grain production estimates are lowered this month based on monsoon activity. The larger producing regions of corn, sorghum, and millet experienced an extended dry spell and is now expected to have a moderate affect on the coarse grain yields. The major growing regions in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar have received only 50 to 70 percent of the normal monsoon rainfall amounts as of early September. Corn production is estimated at 10.5 million tons, down from last months estimate of 11.0 million; sorghum production at 9.0 million tons, down from 10.0 million; and millet production at 9.5 million tons, down from 10.3 million. The rainfall pattern during September will be a significant determinant on final production levels.

Sep 1 1999 | INDIA: COTTON AREA IS REDUCED DUE TO ADVERSE SEEDING CONDITIONS
Cotton production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 12.1 million 480 pound-bales. This is a reduction of 550,000 bales from last months 12.65 million and a 700,000 bale reduction from last years production of 12.8 million. The 1999/2000 area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, a drop of 300,000 hectares from lastyear due to weak monsoonal rains. Dry conditions during the planting windows in Gujarat, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh contributed to the decrease in area this season. Gujarats cotton areas are the most affected with most of the area drop occurring in this state as the dryness has continued during the monsoon season. In past seasons, Gujarat has contributed nearly 30 percent of Indias total cotton production. Due to the decline in area and crop stress, Gujarat is expected to contribute only 20 percent of the crop this season. The rainfed areas of the central and southern states will require a second round of monsoon rains in early September to sustain current progress. Another contributing factor to the area decrease is a slight shift from cotton to other crops in the northern states.

Sep 1 1999 | PAKISTAN: COTTON ESTIMATED HIGHER
Pakistans cotton production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 7.2 million bales, up 0.2 million from last month and up 0.9 million from last years weather and insect reduced crop. The increase is based largely on good growing weather and the absence of major pest problems, thus far. Weather through the end of August generally has been favorable. Except the May cyclone in the lower Sindh, which damaged or destroyed about 50,000 hectares of cotton, no other weather-related problems have been reported. Irrigation supplies are adequate and monsoon rains have been widespread and well spaced since mid-July. Rainfall has helped to control white fly populations. However, some pockets of bollworm infestations were reported. Rains have helped to keep day time temperatures around normal levels. Pesticide supplies are reported to be adequate. Weather and insect infestation levels in September and into early October will be major determinants of the final output.

Sep 1 1999 | INDIA: POOR MONSOON RAINS DIMINISH PEANUT PRODUCTION
Groundnut conditions have improved slightly during the past month in Andrah Pradesh but remain poor in Gujarat. Indian peanut production for 1999/2000 is estimated lower at 6.9 million tons, down from 8.0 million tons. Area remains at 8.0 million hectares. The decrease is the result of a weak monsoon and resulting dryness in the major groundnut growing regions of Gujarat and southern Andhra Pradesh. The main Gujarat growing region of Saurashtra has received only 40 percent of normal rainfall during the current monsoon for the period up to August 25 thus creating very dry conditions in this predominantly rain fed area. The current crop is reported to be at flowering and pod formation stages and susceptible to moisture stress. Rainfall levels during September will be a significant determinant of final production levels.

Sep 1 1999 | INDIA: COARSE GRAIN OUTPUT REDUCED DUE TO DRY WEATHER
Indias 1999/2000 coarse grain production estimates are lowered this month based on monsoon activity. The larger producing regions of corn, sorghum, and millet experienced an extended dry spell and is now expected to have a moderate affect on the coarse grain yields. The major growing regions in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar have received only 50 to 70 percent of the normal monsoon rainfall amounts as of early September. Corn production is estimated at 10.5 million tons, down from last months estimate of 11.0 million; sorghum production at 9.0 million tons, down from 10.0 million; and millet production at 9.5 million tons, down from 10.3 million. The rainfall pattern during September will be a significant determinant on final production levels.

Oct 1 1999 | INDIA: SOYBEAN AND PEANUT PRODUCTION ESTIMATES LOWERED
Indian 1999/2000 peanut production is estimated at 6.0 million tons, down 0.9 million or 13 percent from last month and down 19 percent from a year ago. Rains which arrived the last week of September were too late for the Gujarat peanut crop, and an estimated 70 percent of the states crop was lost. Rains in other producing areas have been erratic and those areas are not expected to make up for the decline in Gujarat. Travel in soybean producing areas revealed that low prices resulted in a greater reduction of area than was previously estimated. Soybean harvested area is estimated at 5.8 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month, while production is estimated at 5.5 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month and 0.5 million below last year.

