| Aug 28 2023 | PAKISTAN: COTTON PRODUCTION FORECAST TO RECOVER AFTER DEVASTING FLOODS |
Pakistan’s cotton production for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is estimated at 6.5 million
480-pound bales, up 2.6 million bales or 67 percent higher than the flood-damaged MY
2022/23 crop. The expected increase in production is due to a return to near average
yield and rebound in area after losses incurred last season.
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| Dec 22 2022 | India Rice: Production Down Due to a Decline in Planted Area |
Dry conditions in Northern and Eastern India resulted in a decline in planted area for
India’s rice crop. Production is expected to decline for the first time since MY 2015/16.
India's rice production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is 124.0 million metric
tons (milled basis), down 5 percent from MY 2021/22. (Figure 1). The 2022 Southwest
monsoonal rains have been above average, except for the Northern and Eastern
regions. Harvested area is estimated at 45.5 million hectares (mha), down 2 percent
from last year. (Figure 2) Yield is forecasted at 4.1 metric tons per hectare, down 3
percent from last year. India produces rice in both the kharif and rabi seasons. Kharif
rice, which is approximately 70 percent of total rice production, will be harvested in early
November. Rabi rice, which accounts for roughly 30 percent of total rice production, will
be planted from November to January and will be harvested in late April.
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| Nov 15 2021 | India’s Cotton Production Up Slightly Despite Decline in Area |
USDA estimates marketing year (MY) 2021/22 cotton production for India at 28.0 million
480-pound bales, unchanged from 2020 (Figure 1). The harvested area is estimated at
12.4 million hectares, down nearly 5 percent from last year. The area decrease is due to
the late arrival of the 2021 southwest monsoon and competition with other crops such as
soybeans and pulses. Yields are expected to reach 492 kilograms per hectare, up nearly
5 percent from 2020. India cotton yields have increased since MY 2018/19.
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| Jul 12 2021 | India Wheat Farmers Harvest Consecutive Record Crop |
Despite unfavorable weather and limited farm workers due to COVID-19 restrictions
across India, wheat production is expected to reach another record. USDA estimates
2021/22 wheat production at 108.0 million metric tons, up slightly from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at a record 32.0 million hectares, up 2 percent from last year.
This area expansion was attributed to the late withdrawal of the 2020 Southwest Monsoon
and competitive Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Yields, however, are predicted to drop
to 3.38 tons per hectare (t/ha), down almost 2 percent from the previous year because of
warmer-than-average temperatures and dry conditions across the Indian wheat belt (see
Figure 1).
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| Sep 30 2020 | India Cotton: Record Area and Production |
USDA estimates India’s harvested cotton area to reach record levels at 13.4 million hectares
(mha), up nearly 1 percent from 2019 (Figure 1). Yields are forecast to reach 487 kilograms
per hectare (kg/ha), down nearly 1 percent from last month and down nearly 2 percent from
2019 as farmers expand plantings in lower-yielding, non-irrigated areas and contend with
pest infestations. Production is forecast at 30.0 million 480-pound bales, up nearly 2 percent
from 2019/20.
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| Jun 12 2020 | India 2020/21 Wheat Production at Record Levels |
Despite unfavorable weather, and the limited availability of farm workers due to COVID-19 restrictions across India, 30.5 million hectares (mha) of wheat was harvested by the end of April 2020. Harvested area was up 4 percent with favorable market prices and with support pricing 5 percent higher than the previous year. Yield averaged 3.51 tons per hectare (t/ha), down slightly from the 2019/20 record, but up about 12 percent above the 5-year average. Production is estimated at a record 107.2 million metric tons (mmt), up 3 percent from 2019/20’s record production.
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| Sep 28 2018 | Pakistan: Cotton Conditions Improve |
Pakistan cotton production for 2018/19 is forecast at 8.5 million 480-pounds bales (mb), up 0.3 mb from last
season (Figure 1). Area is estimated at 2.7 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha from last season. The area
increase reflects prospects for higher cotton prices and delays in sugarcane payments, which encouraged some
farmers to plant more cotton. Area has not yet reached the previous 2012/13 high of 3.0 mha, but it is gradually
moving in that direction following the low-price-induced area of 2.4 mha that occurred in 2016/17 (Figure 2).
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| Jan 25 2018 | Pakistan Cotton Production Forecast to Surpass Last Season |
Pakistan cotton production for 2017/18 is forecast at 8.2 million 480-pound bales, an increase of 6 percent
from last year. The increase is driven by a recovery in area, which is estimated at 2.8 million hectares
(mha), up 0.4 mha or 17 percent from last year. This year’s higher area is largely a reflection of the higher
prices for cotton at the start of the planting season relative to other crops, and adequate reservoir levels. (For more information please contact James.crutchfield@fas.usda.gov)
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| Oct 12 2017 | India Cotton: Planted Area Increases Despite Flooding |
Despite localized flooding in central India, cotton production 2017/18 marketing year is forecast to increase 11 percent from last year, to 30.0 million 480-pound bales, based on an increase in estimated area and above-average yield. Area is estimated at 12.2 million hectares, up 12 percent from the previous year because of farmers’ optimism over a generally favorable monsoon despite an erratic start. Additionally, a structured pest and disease management schedule from the Ministry of Agriculture, and more favorable returns than for oilseeds and pulses, helped boost cotton area. Yield is forecast at 535 kilogram per hectare, down 7 percent from last year’s bumper crop but up 1 percent from the 5-year average. Yields are expected to be slightly above average in all regions except southern India, where yields are forecast to drop because of pest pressure and inadequate rainfall. Cotton is grown only in the kharif season. Harvest begins in October in northern India and typically continues until January in the rest of the country.
