| Sep 22 2023 | Canada In-Season Update for MY 2023/24, from the Peace River Valley, Alberta |
Dry conditions returned to the Canadian Prairies during the summer of 2023. Much of the
region received limited rainfall, particularly during critical crop development stages in midJune through July (see Figure 1). This included several areas in the southern reaches of
the Prairies which experienced some of the driest conditions in the last 40 years (see
Figure 2). As crops reached maturity near the end of July, yield-reducing Extreme and
Exceptional drought, as indicated by the Canadian Drought Monitor, had enveloped most
of southern Alberta, and much of southwestern Saskatchewan, the major durum wheatgrowing area (see Figure 3). Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) analysis at the beginning of August indicated widespread, below-average
vegetation health throughout the agricultural areas of the Prairie provinces (see Figure
4). Yield expectations are below-average for the major grains and rapeseed crops
predominately grown in the region.
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| Dec 19 2022 | Canada: Seasonal Summary for MY 2022/23 |
The 2022 agricultural season was substantially improved for Canadian farmers in the
Prairie provinces, as conditions in the region returned to normal or better, following the
disastrous drought of 2021. A year ago, Prairie farmers saw yields at 34 percent below
the 5-year average for major grains and oilseeds. Yields in the region rebounded this year
and were above-average for all of these crops.
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| Aug 22 2022 | Canada Mid-Season Update from the Prairies for MY 2022/23 |
Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and FAS Ottawa conducted
crop assessment travel in Saskatchewan and Alberta during the last week of July 2022.
The trip included visits with several farmers throughout the region and attendance at the
2022 Saskatchewan Crop Diagnostic School in Swift Current, Saskatchewan. Both
farmers and government officials reported a positive outlook for marketing year (MY)
2022/23 field crops.
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| Dec 13 2021 | Canada: Seasonal Summary for MY 2021/22 |
The marketing year (MY) 2021/22 brought substantial challenges for Canadian farmers
in the Prairie Provinces, as remarkable heat and drought devastated crops in the grain
and rapeseed growing regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Yields for
rapeseed (-40 percent), wheat (-32 percent), barley (-38 percent), and oats (-33 percent),
all primarily grown in the Prairies, are notably well-below their 5-year averages. Farmers
in Central Canada, however, benefited from warm temperatures and abundant rainfall
which boosted corn and soybean yields, particularly in southern Ontario. Corn yield is
estimated to be the second highest on record, and soybean yield is expected to be above
average.
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| Mar 9 2021 | Canada: Outlook for MY2021/22 and Seasonal Summary for 2020/21 |
Market Year 2021/22 Outlook
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) forecasts area seeded for feed grains and
oilseeds to increase due to tight carry-over stocks and strong prices, particularly for
rapeseed, soybeans and barley. Despite positive prices and tight carry-over stocks, area
for oats is expected to decrease, yielding to more profitable crops. Corn area is expected
to decrease due to lower prices and preference for more profitable oilseeds.
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| Sep 29 2020 | Canada: Record Wheat Yield, with favorable conditions for other crops in 2020/21 |
Favorable weather conditions during the growing season have led to above-average
estimated yields across the board for major field crops, and solid expectations for
production. USDA estimates wheat yield at a record 3.64 metric tons per hectare (t/ha).
Rapeseed yield is estimated at 2.35 t/ha, up 2 percent over last year. Corn and soybean
yields are also up 8.3 and 12.7 percent, respectively, over 2019/20. Yield estimates,
year-to-year changes, and records for four of Canada’s largest field crops, representing
both of Canada’s major agricultural regions (the Prairies and Central Canada), are given
in Figure 1. The Prairies saw warm temperatures throughout the summer and generally
adequate precipitation (Figure 2). At the extremes, drier conditions developed in
southern Saskatchewan and southeast Manitoba, while excessive rainfall was observed
in parts of southwestern and northern Manitoba and northern Alberta. The southeastern
portion of Central Canada (Ontario and Quebec), where most of Canada's corn and
soybeans are grown, has been drier over the summer, though periodic rains in mid-July
and early August aleviated some of the dryness. Crop conditions here have been locally
reported as average to above-average, indicating negligible effects of dryness on crop
development in the regions.