Oct 1 1999 | INDIA: RICE PROJECTED AT RECORD; COARSE GRAINS LOWERED
Indias rice production is projected at a record 85.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and surpassing last years level by nearly 1 percent. Harvested area is at a record level and yield matches last seasons record. The kharif crop (first season and representing nearly 90 percent of rice production) received beneficial rainfall and near normal temperatures throughout most of the growing season. According to the Indian Meteorological Office, the country as a whole received 96 percent of its average monsoonal rainfall this year making 1999 the twelfth consecutive "normal" monsoon; however, the rainfall was not well distributed or timely in some coarse grain and oilseeds growing areas. For total coarse grain, production is lowered this month to an estimated 28.5 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month and down 8 percent from last seasons record crop. Millet and sorghum are reduced by 1.0 million tons each to an estimated 8.5 million and 8.0 million tons, respectively, due to reduced area and yield. Drought continued to affect areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan despite recently receiving 10 to 20 millimeters of rain as this proved to be too little and too late to salvage the moisture-stressed sorghum and millet crops. However, these rains along with heavier amounts to the east are beneficial for the upcoming rabi (winter) crops, particularly rapeseed and wheat.

Nov 1 1999 | INDIA: COTTON PRODUCTION TO RISE AS WEATHER CONDITIONS
Cotton production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 12.7 million bales (including 600,000 bales loose cotton) on prospects of better yields in the northern states (Punjab/Haryana and Rajasthan) and Gujarat due to favorable weather since September. The irrigated cotton areas of the northern states had sufficient canal water access and excellent growing conditions. In the northern zone the seasons cloudless skies and scant rainfall resulted in negligible insect problems. Bollworm attacks were also down this season, in contrast to the heavy losses suffered in the past two seasons. Despite an area decline of more than 15 percent in the region, production is estimated to increase by more than 20 percent this year. The central states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh received good rains during September through early October which benefitted the water-stressed cotton crop, particularly in Gujarat which was reeling under drought conditions due to low rains in July/August. The late rains and improved soil moisture will provide additional pickings and increase yields. In the central and southern zones, the crop is doing well and there are no reports of any significant pest damage.

Nov 1 1999 | PAKISTAN: COTTON ESTIMATED HIGHER
Pakistans cotton production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 7.8 million bales, up 0.3 million from last month and up 1.5 million from last years weather and insect reduced crop. The increase is based largely on good growing weather and the absence of major pest problems. Through October, cotton arrivals at gins were reported to be over 270,000 MT--or about double last years pace. The faster pace is due to the early maturation of the crop, coupled with farmers willingness to sell as soon as the crop is harvested, rather than risk further price declines. Farmers expect a marginal third picking (due to decreased nitrogen usage) and now predict the harvest will be completed by mid-December. Weather through the end of October generally has been favorable.

Dec 1 1999 | INDIA: RICE PRODUCTION REVISED LOWER
Indias rice production is forecast at 84.5 million tons (milled basis), down 1.0 million tons from last month, and slightly below last seasons record level. The 1999/2000 rice area is now estimated at 44.5 million hectares, down 0.3 million hectares from last month and matching the 1998/99 crop area. Cyclone 05B storm tracked inland into eastern Orrisa during late October with high winds, heavy rains, and storm surges causing damage to the maturing kharif rice crop. Rice in the affected area will be limited by poor soil conditions due to the inundation of fields with salt water and the lack of irrigation facilities. In addition, below-normal precipitation in the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu hindered the rabi rice planting; however, recent rainfall has eased the dryness. Kharif (monsoon season) rice crop losses are expected to be partly offset by a higher rabi(winter) crop.

Dec 1 1999 | PAKISTAN: WHEAT REVISED LOWER
Pakistan wheat production for 1999/2000 is estimated at 17.9 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month and down 4 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 8.2 million hectares, down 0.1 million from last month. Pakistans Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock has revised wheat production figures based on latest arrival data. Yields are lower this season due to economic sanctions that constrained Pakistans ability to import fertilizers. Over 80 percent of the wheat is irrigated.

Sep 1 2002 | India: 2002/03 Rice Production Forecast Decreased
Indias 2002/03 rice crop is forecast at 78.0 million tons, down 2.0 million or 3 percent from last month and down 13.6 million or 15 percent from last year. Production is revised downward based on a reduction in estimated planted area and lower yield potential resulting from erratic monsoon rainfall. Precipitation from mid-July to September remains below normal in most areas. Kharif rice comprises approximately 88 percent of Indias total crop and is highly dependent on monsoon rains. The current forecast of 78.0 million tons is comprised of the kharif forecast of 68 million and a projected rabi forecast of 10 million. The Rabi crop is mostly irrigated and is grown in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. The major surplus-producing areas of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh are expect to produce significantly less this year as compared to last season due to a decline in planted area and low irrigation availability. Prospects in the other major rice growing states vary from average to poor.