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| May 31 2017 | India: Estimated Wheat Harvest Reaches Record Level |
With India’s 2017 wheat harvest complete, USDA estimates 2017/18 production at a record 97.0 million metric tons. According to specialists from the U.S. Office of Agricultural Affairs in New Delhi, who conducted field travel during the harvest campaign in India’s prime wheat region, wheat yields in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab are higher than the previous two years. Wheat is grown during the rabi (winter) period; it is planted from late October through January and harvested in April. Over 90 percent of the crop is irrigated.
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| Mar 1 2017 | Pakistan Cotton Production Forecast to Recover from Last Season |
Pakistan cotton production for 2016/17 is forecast to rebound to 7.7 million 480-pound bales, an increase of 10 percent from last year. The increase is driven by an expected recovery in yield, which is estimated at 699 kilograms per hectare, up 28 percent from last year’s pest-ravaged crop. Harvested area, meanwhile, is estimated to drop by 14 percent to 2.4 million hectares. This year’s lower area is largely a reflection of the lower prices at planting for cotton relative to other crops, and to the discouraging returns last season. An increase in sugarcane area largely offset the decrease in cotton.
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| Feb 1 2017 | India Peanuts: Persistent Dryness Impacting Planting of Rabi Crop |
USDA estimates India peanut production for 2016/17 at 6.3 million metric tons, up 41 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 5.5 million hectares, up 21 percent from last year. The increase is attributed to favorable prices, and farmers switching from cotton to more profitable crops such as peanuts. Because of erratic monsoons and pest issues in the past, some farmers consider peanuts to be less risky than cotton. Yield is estimated at 1.15 tons per hectare, up 17 percent from last year because of favorable weather during the kharif season.
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| Oct 5 2016 | Pakistan Cotton Conditions Improve |
Pakistan cotton production for 2016/17 is forecast at 8.25 million 480-pounds bales (mb), up 0.25 mb from last season. The increase in the year-to-year production estimate is driven by an expected recovery in yield to 748 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha). Area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares (mha), down 0.1 mha from last season.
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| Aug 3 2015 | Favorable Onset of India’s 2015 Monsoon Raises Prospects for Kharif Season Crops |
India’s agriculture is heavily dependent on rain from the annual monsoon as nearly 53 percent of the total cropped area is rainfed. Even areas that are irrigated through canals, tanks, and groundwater are affected by the monsoon, especially when rainfall is low which results in lower reservoir and ground-water levels. The success or failure of the southwest monsoon in any year is, therefore, always crucial for crop production as well as for the Indian economy. The 2015 monsoon has so far been quite favorable; however, itis still too early in the growing season to make conclusive statements about the final 2015 monsoon performance
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| Jul 23 2015 | USDA-Pakistan Project Builds Provincial Capacity for Crop Reporting |
The Agricultural Information Systems Project in Pakistan is a collaborative initiative involving the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Government of Pakistan, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the University of Maryland (UMD). The major goal is “Building Provincial Capacity in Crop Production Forecasting and Reporting based on integrated use of Satellite-Remotely Sensed Data and other derivatives.”
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| Sep 5 2013 | Excess Monsoon Rainfall Raise Concerns for India’s 2013/14 Soybean Productivity |
USDA estimates India's 2013/14 soybean production at a record 12.3 million tons, up 0.3 million or 2.5 percent from the previous month and up 7 percent from last year. Area is forecast at a record 11.9 million hectares, up 8 percent from previous month, and up 10 percent from last year. The yield is forecast at 1.03 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from the previous month, and down 2.5 percent from last year. India’s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon season) under rainfed conditions.
There are two factors shaping the USDA’s forecast: increased plantings encouraged by early and widespread monsoon rainfall and the impact of excessive rainfall on potential yields generally resulting in lower-than-expected yields across the major soybean growing regions. The main soybean producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). As of August soybean sowing operations were still in progress. The optimal planting period is mid-June to mid-July. Early and widespread monsoon rainfall encouraged plantings and is resulting in record plantings across the country. According to official Government of India sowing progress reports at the end of July, area sown was at approximately 12 million hectares, representing 15 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The reported sown area is approximately 99.8 percent of the USDA’s projected area.