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| Jul 20 2018 | Canada: 2018/19 Early Season Conditions |
Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and FAS Ottawa conducted crop-assessment travel in Ontario Canada the last week of June, meeting with government officials, cooperatives, farmers and attending a regional farmer breakfast with representatives from major agribusinesses. The trip also included a visit to the largest port in Ontario (Hamilton Port) and the 8th largest Co-op in Canada (Hensall Cooperative), to gather market intelligence on broader production and trade issues.
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| Aug 16 2017 | An Atypical Canadian Summer: Hot and Dry in the Prairies, Cool and Wet in the East |
Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) conducted crop-assessment travel in Canada in July, meeting with farmers, cooperatives, non-profit organizations and government officials. The team examined the shifting agricultural patterns in Canada and assessed the potential crop-production impacts of the heat and dryness in the Canadian Prairies and the cool, wet weather in Eastern Canada (see Figure 1). The National Geospatial Intelligence Agency’s MAGE mobile application was used to collect field data that will enable FAS analysts to create an in-season crop mask to improve area-estimation methods.
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| Jun 24 2016 | Canada Rapeseed: 2016/17 Area Harvested forecast to Drop |
USDA forecasts 2016/17 area harvested for Canada rapeseed at 7.7million hectares, down 4.3 percent from last year. The decrease is attributed to farmers switching to crops with higher net returns, such as pulses, and crop rotation. According to Statistics Canada, seeded area in Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to drop by 2.6 and 7.8 percent respectively from last year. Manitoba is forecast to plant the same amount as last year.
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| Sep 21 2015 | Canada: 2015/16 Wheat Production Forecast Drops to Down 15 Percent from 2014/15 |
USDA forecasts total Canadian wheat production at 25.0 million metric tons (MMT), down 5.67 percent from the previous forecast, and down nearly 15 percent from 2014 because of adverse growing conditions. Harvested area is estimated at 9.6 million hectares, unchanged from the previous month, still up 1.5 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.6 tons per hectare (MT/Ha) down 5.8 percent from the previous month and down 16 percent from last year.
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| Jun 12 2015 | Canada: 2015/16 Record Soybean Production |
In its May 12 estimate, USDA forecast 2015/16 Canada soybean production at 6.20 million metric tons, up nearly 2.50 percent from 2014, and a new record. Yield is forecast to reach 2.88 tons per hectare, up 6.52 percent from last year and in line with trend. Soybean area is forecast to contract by 4 percent from a year ago and harvested area is expected at 2.150 million hectares.
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| Sep 27 2013 | Canada: Record Soybean Harvested Area |
USDA forecasts 2013/14 Canada soybean production at 5.15 million metric tons, up nearly 4.5 percent from previous year. Area is forecast at a record 1.8 million hectares, up 7.8 percent from previous year. The nearly 8 percent increase in area harvested is due to good prices, short-season varieties, and a western expansion of area seeded into Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, yield is forecast at trend levels and down nearly 3 percent from 2012.
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| Aug 26 2013 | Canada Wheat Production Forecast at a 15-Year Record |
Sufficient precipitations coupled with normal temperatures have advanced crop maturation despite the late start to the planting season. Warmer temperatures in the latter part of June and July promoted flowering throughout the western prairies. Satellite-derived analyses using MODIS/NDVI show crop development slightly higher than last year but above the 5-year average and above the record yields in 2011.
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| Aug 30 2012 | Canada: 2012/13 Durum Seeded Area Expands. |
The USDA estimates 2012/13 Canada durum area will reach 1.80 million hectares, up 13 percent from last year; the increase is due to favorable planting weather. Production is forecast to reach 4.3 million tons, up 0.1 million or up about 2.4 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 2.4 tons per hectare, similar to the 10-year trend yield, but down about 8 percent from 2011. Statistics Canada’s July 2012 Estimates of Production of Principal Field Crops released in late August estimates that farmers would expand planted area by 13 percent from last year due to favorable weather.