Oct 1 2002 | Improved Rains Boost India's 2002/03 Cotton Production, But Come too Late for Other Crops
India 2002/03 cotton production is forecast at 10.9 million bales, up 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month as rains in September improved moisture availability for the standing cotton crop, but is down 1.4 million or 11 percent from last year. The late revival of the southwest monsoon resulted in good rains from the end of August through mid-September in most cotton growing areas (except some pockets in the south), providing relief to the drought-stressed crop. The crop continues to progress well under generally favorable conditions due to improved soil moisture availability. However, late rains have resulted in a 3 to 4 week delay in crop maturity and expected market arrivals. A clearer picture will emerge by early December when picking accelerates in most growing areas. Indias other crops did not benefit from this rainfall.

Jan 1 2003 | Pakistan: 2002/03 Cotton Production Increases Due to Higher Cotton Arrivals at Gins
Cotton production for 2002/03 is forecast at 8.0 million bales, up 0.2 million or 3 percent from last month, but down 4 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 2.7 million hectares, down 0.4 million or 14 percent from year. The increase from 7.8 million bales to 8.0 million is based on cotton arrivals at gins. The total arrivals as of January 3, 2003, are 8.736 million Pakistan bales, with an average bale weight of 166.25 kilograms. The arrivals to date as a percentage of the final arrivals have averaged 84.5 percent for the previous 5 years, excluding 2001/02. Last year, the crop moved to gins late, adding 2.5 million bales to the January arrival report. Based on the previous 5-year average, 1.4 million bales could be added to the January 2003 report. This implies 86 percent arrivals to date, resulting in final arrivals of 10.136 million Pakistan bales. The 166.25-kilogram bale weight and assuming unreported production of 3 percent, suggests production of 8.0 million 480-pound bales Cotton is produced primarily in the provinces of Punjab (85 percent) and Sindh (15 percent). Temperatures during the summer season were near normal in both provinces, suggesting no heat stress to the cotton crop. Cumulative precipitation analysis indicates below-normal conditions in both provinces, especially in Sindh. However, irrigation supplies were reported to be plentiful during the growing season.

Mar 1 2003 | India: 2002/03 Peanuts Suffer From Dryness
The 2002/03 India peanut crop is forecast at 5.4 million tons, down 1.3 million or 19 percent from last month and down 2.2 million or 29 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 6.8 million hectares, down 1.3 million or 16 percent from last month and down 1.4 million or 17 percent from last year. Lack of rainfall during the critical growth stages of the Kharif peanut crop lowered production in the major producing states of Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. The state of Gujarat, which accounts for 25 to 30 percent of Indias total crop, experienced a delayed arrival of the monsoon, which subsequently affected sowing. Earlier expectations that the crop was able to recover were based on the appearance of healthy vegetative growth later in the season; however, pod formation was seriously affected. The Rabi portion of the crop, which constitutes approximately 20 percent of Indias total production, is grown in the southern states from November to April. This crop has received below normal winter precipitation. The effect of less favorable weather is being exacerbated by the already low irrigation reserves normally used to supplement the crop during critical growth phases.

Apr 1 2003 | Pakistan and Bangladesh: 2002/03 Wheat Production Lower With Release of Official Country Estimates
Pakistan's 2002/03 wheat production is estimated at 18.2 million tons, down 1.3 million or 7 percent from last month and down 797,000 tons, or 4 percent below last year. The 2002/03 Pakistan wheat crop was harvested in May 2002 and this production figure revision reflects the latest information from the government of Pakistan. Wheat production in Bangladesh in 2002/03 is now estimated 1.8 million tons. This is 100,000 tons or 5 percent below last month, but is 140,000 tons or 9 percent above last year. The 2002/03 Bangladesh wheat crop was harvested in May 2002 and this production figure revision reflects the latest information from the government of Bangladesh. (James Crutchfield, 202/690-0135).

May 1 2003 | India's 2003/04 Millet Production Forecast To Increase
India's 2003/04 millet production is estimated at 10.0 million tons. This is up 4.0 million or 67 percent from last year. The current 2003/04 India millet area forecast is 12.0 million hectares, up 3.0 million or 33 percent from last year. This seasons millet crop, as well as the other coarse grains, is forecast to return to normal production levels. Last season, a large portion of the normally rainfed millet areas of western India endured extremely dry conditions due to monsoon failure. Millet is an important food grain in India. This increase will benefit food needs in rural areas. Hopes are for a normal monsoon season scheduled to begin in June, which will provide much needed water supply replenishment after last years monsoon failure.

Jun 1 2003 | India: 2002/03 Soybean Production Falls On Weak Harvest Results
India's 2002/03 soybean production is estimated at 4.0 million tons, down 0.4 million or 9 percent from last month and down 1.4 million or 26 percent from last year. This is a further refinement of last seasons drought-reduced crop. The 2002/03 India soybean area estimate is 5.7 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 0.3 million or 6 percent from last year. This area estimate is 200,000 hectares, or 4 percent below the 5-year average. As of April 30, 2003, market arrivals in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state, totaled 1.9 million tons compared with 2.5 million for the same period last season. On average, Madhya Pradesh produces 74 percent of Indias total soybean crop; Maharastra, 13 percent; and Rajasthan, 10 percent.