The 2013 monsoon rainfall across India started a month early and has been characterized as widespread with favorable-to-excess distribution. Most of the major soybean growing areas of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and south east Rajasthan received significantly above-normal precipitation in June, July and August. Overall cumulative rainfall was up 13 to 16 percent from the long-term-average. In the month of July the rainfall departures from normal ranged from 38 percent higher than normal in North West India, 42 percent in Central India and 27 percent in the South Peninsula.
The early and abundant rainfall has boosted area; however, the continued excessive rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan is raising major concerns to the growth and productivity of soybean. There is general agreement among observers and experts that excess rainfall is likely to result in significantly lower-than expected yields. As is true for other grain crops, soybean growth and development are also influenced by temperature. The seasonal temperatures have so far been within the expected range. Satellite image observations and analysis showed increased plantings and increased vegetative indices across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and south east Rajasthan. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202 720 7339, dath.mita@fas.usda.gov)
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| Feb 2 2009 | Wheat Production Situation January 2009 |
In September of 2008 FOB Gulf prices for wheat were down slightly from prices in 2007, while prices for soybeans and corn were much higher, indicating the incentives to plant wheat for the 2009/10 crop have diminished compared to a year ago. Additionally, many market watchers have been reporting high input prices and lower availability of credit. With continuing low stock levels and fairly high prices compared to previous years, there are still incentives for Northern Hemisphere farmers to produce wheat, although they are less compelling than a year ago.
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| Sep 16 2008 | MIDDLE EAST and CENTRAL ASIA: Continued Drought in 2009/10 |
The Middle East and Central Asia regions are currently in the grip of one of the worst droughts in recent history. Widespread failure of rain-fed grain crops occurred in 2008/09, as well as sizable declines in irrigated crop area and yield. Food grain production dropped to some of the lowest levels in decades, spurring governments to enact grain export bans and resulting in abnormally large region-wide grain imports. Should drought continue into the 2009/10 growing season which begins in October, even greater declines in grain production will occur as planted area for both rain-fed and irrigated crops will be severely restricted. A second year of severely reduced grain harvests would imply significantly increased regional grain import requirements as well as posing substantial threats to internal security in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Afghanistan is the most vulnerable, owing to its lack of financial resources for large-scale grain imports and lack of institutional expertise to plan and execute such imports.
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| May 14 2008 | India Rapeseed Production Estimate Below Last Season |
The 2007/08 crop, planted in November 2007, with harvest completed by May 2008 is forecast at 5.5 million tons, down 0.3 million or 5 percent from last year. Foreign Agricultural Service agricultural analysts from Washington, DC and New Delhi traveled through areas of central and western regions of India, which are important rabi (winter season) crop production regions. FAS staff assessed crop conditions and met with industry and government officials in the agricultural states of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashra and Rajasthan. Numerous observations of the crop were made in these important agricultural states of India.
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| Mar 16 2006 | India: Northeast India Fires. |
The ongoing hot and dry conditions currently affecting India's agriculture regions are lowering production potential. From modern wheat production areas of northwest India (see article: Excessive Heat Stresses Wheat Crop) to northeastern regions marked by indigenous agricultural practices, below normal precipitation and high temperatures are wreaking havoc. Intense fires in the northeast state of Mizoram are being monitored by FAS with satellite imagery.
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| Feb 27 2006 | India: Excessive Heat Stresses India's Wheat Crop. |
Prospects for the 2006/07 winter grain season in India were mostly positive until the recent heat wave. Typically early February marks the start of the gradual rise of daytime temperatures until May when temperatures peak for the season. However, this year not only did temperatures begin to increase in early January they rose 3 to 7 degrees above normal by mid-February in the major wheat growing regions of India.
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| Jan 26 2006 | India Rapeseed: Price Supports and Rain Contribute to Record Area |
Late monsoon rainfall combined with favorable prices have resulted in a record sown area for 2005/06 India rapeseed. Harvested area is forecast at 7.2 million hectares and yield, similar to the past three season, at 0.94 tons per hectare. Production is forecast at 6.8 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month and up 0.3 million from last year.
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| Oct 18 2005 | Indian Cotton Production Continues its Upward Climb |
Could India surpass the United States and even China as the largest cotton producer in the world and if so, how will this affect U.S. cotton producers? The United States, China and India produced record crops in 2004/05, and the 2005/06 crops are not far behind. The USDA is currently forecasting India's 2005/06 cotton crop at 19 million bales and the U.S. crop at 22.7 million bales. While the majority of India's cotton is consumed domestically, the majority of the U.S. cotton crop is exported. It is unlikely, at least in the short term, that India's expanding cotton production will affect U.S. cotton producers. However, if India's cotton production continues to outpace its consumption needs, Indian cotton could begin to displace U.S. cotton in other markets.
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| Aug 2 2005 | India: Soybean Production Hinges on Madhya Pradesh |
India's major soybean growing areas endured an extended dry period that delayed the start of the planting season. The central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the country's total soybean output. Dry conditions in this state during most of June generated concern in the oilseed industry.