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| Jul 13 2012 | Canada: 2012/13 Canola Seeded Area Forecast at a Record High |
The USDA estimates 2012/13 Canada rapeseed area at 8.5 million hectares, up 0.47 million or 5.8 percent from last month; the upward revision is due to good prices and favorable planting weather. Production is forecast to reach 16.30 million tons, up 0.90 million or 5.8% from last year and up 2.14 percent from last year. Yield is forecast to be average. Statistics Canada's 2012 Preliminary Estimates of Principal Field Crop Areas released in late June estimates that farmers would expand planted area by 13% from last year due to favorable prices. Saskatchewan farmers, which produce 50 percent of total production, are likely to expand area seeded by nearly 13.5% from last year. Whereas Manitoba farmers, which produces 28 percent of total production, are expect to seed to pre-flood levels 1.4 mH - or up 28% from last year.
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| Dec 22 2010 | Global Durum Output Falls in 2010/11 Marketing Year |
World durum production for the 2010/11 marketing year is estimated at 3.0 million metric tons, 12 percent lower than 2009/10, largely because of a decline in Canada. A lower price forecast and difficult planting conditions reduced planting conditions. Output in North Africa was lower than the previous year following a bumper crop in 2009/10. European Union production is estimated down nearly 2 percent with increases in France and Italy more than offset by declines in Spain and Greece. Production in the United States is also estimated down nearly 2 percent on reduced yield. Conditions for the Middle East were generally favorable, where durum wheat varieties showed greater tolerance to a yellow rust epidemic than did bread wheat varieties.
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| Jul 29 2010 | Drop in Acreage Impacting Canada Wheat Production |
USDA forecasts Canadian wheat production to reach 20.5 million metric tons, down 6 million metric tons from last month. This 16 percent drop is due to a lower seeded area and higher than normal abandonment rate in the main wheat producing areas of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta.
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| Jul 29 2010 | Wet Spring Prevents Record Canadian Canola Planting |
Canadian prairie farmers had been planning to plant large areas to canola (rapeseed) this season; however, continuous rainfall through the end of the planting window limited their opportunities. With its March planting intentions report, Statistics Canada forecast that farmers would plant a record 6.8 million hectares. When Statistics Canada carried out their farm survey from May 25 to June 3 for the Preliminary Estimates of Field Crops Areas report, enthusiasm for the crop had increased and the forecast area increased to 7.2 million hectares. By June 20, however, the planting window was closed and many farmers, especially in northeast Saskatchewan where much of the canola is typically grown, had been unable to sow. Using reports from provincial sources on percent planted, International Production Assessment Division/FAS/USDA estimates Canada's canola planted area to be 5.8 million hectares, just 80 percent of Stats Canada's June estimate.
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| Dec 16 2009 | Global Durum Output Higher for Second Consecutive Year |
World production of durum has increased for the second consecutive year estimated at 31.9 million tons for 2009/10, up 2.3 million tons from 2008/09 and up 5.7 million tons from 2007/08. This figure, however, is still below the record output reached in 2004/05 at 33.3 million tons.
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| Feb 2 2009 | Wheat Production Situation January 2009 |
In September of 2008 FOB Gulf prices for wheat were down slightly from prices in 2007, while prices for soybeans and corn were much higher, indicating the incentives to plant wheat for the 2009/10 crop have diminished compared to a year ago. Additionally, many market watchers have been reporting high input prices and lower availability of credit. With continuing low stock levels and fairly high prices compared to previous years, there are still incentives for Northern Hemisphere farmers to produce wheat, although they are less compelling than a year ago.
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| Jul 25 2006 | Canada Rapeseed Update |
The USDA July currently forecasts an increase in production of Canada's 2006/07 rapeseed crop to 8.10 million tons, up from 7.60 million tons last month, but down from last year's record production. While yield has remained unchanged from last month, estimated production has increased due to an increase in planted area.