Jun 1 2003 | India: 2003/04 Wheat Production Decreased
India's 2003/04 wheat production is forecast at 67 million tons, down 3 million or 4 percent from last month, and down 4.8 million or 7 percent from last year. Historically, the largest year-to-year production decrease occurred in the 2001/02 season with a reduction of 6.7 million tons, or 6 percent, below the previous season. This forecast is 4.0 million tons or 6 percent below the 5-year average. The current yield forecast of 2.7 tons per hectare is essentially unchanged from last month, and down 0.1 tons per hectare or 3 percent below last year. Harvest season is concluding and reports of lower than previously anticipated yields are emerging from several major producing states. Lower production is attributed to abnormally low temperatures and cloudy conditions during January.

Aug 1 2003 | India: 2003/04 Corn Production Increases
India's 2003/04 corn production is forecast at 13.0 million tons, up 2.0 million or 18 percent from last month and up 1.9 million or 17 percent from last year. Corn area is forecast at 6.9 million hectares, up 0.7 million or 11 percent from last month and up 0.6 million or 10 percent from last year. The current yield forecast is 1.88 tons per hectare, up 0.1 tons per hectare, or 6 percent above last month, and up 0.12 tons per hectare, or 7 percent above last year. The area increase is a result of higher corn prices and increased demand for corn in the poultry sector. Rainfall from the 2003 monsoon favored timely sowing and produced beneficial conditions for plant development. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135)

Sep 1 2003 | India: Favorable Rains Fall on 2003/04 Kharif Peanut Crop
India's 2003/04 peanut production is forecast at 7.5 million tons, up 0.5 million or 7 percent from last month and up 2.3 million or 44 percent from last year. Current 2003/04 India peanut area forecast is 8.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.2 million or 18 percent from last year. The 2003 southwest monsoon arrived by mid-June in most peanut growing areas. June through August rainfall amounts were normal to above-normal. Rainfall and temperature patterns have thus far created favorable growing conditions for the Kharif peanut crop, particularly in Gujarat, which typically is the largest producing state. The current yield forecast is 938 kilograms per hectare, up 63 kilos per hectare or 7 percent above last month, and up 174 kilos per hectare or 23 percent above last year. (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Oct 1 2003 | India: 2003/04 Rapeseed Pre-Planting Conditions Favorable
India's 2003/04 rapeseed production is forecast at 5.5 million tons, up 0.9 million or 20 percent from last month and up 1.9 million or 53 percent from last year. Rapeseed area is forecast at 6.6 million hectares, up 1.1 million or 20 percent from last month and up 1.8 or 38 percent from last year. The 2003/04 sowing season will commence this month. Area is expected to rebound to levels that prevailed before the drought of the last several seasons. Increased planting is being triggered by higher oilseed prices during the previous season and by better rainfall. This years start of season conditions are more favorable as a result of beneficial rainfall received during the 2003 Southwest Monsoon. The distribution of rainfall temporally and spatially has provided nearly ideal sowing conditions for rapeseed in the major growing states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana. The minor producing states of Punjab and Gujarat also received beneficial rains, and rapeseed area is expected to rebound to pre-drought levels. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135)