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| Feb 23 2000 | INDIA'S WHEAT CROP CONTINUES TO RECEIVE FAVORABLE WEATHER |
As India's 2000/01 wheat crop approaches the flowering stage of development, timely and beneficial rain continues to fall in nearly all major producing states, except for isolated western areas. Despite the favorable growing conditions to date, cool weather through mid-March will be essential to maintain yield potential and grain quality.
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| Apr 18 2000 | Pakistan 2000/01 Wheat Crop Condition Assessment: Dry and Cool |
Prospects for a strong 2000/01 Pakistan wheat harvest have recently dimmed, with some trade sources indicating that this year may mirror the 1999/2000 harvest of 17.9 million tons. Official government estimates, however, remain at higher levels. Vegetation indexes do indicate areas of stressed vegetation occurring in Pakistans wheat region for the later portion of the growing season, both in comparison to last season as well as to average conditions. USDA will announce its official 2000/01 crop estimates on May 12.
Rainfall in the growing region was below normal from January to the end of March. However, much of the crop is irrigated, and near average yields were achieved last year despite similarly poor precipitation. More important for assessing yield potential is the degree to which water requirements are met during the critical crop pollination stage (February through mid-March). While preliminary information indicates that yields for the 2000/01 crop will be average to slightly below average, total production prospects are balanced by a likely increase in area, resulting in output proximate to last season. Sindh harvest began in mid-March. Punjab harvest typically begins during April, but this seasons cooler temperatures may cause minor delays.
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| Apr 19 2000 | India 2000/01 Wheat Crop Condition Assessment: |
Indias 2000/01 winter grain season has been characterized by generally good conditions, with precipitation levels generally more favorable than last year in main producing areas and cooler-than-average temperatures in all growing regions. Vegetation indexes indicate a potentially delayed crop, possibly due to the cooler weather. The rabi (winter) wheat planting is the main rabi season crop, especially in the Ganges River Plain. Area planted this season is likely marginally lower than last season. However, the production outlook is balanced by generally favorable conditions in the major grain belt (irrigated), while drier conditions have prevailed in the rain-dependent marginal growing areas. Production is not likely to exceed last seasons record output of 70.8 million metric tons.
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| May 3 2000 | Southwest Pakistan (Baluchistan Province) Faces Severe Drought Conditions |
The authorities in Pakistan and Afghanistan are appealing for international aid as continued drought devastates crops and livestock in the region. Officials in both countries have expressed fears that the problem will worsen this summer, as little rain is forecast. Some of the areas affected by the current drought have not had appreciable rainfall in several years. Pakistani news sources reported that almost two thirds of Baluchistan (the country's largest province), and the Thar Desert area in adjoining Sindh province, have been hit by the drought, forcing population migration. The neighboring area of southern Afghanistan was recently assessed by a UN visit as "very serious" but not yet critical.
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| Dec 19 1999 | India Crop Assessment Trip Report |
Analysts from USDAs Foreign Agricultural Service, jointly traveled through major cotton, rice, soybean, and peanut growing regions during September 1999. Nearly two thousand kilometers were covered in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Andrah Pradesh to meet with Indian officials responsible for crop assessment, remote sensing, agricultural research, commodity processors, local traders and farmers.
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| Jun 15 2000 | The Asian south-west monsoon arrives on time. Gujarat waiting for rainfall and Pakistan remains dry. |
The southwest monsoon officially arrived at the southern tip of India on June 1st. The monsoon's progress was generally satisfactory covering most parts of southern, eastern and central India by June 10. The monsoon progress stalled briefly, causing some concern for northwestern states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. However, in the last few days rainfall amounts of 15 to 35 mm have fallen in areas, except for Gujarat. Gujarat and Rajasthan have faced serious water shortages during the past several months. However, the severity of the situation was somewhat lessened by pre-monsoon rains which fell in both states. Unfortunately, Gujarat has received the least amount of rains to date. If this pattern continues India's total production level of cotton, peanut, and millet will be reduced as the state is historically a significant producer of all three crops. The India Meteorological Organization reports for the week ending June 7, 28 of the 35 weather subdivisions received normal or above normal rainfall compared with 12 subdivisions during the corresponding period in 1999. With the exception of Gujarat the India monsoon is performing satisfactory. If the monsoon covers the remaining Indian states with sufficient precipitation, as appears likely, it will be the thirteenth normal monsoon in succession.
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| Jul 20 2000 | KHARIF CROP PRODUCTION NOT HARMED BY ERRATIC START TO MONSOON |
The southwest monsoon officially arrived at the southern tip of India on June 1st. The monsoon's progress was generally satisfactory in all regions except central and western India. During the past month rainfall in all regions has significantly increased, easing drought conditions in Gujarat and Rajasthan, and increasing flows into irrigation reserves.
During the first three weeks of June the southwest monsoon failed to bring rains to major cotton, groundnut, and soybean regions of Gujarat and western Madhya Pradesh. Since that time significant falls have occurred through the region allowing sowing operations to resume. The minor delays of two to three weeks this season in western India is not expected to negatively impact final production, as all areas are now experiencing nearly full soil moisture profiles and good crop development for the early planted crops. The Kharif planting window is sufficiently wide to accommodate a delay of up to four week delays in some areas, as long as follow-on conditions are good. Given the last three weeks of beneficial temperatures (near normal) and rainfall this Kharif season should produce average to above average yield crops (millet, cotton, rice, peanut, corn, and sorghum).