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| Aug 24 2005 | Canada Crop Conditions: Variable across the Prairies |
Of most concern in Canadian agriculture this growing season has been excessive moisture across the Prairies, especially in southern Manitoba, southwestern Alberta, and in scattered areas across Saskatchewan. Of all the provinces, Manitoba has suffered the most; flooding has contributed to delayed planting,a decrease in total planted area, and a likely reduction in crop yield.
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| May 15 2000 | Canadian Prairie Provinces Dry as Planting Begins |
The Canadian prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba had a very dry winter and early spring. There was relatively little snowfall over the winter. The all-important spring rainfall period usually starts around the beginning of May, and then rains again increase sharply around the second week in May. This year the rain that should have come at the beginning of May is late, and producers are warning that unless the rains come soon some regions will not have sufficient topsoil moisture for seed germination. Many areas report that because of moisture deficits at the beginning of this season, steady rainfall throughout the rest of the season will be essential for a good crop.
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| Jul 21 2000 | Canadian Corn and Soybean Prospects Falter in Cool, Wet Conditions |
Corn production in 2000/01 is estimated at 9.0 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month and down 0.1 million from last year. Area fell from 1.3 million hectares last month to a still-record level of 1.2 million this month. The strong boost in area results from greater demand for feed and industrial use. Area would likely have been higher, but excessive rainfall throughout the spring in Ontario and Quebec, where the largest amount of corn is grown, prevented fieldwork early in the season. As a result, many farmers opted to plant soybeans because of the shorter required growing season. Soybean production is estimated at a record 3.0 million tons in the USDAs first 2000/01 forecast, up 0.2 million tons from last year. Area rose to a record 1.1 million hectares, up 0.1 million hectares from both last year and Statistic Canadas March forecast. While corn and soybean crops in the nearby American Midwest are doing well, further north in Canada excessive rain and cool temperatures have delayed both crops and may hurt yield and quality.
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| May 2 2001 | Canada: Lower Rapeseed (Canola) Area Likely in 2001/02 |
Uncertain price expectations, soaring fuel and fertilizer costs, and less-than-ideal early planting conditions will depress sown area for many Canadian crops, especially canola.
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| Jan 25 2002 | Dry Conditions Persist on the Canadian Prairie |
Winter has brought no drought relief to farmers on the Canadian Prairie. The 2001 drought that cut wheat production to levels not seen since 1988 has not abated, and pastures are reportedly in the worst condition since the 1930's. The current dry conditions started during the winter of 2000, and the situation has only worsened over the last year.
Satellite image composites of the Canadian Prairie in the spring and fall of 2001 show that vegetation conditions were below normal before and after the summer growing season. A PECAD map of precipitation since September of 2001 shows large expanses of dryness in Eastern Alberta, and pockets of dryness in Saskatchewan. Considering the poor state of prairie pastures in September, it can be assumed that the continued lack of precipitation has caused further deterioration. A PECAD map of modeled surface moisture suggests that in many places there may not be adequate moisture in the soil to plant summer crops, such as wheat and canola. PECAD will be monitoring this situation closely.
Additionally, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada maintains a web page titled Drought Watch on the Prairies, with links to maps of precipitation and pasture conditions.
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| Apr 18 2002 | Canada: Rapeseed Production May Go Higher |
Canadian rapeseed production may rebound in 2002/03 due to increased plantings and more normal yields, compared to the 2001/02 season.
Agriculture Canada forecast harvested area to increase 5 percent for 2002/03 to 4.1 million hectares in its April 4 report. The main reason for increased plantings is more favorable prices. Winnipeg Commodity Exchange nearby futures prices in late March 2002 were around C$335 per ton, a large improvement over the C$280 per ton that was available in March 2001. Prices increased rapidly in July and August of 2001, allowing farmers to market their 2001/02 crop at improved prices. The futures market indicates that commodity prices are expected to remain about the same for the 2002/03 crop. November 2002 canola futures in early April have been around C$330 per ton. Current prices will not be as much of an incentive to plant as the C$370 per ton which induced high area levels in 1998 and 1999 when 5.4 and 5.5 million hectares of rapeseed were harvested respectively.