Dec 1 2003 | India: 2003/04 Cotton Production Forecast Raised on Higher Yields, Better Arrivals
India's 2002/03 cotton production is forecast at 12.7 million bales, up 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month and up 2.1 million or 20 percent from last year. The area forecast is 8.4 million hectares, down 0.1 from last month, but up 0.8 million or 11 percent from last year. This seasons higher production is a result of higher area and yield compared to last year. The 2003 monsoon brought very good growing conditions this season, providing adequate irrigation reserves, and rainfall in the dryland cotton areas. The 2002 seasons weak monsoon resulted in lower area in several key-producing states. Field reports indicate higher production due to better-than-expected crop yields in northern and central regions due to ideal harvest conditions. The strong pace of market arrivals in these regions supports the increased forecast. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jan 1 2004 | Pakistan: Reduced Cotton Production Estimate Based on Weak Arrival Data
Pakistan's 2003/04 cotton production is forecast at 7.6 million bales, down 0.3 million or 4 percent from last month and down 0.2 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.2 million or 7 percent from last year. Field reports indicated crop condition was satisfactory to very good prior to September. Above-average rainfall in key growing regions during late August and early September resulted in reduced output, and, compounded by unavailability of quality pesticides, a pest-vulnerable crop. The full extent of damage is now becoming apparent through arrival statistics from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association. The Pakistan cotton ginning and arrival data as of January 1 reveals a 4-percent decrease in arrivals compared to the same period last season. In addition, the rate of arrivals from December to January has decreased likely indicating an overall reduction in output. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jan 1 2004 | India: Wheat Production Estimate Revised Upward
India's 2003/04 wheat output is estimated at 69.3 million tons, up 2.3 million or 3 percent from last month, but down 2.5 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 25.3 million hectares, up 0.3 million or 1 percent from last month, but down 0.6 million or 2 percent from the previous season. The crop was sown in November 2002 under drier than normal conditions following Indias first monsoon failure of the previous 14 seasons. The revised area and production estimates reflect the latest available information from the Government of India as reported by the Attaché in New Delhi, India. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jan 1 2004 | India: Corn Production Forecast at Record Level
India's 2003/04 corn output is estimated at a record 14.0 million tons, up 1.0 million or 8 percent from last month and up 2.9 million or 26 percent from last years drought affected crop. Area is forecast at a record 7.0 million hectares, up 0.1 million or 1 percent from last month and up 0.7 million or 11 percent from last year. The 2003/04 Kharif, or fall harvested, corn crop comprises approximately 85 percent of the total crop. An excellent monsoon from June to September 2003 has helped to boost the Kharif area and yield. The Rabi, or summer harvested, corn crop is normally about 15 percent of the total. Beneficial autumn rains contributed to the expansion of the Rabi sown area. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 1 2004 | India: Large Rapeseed Crop Seen During February Field Travel
India's 2003/04 rapeseed production is forecast at 6.2 million tons, up 0.4 million or 7 percent from last month and up 2.6 million or 72 percent from last year. This forecast is second only to 1996/97 when a record 6.9 million hectares produced a record 6.9 million ton crop. Current year rapeseed area is forecast at 6.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.8 million or 38 percent from last years drought-reduced crop. Favorable levels of precipitation occurred during the important August 15 to November 15, 2003 time period, which encouraged farmers to plant. Additionally, field travel in February 2004 revealed a crop in favorable condition, heavy with pods and seed. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 1 2004 | India: 2003/04 Soybean Production Estimate Revised Higher
India's 2003/04 soybean production is estimated at 6.8 million tons, up 0.6 million or 10 percent from last month and up 2.8 million or 70 percent from last year. This current estimate exceeds the previous production record of 6.0 million tons set in the 1998/99 season resulting from the previous record area of 6.35 million hectares. The current year soybean area is estimated at 6.45 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.78 million or 14 percent from last years drought-reduced crop. In October 2003, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) declared that the 2003 Southwest Monsoon was favorable. The IMD determined that India received 102 percent of normal precipitation for the period June 1-September 30, 2003. Indian soybean industry contacts report ample crushing supplies as evidence of the high production level. Virtually all of Indias soybean production occurs during the Kharif season. Kharif soybean planting occurs June-July followed by harvest in Sep-Oct. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Mar 1 2004 | India: Wheat Production Decreased
India's 2003/04 wheat production is revised downward to 65.1 million tons, a reduction of 4.2 million or 6 percent from last month and down 6.7 million or 9 percent from the previous seasons output. The 2003/04 India wheat area is forecast at 25.9 million hectares, up 0.6 million or 2 percent from last month, but unchanged from the previous season. The Government of India (GOI) Directorate of Economics and Statistics recently revised its earlier estimate of 69.3 million tons (issued December 2003) downward to 65.1 million. According to sources, the GOI explained that the seriousness of the 2002 drought and its effect on wheat production had been underestimated. The GOI reported that firm yield data becoming available from state level crop cutting surveys has made it apparent that production in 2003/04 season was less than originally stated. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Apr 1 2004 | Pakistan: GOP MinFAL Raises Wheat Production Estimate
Pakistan's 2003/04 wheat output is estimated at 19.2 million tons, up 1.0 million or 6 percent from last month and up 5 percent from last year. The area forecast is 8.1 million hectares, up 0.1 million hectares or 1 percent from last month and up 0.4 million or 5 percent from the previous season. The 2003/04 Pakistan wheat crop was sown in November 2003 under irrigated conditions, and although the sowing season followed on the driest South-West monsoon season in several years, irrigation water was adequate in all of the growing regions. This revision of area and production estimates reflects the latest available information from the Government of Pakistans Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock (MinFAL), as reported by the attaché in Islamabad, Pakistan. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Apr 1 2004 | India: Corn Production Increases to Record
India's 2003/04 corn output is estimated at 14.8 million tons, up 0.8 million or 6 percent from last month and up 3.7 million or 33 percent from last years drought-reduced crop. The area forecast is 7.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.7 million or 11 percent from last year. The 2003/04 Kharif, fall-harvested corn crop contributes approximately 85 percent of the total crop, and the Rabi, summer-harvested corn crop is normally about 15 percent of the total. An excellent monsoon from June to September 2003 has helped to boost Kharif area and yield. Autumn rains contributed to the expansion of the Rabi sown area also increasing overall production. The total corn area and yield, both new highs, will contribute to this forecast record crop. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