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| Jul 21 2000 | INDIA: SOUTHERN PEANUT GROWING REGION NEEDS RAIN |
"Performance of the monsoon during the week ending July 12 was generally satisfactory with 22 of 35 weather subdivisions receiving normal or above normal rainfall. Heavier than normal rains fell along the west coast peninsular and Uttar Pradesh. Drought affected Gujarat state received exceptionally heavy rains, whereas West Rajasthan received only scanty rains. Major irrigated rice growing regions of East Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal and Bihar received significantly below normal rains. Rains in the soybean belt of West Madhya Pradesh were also below normal. Cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon season was normal or above normal in 26 of 35 weather subdivisions, notable exceptions being Madhya Pradesh (soybean and rice), Rajasthan (millet), Saurashtra(peanut and cotton)." - As reported by USDA-FAS Agricultural Counselor's office in New Delhi, India.
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| Jul 26 2000 | INDIA: RAINS DEFICIENT FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE WEEKS IN MAJOR RICE GROWING REGION |
Week Seven Monsoon Report: Rice, Soybean
The previously rain-deficit states of Rajasthan and Gujarat received heavy rains during the week ending July 19, greatly ameliorating concerns about drought. Rainfall during the week was normal or above normal in West Bengal, Orissa, West Madhya Pradesh and Madhya Maharashtra, which had been experiencing poor rains during the past two to three weeks. The soybean belt of West Madhya Pradesh received around 2.5 inches of rain which is near normal, whereas the rice growing region of East Madhya Pradesh received 50 percent below normal rain. Rains were deficient for three consecutive weeks in the Plains of Bihar, a major rice growing region. Overall the majority of growing areas are doing well with few areas experiencing crop stress.
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| Aug 1 2000 | INDIA: MONSOON LEAVES SOUTHERN GROWING REGIONS DRY |
There was a lull in monsoon activity during the week ending July 26, with only 7 out of 35 weather subdivisions receiving normal or above normal rainfall. Areas which received satisfactory rains include :East and West Rajasthan (millet, corn and pulses), West Madhya Pradesh (soybeans), East Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and Plains of Bihar (rice). In the rest of the country, rainfall was 20 to 99 percent below normal. The entire southern India received very little or no rain finishing the week with well below normal rainfall totals.
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| Aug 9 2000 | INDIA MONSOON: INSUFFICIENT RAIN EXPANDS DRYNESS IN CROP AREAS |
Rainfall distribution continued to remain unsatisfactory during the week ending August 2, with only 13 of the 35 weather subdivisions receiving normal or above normal rainfall. All India, area weighted rainfall was 35 percent below normal at 44.3 mm. Monsoon activity during the week was mostly concentrated in the previously rain-deficient regions of northeast India, Bihar plain and East Madhya Pradesh. Most parts of south and central India and Gujarat remained dry for the second consecutive week, which is causing some concern. Unless the monsoon activity picks up, crops in these regions (mostly rice, peanut, sorghum and millet) will start facing moisture stress. Following two weeks of heavy rains, the previously drought affected Rajasthan also remained dry. The soybean belt of West Madhya Pradesh received 36 mm rain, 55 percent below normal.
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| Aug 16 2000 | INDIA MONSOON: DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN NORTHERN HALF OF THE SUBCONTINENT. |
Dry weather persisted in most parts of north, central, and west India during the week ending August 9, with only 12 of the 35 weather subdivisions receiving normal or above normal rainfall. All India, area weighted rainfall for the week was 56 percent below normal at 28.5 mm. Gujarat (peanut, cotton, millet), Maharashtra (sorghum, cotton, pulses) and Orissa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala (rice) experienced below normal rainfall for the third consecutive week. While in the rice producing areas of Assam and Himachel Pradesh received excessive amounts of rain causing significant flooding. Conditions were drier than normal in West and East Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where major crops grown are soybeans, rice, millet and pulses. If the dry conditions continue the west and central states yield potential will be lower this season.
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| Aug 18 2000 | Excessive Rains Received in east India and Bangladesh |
Excessive rainfall during the current monsoon season, in conjunction with the already swollen rivers and saturated soils, resulted in severe floods in the region. Extensive flooding in east India and Bangladesh has killed a many people, displaced thousands, destroyed local irrigation structures, and damaged crops. Rainfall amounts in excess of 500 mm fell on east Bangladesh and the border area of east India during the first ten days of August. The portion of the Indian state of Assam which borders Bangladesh was most severely impacted. And in Bangladesh provinces of Tripura, Chittagong, and Dhaka received the heaviest rainfall amounts. Localized heavy rains and subsequent flash floods have also occurred in India states of Bihar, West Bengal, Mizoram and Assam.