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| Jun 20 2002 | Canada: Widespread Rainfall Arrives on the Prairie |
Widespread rainfall arrived on the Canadian Prairie last week, providing much-needed moisture to recently planted summer crops, such as wheat, barley, oats, and canola. Indications are that the precipitation was very timely, since the moisture was needed for seeds to germinate. Last year saw little precipitation during the growing season, which caused yields to be well below average. Barley production in 2001 was 11.4 million tons, down 18 percent from a year earlier. Wheat production was 21.3 million tons, down 26 percent.
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| Sep 13 2002 | Canada: Prairie Drought Slashes Production |
Canadian wheat production is forecast to be 15.4 million tons in 2002, down nearly 5.2 million from last year. This is the second year of drought on the prairie, and production has sunk well below the average of 26.4 million tons from the years 1996-2000. Barley production is forecast to be 7.9 million tons, nearly 3.0 million tons less than last year. This is also well below the average from 1996-2000, when nearly 13.7 million tons of barley were harvested annually. Since this is the second year of drought, pastures have been severely affected, and many barley producers elected to abandon or bale their crop for silage (livestock feed) rather than attempt to thresh it for grain. Even in a typical year, over 10 percent of the seeded barley area is baled; this year, the amount is closer to 30 percent.
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| Jul 14 2003 | Canada: Crop Condition Update |
Wheat production is forecast to be 25.0 million tons in 2003, up 1.0 million from last month, and up 59 percent from 15.7 million tons in 2002. Wheat area is estimated to be 10.4 million hectares, based on the June planted area estimate published by Statistics Canada, and assuming between 1 and 2 percent abandonment (compared to 19 percent last year). Barley production is forecast to be 14.0 million tons this year, up 0.5 million from last month, and up 92 percent from 7.3 million tons last year. Barley area is estimated to be 4.7 million hectares, assuming 92 percent is harvested for grain (compared to 64 percent last year). Wheat and barley yields are forecast to improve from last month based on generally good conditions across much of the prairie
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| Sep 12 2003 | Canada: Third Year of Low Yields on the Prairie |
Relief from the two-year drought seemed to arrive last fall on the Canadian prairie, when abundant rainfall replenished depleted soil moisture. Additional precipitation, in the form of winter snowfall, created favorable conditions for spring planting. Cold temperatures and wetness delayed field work in May, but most parts of the prairie were in good condition by mid-June. In general, the weather during July and August was windy, hot, and dry, which caused crop conditions to steadily deteriorate. Scattered showers sustained some fields, but soil moisture reserves were depleted after two years of drought, and many fields did not achieve their potential this year. Aided by the dry weather in August, the pace of the cereal and rapeseed (canola) harvest has been very rapid.
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| Mar 22 2004 | Canada: Spring Preview |
FAS analysis suggests that canola area will increase at the expense of barley, oats, and wheat. For the past three years, farmers on the Canadian prairie have generally been responsive to projected net returns, including price signals, when making decisions about which major grain and oilseed crops to plant. For the period 2001 to 2003, there was a generally a strong positive correlation between projected net returns and planted area for spring wheat (1 CWRS and 2 CWRS classes), barley (1 CW), oats (3 CW), and to a lesser extent durum wheat (1 CWAD) and rapeseed [canola] (1 CAN). Analysis showed that farmers responded to an increase in projected net returns by increasing planted area, and by decreasing planted area in response to a decrease in projected net returns. Projected net returns in this analysis were a function of total variable costs (seed, fertilizer, chemicals, fuel, repairs, crop insurance, interest, and other costs), projected yield, and projected price. Yields were average for the region, and prices were forecast prior to planting. Wheat prices were based on the Pool Return Outlook given by the Canadian Wheat Board monopsony.
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