May 1 2004 | India: Cotton Production Forecast Raised on Arrival Data
India's 2003/04 cotton production is forecast at 13.1 million bales, up 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month and up 2.5 million or 24 percent from last year. The area forecast is 8.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.4 million or 5 percent from last year. This seasons higher production is the result of higher area and yield. Recently, the strong pace of market arrivals now supports an increase to the forecast. Late season arrivals have been particularly strong in the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The 2004 monsoon season got off to a good start with excellent conditions for sowing and germination. The June through September 2004 rains provided good coverage in most dryland cotton areas as well as ensured adequate irrigation reserves. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 203-690-0135.)

May 1 2004 | The 2004/05 Indian wheat was sown predominantly during November 2003.
The 2004/05 Indian wheat was sown predominantly during November 2003. The last of the wheat areas will be harvested in mid-May 2004. The 2004/05 wheat crop got off to a good start with an excellent 2003 monsoon including late autumn rains. The 2004/05 production is expected to be higher than 2003/04. Most of the increase is likely to be in the states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where production suffered last year owing to drought conditions. Ideal planting and growth conditions characterized by ample subsoil moisture, normal winter rains, and early season cool temperatures provided a great start to the season. Growing conditions rapidly deteriorated in March and April. Unusually hot weather at the crop maturation stage reduced yield potential and affected wheat quality. It is estimated that yield losses in the major surplus regions of Punjab, Haryana, and western parts of Uttar Pradesh were relatively minor. Yield losses were more severe in the later-planted areas of Bihar and eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh. Overall, the wheat production is expected higher than the previous season.

Jul 1 2004 | India: Cotton Production Estimated Higher
India's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at 12.5 million bales, up 0.5 million or 4 percent from last month but down 0.7 million or 5 percent from last year. The current 2004/05 area forecast is 8.5 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 2 percent from last month, and up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last year. The year-to-year area increase reflects high cotton prices received by farmers in 2003/04. The 2003/04 yield was a record due to ideal monsoon coverage and low pest pressure. The 2004/05 yield is unlikely to reach the 2003/04 record level and is based on the assumption of average precipitation for the remaining monsoon period (June to September). The major cotton producing states in India include: Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. Planting is currently underway in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan and is nearing completion in Punjab and Haryana. According to the Indian Ministry of Agriculture, planting progress as of June 30 is ahead of last year by 0.3 million hectares or 3 percent of the total expected area. (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Aug 1 2004 | India: Rice Production Forecast Decreased on a Dry July
The 2004/05 Indian rice crop is forecast at 83.0 million tons, down 7.0 million or 8 percent from last month and down 3.4 million or 4 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 43.5 million hectares, down 1.0 million hectares or 1 percent from last month and down 0.5 million or 1 percent from last year. Rice area and yield potential have been lowered due to dry conditions in growing areas resulting in delayed and reduced sowings. The production forecast is revised downward based on poor monsoon performance in the major growing areas of north and central India and floods in east and northeast India. After a mostly dry July, there has been a significant revival in the monsoon activity during the first week of August, with areas of the severely moisture-stressed regions in west, north, and central India receiving copious rains. According to the Government of India, the recent rains have cut the cumulative rainfall deficit for the entire country to 10 percent, down from 15 percent in late July. Although the recent rain will prove beneficial for the standing rice crop, it is still unclear whether this would result in a significant revival of the planting operations of rice, as typically the optimal window of opportunity for planting closes by the end of July. Late planting will depend on the availability of short-duration variety seeds. Any rice sown later than normal will likely incur a reduction in yield. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 203-690-0135.)