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| Dec 15 2000 | PAKISTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK |
The Pakistan 2001/02 wheat crop sowing began in November 2000 and will be harvested in April 2001. As the planting window closes, approximately 70 percent of the crop has been planted. Conditions this season for wheat production are stacking up to be less than favorable.
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| Dec 15 2000 | PAKISTAN WHEAT: IRRIGATION and CATCHMENT AREA |
The most serious production factor facing Pakistan this season is the dwindling supply of irrigation water. As the planting window closes, approximately 70 percent of the crop has been planted. Major irrigation reservoirs are currently at very low levels; compounding the problem is the outflow for planting during the rabi season, which is greater than intake. Low levels of irrigation availability has typically resulted in government enforced allocations for major canals. These irrigation canal allocation limits often are unable to supply all of the crop's moisture requirements, and therefore become a yield-limiting factor. Unless recharged, December 2000 low reservoir levels will limit canal irrigation water availability. The low levels in the main reservoirs of Mangla and Tarbela are the result of less snowfall and rainfall accumulations over the past few months. Thus far in 2000, accumulation during the snowfall months is lower this year. Rainfall is also estimated to be less this season. With the 2000 season snow and rain accumulation period largely over, Pakistan will need to implement judicious canal water allocation plans given the low reservoir levels.
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| Dec 15 2000 | INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK |
India Wheat: Planting Conditions Unfavorable for the 2001/02 crop.
The Indian 2001/02 wheat crop sowing began in November 2000 and will be harvested in April 2001. Conditions in late 2000 for wheat production are stacking up to be less than favorable. Early withdrawal of the monsoon from northwest and central India, combined with below normal winter rains have depleted soil moisture in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. These states together account for roughly 20 percent of the countrys wheat production (mostly non-irrigated). Initial reports point to a significant decline in planted area in these states. In the largely irrigated states of Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh, however, planting is unlikely to be affected.
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| Feb 12 2001 | CURRENT SITUATION REPORT: 2001/02 INDIAN WHEAT CROP |
Lower year-to-year production is likely this season due to dry conditions in rainfed regions, reduced fertilizer use, and marginal irrigation supplies in some areas. However, prospects for lower yields in rainfed areas will be somewhat offset by increased yield potential arising from cooler temperatures in both irrigated and rainfed growing areas.
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| Mar 26 2001 | Second Dry Season for India's Wheat Area |
Wheat growing conditions in India are slightly less favorable than last season. However, heavy use of inputs was a key factor behind last year's record yields, and will again be a crucial determinant of wheat productivity this season
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| May 26 2001 | Second Dry Season for India's Wheat Area |
Wheat growing conditions in India are slightly less favorable than last season. However, heavy use of inputs was a key factor behind last year's record yields, and will again be a crucial determinant of wheat productivity this season.
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| May 2 2001 | INDIA: HEAVY RAINS INTERRUPT WHEAT HARVEST IN HARYANA AND PUNJAB |
Summary: Heavy rains interrupt wheat harvest in Haryana and Punjab but will not lower Indian Production.
(Go to Data and Graphics supporting this crop condition assessment)
Analysts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture traveled to the "bread basket" of India during the latter half of April. Field visits and discussions with agricultural officials in Punjab and Harlan revealed that the recent and localized heavy rains during mid-April, despite drawing much publicity, would result in only a very minor production decline. However larger concerns over wheat quality are justified, as the higher moisture content will increase likelihood of sprouting and degrade appearance. Area year-to-year is relatively constant, with the possible exception of a minor decline of rainfed area of Punjab and Haryana.
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| Jun 29 2001 | Indian Monsoon Arrives About 10 Days Early, |
The southwest monsoon, which provides 80 percent of Indias annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops (rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, soybeans), continues to run a week to 10 days ahead of normal. By June 18, it had covered most of India except parts of the northwest. Good soil moisture is aiding tillage and planting operations. Heavy rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, have alleviated drought in this region.
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| Jul 12 2001 | Indian Monsoon Leaves Southeast Dry |
The southwest monsoon, which provides 80 percent of Indias annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops (rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, soybeans), has weakened over the southeast area of the subcontinent. After an excellent mid-June performance, monsoon activity dwindled in central and peninsular India during the week ending June 27. The areas most affected are southern growing areas of rice, cotton, and groundnuts. However, excellent growing conditions in other producing regions are expected mostly offset the effects of this dryness.
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| Aug 1 2001 | Weakened Monsoon Diminishes Peanut Prospects |
The southwest monsoon, which provides 80 percent of Indias annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops (rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, soybeans), has weakened over much of the subcontinent's interior. After an excellent mid-June performance, monsoon activity dwindled in central and far western India during the week ending July 18. This area is home to production of all major kharif crops. For the week ending July 18 monsoon activity diminished with only 14 of 35 weather subdivisions recording normal or above normal rainfall, compared with 22 subdivisions in the previous week. Precipitation was significantly below normal in West Madhya Pradesh, the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, most parts of Andhra Pradesh, North Interior Karnataka and Kerala. Orissa continued to receive heavy rains, worsening the flood situation, but minimal impact on the state's overall production is anticipated.
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| Aug 9 2001 | Monsoon Season Midway Point Summary |
The southwest monsoon provides 80 percent of Indias annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops, including rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, and soybeans. As of early August, the monsoon is half over for this season. A comparison of precipitation, this season versus last, shows overall less rainfall as of August 1, but the timing and distribution appear better for agriculture production particularly in the central-western states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. These states experienced drought conditions during the previous two years. If a good kharif crop is to be harvested, consistent rains will be needed during the second half of the monsoon.
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| Aug 14 2001 | India Cotton Conditions Improving |
India's cotton production for 2001/02 is estimated at 12.5 million bales, up from 10.9 million last year. The 2001 monsoon season has brought timely and well-distributed rain to most cotton growing regions. Late-May and June rainfall provided good seeding conditions, which fostered a 6 percent jump in area to 8.66 million hectares this season.
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| Nov 2 2001 | Winter Grain Planting Conditions in Pakistan: |
Current Conditions Summary:
Punjab Pakistan enters the winter wheat season with normal autumn rainfall accumulation. Sindh Pakistan remains dry.
Good Start to Winter Grain Season in Punjab
Pakistan has experienced dry conditions for three years. This dryness has only impacted mostly the rainfed field crop production. The majority of Pakistan winter wheat is grown on irrigated land. The majority of irrigation supplies come from a limited number of large reservoirs, the main reservoir is recharged by the Indus River inflow. In contrast, production capacity of pasture land, which is strictly rainfed, has been severely impacted by the drought. Pakistan's winter grain crop is typically planted from October through November depending upon summer crop harvesting and, more importantly, on soil moisture conditions at planting time. The majority of the winter grain crop is produced in the two provinces of Punjab and Sindh. The Punjab typically produces over 80 percent of the total winter grain crop including wheat. Current analysis of Pakistan's crop areas indicated low irrigation reserves and low soil moisture conditions in the Sindh. The situation is more positive in the Punjab. Though reservoir levels remain low, the impact of this will become more apparent later in the season. However, the planting of Punjab's winter crops has benefited with the precipitation during the last two months. Cumulative precipitation in the Sindh appears to be the lowest in the past several years, with temperatures averaging about normal. In the Punjab, cumulative precipitation for Pakistan's field crops for the time period of September 1 through November 1 show the agricultural zone at 96 percent of the long-term normal. During 2000 for the same time period this area received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation.
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| Dec 12 2001 | Pakistan: Dry Conditions in Winter Grain Areas |
Pakistan's winter wheat season begins with below-normal autumn rainfall accumulation in the Punjab. The Sindh remains dry. However, prospects for the winter grain season will depend heavily upon winter snows in the Indus river basin, the key source of irrigation water.
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| Feb 8 2002 | Indian Rabi Wheat: Generally Favorable Conditions |
The new Indian wheat crop, planted in November 2001, has benefited from generally favorable weather. India's wheat production outlook is generally favorable, although the Madhya Pradesh area needs rain. The India wheat crop will be harvested in late April. The central wheat producing areas of Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Uttar Pradesh, and all of the minor southern producing areas had sufficient rainfall for crop establishment, and the breadbasket region of Punjab and Haryana had adequate irrigation supplies.
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| Feb 11 2002 | Pakistan Winter Wheat: Dry Conditions Trim Output |
The 2002/03 Pakistan wheat crop, planted in November 2001, is suffering from dry conditions in nearly all growing regions. Monsoon rainfall improved this past season compared to the last two years, but the rains did not provide sufficient precipitation to recharge irrigation supplies or to sustain the crop into the flowering stage (set to occur later this month). The continued dry spell is resulting in low soil moisture levels in the rainfed areas, and is beginning to stress the crop in its early growing stages. However, the majority of wheat is grown under irrigated conditions, with only 10 to 15 percent of the crop completely dependent on rainfall.
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| Apr 1 2002 | India: Winter Wheat Conditions Positive |
Late-season conditions are creating an excellent finish for India's wheat crop. Gradually warming March temperatures and light showers followed the ideal, seasonally cooler February temperatures and significant rains. Analysis of satellite data supports this assessment showing increased vegetation health and vigor during the critical flowering stages.
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| Jun 13 2002 | India and Pakistan: Agriculture in Kashmir and Surrounding Regions |
Increasing tensions in South Asia between neighboring Pakistan and India pose several economic and security threats to the region. This report discusses agricultural production in the region that could be at risk in a conflict between these two nations. India has record grain stocks which may help that nation deal with localized disruption of food supply caused by a border conflict. In Pakistan, more agricultural production is at risk in a border conflict with India.
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| Jul 23 2002 | Kharif Rice Areas Go Dry |
The India monsoon has weakened after a relatively good start. Dryness now affects a large portion of the country. Currently the spatial pattern of the weak monsoon appears to be mainly impacting rice production regions. The south-west monsoon is critical as approximately 86 percent of total rice production is dependent on the monsoon rains. If dry conditions continue this year's fall rice harvest prospects will be reduced. Planting has been delayed in some areas and a portion of the planted crop is experiencing moisture stress. Traditionally irrigated rice states such as Punjab, Haryana and portions of Uttar Pradesh where irrigation capacity is most available are facing problems with lack of irrigation recharge, and higher plant water requirements from sunny conditions and accompanying above normal temperatures.