Dec 1 2004 | Pakistan: Record Cotton Crop Being Delivered
Pakistan's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 10.0 million bales, up 0.75 million from last month and up 2.25 million from last year. The area forecast is 3.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.1 million from last year. Pakistan cotton area is at a record level and increased this season in response to higher cotton prices earlier this year. The below normal precipitation amounts received this season turned out to be a boon for the Pakistan cotton crop. In Pakistan, and other South Asian cotton areas, the crop often performs better with a lower rainfall seasonal pattern. Generally, average to above-average rainfall amounts, particularly in September, are highly correlated with higher pest incidence. This season the weak monsoon, combined with adequate irrigation supplies and favorable temperatures created positive growing conditions which are now evidenced in the arrival and ginning figures recently released. In a recent report from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), data showed December 1st arrivals far outpacing the previous record set in 2003. As of December 1, 2004, over 7.87 million (480 lb.) bales of the cotton crop reached the ginneries, a year-to-year increase of 53 percent. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Apr 1 2005 | Improved Indian Cotton Yields Boost Production
India's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 18.0 million bales, up 1.6 million from last month and up 4.2 million from last year. The area forecast is 9.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.2 million from last year. The India cotton area has increased this season in response to higher domestic cotton prices. The upward area revisions are reported in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. Current yields are forecast at a record 435 kg/ha, up almost 10 percent from a year ago and close to 39 percent above the 10-year average. Several very important factors combined this year to produce not only record yields, but also a record crop. First, techno-logical improvements, parti-cularly the use of high-yielding hybrid planting seeds and the increased use of Bt cotton, led to improved yields. Second, as a result of this seasons unusual monsoon rainfall pattern, sowing in these states was extended through early September compared to the normal end of sowing in late July. Market arrivals as of March 27, 2005, are reported to be 16.3 million bales. This is 40 percent above last seasons arrivals for the same period. And finally, higher yields this season were supported by alternating periods of precipitation followed by several days of sunshine creating environmental conditions unfavorable for pest proliferation.

Sep 1 2004 | India: Soybean Area Revised Higher
Indias 2004/05 soybean production is forecast at 7.0 million tons, up 1.3 million from last month and up 0.2 million from last year. The current 2004/05 soybean area forecast is 7.7 million hectares, up 1.3 million from last month and up 1.2 million from last year. The upward revision in production this month is a result of new information on area. The Agriculture Ministry reports a significant expansion in plantings of soybeans compared to last year, but abandonment will be larger than usual owing to drought in July. The revival of the monsoon in early August and favorable prices are the dominant factors contributing to the increased plantings. Maharastra, the second largest soybean producing state, is reported to have sown its largest soybean area to date. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Oct 1 2004 | India: Sorghum Forecast Revised Down
The Indian sorghum crop is forecast at 6.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month and down 0.8 from last year. Area is forecast at 9.2 million hectares, down 0.7 million from last month and down 0.3 million from last year. The prolonged dry spell in western and northern India has adversely affected production of coarse grains, particularly sorghum. The main growing states of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, and Rajasthan together produce about 90 percent of the countrys output. Only 5 percent of the sorghum area is irrigated. Sorghum is grown in the kharif (monsoon) and rabi (winter) seasons, but the kharif crop is higher in terms of both area and production and accounts for 60 percent of total production (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Oct 1 2004 | India: Record Cotton Production
India's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 14.2 million bales, up 1.2 million from last month and up 0.4 million from last year. Area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last month and up 0.9 million from last year. India cotton area has increased in response to higher cotton prices this year. The higher area is due to a resurgence in planting in the rainfed central and southern states following a revival of late July and August monsoon rains. Despite a weak early July monsoon performance, weather during August and September favored crop development. The current cotton yield forecast of 355 kilograms per hectare is below the record level of last year, when ideal weather prevailed in nearly all cotton-producing states. This seasons yield forecast is above average based on reports citing greater use of high-yielding and Bt cotton varieties throughout India. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Dec 1 2004 | India: Record Cotton Production Estimated
India's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 15.0 million bales, up 0.8 million from last month and up 1.2 million from last year. The area forecast is 9.0 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month and up 1.2 million from last year. The India cotton area has increased in response to higher domestic cotton prices this year. Upward revisions in area are reported in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. As a result of this seasons unusual monsoon rainfall pattern, sowing in these states was extended through early September compared to the normal end of sowing in late-July. Despite deficient mid-monsoon rainfall, weather during August and September improved and favored crop development. The current cotton yield forecast of 363 kilograms per hectare is below the record set last year when ideal weather prevailed in nearly all cotton-producing states. This seasons yield forecast is above average due to greater use of high yielding and Bt cotton varieties throughout India. In addition, this seasons alternating periods of precipitation followed by several days of sunshine were unfavorable for pest proliferation. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Dec 1 2004 | Pakistan: Record Cotton Crop Being Delivered
Pakistan's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 10.0 million bales, up 0.75 million from last month and up 2.25 million from last year. The area forecast is 3.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.1 million from last year. Pakistan cotton area is at a record level and increased this season in response to higher cotton prices earlier this year. The below normal precipitation amounts received this season turned out to be a boon for the Pakistan cotton crop. In Pakistan, and other South Asian cotton areas, the crop often performs better with a lower rainfall seasonal pattern. Generally, average to above-average rainfall amounts, particularly in September, are highly correlated with higher pest incidence. This season the weak monsoon, combined with adequate irrigation supplies and favorable temperatures created positive growing conditions which are now evidenced in the arrival and ginning figures recently released. In a recent report from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), data showed December 1st arrivals far outpacing the previous record set in 2003. As of December 1, 2004, over 7.87 million (480 lb.) bales of the cotton crop reached the ginneries, a year-to-year increase of 53 percent. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Jan 1 2005 | Pakistan: Favorable Growing Conditions Lead to Record Cotton Crop
Pakistan's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 11.5 million bales, up 1.5 million from last month and up 3.75 million from last year. The area forecast is 3.2 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.1 million from last year. January 1, 2005, ginning results indicate that arrivals to-date have exceeded last seasons total output. Pakistan Cotton Ginning Associations January 1, 2005, arrival and ginning data reveals 10.23 million bales have arrived thus far. This is 3.68 million bales more than last season for the same time period. Analysis of historical ginning data shows that arrivals as of January 1 normally total 80 to 85 percent of the total crop. Changes in varieties, planting date, and weather affect when the crop is picked and delivered. According to the Agricultural Attaché in Pakistan, cotton farmers in the largest producing state of Punjab planted earlier than normal due to an early wheat harvest, and relatively dry weather suppressed insect reproduction resulting in minor pest infestations that were easily controlled through pesticide applications. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Feb 1 2005 | India: Cotton Production New Record
India's 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 16.0 million bales, up 0.8 million from last month and up 2.2 million from last year. The area forecast is 9.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.2 million from last year. The India cotton area has increased in response to higher domestic cotton prices. Based on the latest information from the state agricultural departments and market sources as reported by the FAS office in New Delhi, the 2004/05 forecast is estimated at 9.0 million hectares. The upward area revisions are reported in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. As a result of this seasons unusual monsoon rainfall pattern, sowing in these states was extended through early September compared to the normal end of sowing in late-July. Market arrivals as of January 31, 2005 are reported to be 11.7 million bales. This is 40 percent above the last seasons arrivals for the same period. The 2004/05 Indian cotton yield is forecast at a record due to greater use of high yielding and Bt cotton varieties throughout India. Also supporting higher yields was this seasons alternating periods of precipitation followed by several days of sunshine creating environmental conditions unfavorable for pest proliferation. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135).

Apr 1 2005 | India: Excellent Growing Conditions Lead to Record Rapeseed Production
India's 2004/05 rapeseed production is estimated at a record 7.0 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month and up 0.2 million from last year. Area is forecast at a record 6.9 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 0.1 million from last year. Yield is also forecast to be a record, at 1.02 tons per hectare, just above the previous record of 1.01 tons set in 1996/97. During the post monsoon period beginning in October, northern India experienced above-average rains. These rains combined with favorable prices led to a record sown area. In February during the growing season, cool temperatures and occasional showers proved ideal for pod and seed development. Generally, cool temperatures in January and February are correlated with high yields. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

May 1 2005 | The Indian wheat crop is expected to produce 74.0 million tons
The Indian wheat crop is expected to produce 74.0 million tons, up 2 million from 2004/05. This crop was planted in November 2004 and has benefited from seasonably favorable weather. The majority of the wheat will be harvested in late April through early May and corresponds to the USDA Marketing Year (MY) 2005/06. The mostly irrigated crops in Punjab and Haryana produce one-third of India's wheat. The rain-fed areas of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and other states produce two-thirds India's wheat. Cooler temperatures and generally favorable shower activity during the winter months created generally excellent growing conditions. The region covering Punjab and Haryana had adequate irrigation supplies for the season. Precipitation during the flowering stage has significantly improved the yield potential for much of India's wheat. Pest and weed pressure is minimal this season. Phalaris minor is the common weed found in the region and is not a significant problem this year. The Indian states of Punjab and Haryana are relatively more advanced in wheat production, employing greater mechanization and more progressive agronomic practices than many other areas, and as a result have the highest yields in the country. This year, yields are expected to be significantly above average for this region. Other regions of the country including Rajasthan and Maharashtra, though minor wheat-producing states, also experienced favorable growing conditions, and the crop is in excellent condition. The crop stage in the west and central areas is normally more advanced and this season was no exception. In Rajasthan and Maharashtra, wheat harvesting was nearly completed by end of March. In both areas, early reports indicate normal to above normal yield. The Government of India is reporting an area similar to last season or the MY2004/05. Early-season conditions with widespread post-monsoon rainfall create good soil moisture conditions ideal for planting wheat. The season progressed with adequate showers and favorably cool temperatures into flowering. Vegetation health over the wheat areas as measured by satellite data indicates vegetation vigor and crop health well above average in most of the major wheat-producing region. Pest and weeds are exerting only minimal to average pressure. Total India wheat production this season will be greater than last season due to the higher yield forecast. Similar conditions have prevailed in Pakistan wheat growing regions. Pakistan is expected to produce 21.0 million tons, up 2 million from 2004/05, well above average. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)


Close Window