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| Aug 13 2002 | 2002/03 Cotton Area And Production for India Expected |
The Indian cotton area for the 2002/03 season depends on several factors, with domestic cotton price playing the most crucial role with in-country competing crops prices such as corn and rice affecting area to a lesser extend. Domestic and financial conditions also influence cotton area along with government policies and weather. Low farm producer prices for the October to March 2001/02 period have shaped farmer planting decision resulting in a drop in planted area for 2002/03. A very strong direct relationship exists between cotton area and the farm producer prices for the previous six months prior to planting in April in the Northern cotton zone and extends southern as planting continues (See Graph). The price line on the graph shows an average for each six month period beginning in 1991/92. During the first six months (October 2001 to March 2002) of the current marketing year, the price averaged 15 percent below the same period a year earlier.
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| Sep 19 2002 | India: Kharif Rice Suffered Due to Late Monsoon |
The spatial pattern of below average rainfall will affect both the area and yield of India's kharif rice crop. The Indian monsoon weakened after a relatively good start. The monsoon surged again in August, but rainfall mainly occurred in the central portion of the continent and left many rice areas with low soil moisture reserves. Dryness now affects a large portion of the country. The south-west monsoon is critical to the kharif or monsoon-season cropping patterns. Approximately 87 percent of total rice production is grown during the kharif season, and is dependent on the monsoon rains. Planting was delayed in some areas and a large portion of the now-grain-filling crop is experiencing moisture stress. Traditionally irrigated rice states--such as Punjab, Haryana and portions of Uttar Pradesh, where irrigation capacity is most available--face problems with lack of irrigation recharge. They also face higher plant water requirements from sunny conditions and accompanying above normal temperatures.
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| Aug 5 2003 | India: Kharif Peanut Production Improves |
The southwest monsoon, which provides 80 percent of Indias annual precipitation and is critical to the development of its major crops (rice, coarse grains, cotton, peanuts, soybeans), is much improved over last year. This season the 2003 Indian monsoon rains arrived after a worrisome delay. Monsoon rainfall amounts this season are much improved over last, with only a few areas significantly below normal. The south-west monsoon is critical as the majority of India's total peanut production is dependent on the monsoon rains. One of the rainfall deficit areas is in the peanut growing state of Andhra Pradesh.
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| Nov 19 2003 | India: 2003/04 Rapeseed Production Increased |
As of November 12, 2003, USDA forecasts India's 2003/04 rapeseed production at 5.8 million tons, up 0.3 million or 5 percent from last month, and up 2.2 million or 38 percent from last year. The current 2003/04 India rapeseed area forecast is 6.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 2.0 million or 42 percent from last year.
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| Nov 19 2003 | India: 2003/04 Rice Harvest Makes Way for Rabi Season Crops |
As of November 12, 2003, USDA forecasts India's 2003/04 rice crop at 89.0 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 13.3 million or 18 percent from last year. The current 2003/04 India rice area forecast is 44.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 4.0 million or 10 percent from last year. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the 2003 Southwest Monsoon favorable, as the IMD determined that India received 102 percent of normal precipitation for the period June 1 through September 30, 2003.
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| Apr 30 2004 | India: 2003/04 Rabi Crop Assessment |
Foreign Agricultural Service agricultural analysts from Washington, DC and New Delhi traveled through areas of central, southern, and western regions of India, which are important the rabi crop production. FAS staff assessed crop conditions and met with industry and government leaders in the agricultural states of Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Numerous observations were made in many of the important rabi growing states of India. The accompanying map shows observation locations mapped onto a composite satellite imagery using a Geographic Information System (GIS).
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| Apr 18 2005 | India Rapeseed Positive Field Conditions |
Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service traveled to the states of Haryana and Rajasthan in March 2005. The Indian rapeseed crop is grown during the winter or Rabi season. The Indian rapeseed crop, planted in November 2004, has benefited from seasonably favorable weather. The mostly rainfed crops in Rajasthan and Haryana produce one half of India 's rapeseed. The majority of the rapeseed will be harvested in late March into April and corresponds to the USDA Marketing Year (MY) 2004/05.
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| Apr 15 2005 | Indian Cotton Production Forecast at a Record 18 million Bales |
Could India surpass the United States as the second largest cotton producer behind China? Both the United States and India are forecast to produce record cotton crops in 2004/05 with 23.1 million and 18 million bales respectively.
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| Apr 14 2005 | India Wheat Positive Field Conditions |
Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service traveled to the states of Punjab and Haryana in March 2005. The Indian wheat crop, planted in November 2004, has benefited from seasonably favorable weather. The majority of the wheat will be harvested in late April through early May and corresponds to the USDA Marketing Year (MY) 2005/06.
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